The Indian Election Is Over: The Full Summary

Tyler Durden's picture

Didn't follow tonight's historic election in India (which caused the local market to surge as much as 6.2% at one time hitting an all time high) which has left the nation with a "general feeling of euphoria"? Then this full recap of what just happened, courtesy of Bloomberg, is for you.

  • Congress party President Sonia Gandhi concedes defeat after coalition led by Narendra Modi’s opposition Bharatiya Janata Party sweeps Indian election.
  • BJP bloc leads in 335 seats and Congress-led bloc in 59, according to NDTV tally of count as of 4:39 p.m. in Mumbai.
  • BJP alone set to cross majority mark of 272 seats from 543 up for grabs: Election Commission data
  • “India has won,” Modi says on Twitter
  • BJP poised for biggest victory for any single Indian party in 30 years on pledge to revive growth, improve governance
  • Congress heading for wost-ever performance after graft scandals, economic slowdown, elevated inflation


  • BJP, allies leading in 335 seats
  • Congress, allies: 59
  • BJP alone: 285
  • Congress alone: 46
  • Modi wins Vadodara, Varanasi seats: NDTV
  • Congress party VP Rahul Gandhi in close contest in Amethi


  • Rupee strengthens 0.5% to 58.975 per dollar as of 4:40 p.m. in Mumbai after rising to 11-month high; Sensex closes up 0.9% at record, paring earlier surge of 6.2%, which was most in five yrs; 10-year govt bond yield rises to 8.83% from 8.78% yday
  • RBI is in the market to check the rupee’s gains, according to four dealers who declined to be identified because the information isn’t public
  • “Will be selective about what to buy, given the excitement we have in Indian markets,” Adrian Lim, senior investment manager at Aberdeen Asset Management Asia, says in interview to Bloomberg TV India
  • “General feeling of euphoria” on hopes of foreign inflows, says Killol Pandya, Mumbai-based senior debt fund manager at LIC Nomura Mutual Fund, adding “issues such as inflation remain”
  • Pandya says breach of 8.735% for the 10-year yield is critical based on technical patterns, and that “yield trajectory may see a steep fall if 8.65% is breached”


  • NDTV-Hansa Research: BJP, allies to win 279 seats; Congress bloc 103; others 161
  • India Today-Cicero: BJP bloc to get 261-283 seats; Congress bloc to get 110-120 seats; other parties to win 150-162
  • Bloomberg TV India-CVoter: BJP bloc to get 289 seats;  Congress bloc to get 101 seats; other parties to win 153
  • Today’s Chanakya: BJP bloc to win 340 seats; Congress-led alliance seen winning 70; other parties 133
  • ABP News-Nielsen: BJP grouping to win 281 seats; Congress alliance seen getting 97 seats; others 161; Aam Aadmi Party to win 4 seats; surveyed 183,623 voters
  • CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS: BJP alliance to win 274 to 286 seats; Congress and allies may get 92 to 102 seats



Goldman Sachs

  • Simple majority would ensure stable govt over 5-yr term with room for “meaningful” economic policy overhaul; 3-mo. USD/INR target 58.5 per dollar; long-tenor bonds to rally


  • If BJP bloc wins less than 200 seats: unclear mandate would cause “knee-jerk” rupee drop to 63.31 per dollar; 10-yr govt bond yield may rise to 9.10%
  • BJP bloc wins 200-230 seats: uncertain mandate would  cause rupee drop past 61; 10-yr govt bond yield rises to 8.80%-9.10%
  • BJP bloc wins 230-255 seats: probability that this alliance would form govt would cause “modest” rupee appreciation; 10-yr govt bond yield to stay between 8.60%-8.75%
  • BJP bloc wins 255-280 seats: comfortable mandate would cause rupee gain toward 59, USD/INR risk reversals to drop; 10-yr govt bond yield falls toward 8.55%; high probability that S&P will raise outlook on India sovereign rating to ‘stable’ from ‘negative’
  • BJP bloc wins more than 280 seats: Very strong mandate would cause rupee gain toward 58; 10-yr govt bond yield falls toward 8.55%; High probability that S&P will raise outlook on India sovereign rating to ‘stable’ from ‘negative’

Espirito Santo

  • “Cautiously optimistic” on post-exit poll exuberance; positive election outcome could further spur business confidence and market “ahead of fundamentals”
  • Base scenario: 5.4% FY15 GDP growth, a “mild” rupee appreciation to 58.00 per dollar in 3-6 mo., higher interest rates “for longer”
  • In “extremely positive” scenario: 10% rupee appreciation in 12 mo.


  • Modi Set to Rule as BJP Bet on One-Man Campaign Pays Off
  • Indians Expect Modi to Be an Economic Superman
  • Meet the Man Who Has the Hardest Job in Economics
  • Modi Calls for India Unity as Exit Polls Signal He’ll Win
  • Stocks Rise to Record as Polls Show Modi Win; Rupee Gains
  • Wives Revolt as Free Election Booze Leaves Trail of Widows
  • Escalating Reliance, Vodafone Spats Await Next Government
  • Torched India Shop Shows Riot Risk as Muslims Wary of Modi
  • Is India’s E-Voting a Turn for the Better?
  • Modi In-Laws Laud Acceptance of Teen Bride After Decades
  • Modi Says His Economic Priority Would Be Job Creation
  • Bridge Unbuilt Shows Gandhi Family’s Fading Promise
  • Adani’s $4.1 Billion Wealth Surge Fuels Modi Attacks
  • Indian Women Ignoring Their Husbands as Voting Power Rises
  • Rajan Must Be Respected by Incoming Government: Chidambaram
  • Modi Mutiny Risk Looms as Top BJP Woman Muted in India Vote
  • Next Govt Will Need Credible Deficit-Cut Plan: RBI Adviser
  • Lawyer Seen as India Finance Chief Woos Punjab in First Poll
  • Rajan Job Safe If Modi Wins India Polls, BJP Treasurer Says
  • Indians Abroad Eye Election Role as Rape Hits Nation’s Image
  • Modi Targets Urban Voters Who Stayed Home in India Poll Push
  • Trader Abandons Congress for BJP as Modi Spurs Sensex Gain
  • Goats-for-Votes Pose India Deficit Risk as Poor Lack Toilets
  • Gandhi Says He’s Ready to Be India Prime Minister: CNBC
  • Three Female Kingmakers Hold Key to Modi’s India Power Bid
  • Election Panel Asks Media to Stop Publishing Opinion Polls
  • Deadly Squalor May Spell Victory for Hindu Nationalists
  • Modi’s 72-Hour Tata Coup Shows States Key to India Revival
  • Modi Doesn’t Need to Apologize for Anti-Muslim Riots: BJP
  • India Upstart Tries to Destroy Modi Momentum in Ganges Clash
  • Hindu Campaigners Backing Modi Risk Spooking India Allies
  • Rupee Gains of 35% Seen in Decisive Victory for Modi

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BandGap's picture

When the shit hits the blades they can blame the last party in power. Same thing will happen here in 6 months.

whatsinaname's picture

Modi is good and his strength is that he surrounded himself with good people in his home state of Gujarat. Good policy means you have to have good advisers even if the leader is average - that amounts to good leadership. Aka Jesse Ventura as I have heard about Minnesota.

Hopefully it bodes well for India (not so much for the Italians).


g'kar's picture

Great post (link). The symptoms are all the same in just about any country. International statist globaloney.

Oh regional Indian's picture

Thanks g'kar. It's what I imagined, same shit everywhere.

Fascinating to watch a mesmerised global population march off the cliff on command...

CPL's picture

It's like a rot everywhere...anycase some good news.

The QEG is working btw with field testers and builders reporting back.  Design improvements coming in daily now, new beta expected in the summer and design refinements so it doesn't require an electricial engineer to build one.


For those that don't know what that is, that's a fuelless generator (Hendershot engine as an example).  Catches ionic energy like a dream catcher catches dreams then turns it into DC power.  It's a little on the low end of the horse power fence right now though but with the amount of basement hackers and under employeed engineers right now it's making for some great design improvements happening. 

Game On.  :) 

For those that would like to build one, here's the plans, in every language.

It is open source and completely free to build under the open source license, methods and ISO process is all there, legal docs, everything. 

For those that have a pile of electronic junk and just want to tinker with the concept of a fuelless generator over a weekend.  The hendershot engine is cheaper than a solar panel and provides more output (900w-1300w) plus it makes a great addition to a garage hackers lab.  There's an itemized checklist of parts needed and the video presents the entire manufacturing from plank to power generation in three hours.


HardAssets's picture

Oh regional Indian:  "Fascinating to watch a mesmerised global population march off the cliff on command... "


Speaking of walking off of cliffs . . . . .


Indian_Goldsmith's picture

Vivek, reading your thoughts pouring out unimpeded by convention, you seem to be my soul brother! I wish i could discuss with you so much i think about! Its like you're writing my chains of thoughts down on your blog!

Oh regional Indian's picture

Then get in touch Bro. We've got stuff to make happen here. Check out my profile for contact.

Alethian's picture

Upvote for you simply because your name is g'kar.

HardAssets's picture

Latina Lover:  "Bullish for Gold"


Why ?

I don't know anything about Indian politics. I know the people got shafted when the government took actions to reduce the Indian peoples' purchase of gold. Are the new guys better in that regard ?

Any info on this from you or people who know India would be appreciated.

JPMorgan's picture

Looks like he is pro gold.

It may well be goodbye to gold import restrictions for India with this guy at the helm.

what's that smell's picture

pro business?

do you mean economic shock therapy, austerity, deregulation, and privatization?

hey speculators and jackals! india's ass is wide open! get to work!

smells like victory.

Oh regional Indian's picture

You got it wts!

Nailed it....

We cheer all the wrong shit.... :-)

Weird world...


HardAssets's picture

@Oh regional Indian - what's your take on the Indian election results please ?


Oh regional Indian's picture

My "heart" take is in the link above HA.

From a business perspective:

1) Make it far easier for Foreign Corps to operate/rape in India with this gov (except retail, unless a big switchroo is planned from the stated BJP perspective).

2) The next phase of "Civilization" is going to be thrust down India's throat. Lot's more civil works (they have to pump infra, always, the bridges to nowhere and th eendlessly rebuilt roads).

3) Debt driven consumer spending is intended to be pushed through the roof. Auto loans are currently at 12-24% depending on your score. Still a long way to fall. Savings rates are still high (5-8% is common). Long way to fall.

4) MArket is at 24,000 ish. The Sensex 36,000 meme has been broad-cast for a long time. They can do it if they keep the rupee weak-ish.

5) Rupee will stay rangebound until we are pushed into net-import status like the rest of the developed world. Then the Rupee will strengthen, but that is probably not till the next election cycle at least.

6) Expect to see a lot more Indian tourists in your neighbourhoood. Chepa air and Cruise ships on bill boards everywhere.

7) The westernization of India will proceed apace, thus making it a more predictablle market for global culture produced wares and content.

8) Service economy push. Continues. Now ITES companies are focusing on India, trying to lower the export dependence on a declining west.

9) The boom in franchise retail. It is THE Indian dream. More outlets for cheap chinese shit. Indian mfg will also need to shift to supply local over decades of export dependence.

The homogenization of diversity...


N2OJoe's picture

So Debt Slavery, PM oppression, and Oligarchy.

Why are so many Indians coming here (USA)?

To preview their future???

Oh regional Indian's picture

Just blinded by the light N20. God Truth and Right, don't you know!


unicorn's picture

cant resist to post this one
(blinded by the light, manfred mann;)

HardAssets's picture

@Oh regional Indian - - - thank you for your thoughtful commentary on this article.

Its appreciated

Quinvarius's picture

BJP loves the gold.

Tabarnaque's picture

Yep, look at import taxes and restrictions to be lifted.

Dubaibanker's picture

The main reason, India's current account deficit increased in the past 4 years was because of oil and gold imports. Gold imports were almost banned in March 2013 by hiking import duties to 10%. Gold imports promptly plummeted since then. However, that was insufficient because gold trade went 'black' and hence under the table.

With pressure mounting, the USDINR plunged in Aug 2013 to a historic low of 69. After which the Govt promptly banned purchase of overseas property by Resident Indians, hiked duties to 35% on TV imports which were free upto INR 25k/USD 400 but now all sizes are charged 35%. Gold duties have yet to be reduced and mostly will not be reduced despite the Gujaratis (from which state Modi hails) are goldsmiths and gold wholsesalers/retailers.

Just looking at the oil subsidy bill of India gives one the shivers. From USD 3bn in 2010 they have risen to USD 14bn in 2013 and were as high as USD 16bn in 2012. This was all politics to keep the prices for the public lower.

Now with the new Govt, if they reduce subsidies they will be damned, and if they dont they will be damned.

Just yesterday, 5,000 people were laid off by Nokia in their largest plant around the world. Thanks to the two massive tax cases against them. Look at the history, plant started in 2005, operational in 2006, peaked at 8,000 employees in 2010 and became the biggest Nokia factory in the world, and since then reduced employees to 6,500, was not part of Microsoft deal due to two pending tax caes and in 2014, 5,000 employees have been let go and plant is at closure stages. From 2006 to 2014, in 8 short years, India was able to throw out one of the largest mobile phone factories out of India!

Meanwhile, 4 days ago, CEO of Indian subsidiary of Leighton Holdings (Aussie contracting giant) was arrested for a business dispute case and put in jail. It is completely absurd to put a CEO in jail for a contractual dispute, but this is what happens in India.

While just last month, Wal-mart had to pay close to USD 400m to exit India. Yes, thats right, at a time, American giants need to expand, they are paying break up fees to get out of India.

While India's total external debt keeps rising and has more than doubled since 2007.

And its 10 year yield remains above 8.5% since July 2013 which indicates its persistent inability to raise funds cheaply.

Religious riots are just getting started in India. Yesterday was in Hyderabad.

5 days ago was in Maharashtra.

and 13 days ago was in North East India in Assam:

All of the riots are third page news...which have happened just in May 2014, pre elections. 

And now last week, RBI, has banned bringing foreign loans into India to repay/replace INR debt or for infra projects.

And all this is at a time when large corporates are not paying back their loans like Kingfisher and Sahara Group and last week, a major loan by Winsome Diamonds of USD 1bn was declared a 'wilful defaulter' i.e. cheating.

A billionaire has been in jail for over 2 months who owns NY Plaza hotel and Grosvenor hotel London.

Another billionaire is also about to go to jail for bounced cheques and non payment and a bankrupt airline.

Another billionaire is in jail along with his wife and son for a scandal of over USD 5bn.

And this is just the beginning.....

A very warm welcome to Modi to handle all this.

Having a stable Govt is a positive, but economically many negatives still remain. Passing laws dating back to 1894 i s not going to be easy while infra, power and roads cannot be built in just 1-2 years.,_1894

Lets hope some laws can be changed so the crime issues can be brought under control with economic expansion and more jobs.

Ulf Murphy's picture

What a great post.  I hardly ever log in to comment, but this one is worth it.  I may lose half my work day reading your links, but off-the-cuff, it sounds like the cradle of civilization knows more about dealing with cheaters than the rest of the world since, royaltyrobber barons, lucky sperm club members, billionaires don't go to jail in the "first" world,

CPL's picture

India has been around a really, really long time and have kept lots of records on practically every subject.  So history repeats a bit over a 'really, really, long time' and those records would point out that it has happened before and it will happen again. There's even a word for it: Samsara

Oh regional Indian's picture

True CPL, ancient. But I feel it is now long in the tooth. Yoga and the texts are now much more "available" and relateble in English that in any Indian language treatment.

Just think of that for a moment and how it radically changes the state of a nation.

Like when th eBible wet from Latin to English....hard down, all the  way....


CPL's picture

Items getting lost in translation is usually a symptom of external influence and how language shifts and changes in a society over time.  Most importantly who controls the message, how it's framed and the bias of the reader. 

Example; I'm pretty sure most people have been CC'ed in an email chain at least once that has moved from the "reasonable question" category to a flame war because of misinterpretation of something.   I've literally watched a quick comment about "it being nice outside, we should do a BBQ at lunch" turn into a shit flinging contest by the 40th reply.  That's all in the same language as well.  It doesn't just take something getting lost in translation, it can also be caused by someone being a jackass in general.

Now imagine the challenges of attempting to move something as complex as Telgu to Hindi to English.  Each step in the translation shaves a piece off here and there, changes the shape and intention of the written word, that's all without external religious or political influence.  The bible as an example of version control management,  the bible is literally thousands of books after 2000 years.  Each church and faith has it's own edits, changes, moral framing for the business operational stuff.

In IT we would classify it under version control system management, all the branches from the main code trunk.  Once all the various branches are working well, then they consolidate back to the trunk and a final release of 'project Banana' is offered. It gets sent to the product manager after that and shipped.

The bible however has one subtle difference in terms of version control.  None of the various stakeholders of each of the bible 'branches' from the trunk will ever commit the change back to the main project because the project heads of those groups would individually lose the command of their 'projects'.  While it provides a more tailored faith for the individual, it will continue to fracture over time getting narrower and narrower because there is no mechanism to commit a change to the main trunk and in turn sent to a 'product manager'.

OTMPut's picture

India is a recent British experiment. Sure that land mass has been around for a long time. But there is no such thing as an Indian culture.
That whole myth is creation to make things easy for the Western world ( perhaps a bit like "European" but in an even more extreme sense).

Oh regional Indian's picture

Yes, ,India like Europe is a myth if "united" probably thriving and peaceful if divided back on linguistic lines.

Dubaibanker's picture

Thanks for your comment, @Ulf Murphy. Much appreciated.

You have to see how the previous Congress Govt which has ruled India for well over 55 years out of the 67 years since Independence and has a major clout, thanks to cronyism, corruption and what information they have on all senior bureaucrats.

Riots is just one thing.

Influencing court judges to prosecute businessmen and create hurdles is another.

Inflation is the third. Price of diesel was incresed just 3 days ago by just over 2%.

Look at the audacity, just today the Chairman of the Railway board in India, who was appointed and placed by Congress in Oct 2013, hiked railway fares, outside of the budget, by a massive 14%.

Exports of India have been plunging along with domestic car sales that are are running at over 2 year lows and declining every passing month. 

After fighting over a diplomatic case with US last Dec, India is paying the price by having its airlines downgraded in safety ratings in Jan and then 3 major drug companies getting banned for US exports in Feb 2014. In April 2014, EU banned 5 vegetables from India due to pesticides and last week Saudi banned Chillies. While veggies are very small component but it shows a dangerous trend where Indian veggies, airlines and drugs etc may not be accepted outside of India. Following the US ban, Vietnam banned Indian medicines while Singapore asked Indian airlines for additional checks just like Germany and US, which raises costs and reduces efficiency.

1 large drug company banned in US:

2nd one here:

Indian Airlines' international safety rating downgrade here:

Vietnam drug ban here:

Saudi Chillies ban here:

Mango and 4 veggie ban of Indian exports.

Look at hotel room rates, they are plunging because business tourism and regular tourism has been decimated over the last 2-3 years due to crime, pollution and lack of infra etc.

Billionaires may be going to jail but that's just because they were never real billionaires but just bank debt laden and fake and corrupt billionaires, probably just like Madoff or Allen Sanford.

Govt or without a Govt, India is on a downhill spree and no billionaire or majority Govt can turn the Indian elephant around quickly enough because the Indian growth story was due to global GDP and rising exports, both of which are declining when every country is trying to survive and create more jobs and start domestic factories instead of importing stuff.

S&P just spoke and said that next 2-3 months and policy reforms are very crucial. I doubt anything can be acheived in 2-3 months what India could not do in the past 5 years.

Except for Pakistan, Ukraine, Venezuela and Brazil and lately Russia aside from Nigeria and Kenya are the only countries above India in terms of 10 year yields, this is not a good sign at all, because all of them are rated B or BB levels. And Russia was just downgraded.

Dr. Engali's picture

Bullish for moar outsourcing. BTFD.

Jayda1850's picture

If India and China ever got their shit together, they would be dangerous. With nearly 40% of the world's population, they could make the past 1000 yrs of eurocentric history a mere footnote. The problem is its damn near impossible to govern that many people without decentralization, but it is extremely easy to profit off them.

Tabarnaque's picture

Look at the BRICS cooperation to accelerate. Modi was on the USSA black list for over a decade because of his alledge involvment in anti-muslim violence. So I doubt that Modi is very warm with the fascist power in WDC. Look at the cooperation between the BRICS to go on overdrive.

eucalyptus's picture

Increased Bear and Tiger cooperation on military and economic issues.

Bear, Tiger, and Dragon looks to drop dollar for tri-lateral trade settlements. 

Jayda1850's picture

+1 Add to that India's central bank chairman has been a very open critic of the Fed and QE. You gotta believe all the BRIC countries are pissed about getting the double wammy of Fed exported inflation and the volatility in their own markets created by QE. Pressure is definitely building.

Tabarnaque's picture

According to the GOlden Jack Ass, there are now over 80 countries involved at various degree with the BRICS. And these are the emerging industrial/manufacturing powerhouses of the world.

old naughty's picture

Ah, such dream.

Who coined the word BRICS?

tony wilson's picture

mumbai massacre was mi6,mossad and cia.

hundreds of girls kidnapped in nigeria,bombs going off today in kenya.

tensions betwixt paki and but but indian.

my dear boy things would be much better without all this operation gladio satanic shit.

these things are not organic but nearly always scottish rite masonic and

outside rothschild force is

edb5s's picture

Key takeaway - we have a FX trade reco from Goldman

laomei's picture

lol, india... it's only going to get worse.  

AccreditedEYE's picture

Too funny... there is not 1 single bull story on CNBS. These clowns try and manipulate sentiment so obviously. My take is buy the dip. at some point, every hedge fund will be looking to do the same. Don't get sucked into the trap. Remember Tepper's 13F...all these fuckers are liars and theives.

Dr. Engali's picture

You mean yesterday's controlled sell off didn't freak you out and make you sell your positions to wall street? You must be some kind of terrorist.

economists_do_it_with_models's picture

"You'll never guess who I voted for this morning -- none of the above." -- from "Brewser's Millions"

eucalyptus's picture

Long Gold

Short Muslims (in india).


whatsinaname's picture

The Muslims' greatest enemy in India is themselves. Some of the progressive ones have done well with good education and healthy family size but a vast majority falls into the big family, poor education trap very easily. Why is that Muslims from Pakistan, Bangladesh all want to come to India for work ?

tony wilson's picture

the muslims greatest enemy in india is certain folks in the city of london,washington and isra hell.


fixed it for ya gladio

katchum's picture

Now lift that gold tax please...

Ignatius's picture

The results aren't official until Kerry and NATO recognize them as such.