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One Of These Charts Is Not Like The Other

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Overnight saw big demand for Treasuries with futures heavily bid during the European session as the ECB backtracked on its QE promise. That strength continues this morning as the long-end of the Treasury complex rips lower in yield - despite higher than expected inflation - as traders react reflexively to the implication that higher inflation implies less room for an un-tapering Fed and thus now implies no savior for slowing real growth. As the following chart suggests - something is amiss with cross-market expectations...

 

JPY carry and bonds are not as excited as stocks about growth opportunities...

 

As Treasury futures were well bid in the EU session...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Wed, 05/14/2014 - 09:42 | 4758573 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

We gotta keep the phoney-baloney stawks up, or our phoney-baloney jobs might be in danger!

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 09:45 | 4758589 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Wall Street needs muppets feeding at the trough.  That are keeping the illusion going as the insiders cash out.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 09:48 | 4758609 flacon
flacon's picture

The "insiders cashing out" meme has been going for at least two years straight now.... I wonder if that story has any truth to it at all. 

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 09:49 | 4758621 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

They are just holding this thing up until just after the elections

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 09:57 | 4758652 Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

that's what i'm telling the trading desk, fonz

they're talking PPI and shit.

the FED will NOT let the illusion fade that all is well.

november bubble on the way

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 09:58 | 4758658 Tabarnaque
Tabarnaque's picture

Until the other side of the world stops using the US dollar.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 10:05 | 4758698 flacon
flacon's picture

The "holding it up until 'the' election" meme has been going for many, many years now too.... just sayin'... the crash is "just around the corner!" meme is getting old -- until one day it finally happens, but it will likely happen when nobody expects it to, like the May 6th flash crash a couple of years ago. The pundits will all look in astonishment because "it's not an election year, the insiders started to buy again, and there is no reason why this market crashed".  

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 10:09 | 4758734 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Yeah,  this "de-dollarization" meme will catch on in the rest of the world quickly while the sheeple muppets in the U.S. remain blissfully oblivious to it because "we're exceptionall"(ly)  dumb fuckers!

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 10:48 | 4758933 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

sorry guys i was being sarcastic

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 11:12 | 4759020 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Wait, Maybe you hit on something.  If everything is manipulated, that means they can cause a market crash at will.
If that's the case, they will wait until after the 2016 elections when they give us some establishment Repub for POTUS. 
Why crash it on a Repub? Because in theory, they represent less gov. involvement, and that idea must be extinguished.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 11:22 | 4759070 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

it makes a lot of sense that a repub gets in and starts trying to cut the deficit and spending and the whole thing implodes around them. then everyone screams "why did we do that when it has become clear debt does not matter!".

then we go back to the usual ways. to me it comes back to M2 and velocity. it's why the gold bugs will remain frustrated even with this inflation data today. until the masses demand moar money for themselves the fed will try to avoid Nirp and keep the markets levitated. 

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 11:37 | 4759158 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Yup, I think it's all theater until the lights finally go out.  The problem I see with money velocity is that we are comparing the US to other past economies that over printed.  The difference is they weren't a global financial empire and couldn't export their fiat.  In this case the US is the center of the financial empire and when empires fall, the provinces fall first while the middle holds strong until the last moment when it all collapses.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 10:12 | 4758750 Eyeroller
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There would have already been a crash/correction were it not for Aunty Ponzi Munchkin peddling her printing meth.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 10:03 | 4758696 SheepDog-One
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Just like we heard all thru 2011? Just for the elections.....well there's always an election coming so then it never ends.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 09:57 | 4758654 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Insiders are collecting muppet's cash is true. Cashing out is questionable.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 10:05 | 4758707 John Law Lives
Wed, 05/14/2014 - 10:06 | 4758712 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

I wasn't aware that meme had been propagated for two years.  Did you have a chance to view this article?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-17/if-smart-money-selling-whos-buying

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 09:45 | 4758594 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

is it a crisis?

is it a recession?

is it a depression?

HAVE NO FEAR!! SUPERGOVERNMENT IS HERE!!

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 09:50 | 4758624 flacon
flacon's picture

Biden: "The economy isn't getting worse, it's just not getting better"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lI1epo3cFH8 

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 10:08 | 4758728 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Lowered Expectations (about everything) = Lowerd Demand (for everything)

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 09:50 | 4758626 intric8
intric8's picture

what does hormel stock price have to do with my job

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 09:44 | 4758580 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

something is going to break very, very soon.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 09:45 | 4758593 BobPaulson
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Jesus is coming soon too.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 09:47 | 4758608 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

So is Peter North

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 09:48 | 4758613 FredFlintstone
FredFlintstone's picture

Doesn't the Antichrist come first ? Can someone fill me in on the who, what and where of that milestone?

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 09:56 | 4758647 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

She's already amongst us, HRC

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 10:00 | 4758673 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

That's a really mean insult to the Antichrist dude!

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 10:05 | 4758709 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Actually it would be Gabrielle Giffords, per Revelations "I saw one of his heads as if it had been slain, and his fatal wound was healed. And the whole earth was amazed and followed after the beast".  So beware the Gabrielle Gifford cometh for you.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 10:11 | 4758740 Squid Viscous
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What about Hillary Ramrod's aneuryism/stroke or whatever she had...?

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 11:29 | 4759115 Emergency Ward
Emergency Ward's picture

"I really, really can't recall, really...."

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 11:49 | 4759223 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

WHAT DIFFERENCE, AT THIS POINT, DOES IT MAKE?!?!?!

(Hope the next one is a killer)

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 12:23 | 4759392 Muppet
Muppet's picture

My brother had a small stroke.  The specialist doctor brought in mentioned to him that his specific event was the same as what Hillary had.   The doctor commented that Hillary's event was kept quiet (since Hillary may run for Prez?).     I believe the doc was referring to the reported fall that Hillary had around the time of the Bengazi heardings.   Until I read mention of it above, I didn;t know anyone knew about this.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 13:07 | 4759572 Muppet
Wed, 05/14/2014 - 10:08 | 4758695 Okienomics
Okienomics's picture

Actually, it appears Planet X comes first.  Niburu is a bitch.

 

http://www.escapeallthesethings.com/comet-ison-nibiru.htm

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 10:58 | 4758756 socalbeach
socalbeach's picture

yes. no.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 10:30 | 4758839 cherry picker
cherry picker's picture

Which one do you think fits the Anti Christ mold better, Obama or Putin?

To be honest, I think Obama does more anti christ stuff with the drones and spying nevermind taking away rights and liberties than Putin.

Aside from that, Russia invaded Georgia and was out in a few monthys, how many places has Obama's crew set up shop in?

 

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 09:44 | 4758581 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

On the one hand, this is an outrageous waste of taxpayer funds. On the gripping hand, they're still hiring so we got that going for us...

http://www.kmov.com/news/investigates/News-4-investigates-Workers-paid-t...

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BLKi0EWpjFI

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 09:44 | 4758586 Gypsyducks
Gypsyducks's picture

"Tell Blythe's replacement to get on the offers in Comex!" - Jamie D.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 09:46 | 4758600 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

   The move in the German 10year is also pretty impressive.

       Germany 10Y    1.377    1.425    1.426    1.375    -0.048    (-3.37%)    13:44:15

 Glad I covered my usd/jpy long position @ 102.24 last night.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 09:56 | 4758651 Boston
Boston's picture

The US 10yr yield is at a critical support level. If 2.55% doesn't hold, there's a bit of support at 2.45% from July and Oct 2013, but then NOTHING until around 2.0%

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 09:47 | 4758605 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Damn that flattening curve has got to hurt.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 10:41 | 4758890 elwind45
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If you found a situation were Italian and American bonds shared the same YTM what would you do?

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 09:49 | 4758618 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

No one is stupid enough to buy this risk assett!

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 09:52 | 4758635 youngman
youngman's picture

I bet the Fed is confused...they are tapering but inflation is going up???  It has to have them spinning...

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 10:15 | 4758762 Eyeroller
Eyeroller's picture

Next comment from the Ponzi Munchkin will be "The taper isn't working.."

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 11:51 | 4759232 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Taper on Ben, taper on Janet.  Fed world, party time!

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 09:54 | 4758639 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

Just keep buying MCD, CAT, and apple pie... and don't forget the "wounded warriors"

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 10:06 | 4758711 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture
Citigroup Fires 11 More People Amid Probe of Banamex

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-14/citigroup-fires-11-more-people-...

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 10:21 | 4758800 elwind45
elwind45's picture

Fed is reaping a reward for ending QE and opening up room at the auction for more interested parties who feel alot better about treasuries since ending QE will cause a contraction of the money supply?

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 11:10 | 4759013 thamnosma
thamnosma's picture

Contracting the money supply?  LOL.  Do you know how much it's been increased by over the last 8 years?

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 10:29 | 4758832 elwind45
elwind45's picture

I cant wait for the narrative to change from don't fight the FED to don't fight the bond guys!

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 10:37 | 4758867 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Well worth the watch.  Dr. Paul Craig Roberts on the state of QE and the "tapering" that isn't.

http://investmentwatchblog.com/dr-paul-craig-roberts-fed-laundering-trea...

 

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 11:08 | 4759010 thamnosma
thamnosma's picture

The bond bubble may out live all of us.  I hope not for I so want to be around when that trade goes the other way.  That turmoil will be something to behold.

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 13:24 | 4759648 Tooter McGooter
Tooter McGooter's picture

"That turmoil will be something to behold." I was just thinking the same thing -- though, if we're just observing, it all seems quite boring. So without participating, realistic departure from societies/species prone to mania seems to be the only real thrill, for me at least. That is, unless this Great Bust can be viewed strictly as an opportunity. As long as we're stuck here (dimension-wise) then knowledge of the inevitable future of this lead balloon, however blasphemous/radical/unpatriotic/unpopular/etc it may seem, is the only power you have to potentially vault into a new reality. For now it's just *speculative, right? So investing in physical precious metals, sustainable food/energy processes, environmental integrity, artisan-style vocation -- all a bit too risky? Yea, as my ex employer might say similarly about the merits of owning gold in a portfolio: But how do I value it? Ma·ni·a [mey-nee-uh, meyn-yuh]noun; an ancient Roman goddess of the dead

Wed, 05/14/2014 - 11:16 | 4759043 elwind45
elwind45's picture

Explaining as a tool I should mention the recent Tv meme about EVERYONE DROVE YIELDS DOWN BY JUMPING FROM STOCKS earlier in the year cause of maybe? THE WEATHER see u soon at WM. What a load Tv spins!

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