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La Nina, The SOI & Glimmers Of Concern In The Ags
Agricultural commodities have been among the best performing assets of the year so far, but, as Diapason Commodities's Sean Corrigan warns, there are starting to be some glimmers of concern.
Via Sean Corrigan's Diapason Commodities,
"China seems to be finding ways to cancel as many shipments as it can...(as we noted here)
As we explained previously,
While apologists of China's collapse have been quick to point out that China's credit collapse would be largely a domestic issue, with little foreign creditor exposure at either the public debt, or private - corporate - debt levels, one thing nobody can deny is that if and when Chinese trade routes grind to a halt, the downstream impacts would be devastating, and spread like wildfire as the offshore supply chain is Ice 9'ed.
And sure enough that is what Reuters reports above is happening.
Long positions have mounted (especially in wheat)
and though few have commented on it - the SOI has swung closer to La Nina than the El Noino threshold...
The Southern Oscillation Index, or SOI, gives an indication of the development and intensity of El Niño or La Niña events in the Pacific Ocean. The SOI is calculated using the pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin.
Sustained negative values of the SOI below −8 often indicate El Niño episodes. These negative values are usually accompanied by sustained warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, a decrease in the strength of the Pacific Trade Winds, and a reduction in winter and spring rainfall over much of eastern Australia and the Top End. You can read more about historical El Niño events and their effect on Australia in the Detailed analysis of past El Niño events.
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 are typical of a La Niña episode. They are associated with stronger Pacific trade winds and warmer sea temperatures to the north of Australia. Waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become cooler during this time. Together these give an increased probability that eastern and northern Australia will be wetter than normal.
Only a cold spring is really helping the bulls just now..."
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Funny how every year there is either an El Nino or La Nina. Like everything else, isn't it time to just call it the new normal?
it's an oscillation in Pacific ocean temps... that has been going on since the ocean was formed. Only an alarmist or ignoramus would make any association with "global warming"...
So physics is out the window? So American of you.
We will Harp it if we have to
Let me summarize the "elite" global warming/climate change agenda:
CO2 Injection
To be brief, as I understand it, this technology works REALLY well at extracting yet MORE oil from old fields (even fields that are shut in), but is UNECONOMICAL due to the lack of ... wait for it ... CO2.
Want to breath new life into the current global economic model? Find a huge source of cheap CO2.
<looks around for a cheap (a.k.a. subsidized) source of CO2/>
Regards,
Cooter
"We will Harp it if we have to" (you rea-ly mean haarp?)
Good. So leave China out of it, they have more than they can handle, no?
Go deal with El Nino, or not.
So what part of cold spring did you not understand? I think he understands physics quite well, as everything oscillates, and that is why the whole global warming, climate change, climate threat, etc. is such bullshit. We oscillate warmer and knucleheads like you claim a new normal, then deny through the cooling, to begin once again on the next upswing with even more fervor.
You're argument against global warming is that we had a cold spring? I don't who is dumber, you or the ten (thus far) who gave you upvotes.
The SOI is down at -35.83 and the 30 day avg falling at 2.76
Also the SOI, while an indicator used, isn't what determines whether we'll have an El Nino/La Nina event. That is solely based on ocean water temps, which currently are on the warm side for the East Pacific. This is indicative of an El Nino event but we are still in what is known as the spring unpredictablility barrier and its near impossible to forcast wheter the warm water transport will be shut off or not. Extremely unlikely we will have a La Nina this year, and normally we have a year or two of false starts to El Nino before the real deal.
Because Global Warming, no seriously the SST models show a strong El Nino forecast for this October. The kelvin wave out of indonesia last month was damn impressive. Talk amongst them junior meteorology enthusiast was possible 1997 event. Parts of the world suffer incredible drought during such events, however they are minimal on the US. Wouldn't care to own slide prone CA real estate right about now.
Ya there are quite a few similarities to the 97 event. You might enjoy this article which compares the wind speed, ocean temp, heat content, etc between 97 and today http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/enso/2014/comparison.shtml
once china shuts its doors, the entire fucking ponzi collapses. Nike, Walmart, et al. are toast and the cascading effect rolls up the entire global economy. Nobody can produce one fucking good in the world without the chinese. It's almost as stoopid as a country relying almost completely on another (or three) for the bulk of their energy req'm. WOARS don't start as a result of such stoopidity. But maybe 6 billion less on the planet was the plan all along and all of this is theatre to get there without one group (MIC) being blamed by history.....
It only gets bitter from here...
History of Demise:
http://www.amazon.com/Merchants-Despair-Environmentalists-Pseudo-Scienti...
It's all about cattle here . Lots of unused fields being cleared off a new fencing
One of the assholefaces that was "grilling" yellen today was extremely concerned about inflation. Specifically he had heard it was possible that food prices could be up as much as 3.5% this year.
http://www.caviarexpress.com/
Looks like deflation. Stupid fucker...3.5 percent...what is he looking at....Main Street food.
Interesting.....
Beluga caviar is protected as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. This law generally prohibits the import/export and interstate sale of listed species and products made from them. The United States banned the importation of beluga caviar from the Caspian Sea basin as of September 30, 2005, and from the Black Sea basin as of October 28, 2005.
No beluga caviar from any country in these basins can be legally imported after these dates. The affected countries include Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Georgia, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Kazakhstan, Romania, Russia, Serbia and Montenegro, Turkey, Turkmenistan, and Ukraine.
"While apologists of China's collapse have been quick to point out that China's credit collapse would be largely a domestic issue..."
2000 "Tech companies have no debt"
2007 "It's confined to subprime"
2014 "It's largely a domestic issue"
lol, good night, lol...
nice bots, laughing to sleep...