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Q1 GDP Cut To -0.6% At Goldman, -0.8% At JPMorgan
Update: JPM just jumped on the bandwagon and cut Q1 GDP to -0.8% from -0.4%. Don't worry: it snowed.
The US "recovery" is starting to feel more and more recessionary by the day. As we warned after we reported the trade deficit, it was only a matter of time before the Q1 GDP cuts came. And come they did, first from Barclays, and now from Goldman, which just doubled its GDP forecast loss for the past quarter from -0.3% to -0.6%.
BOTTOM LINE: The March trade deficit was roughly in line with consensus expectations, narrowing from February. However, imports were substantially higher than the Commerce Department had assumed in its initial estimate for Q1 GDP. We reduced our Q1 past-quarter tracking by three-tenths to -0.6%.
MAIN POINTS:
1. The March trade deficit narrowed to $40.4bn (vs. consensus -$40.0bn), from a revised $41.9bn in February. The real petroleum balance narrowed (+$0.6bn to -$11.3bn), while the real ex-petroleum balance widened (-$0.8bn to -$42.4bn). Exports rose 2.1%, more than reversing their February decline, while imports rose 1.1%. The 10.8% increase in food & beverage imports appears to have been driven by the jump in agricultural import prices already released for the month. By country, the large drop in seasonally-adjusted exports to China which occurred in January and February stabilized in March.
2. Both imports and exports were higher than the Commerce Department assumed in their initial estimate for Q1 GDP growth. However, imports exceeded their assumption by a significantly larger margin, pushing our Q1 past-quarter GDP tracking estimate down by three-tenths to -0.6%.
Also, keep in mind that as we explained before, Q1 GDP was boosted around 1% by the forced spending "benefit" of Obamacare: a GDP contribution that will no longer be there. Which means that either normalized Q1 GDP is approaching -2%, or Q2 GDP is about to be whacked by the same amount. Pick your poison. One thing is certain - anyone hoping that 2014 is the year in which the US economy finally achieved "escape velocity" will have to drink the humiliation under the table as they repeat the mantra of apologists everywhere: "snow.... snow.... snow...."
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-.6%? Thats crazy. When it comes in at -.5%, it will be (and say it with me): "BETTER THAN EXPECTED"
shoot, you beat me to it
It doesn't matter if the number is positive or negative, it's still trumpeted as GROWTH in economic-speak. "The economy grew at a robust negative zero point six percent in the first quarter".
All together now: "Beating expectations ALL the way down."
Hey, that's my line.
It may be your line, but it's everyone's problem who isn't in the .01%
...and it's still amazing to me how many people still do not get it.
What do you mean they will say. Then they say, "look, we now have an 85'' flat screen, so life is better"
Stupid fucks, anyone remember the "wall screens" from "Fahrenheit 451"?
It's a dumbass full blown credit economy. I still hear ppl talking about "investing" in housing, or a condo. Just amazes me how dumb ppl are not seeing the real destruction in our faces - a debt dependant economy that requires phantom assets to be blown up in order to attract more leverage. The entire economy is a fucking farce.
So true... I wonder if Goldman Sachs will issue me a line of credit on my fart collection?
/snark
I just bought a copy of "Fahrenheit 451"....$7.50 on Amazon. Some good parallels with today in that movie.
Not no mo
Yes, yes, yes, eCONomics is not a science it's con, period.
ZIRP in nominal, made-up bullshit terms, NIRP in real terms...
An so it shall be as long as the criminals are in charge.
Full "faith and credit" bitchez...
Let me be clear, our economy is growing at -.6% and that is change we can believe in.
Property Taxes in our town just went WAY up....and water bill went up 25% last year alone. at least gas and food are not inflating.
this ought to IGNITE the economy....
/s
See Mish for BLS birth/death adjustment accounting for 285000 jobs in April. Its all BS.
Are you saying they are just BLS'ing us again?
We're all being BLS'ed here.
This is a friggin outright recession....not a surprise relative to the Great Depression..."only milder" seems a tough nut to sell to Team America World Police here.
Of course all I want is the "action shot." Detroit wasn't good enough for me. I want Rhode Island next.
The economy was SNOWBLIND from all the financial media's and politician's SNOWJOBS
Black Sabbath - Snow Blind
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHal84S_XkI
Ace Frehley - Snow Blind
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jX6UlUqLlxY
Styx - Snow Blind
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CSXTu-WllZ8
Snowblind....The Japanese Boy Group. (Sorry....just TOO damn funny !! :)P )
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Gof02mjD80
And the (FAULTY) accepted definition of a Recession is two consective quarters of negative GDP.
So - in reality - we (except for Bankers and the 1%) never left the "Great Recession" before celebrating the next one.
"imports exceeded their assumption by a significantly larger margin"
That's because all we manufacture, is debt.
FRACK MY ASS!
And let's not forget that OIL IMPORTS are DOWN bigtime!
so add that again and you'll know how well the economy did as a hole compaired to the good old days...
The economy is a hole indeed.
Hells yea! Today has to be a big day then. if I follow the pattern (eg, it's Tuesday, right?).
No POMO today, though. That's the curve to catch the blind it's Tuesday' buyers offside and provide the selling pressure necessary to set up the next ramp.
Gross domestic production decreases as gross domestic theft increases.
Think like math.
Let's be clear about this. We have been in a depression since 2000 and we haven't recovered. Like any economic cycle we have had moments where things seem a little better, but that doesn't change the fact that we are still in a depression. Snap and gubermint housing combined with a healthy dose of propaganda does a lot to hide that fact.
Government cheese must be helping, maybe I will have to find a way to get some cheddar.
As it is, not gas is normally in the $3.65 range, a quick trip to the grocery store is $100 bucks, and everything and anything is costing more.
We have cut down on and will keep cutting down until dollar is dead. No CCs, no more debt taken on and speeding up our paying off existing debt (mortgage).
Fuck em, they inflation, I work on giving them deflation.
To reinforce, WE create the debt that enslaves us. There is no magic money at the bank that they lend to you. WE create the debt and pay the banks for that privilege.
So the power rests with US to end this fractional reserve debt based currency scam.
pods
Exacly what my wife and I are doing. Bravo. I think the Fed will win on inflation, however. It's a good fight though, keep it up.
I gave no consent for the debt they claim on my future labor. Fuck em. The majority of the debt is a fraud.
Only one "rule" applies now.
When fraud is the status quo, possession is the law.
No disagreement with the debt but when the rule of law is being voided as we speak then what? You better have a good plan.
Ask anyone. I have been long sharecropping, black markets, and a dependable tribe for quite some time.
Same as it ever was...
"When fraud is the status quo, possession is the law."
But you do not mean also that when honesty is the status quo that possesion is not the law?
...The phrase is just a little blurry when you view it from a different angle. It seems to fail the all-angles test.
-2%...
I wonder how it will look when the bad times return...
7 good years... 7 bad years... and oh yeah... the last 7 where the good years if you where wondering...
Go figure how bad the next 7 will be.
do I hear .7 do I hear .7.......now .8? do I hear .8?
Looks like JPM gave you 0.8...now the question is .9, or god forbid a whole percent.
betcha it hits 1.5..y takers?
ok...okk... now we have .8, do I hear 1? do I hear 1? you in the corner, UBS, do I hear 1? I have 1, now lookling for 1.2? do I hear 1.2?
It was the best of times (stock market)....It was the worst of times (GDP).....
Even the story does'nt matter. "Imports grew at an annualized seasonally unadjusted rate of 40% however this was mitigated by the neighbor's dog shitting on everybody's lawn for the month of March. Expect April's numbers to improve....."
Locally (my part of FL anyway), things are significantly better and starting to grow again. However, I think most of that growth is coming from stealing capital/business from blue states.
But F*ck'em.
No inheritance or property tax in FL. Many moving there now. The game has been about wealth preservation for quite some time now.
What about "Federal" inheritance tax? That would still apply in Fl (right? - I'm by no means a tax expert).
No one gets away from the Feds, but as an example, the inheritance tax in the state of Maine is 30%!!!! Why in the fuck would you keep your wealth there or live there in your later years (unless you really hated your kids).
Or had zero wealth...
You are mistaken there are property taxes in Florida.... my property tax bill on my ranch in Florida was in excess of $4,000.
Depends what part of the state you are in.
IF you look at the numbers coming out of "The Villages" retirement development in the center of the state things look very good. They have tapped into a section of our society that is now becoming extinct. Early boomers that have PENSIONS that are retired and have sold their home up north and want to live out the rest of their lives in a "Disney world" environment. They have discretionary cash to spend. That "market" segment is going to quickly roll off.... give it 5 years max.
Ground water issues (potable water) is going to become a increasing issue in Florida, withdrawals in excess of recharge and salt water intrusion... etc.. not to mention karst features and sink holes.... Having listen to the water management district heads speak at the Florida Water Symposium in Gainsville, the district heads are very much aware of the grim future that awaits Florida.
Basic attitude of retirees if Florida.... Fuck you I've got mine.
If it gets any more negative we might need to start a WWIII somewhere just to keep the sheeple occupied and convince them they need the Banksters + MIC to protect them from evil.
Nah, just launch a new "reality" TV show.
Man, those green shoots must have turned brown and died....just when I was starting to belive too......nigga, don't worry, Obama, he got this!
Not a lot of time left for a Q2 hockey stick GDP save. Hopefully, the weather will improve.
Frankly, does it even matter any more?
Anything that goes against what TPTB is dismissed.
They are going to do what they want to do, regardless of the numbers.
It should be obvious to all that they are hellbent on destroying our economy, and will do whatever it takes.
Only then can they rebuild it into the socialist Utopia they dream about.
ou better not fight back or it's jail time.....http://benswann.com/cecily-mcmillans-gulity-verdict-demonstrates-how-ame...
including this one, all statistics coming from the banksters/govt are lies, propaganda, etc
so why do so many treat such statistics as real/true/accurate/meaningful ?
Because MSM and masses of "economists" relentlessly peddle them as "real/true/accurate/meaningful"?? Punters have no other yardstick to go by...
From Derringer:
QE, on a rolling 12 month basis, is about $1 trillion. The US Economy is about $17 trillion. Therefore you must subtract the amount of QE added back out, which is about 5.9% of the total economy!
In other words with the current GDP "growth" of effectively zero (0.1%) the economy is in fact in deep recession as the actual "growth rate" is currently -5.8%.
Math can be a real bitch.
If you then calculate GDP and CPI correctly, you get to an even lower figure.
Oops...just yesterday and reported by LIESman.
"Economists climb on board the 4 percent bandwagon"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101642225
<--- Fuck Off (FED)
<--- AND DIE (FED)
US GDP falling and recession/depression setting in??
This can only mean a new war.
But they have raised thier projections over 4% for the next quarter.....all is good...pent up demand they think....
Always next quarter?
Poor old Lakshman Achuthan, who pounded the table for recession in Sep. 2011:
This week ECRI emerged from hibernation mode with Lakshman Achuthan's appearance on WSJ Live. Interestingly, the interview includes no reference to ECRI's recession call, instead focusing on whether the winter economic downturn was weather-related or reflective of a cyclical downturn.
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/ECRI-Weekly-Leading-In...
Cold day in hell, bItCHez ...
What about the US jobs data?
Officialdom were telling us last Friday that the good data for jobs proves that the American economy is growing?
Confused or what.
snow snow snow....Bing Crosby and Danny Kaye....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FRgec2LhQ74
if -.8% GDP isn't at least a recession....WTF does it take to qualify??
another quarter
Snowdyke and the Federal Open Meteorological Committee. What a team !!!
GDP was boosted around 1% by the forced spending "benefit" of Obamacare: The whisper number is more than 30% of the Obamacare subscribers have not paid.
DEAD SNOW 1 http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v393/youricarma/Miscellaneous/DeadSnow...
DEAD SNOW 2 vs 1 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0aj0xQqNEU
But not all news is bad: Citigroup Wins Custody Contract From Biggest Sovereign Fund (Where there is always snow) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-05-05/citigroup-wins-custody-de...
The bullshit piles up so deep you need wings to stay to stay above it.
whats wrong with the market?? isnt it tuesday?