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Putin "Talks" Spark Another De-Escalation-Fueled Hope Bounce In Stocks

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Forget POMO, today's market is all about FOMO - fear of missing out - when Ukraine is 'fixed' and new newer-er highs are achieved. All it took this morning to lift S&P futures 8 points was a headline that:

  • PUTIN, OSCE HEAD BURKHALTER TO DISCUSS UKRAINE CRISIS

USDJPY responded instantly, as did bond yields (higher) and gold (lower) as it's clear that everything will be fixed now. Of course, the Geneva "de-escalation" lasted 1 days; this latest "diplomacy" should last hours if not minutes, but for now the high freaks are delighted and upward momentum has been restored.

 

 

Of course, Yellen is also speaking this morning so there's enough rumor-mongering there alone to provide support in the pre-market illiquidty also.

 

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Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:21 | 4735355 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Yeah never mind thousands of Russian tanks still being sent to the Ukraine border.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:26 | 4735368 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

It's just a police action...

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:27 | 4735375 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

I would love to see a Vladamir Putin copy/paste of the Reagan pre-speech from 1985.

"I have just signed legislation banning the existance of the Ukraine. Bombing starts in 5 minutes."

Just to see market reaction.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:32 | 4735385 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

lol, yes. question is: would algos "grok" the implications? do algos understand humour, or sarcasm?

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:52 | 4735442 wallstreetapost...
wallstreetaposteriori's picture

AI algos can... fuck people...who needs them.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 09:31 | 4735550 Arius
Arius's picture

same kabuki over and over ... guess no new ideas ... if it works why change it ...

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 09:05 | 4735408 Ignatius
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After Reagan's visit to the Berlin wall in Germany and plea to Gorbachev, I always wanted Reagan to visit The Great Wall in China and plead to the Chinese President

"Chairman Li Xiannian, tear down this wall."

Reagan had a sense of humor, he might have done it.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 09:46 | 4735618 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

He should have gone to China and said "Build up this Wall! And we'll help you!" In the meantime the various skirmishing activities continue apace followed ye olde timey "hey, Johnny Reb! What u eatin fer grub?"

Followed by "Sem as you Yank Doodle. Just whatever we can scrounge up."

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:28 | 4735379 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

it's not really a civil war at this stage, and I hope it won't become one. meanwhile the OSCE guys think they might find some compromise for de-escalation. a further hope

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:37 | 4735389 LawsofPhysics
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Yes, it appears that plenty of countries are willing to pay for Russia's commodities using rubles...

"problem" solved, rally on!

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:35 | 4735395 Haus-Targaryen
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As long as the two sides look at this situation like this:

Russian Prospective; 

"Tell you what EU, we'll compromise if you just leave the Ukraine to me.  Don't worry, we'll take care of it."

EU Prospective;

"Tell you what Vlad, we'll compromise and just take all of the Ukraine.  I am sure you're okay with that."

I think a Civil War in Ukraine is the "best case" scenario.  Last thing we need are EuroFighters and Typhoons getting blown out of the Sky by MiGs. 

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:48 | 4735429 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

I miss the Ukrainian and the US perspective in your analysis. what do you think that is more important for the EU countries, Ukraine or... Russian trade?

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 09:12 | 4735499 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Yes.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 10:12 | 4735739 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

I didn't include the US and Ukraine for two reasons,

1) The US and EU's interests here are almost indistinguishable.  I doubt the US would kill off the EU economy just to impose sanctions on Russia (which is what the effect of really severe sanctions would be).  The US has a big talk, but here the EU and US are almost one in the same.  (Thanks you Bilderburger fuckers)

2) The prospective of the Ukranian people is irrelevant.  Neither the US/EU or Russia care at all.  They will use humanitarian reasons for the "people of Ukraine" to do this and that -- but at the end of the day, its all about the power struggle between the two.  Pure and simple.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 09:35 | 4735557 gcjohns1971
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Ukraine in the EU view is a pawn.  But for Russia, it is a major strategic epicenter.

The EU needs to win in one or more of:  Syria, Georgia, Libya, Algeria, Tunisia.  A win there will get them their alternate energy supplies.

Russia MUST keep Crimea for the warm water port.  Russia also has a strategic interest in the Ukraine's terrain.  The same terrain that makes it the best place for pipelines from middle eastern and central asian energy providers, also makes it the best route to invade Russia from the West.

Putin is trying to satisfy Rosneft and Gazprom - mostly Gazprom - who want to be the major energy suppliers to Europe.

Germany's WWII and WWI experiences tell them that to allow themselves to be overly dependent on an energy supplier is to stop being an independant nation, and become a dominated puppet.

Russia is NOT IN A GOOD CHESS POSITION VIS-A-VIS UKRAINE, because they've been maneuvered into a choice of losing CRIMEA or losing the pipeline terrain.

To keep both, Russia cannot have a Civil War in Ukraine.  A Civil War in the avenue to Russia is not a secure avenue to Russia.  Meanwhile the timing and method the Crimea referendum has led Europe and the US to not recognize the Annexation. 

Plainly, the agitation in the Avenue-to-Russia part of Ukraine will continue until they get their energy suppliers.  Alternatively, Russian Crimea is not secure while Ukraine generally, is unsecure.

Of course, if Putin gives Gazprom and Rosneft the shaft, and lets other energy providers use the pipelines - or build their own on Ukraine's territory - then the problems in Ukraine will calm.

But politically, Putin can''t do that.  He has debts to Rosneft and Gazprom.  That is the nature of oligarchy.

 

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 10:05 | 4735703 stewie
stewie's picture

Russia is NOT IN A GOOD CHESS POSITION VIS-A-VIS UKRAINE, because they've been maneuvered into a choice of losing CRIMEA or losing the pipeline terrain.

 

How is that? Care to expand?


Wed, 05/07/2014 - 09:12 | 4735501 gcjohns1971
gcjohns1971's picture

You are right.  You will get a MINIMUM of a Civil War in Ukraine.

The EU wants alternate energy suppliers.  I say 'EU' but the primary actors are France and Germany. 

They have multiple ways to get them.  Russia has been working to stop them, wanting to keep them dependent.

The real question is whether their will to diversify is greater than Russia's will to keep them on the plantation.

I would bet that it is - because survival is always a greater motivator than dominance.

So...the EU has been lighting fires in all the Russian Ally states along energy pipeline routes. 

Because it is easier to light a fire than put one out, they are tying up more and more of Russia's resources, while conserving their own.

The only way that the Chess works out for Putin in any time horizon longer than an handful of years is if he can settle Ukraine quickly - so Russia's resources can address the other fires.

The problem with Russia's position is that they too have Cold-War-Itis.  They've been assuming the Americans were calling the shots, when plainly they aren't.  QUI BONO? 

If the Americans are calling the shots then why is he negotiating with Euros?

The problem is that to win, Russia must win every battle.  But for the EU to win, they need only win once.

So...it is nice to talk about who is a 'Chess Master'.  But it is BS.  Countries don't resort to using Armies when they are in control of the situation.  They use Armies when the situation is spinning out of control.

Night before last on Russian State TV (Channel 1) there was a segment about the History of Ukraine.  The Russian State now claims that Ukraine is an imaginary country, that Ukraine is really Russia, and always has been. 

They displayed maps over the last two centuries to convey the idea that Ukraine alternately did not exist, or was divided between Poland, Russia, and the Ottomans. 

They only have to erase or ignore the previous 1000 years, where Ukraine as a separate country under the prince of Kiev is mentioned even in the Russian First Chronicle, with the division of Ukraine resulting from the final conquests of the Mongol Golden Horde and the Princes of Europe who rallied to stop them.

I mention this because this bit of history is taught in Russian primary schools.  No doubt they are busy re-writing textbooks as we speak. 

To make such an outrageous claim indicates two things:

1) Russia is seriously contemplating conquering Ukraine -or at least all the important bits - and is articulating justifications for that.

2) Short of erasing ENORMOUS swaths of Russian history, they don't have a justification, or the State TV would never have broadcast such a ridiculous assertion.

None of this, neither the Russian State's telegraphing of their intentions, nor the geopolitical positioning of the EU indicates anyone is remotely willing to back down.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 13:13 | 4736534 silvermail
silvermail's picture

They only have to erase or ignore the previous 1000 years, where Ukraine as a separate country under the prince of Kiev is mentioned even in the Russian First Chronicle, with the division of Ukraine resulting from the final conquests of the Mongol Golden Horde and the Princes of Europe who rallied to stop them.

----

Ancient Kiev has never been the capital of the Ukraine.
Ancient Kiev for some time, was the capital of Ancient Rus (in Greek it sounds like Russia).
Kiev prince named as "Prince of All Rus."
Kiev prince "Vladimir Clear Sun" was a prince of all Rus and he brought Christianity to the Ancient Rus. 

Prince Vladimir as Prince of All Rus, was received from the Greek Church the right to bring Christianity to the ancient Rus.
Because he was the leader of the country, which was called the Rus, but not Ukraine.

You need to pay more attention to the study of history and less to listen to propaganda.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:28 | 4735372 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

lol this whole situation. 

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:21 | 4735357 1stepcloser
1stepcloser's picture

Putin just figured out he is more powerful than Yellen!  

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:22 | 4735361 Max Damage
Max Damage's picture

What a complete and total farce of a market

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:42 | 4735410 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

nice knowing Putin is adhering to the script.  

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:43 | 4735414 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

"Farce?"  Peace in our time, baby. 

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:23 | 4735362 valley chick
valley chick's picture

BULLISH!

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:24 | 4735365 useless_fact
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The founders of Hewlett-Packard flipped a coin to determine whose name would come first in the company.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:26 | 4735367 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

deleted

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:30 | 4735377 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

OK wuss.....heh heh.....I was so close!

 

Someone over there must work directly for Beelzebub.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:33 | 4735387 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

They threw up a bond thread so I moved the comment over there.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:39 | 4735391 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Understandable. It's just that I really wanted that softball....and it was suddenly gone mid-pitch.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:26 | 4735369 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Russia does not want to be drawn into a conflict that will drain her of blood and money. The USA is a stark reminder of where these things lead as is Afghanistan.

Nor does she want to wear the economic albatross called UKRAINE around her neck.

The only outstanding issue is how the Russians in the rest of Ukraine are treated, where the "allies" decide to place their missiles and whether Ukraine keeps paying for any gas it receives.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:36 | 4735397 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

and how Russian (-speaking) populations will be treated in our dear allied (NATO and EU) Baltic Nations

I was quite mad when there was this thing about an "Oath of Allegiance"

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:55 | 4735451 Omen IV
Omen IV's picture

given the timeline to the 25th and nothing done for the referendum- i agree that it appears Russia is standing down.

but the short term benefits you cite to russia will be negated in the long term danger to Russia as the USA abrogates whatever it agrees to - they want Russia and all the resources for the US - its how the debt gets paid for europe and usa.

The eastern Ukrainians will become refugees to Russia as they are forced out economically with no jobs by the IMF and the Ukranian American Business Counsel

so after hundreds of years Russia may finally be at the horizon of being broken up and divided for privatization in the next 20 years

sad - unipolar system will be death to most of mankind as corporations replace sovereign states and austerity is imposed everywhere

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 09:17 | 4735520 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

W in TF are you prattling on about?

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:26 | 4735371 jtz5
jtz5's picture

So, the markets have not been concerned about war in Ukraine at all up to this point, but if there is a resolution to this conflict, we are due for a relief rally.  Makes perfect sense...

/s

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:30 | 4735380 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Lavrov already put a pre condition on further talks on Monday.
The east must be a party to any agreement.
BS rumor , because the US will never agree to that.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:34 | 4735392 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

It's almost as if the west really doesn't want any sort of election to occur. < shocker >

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:38 | 4735402 james.connolly
james.connolly's picture

Your grand-son just took over the helm of SERCO-GROUP today, I think you can sleep happy for a few hours.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:31 | 4735382 SilverIsMoney
SilverIsMoney's picture

Totally normal human behavior..

No reaction to the war but everything goes the planners way when they get news they can manipulate the market with!

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:33 | 4735388 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Putin always has the option of releasing the harpies. That is, he just has to say that he is using US treasuries to buy gold.

In fact he just has to hint at it. Why should only Bernanke, Draghi and now Yellen try to drive the markets with hints?

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:34 | 4735393 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

PUTIN HAD A HAMBURGER FOR LUNCH TODAY

This could indicate Putin want's to swallow anything Merkel and Obama throw at him as "Hamburger" is a German city but "Hamburger" is also something America claims to have invented.

Thus, the market should rally 5% on every index and gold should drop 900$ easy.

thank god he didn't eat any noodles...

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:38 | 4735398 Antarctico
Antarctico's picture

PUTIN HAD A HAMBURGER FOR LUNCH TODAY

 

Chez-burger, bacon chez-burger, or boring normal-fuck burger -- The world wants to know!

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 09:02 | 4735473 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

If Putin haz chez-burger, that's probly worth 15 S&P points!

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 09:17 | 4735517 Mabussur
Mabussur's picture

What is really important is : Did he eat the fucking pickle ?

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 09:26 | 4735542 Antarctico
Antarctico's picture

Did he eat the fucking pickle ?

I hear that's more Barry's thing.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:41 | 4735403 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Eating a hamurger could be a message to the USA as to how he views America.

In any case, AMERICA is an anagram of A CRIMEA

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:44 | 4735418 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

MY GOD! HOW COULD WE HAVE MISSED THAT??!

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:38 | 4735401 truth serum
truth serum's picture

The US dollar is in its final days, maybe last chance to pick upgold.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:39 | 4735407 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

we all need to take some time and reflect on this USD/JPY effect on the markets.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:44 | 4735419 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Fonz is Abe, I knew it.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:49 | 4735432 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

haha It just cracks me up how quick the narrative around here changes laws. Looks like this is really gonna be a death by a million cuts market.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 09:02 | 4735474 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Well, evolution never "stops"...

same as it ever was.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:44 | 4735416 Wags
Wags's picture

Putin has already won. Southern Ujraine will become part of Russia and he will have achieved his goal. Ukraine will be land locked and Russsia will comtrol Odessa to the Criminea. The last Presidential  election clearly shows that part of the Ukraine is pro-Russian.

All we are watching now is smoke & mirrors from the West to cover their rears because they got caught with their pants down. That Russian re-set button of Obama & Hillary sure looks stupid now. Besides the EU in their foolishness became deopendent on Russian Gas. They gave Putin the means. He waited, pulling the old rope-a-dope, and the West fell into it.

I don't like Putin, but he can play chess.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:46 | 4735427 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Precisely.  If mexico was a superpower, this would be similar to watching the southern part of Texas or California decide they don't want to be part of the U.S.S.A.  Fortunately, mexico is a corrupt mess.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:55 | 4735453 Eyeroller
Eyeroller's picture

Putin sure is loving Teflon Barry's "flexibility" that he said he would have after the 2012 election.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 09:54 | 4735653 gcjohns1971
gcjohns1971's picture

I think he'll get EITHER EASTERN Ukraine OR SOUTHERN. 

If he tries to get both he'll get a civil war at a minimum, or a world war.

No one in Europe cares about Crimea - except as a bargaining chip to get the pipeline terrain.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:46 | 4735426 Eyeroller
Eyeroller's picture

So when the talks are announced the market rallies, yet in a few days when it will all fall apart, the market will ignore it.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:51 | 4735436 Guitarbill
Guitarbill's picture

Remember.... The markets are not rigged!!!  Now repeat after me....

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:51 | 4735437 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

its all bullshit, do we even know what he really said?

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:55 | 4735450 SilverIsMoney
SilverIsMoney's picture

The desperation is getting worse by the day...

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:57 | 4735452 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I am sure he will mention some of the CIA and US mercenary prisoners he has been holding.  USA not invited to talks.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 09:52 | 4735632 gcjohns1971
gcjohns1971's picture

The USA is not invited, because the US is not really a player here.

The propaganda to the contrary is that, propaganda to stir up fear of boogeymen.  The CIA activities in Ukraine are at best a proxy for the EU's desires, and at most a hopeless attempt to keep the Gulf Countries and Euros in the fold, by satisfying their respective desires for Expanded Energy Providers on the one hand, and Expanded Energy Markets in Europe on the other.

The 'Nuland' recording was proof that the US was not in charge.  She would NOT have been saying 'fuck the EU' if the EU were not the ones calling the shots.   She would not have been trying to decide who to back in Ukraine, AFTER MAIDAN HAD ALREADY CULMINATED, if someone else hadn't already done the backing.

The US is a day late and dollar short in this game, and US interests are out of the running. 

They were not invited because nothing the US says will decide anything in Ukraine.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 08:59 | 4735462 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

I am waiting to see what happens once the US/IMF check for the gaz bill clears.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 09:44 | 4735600 gcjohns1971
gcjohns1971's picture

Why?

It is a comedy.   The check is written on nothing.  The money was printed for the occasion.

Cashing it will result in Russia having more US $ to dispose of.

From the Bankster's point of view that is win-win.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 09:00 | 4735468 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Must....Buy....Stawks........Can't....Miss Out.....

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 09:11 | 4735497 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

Nothing has changed, Putin wants to talk so he can again tell us to get out and stay out of ukraine. The location of this as a military confrontation is right in Putin's backyard and this is a strong advantage for Russia. It is silly to think Putin and Russia will back down. This means poking the bear is not a smart move. It should be noted the military of Ukraine is divided and extremely weak. More about this subject in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/04/war-in-ukraine-bad-idea_26.html

 

 

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 09:42 | 4735590 gcjohns1971
gcjohns1971's picture

It is Germany's back yard too.

Who do you think benefits if Ukraine turns westward?

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 13:27 | 4736581 silvermail
silvermail's picture

It is Germany's back yard too.

----

Ukraine does not border with Germany.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 09:17 | 4735519 q99x2
q99x2's picture

We watched them do it with the debt ceiling. Now we watch them do it with WWIII. Next they'll do it because of a global financial meltdown and war with China.

The Globalists will be bringing in the Chinese and Russians to protrect us during the WWIII and Stocks will go up. The FED will drive the market higher as the derivative markets freexe.

Jamie Dimon, Janet Yellen and Loyd Blankfein won't stop until everyone is dead.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 09:22 | 4735532 The_Ungrateful_Yid
The_Ungrateful_Yid's picture

Gold dropping....must not let it hit critical support of 1315.

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 09:30 | 4735547 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

every fucking day they bring up fucking ukraine to pump the fucking markets up.

 

this shit is so insane, then when u add in that stupid fucking cunts speech today, the ''market'' will erase all its losses from yesterday by 1030

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 09:42 | 4735594 totem
totem's picture

Oh yeah!  This is the one where Hogan gets Klink sent to the Russian front where he is mistaken for Putin.  So then Burkhalter goes into the meeting with Putin and finds Klink there instead...

Loved this episode!

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 10:22 | 4735793 Bryan
Bryan's picture

haha... beat me to it!  I was going to say Gen. Burkhalter shows up with Klink and Schultz in the office.  "I see noth-ing!  I hear noth-ing!"

Wed, 05/07/2014 - 09:53 | 4735642 elwind45
elwind45's picture

Higher oil and gas rates? Since the transmission lines have been impaired and there has been massive dislocation in the global markets Russia killed a couple hundred to enjoy a higher income stream from the survivors!

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