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Bye Taper Tantrum, Hello Tepper Tantrum: Appaloosa Head "Nervous", Says "Dont' Be Too Freakin' Long"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Almost exactly a year ago Bernanke unleashed what Zero Hedge first dubbed the Taper Tantrum. Moments ago, the head of Appaloosa revealed what may be the catchphrase of mid-2014 with the "Tepper Tantrum", when during his presentation at the annual SALT conference in Las Vegas, the usually bubbly and cheerful billionaire (who last year made $400,000 per hour or a total of $3.5 billion) spooked everyone and in what for someone who has traditionally been long everything on leverage can pass as sheer doom and gloom basically told his wide audience that he is "nervous, it's nervous time" and in this "dangerous market", it is "time to preserve money"; his advice to anyone listening: "don't be too freakin' long".

From Bloomberg:

  • TEPPER MORE WORRIED ABOUT DEFLATION THAN INFLATION
  • TEPPER SAYS U.S. ECONOMY SHOULD BE MOVING FASTER
  • TEPPER SAYS THIS IS A ‘MIXED ENVIRONMENT’
  • TEPPER SAYS THE MARKET IS KIND OF ‘DANGEROUS’
  • TEPPER SAYS DON’T TO BE TOO ‘FREAKIN LONG’
  • TEPPER SAYS THIS IS A ‘TOUGH MARKET’
  • TEPPER SAYS ‘TIME TO PRESERVE MONEY’, HAVE CASH
  • TEPPER SAYS IF ECB DOESN’T CUT IT’S NOT OK
  • TEPPER SAYS I AM NERVOUS, IT’S NERVOUS TIME
  • TEPPER SAYS HE’S NOT RECOMMENDING SHORT, JUST NOT TOO LONG

The punchline: "We have this term called coordinated complacency to describe the world’s central banks right now. The market’s kind of dangerous in a way."

And showing just what is important in today's market, stocks may have completely ignored the ridiculous Japanese pre-tax hike GDP print (which incidentally means no BOJ boost to QE in July or any time soon for that matter), but they certainly did not like what Tepper had to say.

 

Something tells us this Gloomy and Doomy Tepper will not be as welcome on CNBC as the cheery one from years gone by, who could lift the S&P by 1% with merely a smirk.

 

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Wed, 05/14/2014 - 20:20 | 4761153 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Geithner must have given him a blow job also. Can we just rename Wall Street "Lewinskyville" and get it over with?

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 20:22 | 4761157 Slave
Slave's picture

‘TIME TO PRESERVE MONEY’, HAVE CASH

I'm confused, am I supposed to have USD or money?

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 20:26 | 4761167 Rootin' for Putin
Rootin' for Putin's picture

i think he means, you have to ditch your stocks, take the cash, go to the bank and buy silver or gold coins.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 20:27 | 4761173 alphamentalist
alphamentalist's picture

thankfully, by fate or genes, i have never had to worry about being too long

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 20:44 | 4761217 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

Do as I did and marry an Asian; I am, in fact, 'too beaucoup."

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 20:47 | 4761225 alphamentalist
alphamentalist's picture

it's worse, mate. i did.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 21:08 | 4761279 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

For a fund of that size to go short it must plan well in advance. If he's saying not to go short yet it's because he doesn't want the competition. First one to panic will win!!!

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 21:29 | 4761329 alphamentalist
alphamentalist's picture

not really. everything is too rich. when it breaks it will be an index level trade. no need to muck about with single names. can just just sell a boat load of ES and call it a day. and, at last check, he could trade, levered a few times, well inside of a day's volume without ever being aggressive. 

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 22:31 | 4761457 Mistress Raindrop
Mistress Raindrop's picture

I've got your taper tantrum.  I've got it haning between my legs.  Bitches.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 21:04 | 4761260 BrosephStiglitz
BrosephStiglitz's picture

No he probably really does mean to be in cash.  Deflation does seem relatively likely in the short-term unless the Fed literally starts tossing cash from choppers, but the question is for how long aggregate debt levels are sustainable in a deflationary spiral.

I am hedged in cash, PMs and necessities.  When the situation plays out I will adjust accordingly.  I also like Japan for its fundamentals but I will not be touching their stocks until there is a "blood in the streets" moment.

Ultimately PMs are my insurance policy against debt implosion, bank default, currency collapse, or a hyperinflationary full retard moment by the central banks in a "who can trash their currency to boost exports faster" moment (which might be analogous with a currency collapse in the later stages).

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 20:30 | 4761178 Eternal Complainer
Eternal Complainer's picture

Neither! You're a slave! You're supposed to have a handful of maxed out credit cards and that's it otherwise you're unpatriotic!

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 20:27 | 4761169 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Sweet.

Crash tomorrow?

Glad I'm not in the casino!  I'm smoking in the parking lot.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 20:27 | 4761170 TideFighter
TideFighter's picture

What the fuck happened to Geithner's [lack of] eyebrows? 

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 20:43 | 4761215 BrosephStiglitz
BrosephStiglitz's picture

He sold them to Lucifer for an extra 2 inches and a Barnes & Noble book deal.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 21:44 | 4761359 Eyeroller
Eyeroller's picture

So that makes him 2.5 inches now, eh?

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 22:41 | 4761483 Bernankenstein
Bernankenstein's picture

Kukla asked for Tim to return the eyebrows. I do believe TG is the illegitimate offspring of Kukla.

http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/41Ma4oCaqzL.jpg

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 20:34 | 4761179 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

"Anyway, he says the evidence is "so overwhelming" and that the economy is getting better.

Tepper told CNBC that there's $400 billion in the economy looking for a place to go, according to his calculations.  

What's more is Tepper says that the market shouldn't be worried about Fed tapering.  He added, "For guys that are short, they better have themselves a shovel to get out of the grave."

He said later in the interview that he's "nervous to be short anything."  

Speaking of Fed tapering, he says that if there isn't a true taper, we might look like the last half of 1999. He says June is not a bad time to taper down.  June 19 is the next Fed meeting.  

Host Mandy Drury asked Tepper if he's just bullish on the U.S. stock market.  He's bullish everywhere.

"I think every place is the place to be," adding that he thinks the tail risk has been taken out. Tepper says that he's long Japan.  

"I don't like bonds long term, but good luck.  Good luck." 

Again, Tepper is long Japan.  There are folks who think it's going down.  He says, "Stop. Stupidity is running wild."

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/david-tepper-on-cnbc-2013-5#ixzz31jueb1RH

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 20:52 | 4761236 SilverIsMoney
SilverIsMoney's picture

WOW! So either...

 

1) The article is BS (doubtful)

or

2) He's proven to be cheerleading in public for unclear motives while in a more private setting he's singing a different tune

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 07:22 | 4761894 Flux
Flux's picture

If you look at the link the Fonz has provided, that was in May 14, 2013. Almost a year ago, to the day. Out of curiosity, I did a quick look at some of his positions then:

  • Japan Market, "Long Japan": Nikkei dropped about 20% a few days later. Fluctuated since then, never hitting a new high. Meh.
  • US Market, "Very Bullish": Up about 14% since then. Good call.
  • Citigroup, "biggest holding": Took a dive shortly thereafter, fluctuated, currently down 8%. Oops.
  • Bonds, "good luck": Bonds got hammered. Good call.
  • Apple and JP Morgan "small positions": Apple is up 50%, JP about 10%. Good call.

--------------------

He was also long on tech stocks, which may explain his recent turnaround. For the most part, It seem a lot of his public predictions are based largely on 6 month run ups. You look at Japan and the US market, Citigroup, and JPM. All had strong 6 month run ups. Apple was the only non-momo pick he made.

I dunno, just based on these two articles, he comes across as a brash, arrogant momo trader. With the sort of market we've had, anyone with that disposition would have done well. And anyone with that disposition would also be worried now.

"You think, wow, thats a smart monkey. But he's not." - Bogle

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 20:59 | 4761248 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

think that was from summer or fall 2013, and the Turd Tepper was right, in hindsight. remember that day well as i was balls to the wall short for a scalp, and got crushed cuz of that smug prick...

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 21:01 | 4761264 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

it's from right about when Bernanke said Taper. then bernanke screamed "just kidding". this time they are actually doing it and Tepper is shitting his bald pants.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 20:30 | 4761182 centerline
centerline's picture

TEPPER SAYS 'TANKS IN FUCKING STREETS' IF I DONT GET MY WAY BITCHES

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 20:46 | 4761222 TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

I have no idea how the central banks can calmly step these markets down. The DOW could drop 1500 points--no problem. Be interesting how many trading halt triggers are hit on the downside. At least the market can not castrate Yellen!

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 21:14 | 4761286 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

The actual action is called "breaking the trade."

In other words once the Freq Show drops XOM 90% in three minutes "those trades represent non conformities" and therefore don't count.

In other words stop loss orders are killers here...and the entire options market appears to me to be suicide mission.

We simply do not know...EVEN NOW!!!!!...what specifically is on these Banks' balance sheets!!!!!

The State of Illinois????
The State of Ohio????

I mean...if that's the case "you sure don't wan to be Florida or Arizona."

Those States are wholly dependent on pensioners for their economic well being.

If the price of ice suddenly doubles here....well, "what's the alternative again?"

Move to the Mountains?

Treasuries are saying to me "be very afraid"...but not of deflation.

I would argue "be very afraid of debt" in any form as cash money itself is being targeted by monetary authorities for Total Annhilation.

A good example is Bank America which simply stopped accepting "California IOU's" in lieu of a paycheck.

So sure...you can run on "Hope and Change" but DOLARES is what's paying the bills.

Since those DOLARES only exist within the Bank...sure, they'll the taxpayer TRILLIONS...but at some point they'll be forced to ask the question "where is the recovery again?"

We've already had Detroit...but these things can daisy chain here.

Hank Paulson played The Confidence Game in my view PERFECTLY...but what about when the next 2008 hits?

We already know now we can't default to gold. That window has "Ben" CLOSED.

In my book that only leaves one asset left...and that ain't oil "Big Tex"...but CREDIT.

Only a total WACKO is extending credit here.

And of course Wall Street is all over this like stink on shit...with huge M&A!

So sure...those guys are taking in 100 million dollar paychecks on a single deal...but the rest of 'merica is having to make do on slave wages.

Forget paying for that lifeguard in Evanston...I mean these are entire public sector pension plans. And the answer is...what again?

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 02:57 | 4761739 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

I really hope you find it cathartic to post here, otherwise it's just a complete waste of space to the rest of us.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 21:45 | 4761364 Eyeroller
Eyeroller's picture

Yellen's a woman???

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 02:59 | 4761741 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Well, yeah, according to them.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 20:47 | 4761227 Solomon the KING
Solomon the KING's picture

"not worried about inflation" has he seen food / energy prices?

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 21:01 | 4761261 J Pancreas
J Pancreas's picture

The guys a billionaire - you won't see him pushing a cart at Whole Foods or buying a p-trap at Lowe's. No way he sees what us underlings see.

 

Any billionaire who gives free advise I'm quite skeptical of (IE Soros).

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 20:50 | 4761233 dirtyfiles
dirtyfiles's picture

translation:too late to be long but no shorting ether just stand by ...

to me he is wrong

if you short Russell 2000 stocks you have nice profit by now same with NASDAQ and this two indexes will anchor rest of the market for sure

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 21:54 | 4761386 Carpenter1
Carpenter1's picture

Agree, just look at a 1 year Russel chart and if you cant see a fall coming you're blind.  I've been short small caps for 2 months and done very well, thanks anyway "highly leveraged" Tepper. Guy talks like he's some sort of risk avoider when his trading is as leveraged and risky as it gets.

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 14:18 | 4763423 BearOfNH
BearOfNH's picture

TZA is a convenient way to play the R2000 short.

Yes I'm talking my book.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 20:52 | 4761235 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

Talking his book again - no doubt he's been mostly in cash for a while...

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 21:15 | 4761290 DirkDiggler11
DirkDiggler11's picture

No, he's just lying his ass off. He's short as hell this market right now, he just doesn't want to make enemies of his front-running, info leaking, Fed buddies by further unraveling the Fed's handiwork.

He know his statements will help the markets continue lower, though not cause an avalanche to the downside. He will book his tidy profit, and go back on the sidelines for a while, go long in early June, then make a few more positive comments about the Feds work and the markets, then ride the next leg higher, then back to the sidelines.

See how this game is played ? It's easy when you always get the inside word. Note he NEVER disses the Fed and their Frankenstein creations that are our financial markets and monetary system.

Fucking piece of shit.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 21:57 | 4761391 new game
new game's picture

these sub-humans are the enemy that all you wall st. wanabees cum in your shorts to be- one big fuck you...

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 21:08 | 4761277 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

But is it "balls to the wall" dangerous or "just a little bit" dangerous? C'mon! You are fucking PAID! Which is it?

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 21:14 | 4761287 Spungo
Spungo's picture

I'm always long.
-Lexington Steele 

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 21:39 | 4761351 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

Sell, he said.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 21:43 | 4761355 cdm
cdm's picture

 

tepper's hourly take is understated by 20 percent ...

 

3.5 bil. USD on 8,760 hours assumes that

the man does not sleep.

 

assuming 4 hours of sleep per day yields

a more appropriate basis of 7,300 hours

for 2013. it seems not unreasonable to

consider only the waking hours, true ?

 

and thus the hourly take was in the

neighborhood of $480K USD.

 

of course, tepper may have only needed

a very small fraction of his waking hours

to set forth his most profitable schemes.

and he might even brag so much to

those lower on the list ...

 

however, there are other lists which relate

"hourly take" to "living days" in an inverse

proportional manner.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 21:47 | 4761370 Paracelsus
Paracelsus's picture

I remember when all those dollars which went to Asia during the late 60's circled up to Europe,and then France started repatriating thru the "gold window" (Bretton-Woods agreement).Nixon stopped convertability,a technical default for the USA,and then shortly the Mideast war,then oil embargo,then inflation.World currencies were allowed to float,good for some,not so good for others (recall mexico then?).

Best suggestion is buy some farmland.You will always have food.Others not so sure..

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 22:05 | 4761405 junction
junction's picture

If Tepper keeps making these rather bizarre observations on the economy, the Rothschilds will have no choice but to fire him and get someone else to front for them and other members of the Illuminati.  Luckily for Tepper, using a nail gun to fire him is not an available option anymore.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 23:36 | 4761564 bardot63
bardot63's picture

Am predicting Tepper will be walking it back on the CNBLewinsky channel in the morning.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 23:42 | 4761574 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

No POMO tomorrow... Nice setup Tepper.

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 02:54 | 4761736 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Fuck it then, I'm going long on this alone.

#Timestamp

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 03:19 | 4761762 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Go Pirates.

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 09:13 | 4762141 spine001
spine001's picture

Wow CNBC is quoting Tepper, and Kramer is saying it makes him nervous because he respects Tepper and now his co-anchor is saying exactly what we are saying here, that Tepper may be self serving and just trying to create volatility. These guys speak without teleprompters and some times you get what they really are thinking, it slips through. And Kramer is defending Tepper. 9:07 am to 9:10 am

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