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Tesla, Which Has First Model S Sales Decline Since 2012, Explained In Three Charts
While Tesla's financial results will hardly be much discussed by either the bulls or bears who follow the company - because it is one of the last remaining "story" stocks - and most will instead focus on the fact that Tesla sold 6,457 Model S cars in the quarter, down 6% from the 6,892 sold in Q4 2013, and the first sequential sales decline since 2012 (Is Tesla about to be Twittered?), here are, for the purists, the only three charts that matter.
First, the EPS. And since we focus on purists, we show both GAAP and non-GAAP EPS:
Second, here is the GAAP and non-GAAP revenues. Yes, Tesla reports non-GAAP revenue:
And finally, Tesla's Free Cash Flow: Q1 was the worst quarter in terms of cash burn since 2012.
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It's the weather, of course
Saw a Fisker on the road the other day. Very cool looking car. I wonder what you do when it breaks ?
Cash "burn".
Get it?
I saw a Deadhead sticker on a Fisker Karma once.
Buy the dip, deliveries are supply constrained.
Sorry, that's what non GAAP means. Count it when ordered.
Buy a car and get a space X rocket at half price.....
Actually, Fisker's are great if you want to light up a smoke underwater or heat your pool...
All of things which should be tried.
http://i.imgur.com/3fhcWUU.jpg
In other news if you smoke after sex you're doing it too fast.
The only positive thing I can say about tesla is that this market mania allowed them to actually repay the government. otherwise I think what has always been my view holds that the key to their financial success will be joint ventures with auto manufacturers.
It was so cool when you were the only guy with a Tesla because you got easy parking slots with free power sprinkled all over LA. Now that someone else has bought one....it's making things a bit more challenging
I saw a Fisker on the side of the road the other day...must have been bad Karma/Kharma.
slap an Obama sticker on it and somebody will be by to fix it
Yeah, I saw one yesterday. A roadster sport. Thing looked pretty sweet and fast. Tried to hear if it made any noise. They are cool if nothing else besides toys for the rich.
WHen a Fiskar breaks, you had best hope you have a very very very good mechanic who can work from the manuals
and figure out how to either make parts or find catalog items close enough to fit.
Same thing you do when you use your paper towel. Throw it away and buy another. Cuz if your buyin, i doubt money is a problem.
People who buy Fisker don't care. They can buy next Gisker. Like we throw away $50 camera and get another one.
People can't afford to by one whether it's spring, summer, fall, or especially winter.
Don't worry about the cash burn, the government will fork over more subsidies.
So..... $220 by Friday, right?
BUWAHAHAHAHAH!!!
Alas, Teslas are not ipods....more like Porsche...with the accompanying financials.
Maybe, but a Porsche doesn't usually need a new $40,000.00 engine installed every 70k miles or so.
Good luck with that battery pack replacement guys.
Saw a new Model S on the road yesterday. The paper plate said: "Zero Emissions."
Felt like rolling down my window and explaining to the smug driver that his "zero emission" Tesla merely shifted the polution to a lower socio-economic neighborhood, and in fact he was a racist for dumping his polution on minorities...
While the battery is warranted for 100K, there is no evidence the battery will not last a reasonable time period.
People said the same thing about Hybrids and plenty of Priuses are still running with 10 year old batteries
Until very recently the Prius used lead-acid and NiMH batteries; NOT Lithium-ion.
Huge difference...
That is because every hybrid owner I know prefers to drag the weight of a dead battery and an inert electical engine instead of shelling a typical $8K for a replacement pack. I've talked to dealers and they very rarely sell batteries to end customers. Typically a trade-in may get retrofitted with a new battery, as it would have no re-sale potential otherwise, but that is it. By the time a hybrid reaches the end of its cycle, the battery service makes up half of the car's value. That makes trade-ins more appealing and that's exactly what people choose. All part of the plan.
Hybrids are disposable cars - one step away from resembling iPads with a permanently sealed batteries.
Smells like lithium smoke in here ...
Tesla feels so Packard.
De facto bankrupt Panasonic can't possibly build that lithium ion (exploding laptop battery) gigamegafactory in the Arizona desert fast enough.
Elon is quite anxious, you know. At a heat spewing 14,000 to 30,000 laptop batteries per vehicle (despite a cold weather range as low as the double digits in terms of miles) MUST MAKE MOAR EXPENSIVE LITHIUM ION BATTERIES (for shrinking number of sales)...
teslas's are packed with 18650 batteries. the same once I use in my vaporizer.
Crappy batteries but cheap as hell.
that gigaflop is a joke. they'll never run a profit that way.
Are you saying that you can use the Tesla batteries to make a death ray that vaporizes people?
Just vaporizes profits.
Time to short the POS, the market is just getting around to
TESLA.
Strong support at $0,which is more than its worth.
Surprised no-one has blown the whistle on the battery returns yet, or are people just using them to showboat ?
That would be the only way they can't be happening ,en mass, by deep discharge cycling the battery.
Check out this report on winter driving range issues with the Tesla: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/automobiles/stalled-on-the-ev-highway....
No way in hell I would pay that much for this kind of headache.
Which just proves there is no new tech here.
Lithium batteries have ALL the same problems as lead acid
ones.The biggest being battery 'memory', reducing available charge after each deep discharge cycle. exponentially from new.You can slow it ,by squaring the syn wave,but not stop it.
Tesla had a response to the Broder Article, that was fairly meritorious.
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/most-peculiar-test-drive
and the broder counter
http://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/14/that-tesla-data-what-it-says-...
and then the public ombudsman
http://publiceditor.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/18/problems-with-precision...
I'd say if you have 85K to spend a Model S is a very good car, however, at 85K it has to be.
I know of a technology that has all the advantages of battery powered vehicals and none of the terrible disadvantages:
http://ohiovr.com/?p=59
and
(an update)
http://ohiovr.com/?p=107
Assuming the 3000 mAh version of the 18650 at 3.7 V, I get about 5400 batteries for the smaller 60 kWh version. I have had at least a couple of these little bastards go bad on me in various things. Hope they are using better versions than I had.
don't wanne brag but yes...
I'm going to mount it on the roof of my car and it should solve my traffic problems. But for now it's all hush hush capiesh?!
He's talking about his e-vaporizer. He needs lots of nicotine to keep his arms moving like that constantly.
.@fastFT: Tesla's first quarter deliveries top forecasts http://on.ft.com/1fQ7O2p
LOL! #winning #buyyoulemmingsbuy
just a reminder to bulls, over a long enough time frame, gaap always = non gaap. non gaap earnings typically fall well short of GAAP during recessions, when corps get rid of all the shit they've piled onto their B/S for the last few years. its why E typically drop 40-50% during recessions.
GAAP iis soo laast decaade.
Accounting has become just a concept; a guideline. Plus it has been so debased that it is now a joke.
Burning through cash, burning through cars...
Yeah, well I've rooting for Musk from the sidelines but this does not look good. As a momentum play his unit sales need to trend up -- always.
The trouble in River City is that electric cars work as subsidized vanity playthings for the rich - only.
By "rich" I mean something above "middle class." What's "middle class?" I DK, ask Charles Hugh Smith, it ain't me, though.
Do electric cars have a future? Will they work for the bottom 80% at some point? I have no idea.
You're right.
Which is why the company is still going with the same defective tech that has always doomed battery vehicles.
If they had normal use, by normal people, the returns would be horrific.
Been there, done that.Maybe I was targeting the wrong market.
The simple issue is Auto Grade Battery must drop below $250/KWH 60cent/ KiloJoule.
That will happen in the next 2 years.
The Nissan Leaf is a little under range and a little overprice, that will change fast.
That may happen in the next 2 years.
We'll all know then, huh?
'Til then, I don't know.
Electric cars have been "right around the corner" for over a century now.
Gasoline-powered cars beat electric cars in 1905, and nothing meaningful has changed since then. Other than the gigantic supply chain and global infrastructure worth trillions of dollars that supports gasoline powered cars, that is.
wuh wo
The Tesla S is an overpriced golf cart; a gimmick, a decorative trivet, a fad.
In highway driving at 90 degrees with the A.C. on you can go 229 miles, and that is when the batteries are new.
In other words, if you leave from L.A. you ain't going to make it to Vegas, baby!
B.T.W. - when you are charging you are likely using Coal or NatGas fired electricity; not so environmentally friendly!
And the batteries are less and less efficient with every passing month, and just wait until you have to replace them!
they really have no place to put the old batteries. They are not recyclable and will melt a hole right down to the magma
I wish golf carts would do 0-100kmh in less than 5 seconds though
Drink enough beer, and you won't notice the difference.
it quite literally IS an overpriced golf cart.
i remember seeing this elon musk guy about 10 years ago on what was the discovery channel. it was one of those discover tomorrow type shows about future technology.
the car they were showing was just a tube framed dune buggy chassis, and a carnival ride looking fiberglass body. it was powered by thousands of cellphone batteries.
Musk gave his pricing strategy of the car this way;
" The car's rate of acceleration is between a Porsche and a Ferrari, so we're going to price it somewhere between a Porsche and a Ferrari"
Yup, that's his justification for the price. took the strategy right out of the Steve Jobs Apple marketing playbook. charge way too much for an average product and use a slick marketing campaign to get people to pay way more than the product is actually worth.
im pretty sure he was even wearing the same style glasses back then, wish i could find the video clip, would really open people's eyes to what a joke this whole Tesla company and its founder really is.
The difference of course, is that Steve Jobs delivered affordable products that delivered real value compared to the competition. When hundreds of millions of people buy your products, it's hard to make a case that they are overpriced.
Trivets don't catch fire.
after hours down 6%
BAMM! I love it :)
Been bullying that yahoo messageboard as johnrock1976 for weeks now :)
finally paying off :)
i dont get it. i was at the TED convention, and there was this really well spoken, cool looking guy, with all kinds of smoke and mirrors around him, and he was so excited, and he was so charismatic, and so smart!!!.....and so optimistic and so sure...and he said tesla was the future....that it would save the world...that technology would solve our problems....that tesla was the way.........and i ran home and bought their stock.....i dont get it......i dont get it.......
check the BMW I8
http://photo.netcarshow.com/BMW-i8_Spyder_Concept_2012_photo_01.jpg
same price for europeans than a tesla and it's a hybrid!
We need idea men.
LOL...wait spas, that was the same guy i saw deliver the tesla speech at TED!!!!!
Yup.
The BMW with the hybrid (3 cyclinder turbo) is the way to go. You can get about 95 mpg with the i8. All electric is not the way to go. The i8 is a speciality niche. If someone in Europe has a choice between a BMW i8 and a Tesla - they will take the i8 any day.
Around the Palo Alto area I see many of them during my commute....perhaps since there are many they have lost a large part of their appeal to a certain type of consumer??? Maybe everyone who wanted a Tesla now has one???
The vehicle sales I find really confusing are those for Harley Davidson.....some one out there still is buying $15,000+ toys.....maybe there are far more gay bankers than I had realized?
Give Harley about 10 more years, when their current customer base dies off or gets too old to ride. The current average age of a Harley rider is about 55.
So dying at 65?
cause you are never to old to ride
Big Gay Al rides a Harley.
So does Mr. Hat.
The average harley rider (at least around here) is about 150-200 pounds overweight. So yeah, dead @ 65.
I know a lot of people who are changing Harleys for those new BMW bikes. More stable and less vibrating, they say.
BMW's lineup of bikes are pretty awesome. They have really improved. Even those scotter things are cool. I am more a Ducati and Augusta guy but that BMW HP4 is a really hot.
Seems that TSLA is experiencing some severe growing pains. Trying to break into a well-established industry with a disruptive business model (no dealers, electric, etc.) is not easy.
Plus the whole flawed concept thing, and the delusional execution
I have always wondered if Toyota is going to step in at some point and buy Tesla as a new luxury division of all electric cars. There are a lot (A LOT) of buyers dumping off their Priuseseses for these Teslas and Toyota cannot be happy about losing those sales in either the Lexus or Toyota divisions. Their smallish $50M investment was not much, but the RAV4 electric is a Tesla with Toyota skin. So already cross fertilizing without the branding.
All Toyota has to do is wait around a while, then decide if it is worth it. Looks like that may be sooner rather than later.
Toyota has a luxury brand in Lexus. Given toyota has access to Tesla engineering, they can learn enough to
make an EV Lexus. No, if anyone is going to buy Tesla, i would imagine either Daimler or the Koreans.
Kia/Hyundai don't have a luxury brand, and this would be an easy way to do that.
But I thought everyone was rich in Cali?? Oh wait, that's just the regulators and politicians...better get the tax per mile bill passed....fucking california, what a joke of a place.
As long as it holds here till about 9:35 tomorrow so I can cover my short spreads idc what it does. Its currently right at the expected move so no surprizes.
I am not on the call but Elon better not fuck me again on this one; hoooold....
1) This thing has half the range of a gasoline car
2) But it costs double the price tag than a comparable gasoline car
3) It takes 10 times longer to charge half of your battery than fill all of your tank (no, I DON'T WANT to drink coffee during the charge! NO!)
Any one of those things would not make me want to buy that car. But all three of them? Seriously? WHO THE FUCK thinks this is the future?!?! It's so innovative because there is a touch screen inside? Give me a break.
Tesla is a HUGE warning flag how stupid people have become and how too much easy money fucks up everything.
And I didn't even start talking about the stocks!
My opinion: This company will not exist anymore in 2016.
Agreed on every point good sir.
Won't exist in 2016? I completely disagree. But I'll definitely take a hit of whatever you're smoking!
Well, it will continue to exist for as long as Elon Musk can dump other people's money into it.
The entire market is crazy overvalued. Russell peaked, Nasdaq peaked, S&P peaked, Dow peaked. 2013 is when the shorts capitulated. That 30% ramp last year was the turnover. Market's gone no where this year. More and more of these marginal companies will start to be exposed this year.
Look under RanSquawk News to the right - see all those announcements of dividend hikes and MOAR share buybacks?
Those are the sure fire grasping of straws (in addition to outright cooking of books to unicorn/rainbow standards) in efforts to keep (fraudulently manipulated) market caps from collapsing. This is the 3rd massive equity bubble since 1999, but there's absolutely nothing left of any foundation to support the weight of the next crash.
Hello... Elon Musk is paying his campaign contributions. Don't be distracted by silly things like product quality or usefulness. Te$la will continue to exist.
Perhaps it's time Tesla doubled the salaries of it's employees, so that they can afford to buy one. That's what the left is telling me at least.
It worked for Ford.
So anytime a company's sales drop, we pass a law that says they must double their wages. That's certain to work, right? And all this time companies have been cutting back when things got slow. Now we know why the economy is such a wreck....
Ford raised prices to get employees from leaving, and reducing costly turnover. It was not so that they could afford what they produced. That is a myth perpeptuated by the left.
Every day on my way to and from work one of these P.O.S. matchsticks gets in my way on the highway in Austin. You'd think that it being considered a sports car, that they'd drive it faster than my SUV, but no they're usually going 50 in the left lane like the Prius drivers.
I'll only be impressed when they create a Tesla I can drive to the moon & back ............... on a single charge!
Plus I'll want to drive around on the moon for a few days to see what's goin' on !
It's really just a toy for the rich here in Silicon Valley. I see them all day long, several of my clients own them as well, etc.
Passe, boring, as common as a Honda. For anyone reading that is not living in Northern CA, you can't believe what's going on with the spending (houses, cars) and materialism out here. It's like a sad fantasy. At least my client that drove up in a new Audi R8 last week has originality. (Not my style though.)
too bad really. i always thought No Cal was different than So Cal or is it just after you cross the bridge into the emerald triangle....or do they drive Tesla's too? CA is a beautiful state with untold resources, being f'd up by the fruits and nuts that live there.
Beverly Hills and West Los Angeles is Tesla country, too.
Bentleys, Beemers, Mercedes, Priusessess, Lexii, Porsches making a comeback, Jaguwars, Aston Martins, Fiats (!!!), Maseratis, occassional Ferraris and Lambos in nice frosty finishes, Volts, you name it we got it. Sometimes even an American car I mean with a gas engine.
tesla's market = 24.98 billion
gross profit = 156 million
Ford market cap of 61.59 billion
gross profit of more than 26 times that of tesla (4,177.00 million)
FYI
LMAO
Yo Maximus, great call, but you could have made the rubble bounce . . .
Note Ford vs TSLA's earnings when measured by GAAP.
ya know, you can pick up som $100 Jan 15 puts for 2.40. when they finish round trip back to $40 or lower....
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=TSLA+Options
There's a lot of options at play out there for the size of the company!
I think I'd spread my bet over $150s, $100s, and maybe some $80s, largest open ints.
Hmm, ...
I sure hope Tyler is short Tesla, otherwise this senseless attacking the Ford of our times has no foundation in logic.
Fiskers can do 32 miles/charge(before the ICE kicks in) any mileage after 32 miles costs you 20 miles/gal, Tesla 280+ miles pure electric about $10-13 from zero charge
A Tesla can charge up every night at home, no gas stops, full range is available everytime you plug in for 4 hours or less.
Both vehicles will rarely need service for brakes as they use regnerative braking systems, and have no transmissions
Teslas need no oil changes.
Tesla is choked right now for batteries, which Panasonic can't supply due to capacity problems from demand, which was acknowledged last quarter and will rise 40% by end of 2014 and a massive Giga factory is coming on line in 2017
Model X SUV will be coming on line 2015, China market now open (50% of large sedan sales occur in Asia) production to rise to 7.5K units/Q end of year.
Now all you need is to invest in the home based wind/solar generation company that is out there some where....
Oh, it's the "Ford" of our times, all right. Found On Road Dead.
"the Ford of our times" Seriously? Ford made a common car for the common man, plus they practically invented the assembly line, among other things. I just don't see much of anything innovative out of tesla at all, just borrowed tech and borrowed money.
Oh well Trolls will be trolls
First of all they dominate the Large Luxury Sedan market(top seller this year), then the SUV market opens up(2015), and the 3rd gen Tesla coming in at $50K (2017), the mass market.
What trolls will not take into account is the massive savings these cars provide, for your average large sedan, you're talking about $50 to go 300 miles and Teslas are about $10 for 300 miles(not counting the free Tesla charge ups), in an average year one puts on 15K miles, Sedan 50 x $50, $2500/year, Tesla $500/year. So over the course of a 7 year life span of the battery pack you save $14K just on fuel. With the minimal maintenance required for an electric car, you will save in the neighbourhood of $1200 a year, or $8,400. Of course all that time wasted pumping gas has to be accounted for as well, 50 x 15 mins = 12.5 hrs/year, another $4375 in 7 years($50/hr), so just a total on the basics comes to $26,775 over the course of a battery pack life. All the while you're driving one of the fastest production vehicles ever made, in style and luxury.
New battery techs are making lithium batteries, cheaper, lighter, and more powerful. So you can easily see more cost reductions in the days going forward, as competitors move in with better technologies, and competitive bidding, of course by then scale of the market will be so much larger, so the math just keeps getting better. But of course trolls and those that don't apply any thought to the situation will hang on with short sighted logic at best.
Oh my, such a stinging rebuke I'm sure that cost you half your intellectual capital.
I started out commenting and writing about Tesla with distant fascination but recently I had to throw a flag. Seriously! Talk about overvalued, this stock rates right up their with the other jokes of the day like Twitter, Amazon, and Facebook. A fifty fifty chance exist that Tesla will not even be around in ten years.
When all the hoopla ends, the question is whether larger competitors will simply overwhelm and crush Tesla, or will Tesla instead position itself to grow and maybe take over a competitor to help propel it forward. Remember this is a field where many have failed, one great example was the Delorean. More on the subject of Tesla and Elon Musk in the post below,
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/05/tesla-motors-and-elon-musk.html
Be careful selling Tesla short. What few people realize about Tesla Motors is that the founder, Elon Musk was the cofounder of PayPal with none other than Peter Theil. Peter Thiel did PayPal to give the globalists a massive insight into online payments and transfers of money around the world. Peter is now the head of the steering committee for the Bilderberg group. Whatever your views are of that organization, there is NO QUESTION that they ARE the moneyed, poweer elites of the world and I am sure that Tesla has become their stock market baby. They WON'T let it fail.