"New Russia" - Is This What East Ukraine Will Soon Look Like?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As "The Russian Spring" spreads across various sub-regions of current non-Russian sovereign nations, Russian historian Sergey Lebedev warns that Transdniestria is “the first liberated part of Novorossiya,” Putin’s term for what he sees as a new state spreading across Ukraine into Moldova and perhaps beyond... here is what that region will look like... welcome to Novorossiya, or as one would translate it... New Russia.

 

 

As InterpreterMag believes,

Lebedev’s article highlights two directions of Putin’s policies, both of which should be of concern not only in the region but in Europe and the West more generally.

 

On the one hand, to the extent that Transdniestria is a model for some putative Novorossiya, it presents a very ugly picture.

 

Transdniestria under its breakaway government has been one of the most repressive places in the former Soviet space and has a thoroughly criminalized government that has been prepared to sell off the enormous arms cache there left over from USSR times to all and sundry, including terrorist groups.

 

And on the other, it underscores that Putin’s plans are far broader than Ukraine and involve a thrust into the Balkans. Were Transdniestria to be taken from Moldova and annexed to Russia, that would almost certainly lead to the collapse of the Moldovan state, the unification of part of it with Romania, the federalization of that country, and the extension of a Moscow-sponsored arc of instability into the Balkans.

 

...

 

Sanctions are not enough to “change Putin’s calculus,” as even American officials are beginning to acknowledge. And given the dangers that allowing him to move even further west into Moldova and beyond would inevitably entail, the time to contain and then reverse what he is doing is now.

Meanwhile Victoria Nuland, giving testimony in the house... was not backing down...

  • NULAND CITES UKRAINE'S `PERNICIOUS CANCER OF CORRUPTION'
  • NULAND SAYS NATO `DOUBLING DOWN' ON LAND, SEA, AIR PRESENCE
  • NULAND SAYS RUSSIA SANCTIONS SHOULD AIM AT `FORWARD' INVESTMENT
  • NULAND SAYS PUTIN WILL SEE SECTORAL SANCTIONS AS DETERRENT
  • NULAND SAYS RUSSIANS BUYING FEWER LUXURY GOODS IN EU
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Thu, 05/08/2014 - 13:47 | 4740388 timeless21
timeless21's picture

New Old Russia

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 14:01 | 4740446 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

the territorial gains shown on that map are pretty impressive

but frankly pretty modest when compared to the increases in northern mexico

 

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 14:06 | 4740466 shankster
shankster's picture

Mexico will soon claim Houston as it's newest city.

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 14:11 | 4740484 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

It is already too late for San Antonio......

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 14:18 | 4740514 power steering
power steering's picture

they can keep Ron Paul

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 14:30 | 4740562 BlindMonkey
BlindMonkey's picture

Troll bastard. Take a hint from the bankers and find a picturesque building to fling yourself from. You know you want too.

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 14:38 | 4740590 SoberOne
SoberOne's picture

New Russia same as the Old Russia. Well, not really.

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 20:51 | 4741855 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Last time Russia consisted of principlalities and city-states, the Mongols spun through it like a tasmanian devil...IIRC.

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 21:26 | 4741984 TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

The Rabbit Hole

Another shameless blog by TwoShortPlanks

http://twoshortplanksunplugged.blogspot.com.au/2014/05/the-rabbit-hole.html

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 15:22 | 4740809 power steering
power steering's picture

You so witty

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 23:10 | 4742241 angel_of_joy
angel_of_joy's picture

You not.

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 15:30 | 4740846 HamRove
HamRove's picture

Wow...See this is why I like ZH. Prompt Ron Paul defense. 

 

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 14:21 | 4740518 Ying-Yang
Ying-Yang's picture

Yo brah... Houston?

"Mexico will soon claim Houston as it's newest city"

Brah what yall think be the most grymest place in H-Town?

What yall know about d heart of tha SE H-city.. ha

Basically though all wards gdet doawn but from what i know and seen its 2nd 3rd and 4th be really going hard...

Homestead n acres homes be getiin down but them neighborhood aint no gutta lol them homes be all sweep up and clean DH (denvor harbor) it be lots of floods ova there bt 2nd ward go way hard jjust walk down tha strret :2cents: :2cents: but from navigation rd murdanolia (magnolia) mason park all be really getting dow lmao shyt even scardale be getting down lol but shit shouthaut to telephone to broadway..

Dont get it twisted SE got its hoods bt shit mlk, dead end lol im not even getting into all that thats like tha ocean there lmao..

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 14:31 | 4740564 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

ENGLISH MOTHERFUCKER ... DO YOU SPEAK IT?????

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 15:17 | 4740790 Ying-Yang
Ying-Yang's picture

It was a Fight Club test... and you passed.

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 15:20 | 4740801 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Well played.

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 16:28 | 4741033 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

I was wondering how he was gonna dig that one out of the deep corner.

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 15:19 | 4740799 holmes
holmes's picture

Does it take a lot of energy to write like an idiot?

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 01:45 | 4742529 sylviasays
sylviasays's picture

California is Mexico's largest suburb. 

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 14:28 | 4740549 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

I, for one, welcome our new Mexican overlords. At least they're up front with their corruption. I also like the food.

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 14:45 | 4740630 SoberOne
SoberOne's picture

Don't look at me; I voted for Kodos.

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 17:26 | 4741196 the squeezle
the squeezle's picture

hail Ants!

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 14:22 | 4740532 e2thex
e2thex's picture

 

 

Does this mean they are going to update the board game RISK ?

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 14:30 | 4740557 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Damn I called that right on the money :) 

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 15:22 | 4740806 NOZZLE
NOZZLE's picture

Cool, what an O'blast its going to be driving from Belgrade to Russia and only having to cross one country to get there.

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 15:24 | 4740819 mccvilb
mccvilb's picture

King's Gambit declined. Obama opens with a flourish,  taunts Putin with Kerry and Nuland, but these fools expose their lack of game early.

Putin refuses to get suckered into a simplistic Trojan Horse opening move; instead chooses to wait patiently while he amasses troops and weapons on the fringes, develops a plan to control the middle, attack on the flank while anticipating the West's next moves. Once Vlad understands he also employs the old KGB psychological pressure of the unknown to provoke reaction.

Suddenly it all changes when Crimea votes to rejoin Russia. Putin goes from playing the evil black pieces to the untarnished white ones both figuratively and metaphorically.

That sudden unexpected exchange wasn't foreseen by Oblunder, and now a Crimean black rook down, as each jurisdiction chooses to secede he faces the humiliation of a protracted and public emasculation of his world image. His only option now is another much bigger distraction. Send in the clowns.

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 16:56 | 4741110 Alethian
Alethian's picture

Beautiful.

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 13:48 | 4740389 Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

Let it happen.

Putin can do whateverthefuck he wants.

Who's gonna stand in his way?

Sanctionman obongo?

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 13:58 | 4740437 youngman
youngman's picture

Both Russia nd China know this...and that is why they are spreading their wings right now....

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 14:32 | 4740508 Jack Napier
Jack Napier's picture

The real question is not who will stand in Putin's way. It's who has a gun to his back enforcing this global chess game.

If you've seen somebody's face, you can rest assured they do not make any decisions.

The West was coerced into giving Putin an excuse to move, and he was coerced into taking advantage of the opportunity. Everything else is just staging for the theatrics.

By the way, the answer lies in Basel.

You can't just replace a world reserve currency that's served its purpose without a series of events necessitating the change. People might get wise to you. The rise of the East must appear natural, not pre-planned.

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 14:41 | 4740613 SumTing Wong
SumTing Wong's picture

And China has been pissing on Japan and Vietnam. If I'm Taiwan, I'm getting a little nervous...

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 14:21 | 4740529 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

youngman      Both Russia nd China know this...and that is why they are spreading their wings right now....

---

Russia is using patience. They hold the cards. They hold the gas. And they can continue to force the West to pay Russia for Ukraine's late natural gas bills. Russia doesn't have to rush in. Even if the current pro Russian separatists get clobbered, there will always be pro Russian separatists that they can use later on. Putin isn't afraid of sanctions. Putin is waiting on another major mistep by the West.

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 14:04 | 4740453 Lore
Lore's picture

THE PEOPLE can do whateverthefuck they want.  Let's remember that the status quo is NOT THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE. To wit: "a thoroughly criminalized government...prepared to [supply arms to] terrorist groups."  ...SOUND FAMILIAR?

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 14:12 | 4740488 Confused
Confused's picture

They are all just acting in concert. To bad we never get to see the conductor. 

 

Internet ID by any other name:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/07/world/europe/russia-quietly-tightens-r...

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 14:37 | 4740584 stuman
stuman's picture

"All the world's indeed a stage

And we are merely players

Performers and portrayers

Each another's audience

Outside the gilded cage"

- RUSH "Limelight" 

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 18:42 | 4741460 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

.

He's got a problem with his power

With weapons in patrol

He's got to walk a fine line

And keep his self-control

- RUSH "New World Man"

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 14:39 | 4740585 stuman
stuman's picture

~ double post ~ 

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 14:18 | 4740513 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Yeah, I don't want to see a major war in Europe or an imperialist new Russia, but something to ponder:

 

http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/?&kt=800&lat=35.0072838&lng=-106.58767...

 

That is the approximate location of the one of the entrances to the Kirtland Underground Munitions Storage Complex.  And by munitions, they mean nuclear munitions.  In other words, in the event of a nuclear exchange, you're god damned right it is going to get hit.  I set that for a ground burst, which means a lot more fallout.  Now then, let me put it this way, if an 800kt nuke, which is in the Russian arsenal, were to go off at that location, and I were looking in that direction when it went off from my home, there is a pretty good chance that I would be blinded.  I would avoid the fallout under the most likely wind conditions, but there's no telling.  If they were to do an air burst there would be less fallout, but a lot more immediate deaths and casualties. 

 

How well I would fare depends on a) where I am looking when it goes off and b) the wind direction.  Good thing fallout takes a little while to come down, and I know some seriously back back roads.

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 15:41 | 4740889 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Look on the bright side .... at least those murderous fucks in the Albuquerque Police Department get vaporized. 

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 15:45 | 4740906 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

LO-FUCKING-L!  I guess that's a way of looking at the situation where the glass is half full.

 

 

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 15:45 | 4740905 mccvilb
mccvilb's picture

Thanks. Bookmarked and stored next to my GMC-300E.

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 13:49 | 4740395 Marigold
Marigold's picture

Fuck Nuland !

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 13:56 | 4740429 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

More 20th century thinking.

Eastern Ukraine is rich agriculturally (industrial thought is 20th century, it requires oil).  It is worth having for the crops.  The South and Odessa, similarly valuable and is the only port.  The Crimea is a naval base.

Ambitions for more?  Why? 

These military bullshit projections again and again and again lose sight of oil's utter and overwhelming primacy.  Civilization depends on oil.  Not territory.

Russia can have Romania and Poland and all the rest.  Those countries will beg to be annexed in a few years of cold. 

The battles are fought with the spigots.  Not with tanks.

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 14:09 | 4740472 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Correction:

THEIR civilization depends on oil.

OUR civilization will depend on 5 acres and a mule.

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 14:23 | 4740536 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

True.

BTW folks, that map.  Ukraine's only refineries of significance are in Odessa and just east of the Dneiper Dnepropretovsk.

IOW, the west will have no fuel the EU doesn't ship in.

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 14:27 | 4740548 cifo
cifo's picture

Crash, Romania is pretty independent from Russian oil and gas. Remember that during WW2 it was one of Germany's main oil supplier.

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 14:33 | 4740572 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

http://mazamascience.com/OilExport/

 

Select Romania.  The past is the past.

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 14:43 | 4740594 Continue With This
Continue With This's picture

You are wrong.

 

http://www.neweasterneurope.eu/articles-and-commentary/1169-prospects-fo...

Romania only imports about 30% of its gas needs. The rest comes from internal production.

 

Also you should know that Romania has more gas reserves than the UK  has.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_natural_gas_proven_res...

 

Romania is pretty independent energetically.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Romania

From 2004 to 2009 TerraWatts/hour imports of Romania decreased by 42%.

 

Regarding oil, you should know that Romania has the largest refining capacity in South Eastern Europe, that far exceed the domestic needs.

A lot of oil we import is refined and exort, making us a nice buck.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrochemical_industry_in_Romania

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 14:45 | 4740633 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

The data is from BP.

Thu, 05/08/2014 - 14:58 | 4740705 Continue With This
Continue With This's picture

What is that supposed to mean?

That BP is lying?

You mean BritishPetroleum are just a bunch of stupid idiots that don't know anything about gas?

Just because you may not like them, doesn't mean they are not a  good source of information.

 

Probably the data is not 100% exact, but certaintly with a fidelity of 97%.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!