Bank Of Japan Prepares To Blame El Nino For Spending Collapse

Tyler Durden's picture

Just in case you were not convinced what a fragile fallacious lie the entire world's status quo has become, the Bank of Japan just provided one more straw on the camel's back of faith-based investing. As Bloomberg reports, BoJ officials are concerned that cooler-than-normal weather triggered by El Nino this summer will curb spending and weigh on an economic rebound. The Japan Meteorological Agency this week forecast a 70% chance El Nino will occur, the highest since its last occurrence in 2009, bringing lower temperatures that could continue through autumn - and, according to Dai-Ichi, could lower growth by as much as 0.9 percentage points. "We can't rule out the potential that the El Nino this summer causes unexpected damage to Japan’s economy," Nagahama said... the first pre-blamed weather forecast from a central bank we are aware of. Of course, given the dismal retail sales data this morning, we suspect a cooler-than-expected summer will be the scapegoat for a lack of economic escape velocity in the US also.


As we noted, just this week...

Any day, week, month, quarter, year now... that J-Curve 'recovery' will come bounding over the horizon and save the Japanese economy from its inevitable death spiral... for now, presented with little comment aside for historical confirmation (as even Goldman Sachs has now given up on hope of a bounce), Japan's largest (seasonally-adjusted) Balance of Payment Trade Deficit ever...


Not much sign of recovery there - weather or no weather...

And so - just in case the faith in Abenomics is lost this summer - the BoJ comes out with pre-blamed weather to lay the foundation for new excuses... (as Bloomberg reports)

Bank of Japan officials are concerned that cooler-than-normal weather triggered by El Nino this summer will curb spending and weigh on an economic rebound after a sales-tax increase, according to people familiar with the matter.


The officials are watching out for potential weakening in consumer spending and sentiment that could add to risks facing the economy from weak exports and developments in Ukraine, according to the people, who asked not to be named because the discussions were private. With an export recovery that could be gradual, the effects of El Nino require close monitoring, the people said.


The Japan Meteorological Agency this week forecast a 70 percent chance El Nino will occur, the highest since its last occurrence in 2009, bringing lower temperatures that could continue through autumn. Dai-ichi Life Research Institute economist Toshihiro Nagahama sees a risk that cooler weather could reduce growth by as much as 0.9 percentage point in the third quarter.


El Nino refers to a periodic warming cycle in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean which can lead to major weather pattern shifts, including cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific. This can cause lower temperatures, higher rainfall, and less sunlight in Japan when it occurs during the northern hemisphere summer, according to Japan’s weather agency.


“We can’t rule out the potential that the El Nino this summer causes unexpected damage to Japan’s economy,” Nagahama said. “This could affect the decision to raise the sales tax from October next year as the growth rate in July-September is critical for that judgment.”

As Scogen notes, perhaps front-running this pre-blame...

Our analysis finds that real household disposable income is weaker now than in 1997, and this may dampen consumer sentiment, leading to increased concern about the success of Abenomics.

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nope-1004's picture

Milli Vanilli economics.  Eat your heart out Krugman.


CrashisOptimistic's picture

Good call, nope.

What a pathetic time we live in.

TeamDepends's picture

"El Nino" is Japanese for "radiation big wave".

john39's picture

global warming strikes again.

ZerOhead's picture

Speaking of Global Warming...

Lots of catastrophic predictions these days as we are informed by the MSM again and again that the antarctic continues to melt threatening devastating sea level rise across the planet...

Meanwhile back in the real world antarctic sea ice reaches a wait-for-it ...


max2205's picture

Hey its Tuesday,  why am I losing my ass

yogibear's picture

Bondzilla seems to be dead. The central banksters clubbed it to death. 

john39's picture

they rely on the fact that most people can't go to antarctic to check for themselves... and know that all the big media could never be in on a lie so big...  but you know what goebbels said about the size of lies...

lasvegaspersona's picture





burn him...he's a witch

ZerOhead's picture

"burn him...he's a witch"

That would only serve to make global warming even more catastrophic than it already is...

Groundhog Day's picture

So if we have a cooler summer, it will cost me less to cool my house and save me money so i will turn around and spend less?  I just want to get my talking points straight with the economists i come accross

john39's picture

and people don't go out and shop, or go out to eat because its not hot and miserable out...  oh wait.  maybe they mean people don't shop online because they are busy outside enjoying the nice weather?  it all gets so confusing.

Headbanger's picture

No no no... It's that horrible "Global Darkness"  that happens every day that's the problem and we have GOT to make it stop or it will be dark all the time!

Why people can hardly see in it and so no wonder they can't spend spend spend round the click like they should be doing.

So please, start conserving daylight as much as you can, any way you can to stop this terrible threat to life on Earth!

caShOnlY's picture

“We can’t rule out the potential that the El Nino this summer causes unexpected damage to Japan’s economy,”

Ho Li Fuk, scraping the bottom for excuses.  This puppy has got to be real close to blowing.  Never in my life has weather, other than disastrous, been used as a scapegoat for economics.

Redneck Hippy's picture

There are some things that, once seen, can not be un-seen, ever.

kchrisc's picture

Send Seal Team-6, oops, 7, to take out this El Nino guy. That'll fix it.

Dr. Engali's picture

Damn weather! Whose idea was it to invent that crap anyway?

101 years and counting's picture

someone's excel file is corrupted and the wrong weather is going to the wrong regions of the centrally planned world.

EllaDara's picture

Don’t knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn’t start a conversation if it didn’t change once in a while. ~Kin Hubbard

BeerMe's picture

Haha!  I was just thinking about that.  What else can we use?

beavertails's picture

Next up, all the central banks and investment houses will start issuing economic forecasts based on weather forecasts, ignoring debt levels as the number one drag on the global economies.

Fuh Querada's picture

I thought Japanese women were frigid enough to begin with.

FredFlintstone's picture

Not from what I see on the internet.

GooseShtepping Moron's picture

That joke touches upon the real issue: There are not enough Japanese.

There is no way to grow an economy when the population is both aging and shrinking in absolute terms. The very best thing that Japan can do to help itself is to start making babies. You would think a national policy of "getting your freak-on-omics" would find at least a few takers, but apparently not. In the absence of that expedient, Japan's only hope is to shut out the world and go Tokugawa all over again.

pods's picture

They have engineers working on making a life size and fertile Japanese fuck doll, so things might be turning around.


pods's picture

El Nino =~1% drop in GDP?



espirit's picture

Nuclear Winter =~2% rise in GDP.

Didn't see that one coming.

Global Warming Solved!

Smegley Wanxalot's picture

Other than max a week, or a couple days, does anyone know of anybody boycotting purchases due to weather?  Seriously?

"I don't need new shoes.  It's cold out."

"I don't need new clothes.  It's cold out."

"I don't need food.  It's cold out."


More like "I'm cutting spending.  It's all a fucking scam."

JJdog's picture

Japanese government are the biggest scams on this planet! Shithole Abe is the head of the scam! 

firstdivision's picture

It's a shame that the Japanese populace is about as brainwashed as NRK citizens in their belief that the governement has their best interest at the heart of all their decision making.  If they ever wake up from being comatose, there would be riots of citizens demanding the heads of government commit seppuku

JJdog's picture

radiation sushi kept them stupid

Theta_Burn's picture

Ninja like discipline those Japanese

Who else could pull this off...with a straight face

PlusTic's picture

Global co-ordinated Central Bankster Suicide would seem more appropriate...

starman's picture

I can hear you but I'm no longer listening to bullshit!

Bunga Bunga's picture

Why not Boko Haram?

Madcow's picture

The Japanese economy is imploding becuase:

a) ongoing defaltionary collapse now aggravated by tax increases


b) the snow from the Winter of 13-14 was epic, and just now beginning to melt here in May - worldwide

CrashisOptimistic's picture

3) Paying $109 Brent/barrel for 5 million barrels of the good stuff every single day.

Eurodollar's picture

The whole world has downs, send in the clowns. If that doesnt work, send in the BOJ, the FED or the English Central Bank. The shit has hit the fan, and its about to get ugly. Japan's welfare experiment is just also showing us what will happen to the entire western world. Nothing can stop the cathastrophy either. No one wants to. While you wait, you'd be smart trying to acquire some real assets. GL

firstdivision's picture

Buying VIX hand-over fist time.  This shit has hit bottom.

firstdivision's picture

If only I could short the intelligence of the people that will get involved in these ETFs, I'd own all the gold/oil/ng in the world.

cowdiddly's picture

Yellen Smellin

The Weather Channel is calling for Partly cloudy and at least 20pips on the Sp next week.

Allthough I admit, I get most of my investment advice from Accuweather.