The Next Big Catalyst: East Ukraine May Be Officially Indepedent In Seven Days

Tyler Durden's picture

Update: moments after we posted this, Putin did his best to bring attention to just this matter:

  • PUTIN CALLS TO POSTPONE MAY 11 REFERENDUM TO EASE UKRAINE TALKS

And naturally, since there will be no delay as Kiev does not even bother to discuss the referendum while Donetsk will push on but certainly aware of Putin's distance-providing "reservation", Putin will "sadly" have to accept the referendum results.

* * *

The Geneva de-escalation lasted one day. The latest "Putin de-escalates the OSCE" gambit which served its purpose to send spoos higher by 6 points, lasted minutes. To wit:

  • PASHYNSKYI SAYS UKRAINE'S ANTI-TERRORIST OP WILL CONTINUE
  • PASHYNSKYI SAYS FOREIGN EXPERTS INVITED TO ODESSA TO PROBE FIRE

And the most "de-escalatory" statement of all:

  • PASHYNSKYI: ALL SLOVYANSK MILITANTS WILL BE KILLED OR DETAINED

So much for that particular distraction.

However, focusing on what is actually important and market-moving (or will be with a 4-6 week delay in this rigged, non-discounting, broken market) and what most are ignoring for now, is that as previously reported on several occasions, East Ukraine is about to become the next Crimea, following an indepedence referendum that is set to take place in the self-proclaimed Donetsk people's republic on Sunday May 11.

And as Itar-Tass reported moments ago, the results will be in as soon as aweek from today or May 14 which means Russian troops will be officially in what will then be former east Ukraine by the end of next week.

Most polling stations in east Ukraine’s Donetsk Region are already fully equipped for a local referendum that is expected to determine the regional status on May 11, co-chairman of the government of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic Denis Pushilin told TAR-TASS on Wednesday.

 

“Ballot papers are being delivered to polling stations, most of which are already equipped properly,” he said, noting that referendum results are planned to be made public within three days.

 

Pushilin noted that a sociological survey conducted earlier indicated that a referendum turnout may reach no less than 60%, but it will most likely be higher due to latest tragic events in the country.

 

“Many calls are coming even from Kiev and western Ukraine,” he said. “Now even those who did not believe that we are right begin to understand all the depth of a catastrophe in Ukraine and begin to realize where this may lead to,” Pushilin added.

 

Pushilin also did not rule out that provocations were possible in the region on the referendum day on May 11. “All can be expected from the Kiev junta,” he added.

What happens then?

Look no further than the Crimea case study:

  1. Donetsk declares independence
  2. Kiev, the west and NATO condemn the results, sternly refuse to accept the outcome, and issue more sanctions against Russian politicians and oligarchs
  3. Newly "independent" Donetsk requests military support from friendly Russia to defend its population, and the Russian tanks roll across the border

And as other regions in east and south Ukraine follow in the Donetsk' footsteps, assuring Russia a land connection to Crimea and cutting off Kiev from the Donbas industrial zones and the Slavyansk shale gas, Putin wins again.