This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Putin "Talks" Spark Another De-Escalation-Fueled Hope Bounce In Stocks
Forget POMO, today's market is all about FOMO - fear of missing out - when Ukraine is 'fixed' and new newer-er highs are achieved. All it took this morning to lift S&P futures 8 points was a headline that:
- PUTIN, OSCE HEAD BURKHALTER TO DISCUSS UKRAINE CRISIS
USDJPY responded instantly, as did bond yields (higher) and gold (lower) as it's clear that everything will be fixed now. Of course, the Geneva "de-escalation" lasted 1 days; this latest "diplomacy" should last hours if not minutes, but for now the high freaks are delighted and upward momentum has been restored.
Of course, Yellen is also speaking this morning so there's enough rumor-mongering there alone to provide support in the pre-market illiquidty also.
»
- 7311 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Yeah never mind thousands of Russian tanks still being sent to the Ukraine border.
It's just a police action...
I would love to see a Vladamir Putin copy/paste of the Reagan pre-speech from 1985.
"I have just signed legislation banning the existance of the Ukraine. Bombing starts in 5 minutes."
Just to see market reaction.
lol, yes. question is: would algos "grok" the implications? do algos understand humour, or sarcasm?
AI algos can... fuck people...who needs them.
same kabuki over and over ... guess no new ideas ... if it works why change it ...
After Reagan's visit to the Berlin wall in Germany and plea to Gorbachev, I always wanted Reagan to visit The Great Wall in China and plead to the Chinese President
"Chairman Li Xiannian, tear down this wall."
Reagan had a sense of humor, he might have done it.
He should have gone to China and said "Build up this Wall! And we'll help you!" In the meantime the various skirmishing activities continue apace followed ye olde timey "hey, Johnny Reb! What u eatin fer grub?"
Followed by "Sem as you Yank Doodle. Just whatever we can scrounge up."
it's not really a civil war at this stage, and I hope it won't become one. meanwhile the OSCE guys think they might find some compromise for de-escalation. a further hope
Yes, it appears that plenty of countries are willing to pay for Russia's commodities using rubles...
"problem" solved, rally on!
As long as the two sides look at this situation like this:
Russian Prospective;
"Tell you what EU, we'll compromise if you just leave the Ukraine to me. Don't worry, we'll take care of it."
EU Prospective;
"Tell you what Vlad, we'll compromise and just take all of the Ukraine. I am sure you're okay with that."
I think a Civil War in Ukraine is the "best case" scenario. Last thing we need are EuroFighters and Typhoons getting blown out of the Sky by MiGs.
I miss the Ukrainian and the US perspective in your analysis. what do you think that is more important for the EU countries, Ukraine or... Russian trade?
Yes.
I didn't include the US and Ukraine for two reasons,
1) The US and EU's interests here are almost indistinguishable. I doubt the US would kill off the EU economy just to impose sanctions on Russia (which is what the effect of really severe sanctions would be). The US has a big talk, but here the EU and US are almost one in the same. (Thanks you Bilderburger fuckers)
2) The prospective of the Ukranian people is irrelevant. Neither the US/EU or Russia care at all. They will use humanitarian reasons for the "people of Ukraine" to do this and that -- but at the end of the day, its all about the power struggle between the two. Pure and simple.
Ukraine in the EU view is a pawn. But for Russia, it is a major strategic epicenter.
The EU needs to win in one or more of: Syria, Georgia, Libya, Algeria, Tunisia. A win there will get them their alternate energy supplies.
Russia MUST keep Crimea for the warm water port. Russia also has a strategic interest in the Ukraine's terrain. The same terrain that makes it the best place for pipelines from middle eastern and central asian energy providers, also makes it the best route to invade Russia from the West.
Putin is trying to satisfy Rosneft and Gazprom - mostly Gazprom - who want to be the major energy suppliers to Europe.
Germany's WWII and WWI experiences tell them that to allow themselves to be overly dependent on an energy supplier is to stop being an independant nation, and become a dominated puppet.
Russia is NOT IN A GOOD CHESS POSITION VIS-A-VIS UKRAINE, because they've been maneuvered into a choice of losing CRIMEA or losing the pipeline terrain.
To keep both, Russia cannot have a Civil War in Ukraine. A Civil War in the avenue to Russia is not a secure avenue to Russia. Meanwhile the timing and method the Crimea referendum has led Europe and the US to not recognize the Annexation.
Plainly, the agitation in the Avenue-to-Russia part of Ukraine will continue until they get their energy suppliers. Alternatively, Russian Crimea is not secure while Ukraine generally, is unsecure.
Of course, if Putin gives Gazprom and Rosneft the shaft, and lets other energy providers use the pipelines - or build their own on Ukraine's territory - then the problems in Ukraine will calm.
But politically, Putin can''t do that. He has debts to Rosneft and Gazprom. That is the nature of oligarchy.
How is that? Care to expand?
You are right. You will get a MINIMUM of a Civil War in Ukraine.
The EU wants alternate energy suppliers. I say 'EU' but the primary actors are France and Germany.
They have multiple ways to get them. Russia has been working to stop them, wanting to keep them dependent.
The real question is whether their will to diversify is greater than Russia's will to keep them on the plantation.
I would bet that it is - because survival is always a greater motivator than dominance.
So...the EU has been lighting fires in all the Russian Ally states along energy pipeline routes.
Because it is easier to light a fire than put one out, they are tying up more and more of Russia's resources, while conserving their own.
The only way that the Chess works out for Putin in any time horizon longer than an handful of years is if he can settle Ukraine quickly - so Russia's resources can address the other fires.
The problem with Russia's position is that they too have Cold-War-Itis. They've been assuming the Americans were calling the shots, when plainly they aren't. QUI BONO?
If the Americans are calling the shots then why is he negotiating with Euros?
The problem is that to win, Russia must win every battle. But for the EU to win, they need only win once.
So...it is nice to talk about who is a 'Chess Master'. But it is BS. Countries don't resort to using Armies when they are in control of the situation. They use Armies when the situation is spinning out of control.
Night before last on Russian State TV (Channel 1) there was a segment about the History of Ukraine. The Russian State now claims that Ukraine is an imaginary country, that Ukraine is really Russia, and always has been.
They displayed maps over the last two centuries to convey the idea that Ukraine alternately did not exist, or was divided between Poland, Russia, and the Ottomans.
They only have to erase or ignore the previous 1000 years, where Ukraine as a separate country under the prince of Kiev is mentioned even in the Russian First Chronicle, with the division of Ukraine resulting from the final conquests of the Mongol Golden Horde and the Princes of Europe who rallied to stop them.
I mention this because this bit of history is taught in Russian primary schools. No doubt they are busy re-writing textbooks as we speak.
To make such an outrageous claim indicates two things:
1) Russia is seriously contemplating conquering Ukraine -or at least all the important bits - and is articulating justifications for that.
2) Short of erasing ENORMOUS swaths of Russian history, they don't have a justification, or the State TV would never have broadcast such a ridiculous assertion.
None of this, neither the Russian State's telegraphing of their intentions, nor the geopolitical positioning of the EU indicates anyone is remotely willing to back down.
They only have to erase or ignore the previous 1000 years, where Ukraine as a separate country under the prince of Kiev is mentioned even in the Russian First Chronicle, with the division of Ukraine resulting from the final conquests of the Mongol Golden Horde and the Princes of Europe who rallied to stop them.
----
Ancient Kiev has never been the capital of the Ukraine.
Ancient Kiev for some time, was the capital of Ancient Rus (in Greek it sounds like Russia).
Kiev prince named as "Prince of All Rus."
Kiev prince "Vladimir Clear Sun" was a prince of all Rus and he brought Christianity to the Ancient Rus.
Prince Vladimir as Prince of All Rus, was received from the Greek Church the right to bring Christianity to the ancient Rus.
Because he was the leader of the country, which was called the Rus, but not Ukraine.
You need to pay more attention to the study of history and less to listen to propaganda.
lol this whole situation.
Putin just figured out he is more powerful than Yellen!
What a complete and total farce of a market
nice knowing Putin is adhering to the script.
"Farce?" Peace in our time, baby.
BULLISH!
The founders of Hewlett-Packard flipped a coin to determine whose name would come first in the company.
deleted
OK wuss.....heh heh.....I was so close!
Someone over there must work directly for Beelzebub.
They threw up a bond thread so I moved the comment over there.
Understandable. It's just that I really wanted that softball....and it was suddenly gone mid-pitch.
Russia does not want to be drawn into a conflict that will drain her of blood and money. The USA is a stark reminder of where these things lead as is Afghanistan.
Nor does she want to wear the economic albatross called UKRAINE around her neck.
The only outstanding issue is how the Russians in the rest of Ukraine are treated, where the "allies" decide to place their missiles and whether Ukraine keeps paying for any gas it receives.
and how Russian (-speaking) populations will be treated in our dear allied (NATO and EU) Baltic Nations
I was quite mad when there was this thing about an "Oath of Allegiance"
given the timeline to the 25th and nothing done for the referendum- i agree that it appears Russia is standing down.
but the short term benefits you cite to russia will be negated in the long term danger to Russia as the USA abrogates whatever it agrees to - they want Russia and all the resources for the US - its how the debt gets paid for europe and usa.
The eastern Ukrainians will become refugees to Russia as they are forced out economically with no jobs by the IMF and the Ukranian American Business Counsel
so after hundreds of years Russia may finally be at the horizon of being broken up and divided for privatization in the next 20 years
sad - unipolar system will be death to most of mankind as corporations replace sovereign states and austerity is imposed everywhere
W in TF are you prattling on about?
So, the markets have not been concerned about war in Ukraine at all up to this point, but if there is a resolution to this conflict, we are due for a relief rally. Makes perfect sense...
/s
Lavrov already put a pre condition on further talks on Monday.
The east must be a party to any agreement.
BS rumor , because the US will never agree to that.
It's almost as if the west really doesn't want any sort of election to occur. < shocker >
Your grand-son just took over the helm of SERCO-GROUP today, I think you can sleep happy for a few hours.
Totally normal human behavior..
No reaction to the war but everything goes the planners way when they get news they can manipulate the market with!
Putin always has the option of releasing the harpies. That is, he just has to say that he is using US treasuries to buy gold.
In fact he just has to hint at it. Why should only Bernanke, Draghi and now Yellen try to drive the markets with hints?
PUTIN HAD A HAMBURGER FOR LUNCH TODAY
This could indicate Putin want's to swallow anything Merkel and Obama throw at him as "Hamburger" is a German city but "Hamburger" is also something America claims to have invented.
Thus, the market should rally 5% on every index and gold should drop 900$ easy.
thank god he didn't eat any noodles...
PUTIN HAD A HAMBURGER FOR LUNCH TODAY
Chez-burger, bacon chez-burger, or boring normal-fuck burger -- The world wants to know!
If Putin haz chez-burger, that's probly worth 15 S&P points!
What is really important is : Did he eat the fucking pickle ?
Did he eat the fucking pickle ?
I hear that's more Barry's thing.
Eating a hamurger could be a message to the USA as to how he views America.
In any case, AMERICA is an anagram of A CRIMEA
MY GOD! HOW COULD WE HAVE MISSED THAT??!
The US dollar is in its final days, maybe last chance to pick upgold.
we all need to take some time and reflect on this USD/JPY effect on the markets.
Fonz is Abe, I knew it.
haha It just cracks me up how quick the narrative around here changes laws. Looks like this is really gonna be a death by a million cuts market.
Well, evolution never "stops"...
same as it ever was.
Putin has already won. Southern Ujraine will become part of Russia and he will have achieved his goal. Ukraine will be land locked and Russsia will comtrol Odessa to the Criminea. The last Presidential election clearly shows that part of the Ukraine is pro-Russian.
All we are watching now is smoke & mirrors from the West to cover their rears because they got caught with their pants down. That Russian re-set button of Obama & Hillary sure looks stupid now. Besides the EU in their foolishness became deopendent on Russian Gas. They gave Putin the means. He waited, pulling the old rope-a-dope, and the West fell into it.
I don't like Putin, but he can play chess.
Precisely. If mexico was a superpower, this would be similar to watching the southern part of Texas or California decide they don't want to be part of the U.S.S.A. Fortunately, mexico is a corrupt mess.
Putin sure is loving Teflon Barry's "flexibility" that he said he would have after the 2012 election.
I think he'll get EITHER EASTERN Ukraine OR SOUTHERN.
If he tries to get both he'll get a civil war at a minimum, or a world war.
No one in Europe cares about Crimea - except as a bargaining chip to get the pipeline terrain.
So when the talks are announced the market rallies, yet in a few days when it will all fall apart, the market will ignore it.
Remember.... The markets are not rigged!!! Now repeat after me....
its all bullshit, do we even know what he really said?
The desperation is getting worse by the day...
I am sure he will mention some of the CIA and US mercenary prisoners he has been holding. USA not invited to talks.
The USA is not invited, because the US is not really a player here.
The propaganda to the contrary is that, propaganda to stir up fear of boogeymen. The CIA activities in Ukraine are at best a proxy for the EU's desires, and at most a hopeless attempt to keep the Gulf Countries and Euros in the fold, by satisfying their respective desires for Expanded Energy Providers on the one hand, and Expanded Energy Markets in Europe on the other.
The 'Nuland' recording was proof that the US was not in charge. She would NOT have been saying 'fuck the EU' if the EU were not the ones calling the shots. She would not have been trying to decide who to back in Ukraine, AFTER MAIDAN HAD ALREADY CULMINATED, if someone else hadn't already done the backing.
The US is a day late and dollar short in this game, and US interests are out of the running.
They were not invited because nothing the US says will decide anything in Ukraine.
I am waiting to see what happens once the US/IMF check for the gaz bill clears.
Why?
It is a comedy. The check is written on nothing. The money was printed for the occasion.
Cashing it will result in Russia having more US $ to dispose of.
From the Bankster's point of view that is win-win.
Must....Buy....Stawks........Can't....Miss Out.....
Nothing has changed, Putin wants to talk so he can again tell us to get out and stay out of ukraine. The location of this as a military confrontation is right in Putin's backyard and this is a strong advantage for Russia. It is silly to think Putin and Russia will back down. This means poking the bear is not a smart move. It should be noted the military of Ukraine is divided and extremely weak. More about this subject in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/04/war-in-ukraine-bad-idea_26.html
It is Germany's back yard too.
Who do you think benefits if Ukraine turns westward?
It is Germany's back yard too.
----
Ukraine does not border with Germany.
We watched them do it with the debt ceiling. Now we watch them do it with WWIII. Next they'll do it because of a global financial meltdown and war with China.
The Globalists will be bringing in the Chinese and Russians to protrect us during the WWIII and Stocks will go up. The FED will drive the market higher as the derivative markets freexe.
Jamie Dimon, Janet Yellen and Loyd Blankfein won't stop until everyone is dead.
Gold dropping....must not let it hit critical support of 1315.
every fucking day they bring up fucking ukraine to pump the fucking markets up.
this shit is so insane, then when u add in that stupid fucking cunts speech today, the ''market'' will erase all its losses from yesterday by 1030
Oh yeah! This is the one where Hogan gets Klink sent to the Russian front where he is mistaken for Putin. So then Burkhalter goes into the meeting with Putin and finds Klink there instead...
Loved this episode!
haha... beat me to it! I was going to say Gen. Burkhalter shows up with Klink and Schultz in the office. "I see noth-ing! I hear noth-ing!"
Higher oil and gas rates? Since the transmission lines have been impaired and there has been massive dislocation in the global markets Russia killed a couple hundred to enjoy a higher income stream from the survivors!