Europe's "Very Disappointing" Q1 GDP In Charts

Tyler Durden's picture


Thank god for Germany, whose Q1 GDP printed at 0.8%, above the expected 0.7%, and higher than Q4's 0.4%, or else the Eurozone's very disappointing Q1 GDP, which printed at 0.2% or half the expected 0.4%, could have been flat or negative.

Here is what happened from the WSJ:

The euro zone's economy expanded at a weak pace last quarter despite a strong recovery in Germany, putting added pressure on the European Central Bank to enact fresh easing measures to prevent the region from sliding into a lengthy period of low inflation and economic stagnation.


Gross domestic product grew 0.2% in the euro zone during the first quarter compared with the final three months of 2013, the European Union's statistics agency Eurostat said Thursday, well short of the 0.4% quarterly gain expected by economists.


Last quarter's rise translates into growth of 0.8% in annualized terms, little changed from the fourth quarter. That masked a deepening divergence among the 18-member euro zone. Of the 13 euro members reporting GDP Thursday, only six expanded and some of those were small economies such as Latvia, Slovakia and Belgium.


The report "is a major disappointment, as it suggests that the euro zone is still far away from reaching the escape velocity required for a sustainable recovery," said ING economist Peter Vanden Houte, in a research note.

Naturally, the EUR got promptly hit after algos realized the EURUSD can't trade at 1.40 and have Europe grow at anything beyond stall speed.

Ironically, the strong GDP from Germany was explained by - what else - the weather. From Goldman:

Favourable weather at the beginning of the year is partly responsible for the strong first quarter reading. But even when taking this into account there can be little doubt that the underlying moment of the German economy is strong.  GDP was up 0.8%qoq (real, calendar adjusted) after +0.4%qoq in Q4 last year, a bit higher than consensus expectations of +0.7%qoq. The statistical office will release details only later this month but said in its press release that growth was driven "exclusively" by domestic demand. Private and government consumption increased, but the main driver seemed to have been investment spending (construction as well as equipment), which increased "meaningfully". Inventories also provided a positive growth contribution, while net trade was negative.

Well this is what happens when it is now ok for economists everywhere to be nothing more than constantly wrong weathermen.

Oddly enough favorable weather did not help France or Italy, the first of which came in at 0.0% below the 0.1% expected, and down from 0.2%, while Italy after briefly coming out of recession in Q4 with a positive print after constant negative GDP numbers, appears to be reentering recession after Q1 GDP came at -0.1%, below the 0.2% expected, and down from 0.1%.

Goldman was not happy:

Today's data are at odds with improving business sentiment. Business sentiment has generally improved in Q1, with the composite PMI gaining almost 2pt on the quarter (51.9 in Q1 after 50 in Q4). Similarly, the Istat survey rose by 1pt in Q1. Both surveys are now around/or above their respective long-term averages and thus indicate positive growth

Perhaps maybe someone was lying?

Anyway, here is the full breakdown in table format...

... and as a map.


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Thu, 05/15/2014 - 08:28 | 4762009 wallstreetapost...
wallstreetaposteriori's picture

Whats up with the netherlands?  

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 08:29 | 4762011 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Disappointing...but not a real shock to anyone.

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 08:40 | 4762038 MeMadMax
MeMadMax's picture

Suprised spain was in the green...

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 08:30 | 4762017 Bernoulli
Bernoulli's picture

Housing bubble popping

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 08:31 | 4762018 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture


Thu, 05/15/2014 - 08:31 | 4762019 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

They are telling the truth...ish, the rest are lying sons of bitches.

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 08:34 | 4762024 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

A 87% service economy... all they produce is cheeze...

But europe isn't that far behind because our industry is dying at a 10% rate a year since 2008...


Thu, 05/15/2014 - 08:39 | 4762035 SoilMyselfRotten
SoilMyselfRotten's picture

PM smackdown in progress, ouch

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 08:42 | 4762043 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

thank god :) I was shorting slv :)


Thu, 05/15/2014 - 09:16 | 4762161 giggler321
giggler321's picture

>>A 87% service economy... all they produce is cheeze...

Yep, government cheese at that.

I'm suprised at Belgium - after all the Fed buying of recent days through that place, should have added a few pips to their GDP


Thu, 05/15/2014 - 09:48 | 4762307 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

Haha and Belgium only produces chocolate. At least that helps against depression which explains their positive Q1.

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 08:37 | 4762030 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

Losing the weed tourism to Colorado...must be

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 08:38 | 4762031 Eyeroller
Eyeroller's picture

And Hungary?

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 08:50 | 4762073 SoilMyselfRotten
SoilMyselfRotten's picture

After touring Colorado dispensaries, of course

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 08:26 | 4762005 Kina
Kina's picture

This is as good as it gets.  It has to be downhill from here...

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 08:31 | 4762020 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Yep, these where the good 7 years after 2007... now the bad once will come...

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 08:29 | 4762012 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

There's always the line that 'sure things suck now but next quarter, the economy thrives, serfs'.....hey it's been working for 7 years.

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 08:29 | 4762014 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

remember that government spending which is out of control is added to the GDP....

imagine how it would look without it....

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 08:43 | 4762046 Bernoulli
Bernoulli's picture

True. Good point.

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 08:45 | 4762053 Unknown Poster
Unknown Poster's picture

That is why GDP is a llousy measurement.

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 08:48 | 4762063 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

well, look at it like this:


When you let kids do their own grading of their scorecards... you get a pretty optimistic number...

and when they even fail and get a F by themselves.... you just know it's bad...

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 08:57 | 4762100 Unknown Poster
Unknown Poster's picture


The government increases the vig on what people actually want, and then crows about how good it is. It make me act like your avatar

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 08:37 | 4762025 Bernoulli
Bernoulli's picture

<-- The EUROZONE is fucked

<-- The EUROZONE is fucked

As we can all see: Spain, Italy, Portugal, Cyprus and Greece are all doing great. Full recovery mode. I would totally give those governments my money. No need for interest payments.

Come on, wake up Europeans & Germans: In couple of months one or several of these above countries will exit the Euro. I'll bet a crate of beer.

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 08:40 | 4762040 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

Europe needs to be bombed again...start over.....again....have re-construction....again.....


Thu, 05/15/2014 - 09:29 | 4762202 RM Wealth Management
RM Wealth Management's picture

Not sure that the United Kingdom is in the Euro Area, as the chart suggests. The Brits still have the Pound (thank god).

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 09:35 | 4762238 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Thou shalt not lie.

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 09:41 | 4762264 Ghostdog
Ghostdog's picture


Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!