S&P 500 Breaks Below "Key" Technical Level

Tyler Durden's picture


As the Dow tumbles back into the red for 2014 and the Russell firmly into correction territory, all eyes are focused on the 'rotational support' for the S&P 500... and it appears to be faltering quickly. As BofA notes, a break below the S&P's 50-day moving average is key... and we just did. What is just as worrisome is the break of the all-supportive USDJPY one-year-trend to 2-month lows..


Quite a week...


and longer-term...


Via BofAML,

The bearish argument in US 5yr yields is under significant threat. The renewed weakness in the Russell 2000 and weakness in the S&P500 (the 50d at 1868 is KEY) say that Treasuries should continue to rally. NOW, in 5s, the trouble for bears starts on a break of 1.535% (the Apr-14 low). This would result in the first push below the 200d since May of last year and expose KEY RESISTANCE AT 1.480% (the Mar-14 low) . Below here completely invalidates the bearish argument and exposes the long-term pivot and Oct-30 low at 1.224%/1.248%.



As USDJPY breaks a key trendline...

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Thu, 05/15/2014 - 11:25 | 4762713 Eyeroller
Eyeroller's picture

FED pump algos will kick in this afternoon.

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 11:31 | 4762729 power steering
power steering's picture

.....But the Dow!

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 11:51 | 4762789 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Wake me when it breaks the 400 day DMA.

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 12:19 | 4762915 Angelo Misterioso
Angelo Misterioso's picture

totally - it breaks the 50 every couple months on ave -

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 11:34 | 4762736 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Wrong, no POMO today.  The only thing keeping this 'market' alive is free FED money.  Mark your calendars, and get short the day before any NO POMO days, and long before the 'EXTRA POMO' days.  That's all you really need to know these days.

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 11:32 | 4762717 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Here  ya go if anybody wants to mess with the chart:


Me thinks it drops to about 1850 or so and then does one last bounce to complete a "terminating rising triangle" pattern


Bonus chart!  Here's the USDJPY to mess with too:


Thu, 05/15/2014 - 11:29 | 4762722 Spungo
Spungo's picture

I'm betting more bankers will die and I'll make a killing.

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 11:42 | 4762758 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Don't you mean that the other way around?

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 11:30 | 4762723 wmbz
wmbz's picture

An MSM bobblehead just said... The markets are just taking a much needed breather! That should be obvious to any market watcher!

So there you go...An ex-spert said so.

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 11:37 | 4762744 Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

"Jonathan Hoenig of Capitalist Pig isn’t concerned. “The bull market is intact,” he insists."


Thu, 05/15/2014 - 11:30 | 4762724 Jason T
Jason T's picture

Armstrong has been hinting of a short term correction..



Thu, 05/15/2014 - 11:59 | 4762827 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Plugging you blog Marty ?

Who hasn't been calling for a corection ?

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 11:30 | 4762726 madbraz
madbraz's picture

BoFA is clueless.  5 year yields going back to 1%.

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 11:31 | 4762727 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Nothing is key. Recall the golden cross for gold.

50 day this, 200 day that... Heard it all a million times.

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 11:44 | 4762765 Glasnost
Glasnost's picture

It especially doesn't matter when the day hasn't even closed yet.  Once you get a CLOSE below the 50, things can start being said.

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 11:46 | 4762769 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Indeed, then the talks about declaring every day 'Tuesday' can begin.

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 11:31 | 4762730 oklaboy
oklaboy's picture

is it 2:30 yet? Today does have a "T" in it.

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 11:32 | 4762732 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Tyler, clearly Tepper was just being used as a mouthpiece to jawbone the market into forcing Draghi to do QE. Is this PIIG yield blowout just being manipulated to add some fuel to the fire and push him further?

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 11:39 | 4762750 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Maybe we should call this the Tepper shake out instead of the Tepper Tantrum.

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 11:44 | 4762766 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I just want to know when to buy greek bonds before Draghi drops the big rumor.

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 12:00 | 4762831 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

Probably best to stay away from that shit, altogether, my friend.

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 11:33 | 4762735 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

I think you know what this means..... buy the dip!


In related news GBP/USD bounced off its 50 day today also.

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 11:37 | 4762741 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     Meh, give me some real action like the 3% swings in the Nikkei.

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 11:37 | 4762742 The_Small_Lebowski
The_Small_Lebowski's picture

if you like your correction, you can keep your correction


Thu, 05/15/2014 - 11:42 | 4762759 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

All those funny lines don't mean Jack shit to the boys at 33 Liberty.  

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 11:44 | 4762764 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

QUICK! Someone declare it's Tuesday!

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 11:46 | 4762770 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

look at that...

markets crashing on guess what? - more fucked up economic data and lo and behold...

the phony paper price of Gold slips back under 1300.

and Silver back under 19.50...

its a miracle.....the same miracle that happerns every day at the same times..



yeah, right...

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 11:49 | 4762783 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Don't worry boys, this MiG Foxbat has PLENTY more fuel vapors left....just keep pulling the stick back harder!

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 11:53 | 4762791 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

"The bearish argument in US 5yr yields is under significant threat."

"Under threat"?  Is that all they are saying now?

I thought it was long DEAD.   The economy and stock bulls remain in DREAMLAND.

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 11:53 | 4762799 viahj
viahj's picture

meh, this doesn't bother me a bit.  if you're playing in the market.... BTFD.  ignore short term noise to shake out weak positions, run stops, etc....  go long and deep for when it "breaks" for real, no one is gonna give a shit about the "market" there will be blood and fire and/or tanks in the streets to be concerned with.  if you can squeeze out some gains to convert into PMs, ammo, preps, etc... then go for it.

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 11:55 | 4762805 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

And Yellen comes on after the close to do her two-step to bounce the markets tomorrow.


And everything's fine!!!!

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 12:21 | 4762927 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Just don't you worry about the market drop. BTFD. The DHS will handle anyone that doubts.

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 12:21 | 4762930 Tegrat
Tegrat's picture


Thu, 05/15/2014 - 12:25 | 4762951 ATG
ATG's picture

Just maybe this down market is reflecting dis-ease with what is going down in Washington, DC.

Operation American Spring offers Impeachment Relief:


Thu, 05/15/2014 - 12:31 | 4762983 WarPony
WarPony's picture

Dang, Brian Williams was sending a secret (hello-to-masons) signal to bail out of/short the markets with the newly-found footage of the Hindenburg disaster.

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 12:47 | 4763044 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture


Thu, 05/15/2014 - 14:52 | 4763555 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

Still inside the (20-day) Bollinger Bands, so it don't mean nuthing yet.

Anyway as all have said, Janet will kiss it and make it better tomorrow.

It would be *healthy* if it dipped all the way to the 200ma, and even dipped below that, but the Fed, PPT, and TPTB will not allow it, apparently.

Down is not an option, who are you going to believe, the Fed or your lyin' eyes?

Thu, 05/15/2014 - 14:57 | 4763579 Spungo
Spungo's picture

"50 day this, 200 day that... Heard it all a million times"

It's significant because a lot of people use moving averages as sell triggers. When it crosses below the moving average, at least some percentage of people will decide now is the time to take their money off the table and see what happens. Another percentage of people will buy the dip. If there are more dip buyers than cautious sellers, the price goes back up. If nobody is left to buy the dip, the cautious people drive the price down. More people decide to cash out. It crosses the 100 day, then 200 day. More and more people cash out. Without leverage, you get a bear market. With record high margin debt, we'll probably see a gigantic crash when margin calls begin.

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