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Key Events In The Coming Week

Tyler Durden's picture




 

This week markets are likely to focus on a few important data prints in DMs, including Philly Fed in the US (expect solid expansionary territory) and 1Q GDP releases in the Euro area (with upside risks). In DMs, the highlights of the week include [on Monday] Japan’s trade balance data and Australia business conditions; [on Tuesday] US retail sales, CPI in Italy and Sweden; [on Wednesday] US PPI, Euro area IP, CPI in France, Germany and Spain; [on Thursday] US Philly Fed, CPI, capacity utilization, Euro area and Japan GDP; and [on Friday] US Univ. of Michigan Confidence. In the US, we expect Philly Fed to print in solidly expansionary territory (at 14, similar to consensus) and to inaugurate what we call the active data period of the month. We also expect CPI inflation to print at 0.3% mom (similar to consensus), and core CPI inflation at 0.18% mom (slightly above consensus).

Monday, May 12

  • Events: Euro area Foreign Ministers meet in Brussels; Speeches by Fed’s Plosser, RBA’s Ellis; Euro area’s Van Rompuy meets Ukraine’s Yatsenyuk in Kiev; India finishes national elections and exit poll becomes available later in the day
  • Japan | Trade Balance BoP Basis (Mar): Consensus -¥1136.3B, previous -¥533.4B
  • Japan | Bank Lending Incl Trusts YoY (Apr): Previous 2.10%
  • Australia | NAB Business Conditions (Apr): Previous 1
  • India | CPI YoY (Apr): consensus 8.40%, previous 8.31%
  • India | Industrial Production YoY (Mar): consensus -1.30%, previous -1.90%
  • Malaysia | Industrial Production YoY (Mar): Previous 6.70%
  • Czech Republic | CPI YoY (Apr): consensus 0.30%, previous 0.20%
  • Romania | CPI YoY (Apr): consensus 1.40%, previous 1.00%
  • Mexico | Industrial Production YoY (Mar): consensus 2.90%, previous 0.70%
  • Also interesting: [DM] US Monthly Budget Sentiment; France BoF Business Sentiment; Switzerland Retail Sales [EM] Israel MP Decision Minutes; Trade Balance in Romania and Russia; Colombia Exports; Mexico ANTAD Same-Store Sales; Romania Industrial Output.

Tuesday, May 13

  • Events: Speeches by Fed’s Lockhart and Lacker, ECB’s Lautenschlaeger and Weidmann, Germany’s Schaeuble, Brazil’s Tombini
  • United States | Retail Sales Advance MoM (Apr): consensus 0.40%, previous (r) 1.20%
  • United States | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM (Apr): consensus 0.60%, previous 0.70%
  • United States | NFIB Small Business Optimism (Apr): Consensus 94.5, previous 93.4
  • Sweden | CPI MoM (Apr): Previous 0.00% (-0.60% yoy)
  • Italy | CPI EU Harmonized YoY (Apr F): consensus 0.60%, previous 0.60%
  • Japan | Money Stock M2 YoY (Apr): Consensus 3.50%, previous 3.50%
  • Australia | Home Loans MoM (Mar): consensus 0.50% previous 2.30%
  • Australia | House Price Index QoQ (1Q): consensus 3.00% (8.60% yoy), previous (r) 3.50% (9.50% yoy)
  • China | Industrial Production YoY (Apr): consensus 8.90%, previous 8.80%
  • China | Fixed Assets Investment YoY (Apr): consensus 17.70%, previous 17.60%
  • China | Retail Sales YoY (Apr): consensus 12.20%, previous 12.20%
  • Hungary | CPI YoY (Apr): consensus 0.20%, previous 0.10%
  • South Africa | Mining Production MoM (Mar): Previous -7.00% (-4.80% yoy)
  • Also interesting: [DM] US Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gasoline, Core Retail Sales, Import Prices; Germany ZEW Survey; UK BRC Sales Monitor; Australia Investment Lending, Commonwealth Budget; NZ Food Prices [EM] Turkey CA; Israel Trade Balance; South Africa Gold Production.

Wednesday, May 14

  • Events: Speeches by Germany’s Merkel and Schaeuble, RBA’s Ellis.
  • United States | PPI Final Demand MoM (Apr): consensus 0.20%, previous 0.50%
  • United States | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Apr): consensus 0.20%, previous 0.60%
  • Euro area | Industrial Production SA MoM (Mar): Consensus -0.10% (1.10% yoy), previous 0.20% (1.70% yoy)
  • Germany | CPI EU Harmonized YoY (Apr F): previous 1.10%
  • France | CPI EU Harmonized YoY (Apr): Previous 0.70%
  • Spain | CPI EU Harmonised YoY (Apr F): consensus 0.30%, previous 0.30%
  • United Kingdom | Claimant Unemployment (Apr): previous -30.4
  • United Kingdom | ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths (Mar): consensus 6.80%, previous 6.90%
  • United Kingdom | Employment 3Mths (Mar): previous 239k
  • Japan | Domestic CGPI MoM (Apr): Consensus 2.70% (2.40% yoy), previous 0.00% (1.70% yoy)
  • New Zealand | Retail Sales Ex Inflation QoQ (1Q): consensus 0.90%, previous 1.20%
  • India | Wholesale Prices YoY (Apr): Consensus 5.60%, previous 5.70%
  • Poland | CPI YoY (Apr): consensus 0.70%, previous 0.70%
  • Colombia | Industrial Production YoY (Mar): consensus 8.30%, previous 2.80%
  • Also interesting: [DM] US Core PPI Finished Goods; BoE Inflation Report, Average Weekly Earnings; Japan Machine Tool Orders; NZ Budget Economic and Fiscal Update, RBNZ Financial Stability Report; South Korea Export and Import Prices, Unemployment [EM] South Africa Retail Sales and SACCI Business Confidence; Hungary MP Decision Minutes and IP; Colombia Retail Sales.

Thursday, May 15

  • United States | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (May): consensus 14.1, previous 16.6
  • United States | CPI MoM (Apr): consensus 0.30%, previous 0.20%
  • United States | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Apr): consensus 0.10%, previous 0.20%
  • United States | Industrial Production MoM (Apr): consensus 0.00%, previous 0.70%
  • United States | Capacity Utilization (Apr): consensus 79.10%, previous 79.20%
  • Euro area | GDP SA QoQ (1Q A): consensus 0.40% (1.10% yoy), previous 0.20% (0.50% yoy)
  • Euro area | CPI YoY (Apr F): consensus 0.70% (0.20% mom), previous (r) 0.05% (0.90% yoy)
  • Germany | GDP SA QoQ (1Q P): consensus 0.70% (2.20% WDA yoy), previous 0.40% (1.40% WDA yoy)
  • France | GDP QoQ (1Q P): previous 0.30% (0.80% yoy)
  • Italy | GDP WDA QoQ (1Q P): previous 0.10% (-0.90% WDA yoy)
  • Japan | GDP SA QoQ (1Q P): Consensus 1.00% (4.20% SA Ann.), previous 0.20% (0.70% SA Ann.)
  • Japan | Consumer Confidence Index (Apr): Previous 37.5
  • Nigeria | CPI YoY (Mar): consensus 7.90%, previous 7.80%
  • Hungary | GDP NSA YoY (1Q P): consensus 2.70%, previous 2.70%
  • Czech Republic | GDP YoY (1Q A): consensus 2.30%, previous 1.20%
  • Romania | GDP YoY (1Q A): consensus 3.90%, previous 5.40%
  • Poland | GDP YoY (1Q P): consensus 3.10%, previous 2.70%
  • Israel | CPI YoY (Apr): consensus 1.60%, previous 1.30%
  • Chile | Monetary Policy Decision: We expect rates on hold (at 4.0%, same as consensus), for the second consecutive month, and perhaps tone down the dovish bias in the policy statement following the recent higher than expected acceleration of inflation.
  • Peru | GDP YoY (Mar): previous 5.70%
  • Argentina | National Urban CPI MoM (Apr): previous 2.60%
  • Also interesting: [DM] US Manufacturing IP, Empire Manufacturing, TIC Flows, NAHB Housing Market Index; Canada Manufacturing Sales, Existing Home Sales; PPI in Denmark and Switzerland; Norway Trade Balance; Japan GDP Deflator and Tertiary Industry Index; Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations, New Motor Vehicle Sales; NZ BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI; Singapore Retail Sales [EM] Unemployment in Turkey and Peru, CA in Czech Republic and Romania; Poland Trade Balance, Core Inflation; Brazil Retail Sales.

Friday, May 16

  • Events: India General Elections Results
  • United States | Univ. of Michigan Confidence (May P): consensus 84.5, previous 84.1
  • United States | Housing Starts MoM (Apr): consensus 3.80%, previous 2.80%
  • United States | Building Permits (Apr): Consensus 1.80%, previous (r) -1.7%
  • Euro area | Trade Balance SA (Mar): Previous 15.0B (13.6B NSA)
  • Japan | Industrial Production MoM (Mar F): Previous 0.30% (7.00% yoy)
  • Japan | Capacity Utilization MoM (Mar): Previous -2.60%
  • Hong Kong | GDP SA QoQ (1Q): Previous 1.10% (3.00% yoy)
  • Malaysia | GDP YoY (1Q): Previous 5.10%
  • Singapore | Non-oil Domestic Exports YoY (Apr): Consensus -3.30%, previous -6.60%
  • Brazil | Economic Activity YoY (Mar): consensus 2.75% (0.50% mom), previous 4.04% (0.24% mom)
  • Argentina | Economic Activity YoY (Mar): previous 1.30 % (0.00% mom)
  • Also interesting: [DM] France Non-Farm Payrolls, Wages; Italy Trade Balance [EM] Singapore Non-oil Domestic Exports.

* * *

And summarized:

Source: Goldman, Bank of America

 

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Mon, 05/12/2014 - 09:35 | 4750486 OC Sure
OC Sure's picture

 

 

The key event this week will be the latest NFP reaction redux.

That is to say that even if the "economic data" is reported as strong, then yields will continue to fall because as Jesse Livermore noted, "the trend has been established before the news is published, and in bull markets bear items are ignored and bull news exaggerated, and vice versa."

Mon, 05/12/2014 - 09:47 | 4750497 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

Do you have your S&P 1900 party hat ready?

 

They are ramping em straight vertical, not a hint of weakness anywhere.  People are hitting the buy button in a panic and rightly so, the chance of us not seeing the S&P over 1900 this month is zero.

Mon, 05/12/2014 - 09:54 | 4750537 Racer
Racer's picture

"markets are likely to focus on a few important data prints"

Um, shouldn't that be the pyramid con labeled 'markets' will be manipulated by vacuum tubes at selected nonsensical time stamps that co-incide with the release of even more manipulation in the form of fake 'statistics' and 'data'

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