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BofA Revises Long-Term GDP Forecast, Sees No US Recession During Next Decade

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Who cares about their atrocious Q1 GDP forecast (because of "snow" of course), or how much El Nino, La Nina, or any other climatic conditions will impact their Q2, Q3, Q4 and so on economic prediction?

Bank of America that's who.

In what should be the biggest joke of the day, Bank of America has just released its GDP forecast not for the next several quarter, but making a mockery of the IMF's 2022 Greek GDP forecast, it predicts US growth for the next decade!

The punchline: after expecting a surge in growth to 3.4% in 2016, the bailed out bank tapers off its forecast which evens off at 2.2%... some time in 2025. And throughout this period its crack economist team headed by Ethan Harris anticipates precisely.... zero recessions.

Indeed, in what will be a first time in history, the US is expected to grow for 16 consecutive years since its last official, NBER-defined recession (which "ended" in the summer of 2009) without entering a recession.

Here is how Harris explains this joke:

Obviously, there is considerable uncertainty in forecasting many years out, so these should be viewed as rough baseline numbers. For example,if history is our guide, at some point in the next decade the US will experience a recession, but predicting a recession far in advance is almost impossible.

Well, why not. Considering Biotech ETFs just arbitrarily exclude any negative and low earnings companies from their basket P/E calculation, it only makes sense that when predicting US growth one simply excludes all the recessions.

More humor from Bank of America:

Long-run forecasting is very different than short-run forecasting. Some of the key assumptions we use are as follows:

 

1. We expect real GDP growth to converge to potential growth after 2016, which we expect to be around 2.2%.

2. We expect that the long-run unemployment rate (the NAIRU) resides around 6%, due in part to demographic factors.

3. We expect the Fed to on average hit its 2% target for the PCE deflator, and the other inflation numbers are modeled off that assumption.

4. We expect interest rates to converge to slightly lower long-run levels due to ongoing fiscal headwinds and lower potential growth

Or, said otherwise, "we took a long-term GDP chart and extrapolated." Hence: value added.

 

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Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:14 | 4743171 SelfGov
SelfGov's picture

Recession?

 

If it doesn't happen before oil production peaks in the US again it will happen shortly after.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:27 | 4743227 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

BOA = Bag of Ass forecasting.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:41 | 4743266 Manthong
Manthong's picture

I think I finally figured out how the Fed and bankers think policy really works.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=2VSYmGSJtCA

 

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:43 | 4743286 Tabarnaque
Tabarnaque's picture

Whatever these clowns are smoking must be really strong.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 11:11 | 4743417 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I'm pretty sure they are smoking this:

 

http://youtu.be/Su-WucK8VRw

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 11:56 | 4743634 Keyser
Keyser's picture

Obviously someone showed up at BofA corp HQ with a shipment of nail guns for the C-level folks... 

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:43 | 4743275 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

And BoA is so certain of this prediction they are willing to put your money where their mouths are ... whether you like it or not.

On the bright side, BoA says inflation will be very low for the next decade, and housing is gonna boom. Makes me wanna go out and buy more shit-nobody-needs.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 11:27 | 4743489 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

thats all i needed to hear. selling my pms and pouring into a triple levered s&p fund...

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:42 | 4743282 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

In other news Bank of America said it is not technically bankrupt, holds every employee to the highest moral standards, and that the next iteration of the hundred dollar bill will have a picture of a unicorn shitting skittles as it jumps over a rainbow.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:48 | 4743300 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

gonna steal that one...

Hew Banzi - graphic please.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:47 | 4743301 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

BOA = Bunghole Opening Approaching.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 11:11 | 4743418 Chief Wonder Bread
Chief Wonder Bread's picture

BOA forecasting = {Bitch On Adderal} forecasting.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 12:21 | 4743713 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

Isn't Taint of America the same outfit that overlooked about $4 billion in funds with their financials?

With accounting like that, I imagine they can forecast the shit out of the weather, too.

But, really, can you have a recession in the midst of the greater depression?

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 20:20 | 4745254 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

BOA -- definitely gone round the twist!

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:32 | 4743246 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

Govt pension funds are saved! This kinda GDP growth plus ZiRP, that's your gold plated 8% right there. Shop till you drop unionized parasites, live the dream.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:40 | 4743273 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

"It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it."

Upton Sinclair

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:44 | 4743290 remain calm
remain calm's picture

BOA this is great news. My weather man just forcasted sunny and 76 for the next 10 years. What a fucking coincidence, its amazing how our predictive power has improved with these new super computers.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 11:47 | 4743590 GlobalCtzn
GlobalCtzn's picture

These twits have it all figured out. They control the markets. They control the weather. They are not manipulators, they are masters. Nothing but solid growth and blue skies ahead folks.............

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:14 | 4743172 Fukushima Sam
Fukushima Sam's picture

Moar printing.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:30 | 4743238 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

One can safely assume printing is involved in this "forecast"? I wonder if their baseline is $500B per year and then increase by 10% per year?  So, by 2022, the Fed's balance sheet will be $20 Trillion, which would = inflation ramped GDP.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:30 | 4743240 Flux
Flux's picture

I don't know about you, Sam, but I'm gonna rather enjoy watching Zero Hedge go throught the 5 stages of grief...

I think we're at Denial right now.

Heh.

 

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:32 | 4743244 Flux
Flux's picture

Or have we moved into Anger?

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:38 | 4743270 Tenshin Headache
Tenshin Headache's picture

Still on Patience.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:55 | 4743339 Redneck Hippy
Redneck Hippy's picture

Definitely Anger.  I don't think Patience is in there. Plus most ZHers have none of it.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 11:38 | 4743544 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

why don't you educate us then, genius. All of our growth since around the year 2000 has been based on fed money printing, and artificially low interest rates. Thats it. which means we haven't had any reall growth for over a decade. You can't maintain a comsumption based economy that only functions on the perpetual creation of moar debt forever. We are now approaching that stage where this reality comes true. How could we have growth for the next decade without a recession when we have been in a depression for the last 14 years. The only reason we don't have soup lines with thousands lined up aroudn the block is that soup kitchens have been replaced by SNAP cards. Those soup lines are now at your local walmart

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:14 | 4743174 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

WOW! Our dear leader has saved us again. Sell you a bridge for a good price. ;)

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:15 | 4743176 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

There's obviously some problem with how these banks and governments measure "GDP" (whatever that is...) and how the rest of us see it...

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:48 | 4743302 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

What will continue to expand is the amount of their monopoly money available to be loaned at interest.  Maybe they can keep credit expanding forever, if our imaginations allow for it, and loan forgiveness/defaults become the norm and are of little or no consequence.  It's value is completely imaginary, after all.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 11:18 | 4743436 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Kredit,

Remember that:

GDP = C + I + G + (Ex - Im)

Where G = Government Spending.

If you subtract all the QE and deficit spending since 2008; the 'Great Recession' never ended.

Clearly, BoA expects the deficit spending to continue.

PARTY ON WAYNE!!!...

 

 

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 11:39 | 4743549 CPL
CPL's picture

The equation only works if governments are honest about how broke they are.  The likeihood of that happening today is around 0.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:15 | 4743178 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

B of A forecast = analytical rice-a-roni. 

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:15 | 4743181 Commodore64
Commodore64's picture

And they lived happily ever after....

 

The End.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:17 | 4743190 James-Morrison
James-Morrison's picture

Word.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:20 | 4743203 OC Sure
OC Sure's picture

Power Point.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:23 | 4743214 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

Banana

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:26 | 4743226 Hulk
Hulk's picture

A baby's arm holding an Apple !!!

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 13:49 | 4744108 L G Butz PhD
L G Butz PhD's picture

Tubes!

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:17 | 4743189 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Good grief. This garbage isn't worth reading.

Is it Happy Hour yet?

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:27 | 4743230 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

It's 5 o'clock somewhere ;)

 

 

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:20 | 4743200 OC Sure
OC Sure's picture

 

 

 

There is an inverse relationship which is immutable between tyranny and productive growth.

BOA's prediction will come true only to the degree that tyranny is rolled back.

We live in tyranny.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:20 | 4743207 monopoly
monopoly's picture

This has to be a spoof. Not even BofA would spill forth dribble and crap like that. Then again, this is the worst bank on the planet. Oh well.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:28 | 4743208 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Of course they see no recession, due to the fact that we can't get out of the fucking depression we have been in since 2000.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 11:29 | 4743496 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

exactly. at this point a mere ressecion would be an improvment

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:25 | 4743213 youngman
youngman's picture

If you look at our labor force reducing...more people on EBT cards and Disability payments....the baby boomers getting older and retiring maybe...Obamacare in full force...a flood of illegal immigrants....not gonna happen...even Apple buying Beats is not going to turn this country around..I am pretty negative..but to many people on the government teat now to turn around

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:24 | 4743218 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

In the history of long term forecasts like this I doubt any of them ever included a recession several years down the road. As such any such long term forecast always has and always will be uselesss.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:26 | 4743222 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

"Our accounting is flawless". "We are a trusted name in banking". Bank of America, a continuing criminal enterprise.  

We beat Bank of America in court the other day using this New MEXICO Supreme Court Decision...Romero V. BONY. Bank of New York? Fuck you too! Ha-ha-ha. AND NOW the Romero's are have filed their countersuit! Banksters are being beaten in NM and they are not happy to no longer stealing houses. 

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:27 | 4743232 DavidC
DavidC's picture

Tyler(s),
You're on fire today! Brilliant!

DavidC

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:29 | 4743237 wmbz
wmbz's picture

Pure tripe, and to think these clowns get a paycheck! I picked the wrong path in life I could write much more interesting fantsy bullshit!

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:34 | 4743251 annabelleballow
annabelleballow's picture

Technically speaking BofA did not get into trouble, they bailed out Merrill Lynch. 

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:34 | 4743253 eucalyptus
eucalyptus's picture

is melissa meyer still over there? Great ass on that one. 

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:35 | 4743257 Bemused Observer
Bemused Observer's picture

Why don't they just cut the crap and go all-out? Tell your investors that you are predicting accelerated growth, beginning on Thursday of next week, that will bring a return to prosperity to America, and will see the dawning of a new Golden Age of innovation and space travel that will open entire new whole-planet sized markets to investors. Then create a 'fund' that allows them to 'get in on the ground floor'.

They'll trample their own children to get in line for that and we'll get another hundred points on the Dow.

 

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:49 | 4743306 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

And what would distinguish that from what we get thrown at us day after day? Remember these guys aren't writing these words for carbon based lifeforms to read. Algos can't distinguish truth from lie so you just have to get your propaganda into the newsfeeds for them to read.

01101000101001011010101001100101 means buy moar!.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:36 | 4743260 Rainman
Rainman's picture

I forecast a whole shitload of 'intellectual property' monetization in our future.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:37 | 4743262 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Oil might have something different to say about the next ten years.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 11:38 | 4743471 CPL
CPL's picture

It only has to hit a magic price and the world shuts down the same day.  To speed up that 'magic price', the interest being accrued on all the debt in the world right now is acting as it's own inflation adjustments.  Quadrillions of dollars in derivatives that eclipse both the wholesale and retail value of the entire planet...8000 times.

Even at .25% on a quadrillion dollars in IOU's accumulated over 120 years, Earth's entire yearly GDP isn't remotely enough to meet two and a half months of interest charges now.  The interest accrued is still counted as fungible because it's debt.  Debt on Earth is 'money'.  The more fiat/debt it accidentally prints because of the mechanism regarding interest charges, the more everything costs because the money supply continues to balloon without any help what so ever.  That's the nature of interest and debt in large numbers.

...The real question is, when does it price itself out of the hands of people that work for a living.  Like some morning when I look on a webcam of morning traffic in any metro area and the roads are half empty because no one can afford gas to go to work. 

But long before that happens though; public transportation will collapse because they weren't built to run on sliding energy prices. 

Public transportation is only built to offer basic public transportation and 'fit' into a municipal service offer.  Considering that most of the public transport systems are looted by their city counsels for some abstract reasoning, the outcome is predictable.  It will fail, drivers get laid off, less bus service, price goes up and all those 'feudal lords/ladies' are shit out of luck once the help can't show up.

Worse yet, emergency services.  120 years ago a broken leg or a hand was serious enough to kill someone.  Along came the ambulance, suddenly what was big and dangerous is viewed as a simple fix.  Take away the ambulances, and suddenly a heart attack, a broken hand, a large wound becomes serious. 

Same goes for the Police, the cruisers enable them for first response.  In a large mega city, that just won't be possible without fuel.  Cities will have to ethier hire more police officers and spread out in community arrangements, start foot patrols from broom closets leveraging all he wireless tech to communicate and process the law.  Or spend budgets on fuel instead of people that do the work.  Same can be said of all professions and industries btw. 

So it's not when it runs out, it's when can't be afforded is when the trouble starts and trouble started around 2008.

 

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:37 | 4743264 Wm the Shrubber
Wm the Shrubber's picture

It is their job, as a ward and extension of the government, to bandy the party line and push the propoganda.  There is no analysis here.  There is no critical economic perspective.  It's just a part of the confidence game with the appointed players acting out their roles.  And, it is becoming evermore transparent and irrelevant.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:41 | 4743280 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

'They didn't build that.' - The Kenyan

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:42 | 4743281 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

My Federal and Provincial governments both tell us that they are on track to have balanced their spending budgets in 2017 and are very proud of themselves for that.  Party on!!!

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:42 | 4743284 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

So they briefed Bofa on WWIII?

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:42 | 4743285 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

Not worth the copper it's transmitted through

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:45 | 4743293 The worst trader
The worst trader's picture

This is great news! Going all in! BTFATH

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:46 | 4743294 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Wasn't BOA the one that was bailed out and giving credit cards to illegals?

Angelo Mozilo should come back he would do very well in this crooked environment.

 

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:50 | 4743309 Bernoulli
Bernoulli's picture

I have to repeat it here (because BofA is clearly an insider!):

GS NWO in the making.

It's easy!

1) They short everything they can but keep predicting recovery (=mom and pop keep buying)

2) Simultaneously they have their buddies Janet accelerate tapering, Mario keep talking without acting and Christine roughen up world economies

3) Watch it all come crashing down (at a pre-agreed date of course, when all of a sudden the outlooks all change and something really "surprising" will happen)

4) Reap the profits

5) Make sure all outsider companies and banks don't get bailed out this time... (politicians and central banks worldwide "setting an example"!)

6) Pick up tons of companies and assets for 2-5 cents on the dollar

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:51 | 4743317 SMC
SMC's picture

US growth for the next decade? ROFL!!!

Perhaps the propagandists have found a way to quantify the "growth" of crony-capitalism, corruption, thuggery, real inflation, infrastructure decay, average waist size and bull$hit!

The US will be lucky to survive the next decade.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:52 | 4743328 thefreeprepper
thefreeprepper's picture

They are projecting no recession for the next decade because the Fed said yesterday it would take them 5 - 8 years to bring down their balance sheet. Which is a laughable proposition, but we are not allowed to have a recession during that timeframe. ;)

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:54 | 4743335 OldE_Ant
OldE_Ant's picture

hahahahaha

Late April fools..

Here is what I predict. 

Winter will be cold and its not gonna end starting 1000 years from now.

Here a favorite weather prediction fact from about 15-20 years ago not sure if it's still true today or not.

When comparing accuracy of weather prediction using the following two methods:

1. Weather forcast from NOAA weather center (or local weatherman who uses it)

2. Tomorrow's weather will be just like today.

Guess which method worked the best..

 

 

 

 

You got it 15-20 years ago it was #2.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:56 | 4743347 khakuda
khakuda's picture

All we would have needed was one more quarter like Q1 and we would have had one.  Q2 ain't over Ethan.  If war breaks and people decide to watch CNN, look out.

The fact that economists are saying recessions are a thing of the past probably means one is closer than we think.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 10:59 | 4743359 HowardBeale
HowardBeale's picture

35% "real" GDP increase; 69% nominal...

Hmmm. What's that work out to in inflation world? 

BOA can make such ludicrous predictions, as it surely won't exist long before the morons behind this fairy tale are proven wrong--as if anyone takes them seriously even now.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 11:01 | 4743365 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

Here, let's make it EZ on the recession prediction front.

We're (still) in one - if you used real numbers or bothered to live in the real world.

Maybe someone ought to take a stab when, if ever, we leave THIS recession.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 11:02 | 4743373 ncdirtdigger
ncdirtdigger's picture

Bill Clinton eliminated the business cycle. There will never be another recession.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 11:19 | 4743454 kikk
kikk's picture

I'm sorry, you're wrong. It was Gordon Brown. Honest.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 11:18 | 4743443 Typing Typer
Typing Typer's picture

Thank goodness! All our problems are solved! Yay! I'm going to celebrate!

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 11:23 | 4743466 falak pema
falak pema's picture

now that is one wet dream of an Oligarchy induced national hard on ! 

That should bring smiles to the lovely faces of Janet, Lady <Lagarde and Hillary. What a trio ! 

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 11:31 | 4743503 SweetDoug
SweetDoug's picture

'

'

You never actually ever hear people say, "It's different this time!"

 

But when ya read betweens the lines…

 

•?•
V-V

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 11:41 | 4743560 PhiBetaZappa
PhiBetaZappa's picture

Just remove the word recession from all the languages on the planet and we have zero 'recessions'.

That was easy.

 

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 11:57 | 4743641 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

Wow. Looks like Federal Folly and Fairy Dust for all, as far as the eye can see.... Nice.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 12:14 | 4743698 nobodysfool
nobodysfool's picture

Recessions? We don't need no stinkin recessions! We need that kind of growth to support the takers...Just keep the free stuff coming amigos. America, what a great country! No work? No problem! Just remember illegal ain't really illegal, come on in the waters fine!

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 12:44 | 4743807 JC2
JC2's picture

Looks to me like Bernard Madoff has taken to writing investment articles for BofA while he sits behind bars.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 12:52 | 4743835 RMolineaux
RMolineaux's picture

The uniformity and universality of growth predictions by our various institutions promotes a deep suspicion of mandated orchestration.  Has this something to do with the elections in November, or is it simple desperation facing the knowledge that there are no remedies left to undertake.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 13:18 | 4743975 damicol
damicol's picture

Hmmm yes well ok,  thaaat looks to be in order,   yes yes, I see that the numbers are adding up, yes  erm , well  ok then, right,  then so we have the paperwork and the projections,,

The only thing left to do now is decide how much

So just how much is it you want to borrow again.

Yellen (bag lady)

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 13:27 | 4744012 laomei
laomei's picture

Well, obviously, they envisioned a situation that doesn't result in insolvency, and that situation is this.  

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 13:53 | 4744123 the wet spot
the wet spot's picture

Sweet, nothing but roses from here on.  "U.S.A., U.S.A., U.S.A.!!"

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 15:25 | 4744512 polo007
polo007's picture

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/05/05/usa-federalreserve-blinder-idUKL2N0NR01O20140505

May 4 (Reuters) - After an extended period of relative peace among members of the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate policy-making committee, fireworks will erupt in coming months as they debate how to reduce the central bank's multi-trillion-dollar balance sheet, a former vice-chairman of the central bank said on Sunday.

"The Fed may get more raucous about what to do next as tapering draws to a close," Alan Blinder, a banking industry consultant and economics professor at Princeton University said in a speech to the Investment Management Consultants Association in Boston.

The cacophony is likely to "rattle the markets" beginning in late summer as traders debate how precipitously the Fed will turn from reducing its purchases of U.S. government debt and mortgage securities to actively selling it.

The Open Market Committee will announce its strategy in October or December, he said, but traders will begin focusing earlier on what will happen with rates as some members of the rate-setting panel begin openly contradicting Fed Chair Janet Yellen, he said.

The Fed built up its balance sheet over the last five-and-a-half years as it bought securities to lower interest rates in attempts to stimulate the weak economy.

But hawkish members of the Federal Open Market Committee who worry about inflation, such as Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher and Philadelphia Fed Bank President Charles Plosser, are likely to call for aggressive sales and contradict plans by Yellen and other doves in the majority who want to keep rates low as long as unemployment continues at high levels, Blinder told the group of stockbrokers and investment advisers.

Blinder, a supporter of Yellen who served on President Bill Clinton's Council of Economic Advisers in the mid-90s, said the "perils of a big balance sheet are not so horrible."

The Fed held only about $900 million on its balance sheet before Lehman Brothers' collapse in 2008 triggered the financial crisis, but will "never go back there" from its current level of about $4.25 trillion, Blinder said.

A balance sheet of $1.5 to $2 trillion will likely be the new normal, he said.

He congratulated Yellen on artfully backing away from former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's assertion that rates can begin rising once the U.S. unemployment rate hits about 6.5 percent.

The Federal Funds rate that determines short-term interest rate will not rise anytime soon, Blinder said, noting guidance from Yellen that she is watching several indicators of the economy.

The housing market, consumer spending and other parts of the U.S. economy are still recovering very slowly, said Blinder, adding that it will be six to 12 months after the Fed completely stops purchasing securities before rates start to rise.

Fri, 05/16/2014 - 12:58 | 4766941 jubber
jubber's picture

Gisajob

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