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Russia Holds "De-Dollarization Meeting": China, Iran Willing To Drop USD From Bilateral Trade

Tyler Durden's picture




 

That Russia has been pushing for trade arrangements that minimize the participation (and influence) of the US dollar ever since the onset of the Ukraine crisis (and before) is no secret: this has been covered extensively on these pages before (see Gazprom Prepares "Symbolic" Bond Issue In Chinese Yuan; Petrodollar Alert: Putin Prepares To Announce "Holy Grail" Gas Deal With China; Russia And China About To Sign "Holy Grail" Gas Deal; 40 Central Banks Are Betting This Will Be The Next Reserve Currency; From the Petrodollar to the Gas-o-yuan and so on).

But until now much of this was in the realm of hearsay and general wishful thinking. After all, surely it is "ridiculous" that a country can seriously contemplate to exist outside the ideological and religious confines of the Petrodollar... because if one can do it, all can do it, and next thing you know the US has hyperinflation, social collapse, civil war and all those other features prominently featured in other socialist banana republics like Venezuela which alas do not have a global reserve currency to kick around.

Or so the Keynesian economists, aka tenured priests of said Petrodollar religion, would demand that the world believe.

However, as much as it may trouble the statists to read, Russia is actively pushing on with plans to put the US dollar in the rearview mirror and replace it with a dollar-free system. Or, as it is called in Russia, a "de-dollarized" world.

Voice of Russia reports citing Russian press sources that the country's Ministry of Finance is ready to greenlight a plan to radically increase the role of the Russian ruble in export operations while reducing the share of dollar-denominated transactions. Governmental sources believe that the Russian banking sector is "ready to handle the increased number of ruble-denominated transactions".

According to the Prime news agency, on April 24th the government organized a special meeting dedicated to finding a solution for getting rid of the US dollar in Russian export operations. Top level experts from the energy sector, banks and governmental agencies were summoned and a number of measures were proposed as a response for American sanctions against Russia.

Well, if the west wanted Russia's response to ever escalating sanctions against the country, it is about to get it.

The "de-dollarization meeting” was chaired by First Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Igor Shuvalov, proving that Moscow is very serious in its intention to stop using the dollar. A subsequent meeting was chaired by Deputy Finance Minister Alexey Moiseev who later told the Rossia 24 channel that "the amount of ruble-denominated contracts will be increased”, adding that none of the polled experts and bank representatives found any problems with the government's plan to increase the share of ruble payments.

For the benefit of our Russian-speaking readers, the interview with Moiseev is below and the transcript can be found here:

Further, if you thought that only Obama can reign supreme by executive order alone, you were wrong - the Russians can do it just as effectively. Enter the "currency switch executive order":

It is interesting that in his interview, Moiseev mentioned a legal mechanism that can be described as "currency switch executive order”, telling that the government has the legal power to force Russian companies to trade a percentage of certain goods in rubles. Referring to the case when this level may be set to 100%, the Russian official said that "it's an extreme option and it is hard for me to tell right now how the government will use these powers".

Well, as long as the options exists.

But more importantly, none of what Russia is contemplating would have any practical chance of implementation if it weren't for other nations who would engage in USD-free bilateral trade relations. Such countries, however, do exist and it should come as a surprise to nobody that the two which have already stepped up are none other than China and Iran.

Of course, the success of Moscow's campaign to switch its trading to rubles or other regional currencies will depend on the willingness of its trading partners to get rid of the dollar. Sources cited by Politonline.ru mentioned two countries who would be willing to support Russia: Iran and China. Given that Vladimir Putin will visit Beijing on May 20, it can be speculated that the gas and oil contracts that are going to be signed between Russia and China will be denominated in rubles and yuan, not dollars.

In other words, in one week's time look for not only the announcement of the Russia-China "holy grail" gas agreement described previously here, but its financial terms, which now appears virtually certain will be settled exclusively in RUB and CNY. Not USD.

And as we have explained repeatedly in the past, the further the west antagonizes Russia, and the more economic sanctions it lobs at it, the more Russia will be forced away from a USD-denominated trading system and into one which faces China and India. Which is why next week's announcement, as groundbreaking as it most certainly will be, is just the beginning.

 

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Tue, 05/13/2014 - 17:49 | 4756589 Cattender
Cattender's picture

the u.s. Dollar is the King of the World!!!! HAHAHAHAHA!!!!

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 17:50 | 4756592 THX 1178
THX 1178's picture

"I am INVINCIBLE!!!!"

-That geek from goldeneye shortly before being cryogenically frozen

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 17:53 | 4756609 MeMadMax
MeMadMax's picture

DO IT!

The sooner, THE BETTER!

God damn, this country needs a hardcore kick in the teeth.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 17:58 | 4756635 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

They're waiting on nuclear winter

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 18:01 | 4756645 fonestar
fonestar's picture

BTC > dollar, pound, ruble, DM, Krone and all other nationalist shit paper.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 18:07 | 4756679 maskone909
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Hook me up with some coin dawg
1LF9pZ3sF2DoLmqAvK4sK9aefydMBnqbLh

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 18:13 | 4756699 Slave
Slave's picture

Death of the Petrodollar is beginning....and everybody in the U.S. is clueless even to its existence...

Words cannot describe how fucked this place is.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 18:21 | 4756724 GVB
GVB's picture

"Words cannot describe how fucked this place is"

Yes, Jim Willie is Master (!)

I've got to give him that credit.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 18:27 | 4756745 localsavage
localsavage's picture

They will spin it as good policy.  You can pay off your 150K student loan with that gold from your dead granpa's teeth.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 18:28 | 4756752 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

This is pretty predictable.

Why would Obama and his neocon friends like Nuland/Kagan think it is a good idea to pitch the US over the edge?

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 18:34 | 4756785 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Putin's going to do in a year more than the EU accomplished in 20.

Obama.... still trying to figure out why the red checkers don't taste any different than the black checkers.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 18:38 | 4756800 Latina Lover
Latina Lover's picture

Bring it on Russia, China, Iran. It's time we stick to these fucking money bankster junkies. 

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 18:46 | 4756828 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Let me reiterate...NOTHING IS AS IT SEEMS.

This is about disclosure and the end of the petro system, and thus the petro dollar.

 

Wake up people...and get out of energy.

 

New Paradigm just around the corner.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 18:49 | 4756838 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

I agree. The writing is on the wall. Like right fucking NOW.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 18:52 | 4756844 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

Check out this Kagan fellow of David Rockefeller's CFR who is Nuland's husband:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Kagan

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 18:55 | 4756857 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

That guy is a fucking nutcase Pinto. He was McCains foreign policy advisor. LOL...

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 19:01 | 4756879 Looney
Looney's picture

Next step: Mr. Yellen will complete the taper denominated in Rubles and Yuan. Oh, what a hoot it would’ve been! ;-)

Looney

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 19:24 | 4756931 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

It seems that the circle is closing on these people and they cannot get a war going soon enough.

Another psycho who pre-wrote the 911 Commission report:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_D._Zelikow

Meanwhile Zelikow wrote a paper "Catastrophic Terrorism" in 1998 contemplating a catastrophic terrorist event after which civil liberties would be suspended in the US.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 19:31 | 4757001 espirit
espirit's picture

Golden Rule -

Whomever has the gold (and oil) makes the rules.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 19:36 | 4757018 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

And so the BIS, central banks, the IMF, bullion bnaks, etc. coordinate the leasing (diappearance) of gold holdings from the West.

That's a good plan to either blow a massive financial bubble and loot the West or, or,  Hmmm can't think of anything else.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 19:38 | 4757031 Manthong
Manthong's picture

This might be the muzlim-in-chief’s way of amping his Cloward-Piven strategy.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 19:56 | 4757094 chumbawamba
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LET'S GET READY TO RUBLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I am Chumbawamba.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 20:02 | 4757109 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

So in response to our using our trade clearing system to punish you, you're going to exit our trade clearing system?

Shiiiiiiiiit!!!  We never thought of that!

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 20:09 | 4757118 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

Except Iran did exactly that in 2012 in setting up their petrogold trade with India when financial sanctions by the West prevented them from receiving dollar payments through the financial system.

This is entirely predictable.

The Samson option is being exercised.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 20:18 | 4757166 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

It ain't over until there's blood in the street...even if it ends up being a hundred menstruating ladies squatting in Times Square.

I am Chumbawamba.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 21:41 | 4757432 Rusty Shorts
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Senior Obama (KGB)Official Says "We Are Going To Kill The Dollar"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ILKolTI1s50

 


Tue, 05/13/2014 - 21:56 | 4757480 Mistress Raindrop
Mistress Raindrop's picture

Killing the dollar is no easy feat.  Better people than Putin have tried. Bitches.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 22:33 | 4757583 BorisTheBlade
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Pieces fall together when there is an active cooperation by a dude in the White House.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 00:24 | 4757843 old naughty
old naughty's picture

Russia and China (plus Iran, really?) got together, and petrodollar is dismantled...

Can it be that simple, really, no?

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 07:10 | 4758161 ilion
ilion's picture

This move is not only against the US dollar but also will not benefit the Euro. Euro has already dropped more than 2% over tha past days and it will most likely continue to drop. Chart here:http://armadamarkets.blogspot.com/2014/05/euro-sell-off-is-over-after-30...

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 22:43 | 4757617 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Great empires are destroyed from within, not without.

Putin has little to do with it.  He is merely one of a millions of potential pins that the dollar bubble finds itself surrounded by.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 06:23 | 4758118 YBNguy
YBNguy's picture

WAR TIME BITCHEZ

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 02:05 | 4757978 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Given the very nature of the Fed's fiat system + FRB, exponential growth is baked into its DNA.  Booms and Busts are inevitable.  As is its insatiable appetite for global assets to be controlled and leveraged.  As such, the Petro-Dollar must either grow to include all other forms of energy and become the Energy-Dollar, and thus truly be the "One Coin To Rule Them All".

If it fails in this endeavor of global hegemony, it must reach its limit and collapse and return as a Regional Reserve Currency (RRC), if it's lucky.  To prevent this from happening, its opponents (the BRICS and most of the world) must not only prevent the Dollar's metamorphesis into the Energy Dollar, but must dethrone its GRC status by getting major powers to stop using it for purchases/sales of Oil.

I have spelled this out last year, in my post on Wed, 09/04/2013 - 19:56 | 3923336 Kirk2NCC1701, re-posted here...

-------

"It's MOAR than "protecting" the petro-dollar.  It's about saving the Petro-dollar from collapse.

And the best course of action TPTB have chosen for its defense is a "Good Offense":  The Petro-Dollar needs, indeed MUST also become the NatGas-Dollar.  And, in so doing, it would become the ENERGY-Dollar.

As an ENERGY-Dollar, all international energy sources in the world will have to be priced and traded in USDs on the FX market.  Electicity and even GreenElectricity from renewable sources and NatGas between countries would have to be traded in USDs. 

Russia, China and a disarmed & wrecked Iran would have to buy USDs (US paper Notes, i.e. Out-of-thin-air-fiat-Notes).  The financial system of the whole world will have fallen under the ENERGY-DOLLAR, and its small cadre of elite, hidden Shareholders who own the private cartel of Central Banks.

Think gold & silver alone will save you?  Wrong!  Owning PM (Gold, Silver, Platinum) will NOT matter to Russia, China or anyone else at this point, because it is ENERGY that moves the world, not PM.

Therefore... Russia, China, Iran and indeed the whole world has NO choice but to stand against the NWO Elite, or it's... Feudalism 2.0.

I would suggest to Russia, China and Iran to make an Energy treaty, to create an EPEC (Energy Producing Exporting Countries), which treats Electricity, Oil, NatGas, Wood and Coal as ENERGY units that are bought and sold on the global market, in ANY solvent fiat currency or gold-backed currency.  Anything short of this is, IMHO, the financial and economic suicide of nations.  

The G-20 summit meeting this Thursday & Friday in Moscow is the PERFECT time and place to initiate this process.  In spite of best attempts by the US to sidetrack or delay such efforts.  Best wishes. Kirk out."

-------

Going back even further to 2012, I have jokingly suggested to the ZH blogger "Paul Krugman" that he aim for a second Nobel Prize, by creating a new currency system that mimics money from Kirk's futuristic timeline, i.e. currency backed by Precious Energy (Dilithium Crystals) and Precious Metal (Latinum).  Alas, I got no bites/replies from Krugman, even I after I jokingly offered to "collaborate" on an Opus Denari.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 05:54 | 4758105 new game
new game's picture

that cash may be "worth not as much as you thought"

shit be happening, time for some stealth? dust off those skills, find a small pack, shot to kill, remorselessly...

calm in the countryside, hear and there. carefully tread as movement could seal your fate.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 19:33 | 4757010 Seer
Seer's picture

"It seems that the circle is closing on these people and they cannot get a war going soon enough."

In a way it would present itself with a pretty good opportunity to "close the books" before it totally comes undone, in the eyes of the US and the West that is.

I do not, however, think that it'll be a bombs and bullets war.  It'll be a financial war in which everyone writes everyone else off and thus forces (as it is shaping up now) into trade sanctions (discontinuance of trade) and changes in trading partners (more regional and less global- say goodbye to the NWO [it'll be yet one more prediction that I end up being right about]).

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 19:56 | 4757092 centerline
centerline's picture

I tend to agree.  WWIII has been raging for some time behind the scenes anyhow.  It is just moving into another phase now where Russia can turn up the heat... more or less speed up the processes of debt destruction that are already in motion.  The ultimate irony here is that all that is needed (besides a little nudging) is to let greed, corruption, incompetence, etc. do thier thing.

Bombs and bullets will be more for peripheral nations... proxy wars per se (nudging).  Strategic moves towards the primary goal of currency destruction.  Either consolidation or destablization.  Well, at least until the primary goal is realized and loosing nations turn into zombie police states.  Really no need for nukes to fly... this is all about unleashing the free shit army in your opponents country first without crashing your own in the process.  Realignment of trade, debt wipeout, etc.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 18:55 | 4756853 sushi
sushi's picture

next thing you know the US has hyperinflation, social collapse, civil war and all those other features prominently featured in other socialist banana republics 

 

I know where the USSA can get some cheap mercs to handle the above unrest. Speak slavik, respect nazi authority, happy to shoot the civilian population, already cleared to work for the State Dept.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 19:28 | 4756984 Wild tree
Wild tree's picture

JPM,

The people won't wake until their teeth are swallowed as Madmax implies. The dollar default will occur on a Friday. Your first hint will be when your credit card won't work. Banks will not reopen on Monday, all SNAP, social security, government retirement, medicaid, and medicare credits will stop. As the panic begins to spread, we will have a Katrina event nationwide. SDR in the wings, new world order begins.

No one is ready for this, no one.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 20:13 | 4757149 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Nobody is totally prepared for the unknown, but some are more prepared than the rest.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 20:50 | 4757268 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

That's a disturbingly plausible scenario.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 20:55 | 4757285 BigJim
BigJim's picture

 Your first hint will be when your credit card won't work. Banks will not reopen on Monday, all SNAP, social security, government retirement, medicaid, and medicare credits will stop.

Nah. All that shit will keep being dispensed. But Gasoline will go up %5 a week for several months, as will food, electricity, wood, cement...

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 21:44 | 4757445 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture
We Are Going To Kill The Dollar

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ILKolTI1s50

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 21:48 | 4757458 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture
What Wild tree said.
Tue, 05/13/2014 - 21:51 | 4757465 Seer
Seer's picture

I have always highly doubted that there could ever be any "new world order" (in the context that George H. W. Bush presented to us waaay back when).  It all depended upon large-scale trade, and large-scale trade depends hugely on cheap and widely available energy.  "Scales of economy in reverse" essentially kills global trade to the level necessary to maintain any new world order.

Declaring some big national security emergency, as would a massive disruption in current global trade, allows for govts to institute tighter controls within their populations- many will see the old "raly around the flag" trick work, while others will not.  TPTB in the West realize that the scope of their power is going to shrink drastically, in which case it's a matter of retrenching locally- expect TPTB to wrap themselves tighter in the flag...

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 22:13 | 4757523 centerline
centerline's picture

With lots of ammo and a militarized police.  Welcome to the Hunger Games.  The world is going to get a whole lot more local for most people.  YMMV of course.  Some assembly required.  Batteries not included.

NWO is elitist porn.  In reality, it is all just noise.  Packs of sociopaths all trying to game each other.  In the end, it all boils down to resources.  Food, water, energy.

 

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 00:32 | 4757853 FriendlyStranger
FriendlyStranger's picture

Rise like a phoenix
Out of the ashes
Seeking rather than vengeance
Retribution
You were warned

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 22:17 | 4757534 thecoloredsky
thecoloredsky's picture

or sunday, as when nixon made his ridiculous speech

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 20:46 | 4757259 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

JPM Hater001    Let me reiterate...NOTHING IS AS IT SEEMS.

This is about disclosure and the end of the petro system, and thus the petro dollar.

 Wake up people...and get out of energy.

 New Paradigm just around the corner.

---

Get out of energy? Energy will still be needed. It is about the US dollar.

We are being a bit premature. We could have a 2016 president with some actual balls and a congress that supports that. And I am anti government. To call it now is a bit early.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 21:59 | 4757486 Seer
Seer's picture

"To call it now is a bit early."

It's about trajectory.  Just what would any POTUS with balls be able to do?  Holler more loudly that the world MUST continue to use the USD?  It doesn't matter one lick if ALL OF THE WEST COMBINED want this, if Russia, China and Iran don't want to partake in that party then, if they refuse to do trade with the West, just what is the West going to do about it?  As I'd mentioned elsewhere, the West (US) cannot invade Russia, China and Iran and take them over in order to force them to use the USD.

Behind the USD is the petro-dollar, "petrol" being a very important part of the equation here.  Europe has little in the "petrol "department; and the US imports over 40% of what it consumes.  Have you not figured out why PM folks constantly stress PHYSICAL and POSSESSION?  ALL wars are about resources.  This one is no different: it's gotten this far along because there were enough new contestants to the Ponzi game (Brazil, India China); that course has run and now we're staring at each other knowing that collections are coming...

Regionalism.  Less.  You can take that to the "bank."

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 23:09 | 4757703 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Sorry, let me put some more around this.

In 1947 we recovered a crashed saucer at Roswell.  Over the next 63 years we black boxed project after project on cheap or free energy and our government willingly murdered people to keep energy systems like Zero Point energy out of the public reach.  But being we have massive pollution problems we have to do this soon or we will destroy the planet...and ourselves.  Ukraine and Vietnam are early lessons, if we continue down the road of fossil fuels we will end up in larger and larger wars in a fight for energy and natural resouces.

The body of evidence on Roswell alone could choke Godzilla, yes even the new one Japan says is ridiculously large, and if you havent watched The Citizens Hearing on Disclosure (there are parts of it on youtube or google) go to their site and you can download the whole thing.

A copy of the whole thing is suppose to be sent to Congress shortly, 40 hours of testimony and presentations.  A legitamate hearing in front of 6 former member of congress had to be done, it's not like they could have sent Congress Ancient Aliens Season 2 and been taken seriously.

With that my favorite scenario is this starts with a collapse in Chinese banks because if it started in America it could start a war - A Friday start is my guess too but it accelerates way faster than anyone can imagine and by Monday the world leaders will have everyones attention.

Bonus link: Pope Francis Invited To Address Congress - Business Insider

Sure, it's an innocent visit...the Pope, a Jesuit at that, get's invited to speak before Congress all the time.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 00:21 | 4757835 Advoc8tr
Advoc8tr's picture

Seems as pluasible as anything else ... however the minute "free" energy becomes an "accepted" reality they lose all control. It is great for 90 % of the people on the planet but centralised control will be impossible unless overt and militarized.  Are you suggesting they are going to accept that their reign is over as the "least bad" scenario for themselves or they are going to try and maintain control by centralizing the power generation and actively suppressing any attempts by people to distribute the generation ?

If we can get to a point where an air-con sized unit on every house generates free clean power we have won and are free as birds :)

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 07:20 | 4758175 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Hey Friend-

I am saying we are dealing with a paradigm based on a whole new set of rules.  This isnt the "least bad" option.  This is the only option - And I dont suggest we came up with it either.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 00:04 | 4757803 IRMAD
IRMAD's picture

that wont stick it to those banksters. They'l support Russia just as easily as U.S.

Where ever the money is to be made. Just like WWII, one bankster funded the U.S., another bankster funded Hitler. Money from both sides ended in the same coufers.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 09:50 | 4758625 J_jade
J_jade's picture

We should send Latina Lover to Iran where he will get shot in the head by radical muslims who hate christians and atheiists., then will see how much he says " bring it on ".   fuckin clueless idiot.

I can't wait till 2020 rolls around and the US Dollar is still the world reserve currency and there still isn't any WW3.  Youre all idiots being manipulated by the other side.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 09:58 | 4758661 J_jade
J_jade's picture

I bet the FBI and CIA are all over Zerohedge watching and taking notes of potential threats.  If i we're them i would.  This site is a great breeding ground for radical kids.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 21:00 | 4757305 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

.

Obama.... still trying to figure out why the red checkers don't taste any different than the black checkers.

OK, now that's got to be the funniest Obama snark I've seen this year.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 22:05 | 4757500 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

Totally agree!

 

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 21:40 | 4757429 Trogdor
Trogdor's picture

Obama.... still trying to figure out why the red checkers don't taste any different than the black checkers.

Probably because he hasn't figured out that you can't taste things rectally.....

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 02:47 | 4758011 Joenobody12
Joenobody12's picture

Putin for president. I heard he was born in Hawaii.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 04:24 | 4758054 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

He was actually born in Alaska but the effect is the same. His birth certificate froze.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 18:55 | 4756852 Seer
Seer's picture

"Why would Obama and his neocon friends like Nuland/Kagan think it is a good idea to pitch the US over the edge?"

Um... I doubt that they have ANY control over this.  This is a changing of the guard.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 20:03 | 4757106 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

Creating a crisis instead of addressing the issues is a choice.

Massive deficits to weaken the dollar, allow the Fed to continue to cripple the economy and blow a massive bubble with distortive low interest rates, then collapse the whole thing.

Their actions contribute to the coming consequences.

Who coulda know'd, it was a changing of the guard doesn't work too well when your currency caves.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 20:15 | 4757154 Seer
Seer's picture

Addressing the issues, how?

This is about RESOURCES, about how the world's growth is at an end.  This is Musical Chairs.  When the music stops that's going to pretty much be it.

Again, the US was totally unable to pay its debts even before the bubbles popped.  W/o growth debt really can't be repaid (unless one wants to start chewing on oneself, and that will only last so long).

The "actions" are not their to take, really.  It's how all empires collapse, and no empire has escaped collapse.  Read Glubb's work: http://www.rexresearch.com/glubb/glubb-empire.pdf

Empires are built and maintained by a given set of powers.  Those powers will NOT let go and roll over, they'll carry everyhing to their graves (just as most here would stand up and fight for everything they have): this is no more than standard human behavior.

"Who coulda know'd, it was a changing of the guard doesn't work too well when your currency caves."

The "changing of the guard" doesn't necessarily mean an agreed-upon handoff.  Russia will become the next empire to begin its descent into collapse: and I'm pretty sure that Putin knows this (TPTB on that side of the pond, however, will push it and ride it to the cliff just as has always happened throughout history- greed and human hubris always dismisses histories "failures" as failures which can be avoided).

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 21:11 | 4757299 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

Growth is not at an end.  Infinite growth through attempted infinite debt creation is at an end.

there are many types of resources in the world.

The intellectual property was given to the Chinese pretty much for free, the gold was given to Asia pretty much for free when we look at the post cave-in gold price, access to NAmer and Euro markets was traded for cheap consumer goods products to hide monetary inflation for a period.

The rigging of the gold and financial markets bought 20 years of bubbles while the Western economies were looted.

Not much of a trade.  And now we call it the "changing of the guard'. 

The critical financial assets of the West have been pissed away in trade for a financial system bubble.  That was fun.

Outstanding debt should be written down by 50%, the Fed and all central banks should be eliminated, the TBTF banks should be eliminated, sound money should be reinstituted.

Gold that has been looted from our Treasuries can be recovered from the banking system oligarchs, but it won't be.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 22:15 | 4757530 Seer
Seer's picture

"Growth is not at an end. "  For the purposes of maintaining any semblance of a global economic model is sure the heck is.  And since that global model is totally imbedded into every country it's also over for every country.

"The critical financial assets of the West have been pissed away in trade for a financial system bubble.  That was fun."

The assets were really NEVER there to begin with!  It got totally unhinged in 1971.  Since then it's just been gravity doing the work, and we know where that takes us...

"Outstanding debt should be written down by 50%, the Fed and all central banks should be eliminated, the TBTF banks should be eliminated, sound money should be reinstituted."

"sound money," based on?

And why only "50%?"  Is that some threshold established by an equation that you'd like to share?

Consider doing these things in Ukraine for practice.  How would that work for them?  They would have "sound money," though how MUCH is kind of the real concern, no?  And given that they have little in the way of resources to market how would they achieve a growth in their "sound money" supply unless otherwise canibalizing what they have (which really isn't growth)?

One can't just pump out these "solutions" and call it good w/o being able to carry through/demonstrate some iterations of action.  And with nearly all other countries being pretty much broke I'm just not seeing where anyone is necessarily going to be doing any "wealth" building, building based on actual increases in market size (growth): don't confuse shifting a market as the market growing- I see the Russia+China pairing more about salvaging some kind of trade: how long before China ends up broke? (can Russia absorb a huge increase in Chinese goods?)

The petro-dollar was a once-in-all-times kind of thing.  The scale of trade that it enabled will never be seen again.  This would necessarily imply that anything else would achieve a lesser level.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 00:41 | 4757862 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

You will find that an historically sustainable total debt (not just federal debt) level is approximately 150% of GDP.  We are currently on a global basis at approximately 320% of GDP.

The gold was there at one time however it was leased out to contain gold prices and paper instrument trading instead of gold trading to set the gold price was introduced.

Sound money based on gold and silver which have a 3,000 year history of market choice as money.  This paper central banking debt moey is a monetary blip.  Lots of historical sources on that to read.

The Ukraine can export grain, develop IP, etc. to trade in return for money transfer. If you like paper money, try Venezuela and all the other failed paper money regimes.

Wealth is built by work and savings.  Not by juicing and trading.  A long forgotten concept.

The petro dollar regime was a chimera built on monetary inflation, brinksmanship and military coercion - in two words - false growth.  The Romans were good at that as was the CCCP, Hitler's Germany, the list goes on.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 21:40 | 4757426 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

isn't it ironic, that to defeat the "vested interest that will take it to their graves" it will take those willing to give up everything they have and hold dear. to become an invisible entity with no ties and go all out attack and to spread out, never concentrate their power.

 

also weird how that parallels the new testament to put down everthing and pick up the cross and follow me.

 

ignore me, i'm still brain tripping from a hard 5 miles in 95 degree high humidity.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 22:21 | 4757546 Seer
Seer's picture

It's kind of common sense, in that if banging one's head against the wall hurts that one should stop it.  As all systems eventually fail the things that have become "desired" are likely to be abondoned.  All those who go first buck the headwinds.  Those that follow closer behind see the path and continue in that direction as well.  And those that wish to hang on to the dying paradigm and its symbols end up dying under their weight.

The TRUE fundamentals NEVER change (and nee no iconic representation to spell them out): Food, Shelter and Water.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 13:38 | 4759700 JoeSoMD
JoeSoMD's picture

What a great link you posted! Hadn't heard of Glub before. Pretty quick read (28 pages). One of his ideas is that it is a weak, unexpected player that emerges and hastens (not causes, but hastens) the collapse of a dominant empire. Who is that player in the now time?

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 20:12 | 4757146 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Either that or, more likely, they stand to gain by the US pitching over the edge.

-Chumblez.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 20:16 | 4757160 Seer
Seer's picture

It's going to happen anyway.  Either one does things for financial gain or for moral reasons; it's kind of up to each to determine what matters...

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 22:27 | 4757543 Raging Debate
Raging Debate's picture

Seer -. You do know what the Council of Nine is, the CFR and G20 are right? That is the NWO pyramid. American leadership willfully passed the baton to China. There is no out of control anything right now to those upstairs in how they view things. There miscalculations are based on the rate of business or evolution which has been accelerated by modern communications and PC's. That will cause some problems later in there planning but hard to speculate how all the details manifest.

China is not going to drop America and Europe as customers, $30 Trillion for $2 T Russia? You will notice a trend that reserve currency peg nations never face a real war. However after they are not...

Part of the job of reserve currency is policing global trade. China is not ready yet so some American and Russian muscle will be used in the interim. There is some friction between Russia and members there upstream but it is a game within a game going on and I am not ready to offer up a theory.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 22:36 | 4757589 Seer
Seer's picture

"China is not going to drop America and Europe as customers,"

And why not?  Do you think that they can continue to accept worthless dollars?  Can't force US consumers to purchase what they cannot afford: and given that the real fundamentals that people will necessarily always have to adhere to -Food, Shelter and Water- are all available w/o imports.

While I'd agree that the high-level "masters" would like something to be some way that keeps them propped up I'll point out that the entire system that they are accustomed to is not sustainable- they have little say so over this.

"There is some friction between Russia and members there upstream but it is a game within a game going on and I am not ready to offer up a theory."

That's kind of a cop-out.  I stated WHY things weren't going to stay under some global control, I gave REASONS.  You're disagreeing but not providing anything substantial to support your positions other than there are powerful people in the world.

Ukraine couldn't be a more perfect example to demonstrate human behavior and to apply this at the global sense.  TPTB, in all locations, ultimately face big populations of people that can and will present large-scale violence, violence right on their doorsteps.  Not that I think that any such violence is going to resolve anything, as it still comes down to whether you have the necessary resources available.  Russia has little interest in the Ukraine, well, little interest in annexing it, as it just presents an additional consumptive load as they face difficulties in maintaining (let along increasing) their revenues.

TPTB's control relies greatly on cheap and available energy.  If they are to create some "new world order" they're going to have to do it with less people: either less people in the "camp" or an outright reduction in lives.  I'm kind of thinking that the major religions won't take a liking to this... (a lot of people are going to gladly die in the name of their god, and the level of asymetrical warfare unleashed here isn't something that TPTB are going to be able to win against)

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 07:33 | 4758202 espirit
espirit's picture

@Seer

Thank you for your critical thinking skills.

/signed: Foot Soldier in Gods Army/

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 07:55 | 4758232 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

Why does God need an army?  Isn't God omnipotent?

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 08:28 | 4758289 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

TPTB's control relies greatly on cheap and available energy. 

...that is under centralized control of course.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 17:19 | 4760602 Raging Debate
Raging Debate's picture

Seer - Did the rest of China's trading partners accept "worthless Yuan"? because of its far lower value to the dollar or Swiss Franc? You may wish to be careful of hyperbole. The dollar dropping to between .50-.60 cents pegged to an upward Yuan revaluation doesn't literally mean a dollar becomes "worthless" now does it?

China does not sell basic staples to the US? Are you high? Nobody in the US is ever going to buy a DVD or TV at Wal-Mart ever again either huh buddy? Your only salient points I have seen on these threads is that localization will take place. Yes, after centralization comes decentralization. Wow.... Your such a genius.

 I have stated here several times Nato expanding into Ukraine is a bad idea. What I am talking about in regards to Russia is that they are playing a game within a game. Putin is a double-agent and I am having a hard time reading him but geopolitically if I was him I see a map and see myself surrounded. I don't offer up a further theory of how Russia may respond because:

#1: They may also be playing along to bankers tune but I don't think Putin may continue to do this. His ultimate reaction may be very unpleasant meaning if I really feel I have a good theory (which I am still solidifying in my mind) I should consider point #2.

#2 Quite a few people read ZH these days. Loose lips sinks ships. My aim here is to mitigate casualties not agitate people to pick sides in what may be WW3.

 What is so wise about your bloviating all over the place? Something wrong with saying I am not quite sure and need more time to provide a more educated opinion? The people that upvoted you are not the brightest bulbs are they?

 Last. The NWO is here. Where the hell have you been? You act like China is some special sovereign "opposing" the USA. They power share with America and the EU but at the top of them in the pyramid is the CFR then the Rothschilds. Such love your kind of thinking as if China and America are becoming enemies. Haven't seen all the articles here on Chinese buying luxury real-estate and art, establishing factories here? They are ping-ponging back and that is great! I gave a numeric based argument of $30 T in GDP's between America and the EU or jeapordizing that for Russian trade at $2T GDP. My opinion is somewhat dry. How I feel is that Russia's borders should be respected and trade increased with them as well. But how I "feel" doesn't usually mean dick in the real world.

Seen the map of Ukraine now? You say "Russia doesn't want to annex". OK ya they ALREADY did! Are you reading the paper from February of last year or something and opining on that news?

 Seer: I was going to be a real asshole to you and really roast you because it is fight club and sometimes you bug me. However, I went easy for I do appreciate you offering up your opinions outside of "we're gonna run out of oil and all die!" commentaries. That is risk-taking and I like that.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 17:20 | 4760603 Raging Debate
Raging Debate's picture

dupe

 

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 00:33 | 4757854 BlindMonkey
BlindMonkey's picture

"They will spin it as good policy. You can pay off your 150K student loan with that gold from your dead granpa's teeth."

I'm pretty sure the teeth will go for food when it is time.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 18:28 | 4756747 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

-

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 20:13 | 4757148 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Totally.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 19:27 | 4756980 BanksterSlayer
BanksterSlayer's picture

You took the words right out of my mouth. JIM WILLIE IS DA' MAN!

 

I believe it was Bugs Bunny who said it best: That's All, Foks!

 

http://youtu.be/l-ceg763Voc

 

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 18:28 | 4756753 dryam
dryam's picture

fonestar tries to hijack another thread when he's got nothing.  Makes one wonder why.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 18:47 | 4756832 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

Because its driving him crazy that Au is still > BTC.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 19:31 | 4757000 83_vf_1100_c
83_vf_1100_c's picture

AG is better than btc. My basket full of old copper pennies will still have worth when the lights go out.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 19:37 | 4757028 fonestar
fonestar's picture

The lights never go out all across the globe.  Not that you would understand or marvel at p2p networking and theory.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 20:14 | 4757152 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

I can't buy tomatoes in China, mother fucker.  Nor would I want to.

I am Chumbawamba.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 22:45 | 4757633 tmosley
tmosley's picture

>China is the only other place in the world.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 20:16 | 4757157 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Doesn't have to go down all over the globe.

If it goes down where YOU are, and all you've got is a block chain, I think, to use a technical term, you are FUCKED.

 

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 20:31 | 4757212 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Hey, I know: let's put all our wealth into an imaginary currency that is so intangible we don't even know where the servers are that store the bits that represent the money we supposedly have.

I am Chumbawamba.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 20:38 | 4757231 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

No, wait, I have a better idea: let's tithe all our money to Goldman-Sachs so that Pope Blankfein can use it for doing God's work.  We can take a vow of poverty and live off of the cafeteria scraps of Goldman's employees while humbly serving them by washing their windshields with newspaper as they are waiting at the exit of their private parking garage.

I am Chumabwamba.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 22:49 | 4757648 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Not really.  You can walk to someplace that does have power.  You have some gold or New Dollars for bribing border guards and buying plane tickets.  You don't have your entire life savings confiscated, just what you had planned to use for bribes.  When you arrive at your destination, you can convert your BTC back into gold for long term storage.  Even better is if you have someone go on ahead and someone who stays behind to buy and sell the BTC, removing most of the risk from the transaction.

This is the path we must follow if we want to be truly mobile as the world descends into cleptocracy.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 08:04 | 4758242 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

As the world descends... why bother running, best to stand and fight.  Bitcoin is an interesting theory but it is inherently elitist (as in you have to be relatively intellectual to understand it and manage it.  It also requires a relatively technologically advanced society in which to function (including energy supply).  It is... interesting Tmos, that you would suggest that one just "hops" on a plane from a place that there is no power, as it is unlikely there would be many flights from such a place. 

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 08:13 | 4758254 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

elitist? most people don't understand money or credit anyway, including many intellectuals. doesn't prevent them to use them

I think your argument is strongest on the "manage it" part

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 22:22 | 4757541 Real Estate Geek
Real Estate Geek's picture

moved

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 19:43 | 4757053 fonestar
fonestar's picture

BTC is where it needs to be today.  It will overtake fake gold soon enough.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 20:17 | 4757162 logicalman
logicalman's picture

I think real gold already did that.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 19:39 | 4757033 fonestar
fonestar's picture

fonestar is here to get everyone excited about buying che@P c0inz!

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 21:58 | 4757483 CaptainObvious
CaptainObvious's picture

Would you kindly stop referring to yourself in the third person?  You are neither royalty nor a rapper.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 22:26 | 4757558 Real Estate Geek
Real Estate Geek's picture

Ever notice how fonestar immediately disrupts threads dealing with topics that TPTB would rather not be discussed?  I think he's an honest-to-goodness paid tool of .gov. 

I wish I could take credit for that insight; however, someone else pointed it out on another thread, and while I forgot his/her name, I'm happy to spread the word.

Tell your masters you've been outed, Phoney.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 00:36 | 4757859 BlindMonkey
BlindMonkey's picture

Solid theory. It works every time too.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 18:59 | 4756866 Whalley World
Whalley World's picture

Martin Armstrong had a fascinating interview with Greg Hunter over at USA watchdog and Armstrong said that when an Empire dies, the periphery currencies always die first.  Once the core (USA) begins to rot, it speeds up in the surrounding territiories.

I have been a dollar bear for 12 years and buying gold and silver since then but M.A. states gold will only take off once the US crashes in 2016.  Until then I shall keep stacking.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 20:10 | 4757138 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Load on contradictory BS on that interview.
Guy needs better meds.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 20:31 | 4757211 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

The Pedrodollar?  Hell, that's what this county runs on during picking season! The Pedrodollar collapse will only happen when Mexicans find it more cost effective to stay home than come here and work for peanuts(literally)... 

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 13:29 | 4759672 Crash Overide
Crash Overide's picture

"Death of the Petrodollar is beginning....and everybody in the U.S. is clueless even to its existence... Words cannot describe how fucked this place is."

 

The business as usual corrupt banker scum, shady globalist trash, and power hungry politicians will hopefully be fucked the hardest. I for one welcome the whole thing come crashing down so we can start with a semi clean slate if that even possible anymore.

In my opinion it's not the end of the world if it all comes down, it's the end of their fiat ponzi. Human being are adaptive and resilient, we got this bitchez!

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 18:20 | 4756716 Notveryamused
Notveryamused's picture

63% of total hashing power & key chip manufacturers are already under Western control. Once you see what they have in store with Goldman via Circle.com & Bitcoin 2.0 you will understand why Russia and China keen to have an alternative global payment system won't go near Bitcoin with a barge pole.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 19:40 | 4757042 FinalEvent
FinalEvent's picture

How do you like my new avatar?

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 20:51 | 4757270 Al Capowned
Al Capowned's picture

Fonestar I have written a song you will love keep eye on BTC reddit tomorrow

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 21:32 | 4757400 Mad Muppet
Mad Muppet's picture

What prattling nonsense.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 00:10 | 4757816 BrosephStiglitz
BrosephStiglitz's picture

Maybe if you like simultaneously taking on every global bank and developed government at once.  Call me stupid but I'd rather pick my battles than fight a grudge match on multiple fronts.  It's also intangible.  That puts me off in a big way.

You are sitting on a political powder keg.  My guess is that BTC gets crushed by a competitor with an "ownership advantage" (see: an alternative cryptocurrency that is willing to play ball with the banks) and it will go the way of Netscape.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 11:10 | 4759012 bcking
bcking's picture

I <3 fonestar

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 18:04 | 4756665 Occident Mortal
Occident Mortal's picture

Obama: "cross my red line and there will be costs"

Putin: "no shit! BwHahahahaha"

Obama: "did he sound scared?"

Kerry: "uh... I'll ask my wife"

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 19:05 | 4756890 mt paul
mt paul's picture

kerry  thinks

 

the red line is made with ketchup 

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 21:15 | 4757351 knukles
knukles's picture

What do John Kerry and ketchup have in common?

They're both vegetables!

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 22:17 | 4757531 Hulk
Hulk's picture

I though catchup was a fruit. I know John Kerry is a fruit...

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 20:20 | 4757174 Clycntct
Clycntct's picture

It can't be fixed from the inside.

Let the fixing begin.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 07:54 | 4758231 Dugald
Dugald's picture

 

ZAP!   POW!   KAPLOOIE!

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 18:10 | 4756611 Arius
Arius's picture

Let the games begin ...

 

Now the picture becomes crystal clear why BoA and Morgan picked the last two weeks to call the 1300 top ....

you got the nuclear exercises and now this ...

well, lets hope we will make it to the other side of the tunnel, it is certainly a tunnel coming up and I cannot see the other side from where we stand right now...

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 18:13 | 4756698 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Beware the light at the end of the tunnel...
Bring KI

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 18:30 | 4756764 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

Don't go into the light.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 20:07 | 4757125 SilverIsMoney
SilverIsMoney's picture

"I am INVINCIBLE!!!!"

-That geek from goldeneye shortly before being cryogenically frozen

 

LOL Dude, that was BORIS the Russian Guy!

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 22:37 | 4757590 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Black knight, black president.  Same thing, I guess.

"We'll call it a draw."

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 09:16 | 4758429 JRobby
JRobby's picture

The Black Night always triumphs!

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 18:01 | 4756647 prains
prains's picture

Petro dollar hegemony is the sweet nut sack of the nSSA, once Russia China and Iran kick it, the bully falls to the ground unable to fight

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 18:30 | 4756768 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

Of course you know this means war.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 18:43 | 4756815 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Always has before , and no, its not different this time.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 18:43 | 4756818 caShOnlY
caShOnlY's picture

Of course you know this means war

yes sir! only 2 choices are present:  Use the mighty military to finally force the world into submission to keep petrodollar alive or use what is left to try to keep the masses from a civil war.   I choose "pre-emptive nuclear strike on Russia for $1000, Alex"

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 18:57 | 4756863 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Why else do you think Vlad left his rocket forces on
heightened alert status after last weeks exercises ?
He is not stupid.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 20:20 | 4757171 logicalman
logicalman's picture

I have a real problem with being a game piece in a game I don't want to have any part of.

Call me funny.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 20:32 | 4757216 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

I'd call you logical...

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 21:35 | 4757407 sangell
sangell's picture

You are wrong. Both Putin AND you are stupid. You are the greater fool though because you think Putin smart.

OK how smart is it to send your biggest and best customer scrambling for alternative gas supplies ( tiny Lithuania just got a 20% price cut from Gazprom if it would not buy its gas from Qatar) when you can't even begin to export gas to your only alternative market no sooner than 2018 and only if China agrees to pay more than Lithuania AND give you $20 billion to build the pipeline? Is that smart? What if Iran and the US offer to supply gas to Europe for less than $11 per million BTU to Europe which is what Gazprom is charging while Putin wants to sell it to China for over $13.

If you think that is smart you sir are an idiot.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 00:44 | 4757875 BlindMonkey
BlindMonkey's picture

So you use the physical difficulty of transport to support your position. Cool
.

Let's go the other way. Which community on the eastern seaboard will be willing to have a LNG cryo facility in its backyard? You know, the juicy tango target? How many years will it take to get the lawsuits settled and shovels in the ground building? Just curious.

Iran? Interesting call. That would require lifting the embargos on imports as well as massive foreign investment. Who do you think would stand in the way of that? Bibi perhaps?

Good luck.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 02:44 | 4758008 Mabussur
Mabussur's picture

You fail to see the trend. Fact is that Russia and the US split the cake in half. Russia supplies NG to China ans the US will (eventually, when the dust settles) supply EU with Qatari NG. Game, Set. Match. Go back to work, slave or they'll have you whipped.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 19:08 | 4756912 acommenter
acommenter's picture

Why not both? Use half the remaining dollars to diminish the economic power of the "allies" and half for domestic perseverance.

Also, the notion that police stations can get MRAPs from the military at only procedural costs is laughable....

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 19:01 | 4756875 Seer
Seer's picture

There may be guestures of such, but I doubt that the US is going to go to war against Russia+China+Iran.  For what?  The US would have to take over all three of these countries in order to force them to comply with its desires to control the resources and markets.

This is where the global aliances break up.  All those tired of the IMF, NATO and the UN should rejoice.  The US finally gets to bring its troops home: albeit home to a collapsed economy, but home at last.

Let's not forget that the US is still one of the top three countries in the world when viewed in an isolationist picture.  Internal consumption rates will, of course, decline quite a bit, but this is going to happen eventually anyway, and to everyone across the globe.

Any "declaration" of war will primarily be about refusing to pay off debts to those other countries.  This is exactly what I've been figuring is going to be the end game.  No need to throw bodies out there to catch bullets, this one's going to be one of bits and bytes.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 19:56 | 4757090 DanDaley
DanDaley's picture

"...this one's going to be one of bits and bytes."

 

I tend to agree, but as R.E. Lee said, Things will get out of hand.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 20:22 | 4757179 Seer
Seer's picture

I suspect that the US is going to have a tough time gathering up bodies to toss out there again.

Bang bang actions are likely going to come from some Dr. Strangelove type or from some system bug (bits and bytes).  Since this may pull in nuclear-level shit I'm thinking that others will really think twice about this: and if Russia and China and Iran (and India?) can find a good trade situation then they may just say fuck the West and get on with their lives.

I just see where the US can say "fuck you" and retract into a highly defendable landscape (except Hawaii and Alaska).  And given that we've still got the 2nd Amendment it's going to be a pretty tough going for anyone wishing to invade.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 00:57 | 4757722 Drifter
Drifter's picture

But easy going for invasion from within apparently. 

No "patriot" response to communism brought by our own govt. 

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 21:44 | 4757446 Drifter
Drifter's picture

"This business will get out of control and we'll be lucky to live thru it."  -- Admiral Painter

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 20:17 | 4757161 Mike in GA
Mike in GA's picture

Agreed that even this inept group running things won't be stupid enough to attempt conventional war "over there" and that bits and bytes will be the force that brings down the economies of all concerned.  Still stupid though.

What is worrisome however, is the old saw about "when goods quit crossing borders, troops will".  Thus, backing into conventional war somewhere, - even if, as usual, through proxies -seems more likely than not.

How much trade in rubles are we really talking here?  If every barrel of oil and BTU of gas traded by Russia settled in rubles rather than dollars wouldn't that just set up yet another category of oil to be arbitraged?  And that may not accrue to Russia's benefit given their previous history. 

How long will Russia's exporting prowness last once the cutting edge American E&P processes and techniques are removed? 

 

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 20:26 | 4757195 Seer
Seer's picture

Goods will stop abeing globally transported.  It's going to happen sooner or later as energy scarcity sets in more.

"How long will Russia's exporting prowness last once the cutting edge American E&P processes and techniques are removed?"

Yes.  It's not all that easy, and I doubt that Putin and such believe it is either.  But, it's what they have to do.  Global growth is dead, in which case they should feel that and sense that this is just a way to settle down a bit easier down the other side of the curve.  Margin compression will continue to press on them, as it will everyone else, and that'll be felt internally.  No one is going to escape pain, and there is no "return to normal."

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 22:13 | 4757452 sangell
sangell's picture

China is not going to go to war on Russia's behalf. This isn't fantasy football where you get to 'pick' your 'team'. China has got its hands full now with ASEAN states in an uproar over Chinese territorial claims in the South China Sea. ASEAN is a 'team' of sort that represents about 600 million people. The third largest economy is still Japan and its firmly on the American team. Russia faces west not east and to its west lies NATO which includes the 4th, 5th and 6th economies and over the horizon is the number 1 global power the USA with Canada 'firmly anchored' as Central Bankers would say to the US bloc. Iran is a non factor easily countered by either Israel or Saudi Arabia.

At least learn arithmetic before you start doing global strategy. With whom does China trade? Not Russia, its biggest trading partner is the EU, then the US. Russia isn't even in the top ten.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 22:58 | 4757669 Seer
Seer's picture

"China is not going to go to war on Russia's behalf. This isn't fantasy football where you get to 'pick' your 'team'."

I agree on the later.  As to the former one has to ask "what kind of war?"  As I've been indicating, I believe it'll be a bits and bytes war, trade sanctions and such.  China is NOT going to end up supporting the US; AND, it has become addicted to OIL. which Russia has (and is in the best situation to supply).

"The third largest economy is still Japan"

But aren't we talking about horses at the glue factory?  We're comparing numbers based on numbers that are in each passing day showing up to be less and less meaningful.  Japan's "number three" position can be taken down as fast as Fukushima went up.  Japan's a small-ish island country that is heavily dependt upon exports in order to obtain energy imports; and with its exports faultering one can start to see its lights flickering...

"over the horizon is the number 1 global power the USA with Canada 'firmly anchored'"

Anchored to WHAT?

Credibility, for the US anyway, is rapidly crumbling.  And with massive debts its only real "power"- military- is running on borrowed time: I'd further add that the "enemies" that such military would be targeting are highly unlikey to be overrun (we're not talking Grenada or Afghanistan [though, FAIL]).

"Iran is a non factor easily countered by either Israel or Saudi Arabia."

Really, without the support of the US?  Not probable.  Again, Iran doesn't need to do shit other than to form a business partnership with folks; and if this entails joining some other money club then is Israel or Saudia Arabia going to rish unleashing a holy war over That?

"With whom does China trade?"

Aren't we discussing FUTURE trends/possibilities?  The theme of the article is in that of a drastically changing trade environment.  Given change is certain I don't see how one can stay stuck in the mud over static snapshot of the board.

"At least learn arithmetic before you start doing global strategy."

Well, one could congratulate you being a great shot and all, but when you select the wrong target that really doesn't do a lot of good.  You might want to look into a little logic while others are going over their math skills.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 01:28 | 4757930 Serenity Now
Serenity Now's picture

sangell,

Great post.  Full of clarity, which I appreciate.

seer,

I'm still trying to figure out your posts.  They are good, but not as concise.  I think I agree with you, but I'm not yet sure.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 08:24 | 4758280 caShOnlY
caShOnlY's picture

but I doubt that the US is going to go to war against Russia+China+Iran

I agree, this will be a "nuclear shock and awe" on Russua to deter China and Iran from even getting involved.  These chaps are desperate as the dollars days are being numbered in single digits.  You don't think the world knows the FED is buying US debt through Belgium?  You don't think the ruse won't produce the same results just at a later date?  The key for them is to look forward into the future and who is the massive energy player? RUSSIA!!  and Russia holds the cards, NOT GOOD!  So take them out, save petrodollar and show China how to build a Mao monument out of gold.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 20:06 | 4757120 MakeMineADouble
MakeMineADouble's picture

I am thinking that a lot of real estate is going to be obliterated when this starts to go down.  I expect to see a war unlike any I have ever seen in my lifetime.  It is gonna be hell on earth.

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 18:44 | 4756817 Slave
Slave's picture

And India will follow whatever China does. Then you've got half the fucking world not using it. Kiss that reserve currency status goodbye. The dominos will fall fast at that point. Not really rocket science...or maybe it is for the average American?

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 19:02 | 4756883 sushi
sushi's picture

I think the dominos have already fallen. Picture yourself as the head of some small struggling state. The USSA taps your phones - nothing you can do. The USSA wants to play military / security games - nothing you can do. The USSA wants to reset the terms of trade - nothing you can do. The USSA wants to drone your citizens - nothing you can do. The USSA works to screw up the Copenhagen Accords so you are going to be underwater in 25 years - nothing you can do. You have the option of embracing a new reserve currency  which pulls the rug out from arrogant Uncle Sam? - That you can do. And they all will.

 

Tue, 05/13/2014 - 20:31 | 4757214 Seer
Seer's picture

It's really what TPTB can do to avoid the most pain FOR THEMSELVES.

The countries that have big decisions to make would be Japan, Australia and nearly all of Europe.  Europe is likely going to have to shift away from US policy-making/control and bend over a bit for Russia (if Europe can even afford to do so- no matter, it's going to get pretty bleak there).  Anyone see how Australia and Japan are going to move as this all goes down?

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