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The Miracle Of Modern-Day Keynesian Dreams (In 1 Insane Chart)

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With various extremely well paid sell-side economist slashing Q1 expectations for growth even further, we though it would be worth a glance at the ever-rising estimates for Q2 (that Goldman started this morning). Consensus for Q2 has now spiked to +3.3% (its highest since tracking began) as the Keynesian hockey-stick-believers have gone full bounce-tard now...

 

Well they did nail Q1!!

 

Chart: Bloomberg

 

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Fri, 05/09/2014 - 19:06 | 4745094 Pareto
Pareto's picture

Too many sigmas and contradictions.. Black Swan rising.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 19:11 | 4745107 Slave
Slave's picture

BULLISH

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 19:21 | 4745134 knukles
knukles's picture

The Triumph of American WooHooStompyNomics

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 20:13 | 4745232 philipat
philipat's picture

With 70% of the US economy comprising consumer consumption, economic growth can only come on the back of an increase in consumption. With declining net real disposable income, that isn't going to happen.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 20:52 | 4745331 knukles
knukles's picture

SEC JOKE

SEC employee walks out of a club with a girl last night.
She slipped her hand inside his jeans, squeezed his cock and said, "Yours or mine?"
He says, "That's mine."

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 21:10 | 4745366 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

a good 50% of the "economy" is government circle jerking

Sat, 05/10/2014 - 10:25 | 4745929 philipat
philipat's picture

You mean O and Reggie?

Sat, 05/10/2014 - 11:31 | 4746043 all-priced-in
all-priced-in's picture

Don't forget to consider government backed student loans & disability payments - two areas with "good' growth rates.

/s/

 

 

 

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 19:09 | 4745100 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

How better to suck more muppets into an overpriced market than promote the hope of an economy reaching "escape velocity" as the Fed tapers.  Insiders need SOMEBODY to sell their overpriced shares to.

FiatFUBAR.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 19:10 | 4745103 Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

lol  "Full bounce-tard" sounds like an amusement park ride that I want to go on.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 19:15 | 4745115 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Until you were slung out the chair at 80 feet and suddenly you ask yourself, did I really need to take that ride, cause I didn't really want to die.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 19:28 | 4745143 knukles
knukles's picture

All kidding aside.
When I was a young man, one time at a county fair type hoedown, I wound up at the very top of a Ferris wheel that had stuck.  Plum ass stuck.  With a girl I thought I'd like to paw and turns out she was not only frigid but apparently hated my very guts, and the whole fucking 24 days (it seemed like) to get down, she scowled, sneered and bitched like it was all my fault.  Turned out she had mental problems. 

So when I get home mom asks me how whatzername was, she's such a nice girl, and there I was, caught in a clean and sober ZH type reality of life versus the spellbound fascinations of a higher power doing its best to transform reality to its liking
My introduction to WooHooStompyNomics

 

Sat, 05/10/2014 - 06:07 | 4745772 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Sounds like you hated your dad for some reason, now that your old you can make your own decisions. Aging sucks, if you can avoid it, I suggest you do so.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 19:12 | 4745110 novictim
novictim's picture

QE is not Keynesian policy, dipshits.  

Jobs programs like the Works Progress Administration (WPA) are Keynesian policy and we have not seen Keynesian policy since the end of the 1960s  

Can we please start learning what Keynesian policy is before we keep making these stupid posting, Tyler?

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 19:34 | 4745150 knukles
knukles's picture

Ah, but is neo-Keyensian economics... of the WhooHooStompyFeet school*.

 

* yes, I know it's all the same left right etc, but I along with a lotta other folks are so fucking sick and tired of whats going on and Stompy is at the helm "so to speak" so he and Nazi Pelousy, Harry's Reed et al, get to take the shit alongside the riches creamed from the system.. and you all shoulda heard me when W was mumbling sweet crap to the neo-cons... I in no way discriminate... everybody gets theirs...  Goats... goat stories... nothing is as it seems...

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 19:33 | 4745151 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re:  Can we please start learning what Keynesian policy is before we keep making these stupid posting, Tyler?

We like labeling any economist that likes something-for-nothin' a Keynesian,  but yeah - it's wrong.  They aren't all bearded either.  It's more an obsession now, really.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 19:35 | 4745156 knukles
knukles's picture

Fuck Paul Krugman

there, had to get it out of my system before I could poop well tonight

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 19:39 | 4745160 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Enjoy!

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 20:46 | 4745212 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

".....before I could poop well tonight"

sounds like you just did...

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 20:59 | 4745346 intric8
intric8's picture

QE is a last resort extension of fiscal stimulus, employed when the latter measures have failed. Wrapping yourself up in semantics is exactly what your idols, the economists, do.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 22:28 | 4745469 novictim
novictim's picture

Huh?  Did that make sense to you?

Was there a some massive infrastructure project over the past 10 years that I missed?   Did the USA Government hire so many people that unemployment dropped to 3% and I missed it?

The principle that Keynes found so compelling but that is entirely absent from your comment involves TRICKLE UP economics.  The idea of Keynes is that consumers drive the economy.  As a country, we used to know that.

Paying bankers and financial companies billions of dollars when their bets go south is the opposite of Keynes.

 

Sat, 05/10/2014 - 07:55 | 4745729 intric8
intric8's picture

"Was there a some massive infrastructure project over the past 10 years that I missed?" - If the 2009 arra is not keynesian enough for you, i dont know what is. over 800 billion in stimulus, though perhaps not enough roads and bridges were built to your satisfaction

edit- i'll play your link girl just this once, 816 billion paid out since 2009 with 111 billion allocated for transportation. All yours - http://www.recovery.gov/arra/Pages/default.aspx

Sat, 05/10/2014 - 12:30 | 4746156 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

We could have used an extra dam in the Sierras the last couple of years. And the roads suck. But a big part of the P.O.R. comstituency doesn't actually want a job, and even less so one involving shoveling. So they stimulated the sitting around economy.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 19:16 | 4745117 Spungo
Spungo's picture

Of course it's Keynesian. Borrow tons of money that you have no intention of ever paying back, something happens, economy recovers.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 19:39 | 4745161 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

 

Actually, the Keynesian prayer goes:

We must borrow more money,
To stimulate demand,
So that jobs are created,
And prosperity ensues,
Then we pay off our loans.

The "Keynesian" prayer, chanted by the likes of Krugman, goes:

We must borrow more money,
To stimulate demand,
So that jobs are created,
And prosperity ensues,
Then we borrow more if we want more prosperity.

See the difference?

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 20:33 | 4745281 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

So did anyone actually think the loans would ever be repaid? I suppose Marx's communism was actually OK because IF his dictatorship had actually produced the enligtened statist population he dreamed of, we would all be happy communists today. The problem with all of the "systems" is that their sole purpose is to overcome human tendencies. To make us more uniform, monolithic in our values, while ignoring everything that defines our humanity. The communists thought this could be done through murder, coersion and re-education to an extreme level. It failed, but we will keep trying.

No one ever thought the money would be repaid, always assuming it would be negated by growth, but it is always used to defend the core ideology. If only....

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 20:48 | 4745322 intric8
intric8's picture

It all ends at your line 2.

It stimulates a demand for money on the part of banks and corporations. Then it promptly goes down the rabbit hole.

Unreasonable productivity demands, outsourcing and global wage arbitrage just kill it for the american worker. Very little trickles down.

What i want to know is how the most violently oriented and consumerist nation on earth will address its ongoing and long term economic decline. When will the fundamentals of our country shift from reckless reliance on debt to one of long term sustainability?

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 19:19 | 4745122 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Here's the COT #'s for anyone that cares?

 
    EUR net long 33K vs long 26K prior
    JPY net short 61K vs short 70K prior
    GBP net long 41K vs long 44K prior
    AUD net long 9K vs long 11K prior
    CAD net short 32K vs short 30K prior
    CHF net long 13K vs long 14K prior
    NZD net long 21K vs long 18K prior

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 20:43 | 4745135 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Sunshine and roses, baby!

Now where's my Tootsie Pop!?

The Players with Yourselves Club: 

http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/bb55b081bd/player-with-yourselves-club

Crank up the audio.

R.I.P. Phil Hartman and Telly Savalas.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 19:22 | 4745136 Grouchy Marx
Grouchy Marx's picture

Mean reversion. Warm weather bounce. Peace dividends. Hope for change. Keynsian vindication. Blind faith. 

the cheerleaders must be getting pretty hoarse.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 19:42 | 4745166 Milton Waddams
Milton Waddams's picture

You forgot pent-up demand. All that CONsumption by conSUMERs that was postponed due to heretofore never experienced cold and snow during winter is bound to be unleased in the form of a virtuous cycle of credit-fueled spending. Summer of Recovery-er. Greenest Shoots!

 

Let's light this candle!

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 19:24 | 4745137 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

"I've fallen and I get 'print' myself up."

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 19:37 | 4745140 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Your avatar is "Broccoli" , stollen from another great Z/H poster. Beat it! [ i still like you}

  P.S. Do you know why it looks like your're(sp) pissing sideways?

 
Binocular vision - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 19:28 | 4745141 logicalman
logicalman's picture

You can't, and you know it.

The Fed can't - those running it know it, but understand the consequences of admitting they can't.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 19:41 | 4745167 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

   @ logicalman

 Expatriate!

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 19:30 | 4745147 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

well since the dismal q1 was weather related q2 is bound to really help our average [/sarc]

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 19:37 | 4745158 knukles
knukles's picture

Shit, buzz, just wait till Q3 and the Il Ninio (or whatever its called thuis time, not too hot, not too cold, but never just fucking right) starts fucking things up, again

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 19:51 | 4745188 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

SUPER-MEGA EL-NINO BREWING. EVERYBODY BEGIN PANICKING AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 20:27 | 4745199 intric8
intric8's picture

The economists are fast approaching cabal recognition, with an agenda to mislead rather than provide an honest assessment of economic reality. There's no pretense whatsoever in attempts to mislead the public, and perhaps that's due to the assumption that americans are largely ingorant of finance, or, a reliance on the falsehood that its difficult to make predictions based on current metrics. They merely appeal to figures. There are no consequences for making mistakes as in other professions like doctors or engineers. Numbers are used as a tool to obfuscate, not remedy. They are being awfully cavalier with a lot of peoples lives to play out their keynesian con game, and they're going to regret it.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 20:38 | 4745293 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

High priests, to save us all...from ourselves and those devilish rich bastards who they roundly condemn, while channeling ever more wealth into their pockets.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 20:00 | 4745201 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

If a chart falls in the woods, does anyone care?

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 20:11 | 4745223 JuliaS
JuliaS's picture

The Pope most certainly does.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 20:12 | 4745214 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  LLong Z/H cigar lounges?

 BitcheZ!

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 20:31 | 4745275 SweetDoug
SweetDoug's picture

'

'

'

Knock off the 1.5%+ supposed inflation and you've got SFA.

 

•?•
V-V

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 20:40 | 4745301 BeerMe
BeerMe's picture

If I could break up the U.S.  I would.  Keynesians could destroy their own shit country.

Fri, 05/09/2014 - 21:13 | 4745371 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

At least the WPA built some useful stuff.

We've had a similar program for 65 years by hiring the marginally employable and giving them Federal and State jobs.

Nothing useful created except a self feeding Leviathan.

Krugman's ideal State.

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