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The Next Big Catalyst: East Ukraine May Be Officially Indepedent In Seven Days

Tyler Durden's picture


Update: moments after we posted this, Putin did his best to bring attention to just this matter:


And naturally, since there will be no delay as Kiev does not even bother to discuss the referendum while Donetsk will push on but certainly aware of Putin's distance-providing "reservation", Putin will "sadly" have to accept the referendum results.

* * *

The Geneva de-escalation lasted one day. The latest "Putin de-escalates the OSCE" gambit which served its purpose to send spoos higher by 6 points, lasted minutes. To wit:


And the most "de-escalatory" statement of all:


So much for that particular distraction.

However, focusing on what is actually important and market-moving (or will be with a 4-6 week delay in this rigged, non-discounting, broken market) and what most are ignoring for now, is that as previously reported on several occasions, East Ukraine is about to become the next Crimea, following an indepedence referendum that is set to take place in the self-proclaimed Donetsk people's republic on Sunday May 11.

And as Itar-Tass reported moments ago, the results will be in as soon as aweek from today or May 14 which means Russian troops will be officially in what will then be former east Ukraine by the end of next week.

Most polling stations in east Ukraine’s Donetsk Region are already fully equipped for a local referendum that is expected to determine the regional status on May 11, co-chairman of the government of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic Denis Pushilin told TAR-TASS on Wednesday.


“Ballot papers are being delivered to polling stations, most of which are already equipped properly,” he said, noting that referendum results are planned to be made public within three days.


Pushilin noted that a sociological survey conducted earlier indicated that a referendum turnout may reach no less than 60%, but it will most likely be higher due to latest tragic events in the country.


“Many calls are coming even from Kiev and western Ukraine,” he said. “Now even those who did not believe that we are right begin to understand all the depth of a catastrophe in Ukraine and begin to realize where this may lead to,” Pushilin added.


Pushilin also did not rule out that provocations were possible in the region on the referendum day on May 11. “All can be expected from the Kiev junta,” he added.

What happens then?

Look no further than the Crimea case study:

  1. Donetsk declares independence
  2. Kiev, the west and NATO condemn the results, sternly refuse to accept the outcome, and issue more sanctions against Russian politicians and oligarchs
  3. Newly "independent" Donetsk requests military support from friendly Russia to defend its population, and the Russian tanks roll across the border

And as other regions in east and south Ukraine follow in the Donetsk' footsteps, assuring Russia a land connection to Crimea and cutting off Kiev from the Donbas industrial zones and the Slavyansk shale gas, Putin wins again.

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Wed, 05/07/2014 - 09:16 | 4735512 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

devide... AND CONQUER!!

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 09:19 | 4735526 max2205
max2205's picture

I'll take Detained for $500...

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 09:25 | 4735541 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Papers please.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 09:31 | 4735552 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Putin laughs and the pigeon cries. Putin is pulling it off without even the need for a full invasion. Good job NATO/EU morons!

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 09:42 | 4735592 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

where's the red line currently at?  its been erased and then moved so many times by obama the douche, i cant keep up.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 09:44 | 4735602 Manthong
Manthong's picture

The unnatural born citizen pigeon is in multiple pickles ..  Crimea..  Eastern Ukraine,  China/Viet Nam.. China/Japan.. China/Philippines amongst others..

It's just a good thing he has Obamacare buttoned up, climate disruption under control and the economy humming here at home.

A round of golf sounds in order.


Wed, 05/07/2014 - 09:50 | 4735611 Latina Lover
Latina Lover's picture

Putin is just allowing events to unfold.

The East Ukrainians want nothing to do with the Kiev Junta/IMF.There are a few viral videos in East/South Ukraine circulating that if they leave the Ukraine, they will not have to pay the debts, ending up as slaves to the western banksters.  They understand that their gas bill will more than double, taxes will go up, pensions cut and schools closed if they allow themselves to be dominated by the Kiev Kriminals.


If only Americans had the courage of the Russian Ukrainians, we could rid ourselves of our parasitical banksters at once!


Wed, 05/07/2014 - 10:27 | 4735834 IndianaJohn
IndianaJohn's picture

And I wish that my man would toss a pail of corn in my manger. The grass out in the pasture is worse than Chinese food.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 12:48 | 4736459 strannick
strannick's picture

Kiev Fascist Oligarchs/IMF debt/CIA oversight and scheming vs. Putin and subsidized gas. Hmm...

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 13:31 | 4736599 Ying-Yang
Ying-Yang's picture

Elsewhere in the world....

Homs - 'Capital of the Syrian revolution' Falls

Rebels begin withdrawing from the city of Homs - a central battleground in the Syrian civil war, once known as the "capital of the revolution" - in a major symbolic victory for Bashar al-Assad.



Wed, 05/07/2014 - 13:58 | 4736739 Lore
Lore's picture

Guess the liver diet didn't help.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 10:31 | 4735843 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

+1.  'Mericans would have more courage if only they had guns.  Oh, wait...

As it is, they will shoot-to-kill only at unarmed oppponents (burglars, tresspassers).  Heaven forbid that they'd actually take on an armed force, where they risk their own lives, as the Bundy Ranch event showed.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 11:47 | 4736229 Overfed
Overfed's picture

For now, Americans still have plenty of bread and circuses. Until that changes, nothing changes.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 10:34 | 4735865 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

Of course we have no way of knowing, but it seems highly likely that Russian Spetnatz and other special forces units are operating in Ukraine now. After the murders of people in Odessa, you can just about bet that such a order would be given by someone in the Russian military command structure.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 11:29 | 4736145 tonyw
tonyw's picture

There are plenty of ex-forces people living there, so not much need yet for boots on the ground but a bit of organisation.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 14:01 | 4736751 Lore
Lore's picture

Wonder how many western-hired "insurgents" are in there now. Those snipers from Maidan still haven't been brought to justice.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 13:08 | 4736524 BanksterSlayer
BanksterSlayer's picture

And isn't tomorrow supposed to be the day when Putin and Xi sign the "Holy Grail" gas & oil deal???

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 11:19 | 4736100 MarsInScorpio
MarsInScorpio's picture



"Climate disruption" - you gotta love it.


Well, Global Warming went down in flames when there was no warming; Climate Change followed right behind once science went back hundreds of thousands of years to prove the climate is always changing - and just repeating a cycle it's been through before.


So now we'll get really esoteric and go for "disruption" - whatever in the Hell that means. Nothing like unintelligible jargon to avoid losing a debate. The Left-Wing Looney Tunes 5% Fringe academics have been doing it since the 60s.


Yeah, you gotta love it.



Wed, 05/07/2014 - 14:42 | 4736898 JuliaS
JuliaS's picture

Climate change? Oh, yeah! I miss the days when climate remained perfectly constant for thousands of years. Room temperature all year around.

Or the ice age... those were the days! The planet was so shiny and pretty! Global warming melted all the ice and allowed ugly vegetation to spread, covering most of the planet instead of some tiny portion in Mesopotamia. The carbon released into the atmosphere provided enough building blocks for all sorts of life to emerge. What a catastrophe!

Do they still refer to people as "carbon based life forms" in schools, cause that's totally raciss!


Wed, 05/07/2014 - 19:25 | 4737741 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Don't know about you, but I'm proud to be a Saltine-American! :>D

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 19:21 | 4737730 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Thanks for the reminders on just how well things are going here in the US!  I have no time for golf though, because there are boards/planks that need to be milled into useful furniture.  Perhaps the Obamatron should take up a hammer and help former Prez Carter and quit chasing white balls around a glorified lawn...

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 10:46 | 4735927 TheMeatTrapper
TheMeatTrapper's picture

The red line? It's right here:


Wed, 05/07/2014 - 09:42 | 4735593 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

And regarding the slience of the MSM:


Wed, 05/07/2014 - 09:21 | 4735527 Patriot Eke
Patriot Eke's picture

This may appear to be the classic divide and conquer strategy, but I would suggest it's more likely "Order through Chaos."

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 09:42 | 4735597 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

New World Order through chaos.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 09:30 | 4735546 youngman
youngman's picture

It was more like starve them out and conquer

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 09:41 | 4735591 Harrison
Harrison's picture

Meanwhile, a Russian government agency confirms that the Crimea referendum was fraudulent, and that the "pro-Russian forces" not only falsified the ballot results, but also intimidated voters.


Wed, 05/07/2014 - 09:52 | 4735640 Latina Lover
Latina Lover's picture

More lies from the USSA Media. The so called Russian group is another CIA NGO front.


Coming from the Washington Post, what else would you expect?

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 10:23 | 4735802 Harrison
Harrison's picture

It's an official Russian government agency.

You think the CIA controls the Russian government?

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 11:01 | 4736000 FMR Bankster
FMR Bankster's picture

That's the wonderful thing about the internet. You can search it and sooner or later find some article from some small non descript agency somewhere in every country to support your view. I'm looking right now for proof that Martians will soon arrive with bags of money to bail us all out. When you close your eyes and hear the sound of hoofs, think horses, not zebras.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 13:38 | 4736639 dracos_ghost
dracos_ghost's picture

I thought Yellen WAS a Martian?

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 19:32 | 4737775 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Hmm, the resemblence is remarkable! :>D

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 10:46 | 4735930 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

Maybe the guy posting that is sincere and only a little naive.

Washington Post is not a reliable source, nor is Fox 'news'. And it should be obvious the rest of msm isn't to be trusted either. Gotta check multiple sources and use the tools of logic (including spotting logical fallacies) to help sort it out. With all this, so much is kept secret that we're groping in the dark.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 13:39 | 4736643 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Trust nothing.  The truth is already counted among the casulties. 

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 13:41 | 4736652 Tradehard
Tradehard's picture

LOL I love how you dumbasses believe Russia is somehow not corrupt! It's still one of the most corrupt countries on the planet. You can hate teh USA all you want but that changes nothing.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 18:27 | 4737538 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

Tradehard:  "LOL I love how you dumbasses believe Russia is somehow not corrupt! It's still one of the most corrupt countries on the planet. You can hate teh USA all you want but that changes nothing."

Well, I don't know any place that isn't corrupt in some way - - - maybe The Land of Oz

No, wait a minute. They had that wizard fellow pulling the levers behind the curtain, so Oz doesn't qualify as non corrupt either.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 10:06 | 4735704 Tracerfan
Tracerfan's picture

Debunked.  Try again.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 11:19 | 4736095 Harrison
Harrison's picture

Yeah, it was the lizard people. That must be it.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 13:34 | 4736615 i-dog
i-dog's picture

You're new at this, aren't you?

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 10:08 | 4735717 Savvy
Savvy's picture

Check the comments in the article you linked, in particular this one:


I confirmed. It is a false flag. president-soviet.ru is owned by an NGO not the Russian government.


org: Spetssvyaz FSO RF
(I assume RF is Russian Federation.)



(Which I assume NGO=Non-Governmental Organization)
A quick google for ROCIT, brings up an Australian web design firm.


Wed, 05/07/2014 - 10:51 | 4735951 TheMeatTrapper
TheMeatTrapper's picture

"Meanwhile, a Russian government agency confirms that the Crimea referendum was fraudulent, and that the "pro-Russian forces" not only falsified the ballot results, but also intimidated voters."

The report you cite even admits that "50 - 60%" voted for unification, which would be a majority. Given the fact that the Black Panthers openly intimidated voters in our Presidential election, and thsi was videotaped, perhaps we should invalidate our elections before nitpicking others? 

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 13:15 | 4736543 Libertarian777
Libertarian777's picture

while i don't doubt the turnout was not as high as claimed and that likely not that high a % voted for secession, the article points towards 50-60% voted for secession with 30-50% turnout. So high end of 30% and low end of 15%.

Since one thing we like on ZH is consistency and lack of hipocracy, lets apply this to the USSA's 2012 elections.


~ 330m population

~240m eligible to vote 

~126m voted (52%)

~62m voted for Obama (49%)

so only 18.8% (62/330) of the population wanted Obama in office.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 09:54 | 4735647 robertsgt40
robertsgt40's picture

Obama plays checkers(or Tiddly Winks).  Putin plays chess 

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 13:13 | 4736535 Tenshin Headache
Tenshin Headache's picture

You're a bit late to that party. Besides, Putin is playing 3D chess and Obama is playing "find your foot."

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 13:41 | 4736656 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

He needs only to look in his mouth.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 13:41 | 4736662 dracos_ghost
dracos_ghost's picture

Hey, be careful. Obama is on the rampage and he's super cereal this time:


The Russians will die of laughter and be forced to retreat. Very sneaky strategy. He did go to Harvard you know.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 09:17 | 4735516 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Rome wasn't burned in a day

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 09:38 | 4735576 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Nero is probably busy teeing off though.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 10:26 | 4735816 agent default
agent default's picture

Nero had nothing to do with it.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 09:17 | 4735518 pods
pods's picture

No doubt some amerikan "advisors" are handing out marching orders to some more death squads.

Sick fucks!


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