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Bank Of Japan Prepares To Blame El Nino For Spending Collapse
Just in case you were not convinced what a fragile fallacious lie the entire world's status quo has become, the Bank of Japan just provided one more straw on the camel's back of faith-based investing. As Bloomberg reports, BoJ officials are concerned that cooler-than-normal weather triggered by El Nino this summer will curb spending and weigh on an economic rebound. The Japan Meteorological Agency this week forecast a 70% chance El Nino will occur, the highest since its last occurrence in 2009, bringing lower temperatures that could continue through autumn - and, according to Dai-Ichi, could lower growth by as much as 0.9 percentage points. "We can't rule out the potential that the El Nino this summer causes unexpected damage to Japan’s economy," Nagahama said... the first pre-blamed weather forecast from a central bank we are aware of. Of course, given the dismal retail sales data this morning, we suspect a cooler-than-expected summer will be the scapegoat for a lack of economic escape velocity in the US also.
As we noted, just this week...
Any day, week, month, quarter, year now... that J-Curve 'recovery' will come bounding over the horizon and save the Japanese economy from its inevitable death spiral... for now, presented with little comment aside for historical confirmation (as even Goldman Sachs has now given up on hope of a bounce), Japan's largest (seasonally-adjusted) Balance of Payment Trade Deficit ever...
Not much sign of recovery there - weather or no weather...
And so - just in case the faith in Abenomics is lost this summer - the BoJ comes out with pre-blamed weather to lay the foundation for new excuses... (as Bloomberg reports)
Bank of Japan officials are concerned that cooler-than-normal weather triggered by El Nino this summer will curb spending and weigh on an economic rebound after a sales-tax increase, according to people familiar with the matter.
The officials are watching out for potential weakening in consumer spending and sentiment that could add to risks facing the economy from weak exports and developments in Ukraine, according to the people, who asked not to be named because the discussions were private. With an export recovery that could be gradual, the effects of El Nino require close monitoring, the people said.
The Japan Meteorological Agency this week forecast a 70 percent chance El Nino will occur, the highest since its last occurrence in 2009, bringing lower temperatures that could continue through autumn. Dai-ichi Life Research Institute economist Toshihiro Nagahama sees a risk that cooler weather could reduce growth by as much as 0.9 percentage point in the third quarter.
El Nino refers to a periodic warming cycle in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean which can lead to major weather pattern shifts, including cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific. This can cause lower temperatures, higher rainfall, and less sunlight in Japan when it occurs during the northern hemisphere summer, according to Japan’s weather agency.
“We can’t rule out the potential that the El Nino this summer causes unexpected damage to Japan’s economy,” Nagahama said. “This could affect the decision to raise the sales tax from October next year as the growth rate in July-September is critical for that judgment.”
As Scogen notes, perhaps front-running this pre-blame...
Our analysis finds that real household disposable income is weaker now than in 1997, and this may dampen consumer sentiment, leading to increased concern about the success of Abenomics.
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Milli Vanilli economics. Eat your heart out Krugman.
Good call, nope.
What a pathetic time we live in.
"El Nino" is Japanese for "radiation big wave".
global warming strikes again.
Speaking of Global Warming...
Lots of catastrophic predictions these days as we are informed by the MSM again and again that the antarctic continues to melt threatening devastating sea level rise across the planet...
http://www.cnn.com/2014/05/12/us/nasa-antarctica-ice-melt/
Meanwhile back in the real world antarctic sea ice reaches a wait-for-it ...
RECORD FUCKING HIGH!
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/antarctic.sea.ice.interactive.html
Hey its Tuesday, why am I losing my ass
Godzilla!
Bondzilla seems to be dead. The central banksters clubbed it to death.
they rely on the fact that most people can't go to antarctic to check for themselves... and know that all the big media could never be in on a lie so big... but you know what goebbels said about the size of lies...
Zhead
heretic
burn him...he's a witch
"burn him...he's a witch"
That would only serve to make global warming even more catastrophic than it already is...
So if we have a cooler summer, it will cost me less to cool my house and save me money so i will turn around and spend less? I just want to get my talking points straight with the economists i come accross
and people don't go out and shop, or go out to eat because its not hot and miserable out... oh wait. maybe they mean people don't shop online because they are busy outside enjoying the nice weather? it all gets so confusing.
No no no... It's that horrible "Global Darkness" that happens every day that's the problem and we have GOT to make it stop or it will be dark all the time!
Why people can hardly see in it and so no wonder they can't spend spend spend round the click like they should be doing.
So please, start conserving daylight as much as you can, any way you can to stop this terrible threat to life on Earth!
LOL!!!
“We can’t rule out the potential that the El Nino this summer causes unexpected damage to Japan’s economy,”
Ho Li Fuk, scraping the bottom for excuses. This puppy has got to be real close to blowing. Never in my life has weather, other than disastrous, been used as a scapegoat for economics.
http://cdn.rsvlts.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/el-nino.jpg
I did not need to see that
There are some things that, once seen, can not be un-seen, ever.
Send Seal Team-6, oops, 7, to take out this El Nino guy. That'll fix it.
Damn weather! Whose idea was it to invent that crap anyway?
someone's excel file is corrupted and the wrong weather is going to the wrong regions of the centrally planned world.
Don’t knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn’t start a conversation if it didn’t change once in a while. ~Kin Hubbard
Haha! I was just thinking about that. What else can we use?
Next up, all the central banks and investment houses will start issuing economic forecasts based on weather forecasts, ignoring debt levels as the number one drag on the global economies.
I thought Japanese women were frigid enough to begin with.
Not from what I see on the internet.
That joke touches upon the real issue: There are not enough Japanese.
There is no way to grow an economy when the population is both aging and shrinking in absolute terms. The very best thing that Japan can do to help itself is to start making babies. You would think a national policy of "getting your freak-on-omics" would find at least a few takers, but apparently not. In the absence of that expedient, Japan's only hope is to shut out the world and go Tokugawa all over again.
They have engineers working on making a life size and fertile Japanese fuck doll, so things might be turning around.
pods
hmmm, link?
{s}
El Nino =~1% drop in GDP?
Getdafuckouttahere!
pods
Nuclear Winter =~2% rise in GDP.
Didn't see that one coming.
Global Warming Solved!
WTI is going to blame Japanese spending collapse for it's run up.
https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=0&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=logarithmic&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1400011200000&chddm=780&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=NYSEARCA:USO&cmptdms=0&q=NYSEARCA:SPY&ntsp=1&ei=GGVyU8iUG9LeqAH3_IBY
Other than max a week, or a couple days, does anyone know of anybody boycotting purchases due to weather? Seriously?
"I don't need new shoes. It's cold out."
"I don't need new clothes. It's cold out."
"I don't need food. It's cold out."
More like "I'm cutting spending. It's all a fucking scam."
Japanese government are the biggest scams on this planet! Shithole Abe is the head of the scam!
It's a shame that the Japanese populace is about as brainwashed as NRK citizens in their belief that the governement has their best interest at the heart of all their decision making. If they ever wake up from being comatose, there would be riots of citizens demanding the heads of government commit seppuku
radiation sushi kept them stupid
Ninja like discipline those Japanese
Who else could pull this off...with a straight face
Global co-ordinated Central Bankster Suicide would seem more appropriate...
I can hear you but I'm no longer listening to bullshit!
Why not Boko Haram?
The Japanese economy is imploding becuase:
a) ongoing defaltionary collapse now aggravated by tax increases
or
b) the snow from the Winter of 13-14 was epic, and just now beginning to melt here in May - worldwide
3) Paying $109 Brent/barrel for 5 million barrels of the good stuff every single day.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NwrL9MV6jSk
The whole world has downs, send in the clowns. If that doesnt work, send in the BOJ, the FED or the English Central Bank. The shit has hit the fan, and its about to get ugly. Japan's welfare experiment is just also showing us what will happen to the entire western world. Nothing can stop the cathastrophy either. No one wants to. While you wait, you'd be smart trying to acquire some real assets. GL
Yep, Drone On Dude!.
Buying VIX hand-over fist time. This shit has hit bottom.
Hang on I want to buy one of these first.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-13/grandma-gets-to-play-hedge-fund...
If only I could short the intelligence of the people that will get involved in these ETFs, I'd own all the gold/oil/ng in the world.
Yellen Smellin
The Weather Channel is calling for Partly cloudy and at least 20pips on the Sp next week.
Allthough I admit, I get most of my investment advice from Accuweather.
Maybe trading on barometric data will get me better returns, because trading on anything produced by an analyst or accountant these days is getting me nowhere
because everyone was planning to skip the Riviera this year and hit the beaches at Fukushima...?
Everyday I awake in wonder at the lies needed to keep the system supported.
I just added it up.
5 million barrels/day at $109 Brent/barrel adds up to about $200 billion / year that leaves Japan.
The GDP is about 6 Trillion. So oil is 3.3% drag on GDP every single day of every single year.
They have to grow 4% just to offset oil.
They are truly fucked. Scarcity drives up that price, it gets worse and worse.
C O
Kyle Bass has a big payday coming, he saw this 4 years ago.
Sometimes being too early with a good idea can break your bank. If you approach things with caution you could become a beneficiary of the insanity rather than just one of the billion victims.
Jebus H Fucking Krugman...I can't believe this entire world is run by a such a bunch of total fucking sociopathic pussies. Every fucking country...every fucking central bank, and all the little fucking pussies that orbit around them.
The weather caused it. it's always the fucking weather. It's sun spots, it's a polar fucking vortex. No...it's not any of that shit...it's these assholes fucking everything up, that's what it is.
These criminal fuck-tards are so delusional and disconnected from reality that we'd have a better chace at a recovery if Charles Manson and Hannibal fucking Lecter were running things.
Worst fucking part is that if you sent Jay Leno out to do a little "Jay Walking" skit asking the sheeple if the bad economy is caused by the weather, those fucking idiots would all fucking say YES!!!
Ask any of them if they own even 1 single fucking ounce of silver and I'm sure the answers would range from, "I like ice cream" to "oooooh...pretty color, silver." or "uh-oh....I think I just poo'd in my pants again...hee hee hee." While they drool all over themselves...
amazing, not really though when you think about it. bad weather to blame for slow us activity in the winter, too pleasant of 'expected' weather to pre-slow japanese growth. so its the expectation of nice weather that will prevent people from spending now or planning on spending in the future.
they truly do read from the book of Krugman... 'growth shall be result only from destruction; and destruction giveth thee growth. thine growth shall be born from new fiat to replace that which has already existed'
To All the Banquet Servers, Valets, restroom attendants, and various hotel staff: Do Your Part! And Disrupt, Discard, Delay, and Deter any of these fks and entrourage when you see them at your hotel. You Know you weild the power to make things disappear and for food to not sit so pleasantly inthe bellies of the beasts.
Hannibal blamed the weather. Napoleon blamed the weather. Hitler blamed the weather. Obama blamed the weather ...
Four mortal enemies of comunism: Spring, Summer, Autumn, Winter. Or so the joke went in comunist Eastern Europe. I never thought I will see it being applicable to the western world but it happened. The joke now does work equally well.
I love it.
"Other than max a week, or a couple days, does anyone know of anybody boycotting purchases due to weather? Seriously?"
Cold mostly affects impulse purchases like food. I've worked in fast food before and very few people came in when it was cold. Real estate is affected by winter every year. This is why housing prices usually peak in summer and bottom in winter. I was reading through the yearly financial reports of a few apartment REITs, and several of them mentioned that Q4 is generally a bad quarter with fewer tenants moving in, and the data from previous years supported this claim.
The real killer is snow fall. Lots of people stay home if roads are not plowed.
Spungo
you are thinking this through using reason, that will never get you to the right answer.
Ship all your jobs to China and play the Federal Reserve's game of loading up with debt is a sure way to destroy yourself.
Let's see Japan go down the debt black hole first and the US can follow.
My dog ate my homework.
Where I am right now it is 10 degress below normal and the streets, shops and business offices are fucking empty. Wait, no they're not.
somehow this would all be more palatible if they just said: we are your master overlords, we control everything, bow before us or we will kill you...
that I could understand, they fact that can't bring themselves to say this is a sign of weakness which I find hard to accept...in a master overlord that is...
The world has shifted into full retard mode.
Johnny Sokko has befriended Janet Yellen on facebook & Twitter.
"according to people familiar with the matter."
For fuck's sake, Bloomberg! "Familiar with the matter?" What...Economics? Weather? We are all fucking "familiar" with the weather....
Fucking RETARDS!!!
HIGH PRICED OIL DESTROYS GROWTH
According to the results of a quantitative exercise carried out by the IEA in collaboration with the OECD Economics Department and with the assistance of the International Monetary Fund Research Department, a sustained $10 per barrel increase in oil prices from $25 to $35 would result in the OECD as a whole losing 0.4% of GDP in the first and second years of higher prices. http://www.iea.org/textbase/npsum/high_oil04sum.pdf
So what might a multi-year $100+ price do to growth?
There you have it people - QE and ZIRP are all about delaying the end of growth and the collapse of civilization.
So no need to spew vomit endlessly on these forums - I have told you what the problem is --- enjoy life while you still can -- because even if you were starving in a somalian refuge camp --- that will look like prosperity when the shit hits the fan.
You know, in a more religious age, like very recently, rulers found it very useful to blame "God", or whatever deity was on the pedestal at the moment, for misfortune, both natural and man-made.
Methinx blaming "God" will make a real come-back. Out of popular demand.
Be prepared, if the El Nino continues to form, and it looks better than even that it will, then all kinds of economic shortcomings will be blamed on the extreme weather related to El Nino. Perhaps this will be a super El Nino, that is what appears to be forming, but that is not a sure bet. A strong El Nino or Super El Nino has a series of predictable and unpredicatable influences on weather. Californina is an interesting case. California is having more unseasonable heat and drought even now, fires are buring too, earlier than usual.
SHould a strong El Nino develop by late summer, fall and into winter, then a good chance exists that California will be ground zero for numerous heavy rainfall events, even record rainfall, the kind that may end the drought, but raise all hell with the state. Agriculture will go from lack of rain, to being washed into the sea by epic Pacific storms, including a special kind of Pacific event in which moisture flows in from the Pacific, warm moist air saturated with rainfall ready to drop on California for days, even weeks on end. I give a strong El Nino a 65% chance of being here soon, if the preconditions we see now hold up, then a much stronger than normal El Nino could cause massive agricultural losses in many nations, Australia too could be devestated. One thing is a given, large food price inflation, this feed into social instablity in many poor nations, and social stress even in 1st world nations, The UK could see a large population under real economic stress due to rising food prices and the Ukraine situation could also result in soaring gas prices in Europe. The two combined could cause riots in the UK, look for those in August if things go the way I think they might.
It is fucking unbearably hot and humid in Japan in the summer. The frugal Japanese housewives won't run the air conditioner all day, so instead, they go shopping.
A cooler summer might mean a drop in electicity use as well, unless the frugal Japanese housewives decide to run their vibrators all day.