The Indian Election Is Over: The Full Summary

Tyler Durden's picture

Didn't follow tonight's historic election in India (which caused the local market to surge as much as 6.2% at one time hitting an all time high) which has left the nation with a "general feeling of euphoria"? Then this full recap of what just happened, courtesy of Bloomberg, is for you.

  • Congress party President Sonia Gandhi concedes defeat after coalition led by Narendra Modi’s opposition Bharatiya Janata Party sweeps Indian election.
  • BJP bloc leads in 335 seats and Congress-led bloc in 59, according to NDTV tally of count as of 4:39 p.m. in Mumbai.
  • BJP alone set to cross majority mark of 272 seats from 543 up for grabs: Election Commission data
  • “India has won,” Modi says on Twitter
  • BJP poised for biggest victory for any single Indian party in 30 years on pledge to revive growth, improve governance
  • Congress heading for wost-ever performance after graft scandals, economic slowdown, elevated inflation

TALLY

  • BJP, allies leading in 335 seats
  • Congress, allies: 59
  • BJP alone: 285
  • Congress alone: 46
  • Modi wins Vadodara, Varanasi seats: NDTV
  • Congress party VP Rahul Gandhi in close contest in Amethi

MARKETS

  • Rupee strengthens 0.5% to 58.975 per dollar as of 4:40 p.m. in Mumbai after rising to 11-month high; Sensex closes up 0.9% at record, paring earlier surge of 6.2%, which was most in five yrs; 10-year govt bond yield rises to 8.83% from 8.78% yday
  • RBI is in the market to check the rupee’s gains, according to four dealers who declined to be identified because the information isn’t public
  • “Will be selective about what to buy, given the excitement we have in Indian markets,” Adrian Lim, senior investment manager at Aberdeen Asset Management Asia, says in interview to Bloomberg TV India
  • “General feeling of euphoria” on hopes of foreign inflows, says Killol Pandya, Mumbai-based senior debt fund manager at LIC Nomura Mutual Fund, adding “issues such as inflation remain”
  • Pandya says breach of 8.735% for the 10-year yield is critical based on technical patterns, and that “yield trajectory may see a steep fall if 8.65% is breached”

EXIT POLLS

  • NDTV-Hansa Research: BJP, allies to win 279 seats; Congress bloc 103; others 161
  • India Today-Cicero: BJP bloc to get 261-283 seats; Congress bloc to get 110-120 seats; other parties to win 150-162
  • Bloomberg TV India-CVoter: BJP bloc to get 289 seats;  Congress bloc to get 101 seats; other parties to win 153
  • Today’s Chanakya: BJP bloc to win 340 seats; Congress-led alliance seen winning 70; other parties 133
  • ABP News-Nielsen: BJP grouping to win 281 seats; Congress alliance seen getting 97 seats; others 161; Aam Aadmi Party to win 4 seats; surveyed 183,623 voters
  • CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS: BJP alliance to win 274 to 286 seats; Congress and allies may get 92 to 102 seats

BLOOMBERG EXCLUSIVES

ELECTION & MARKETS

Goldman Sachs

  • Simple majority would ensure stable govt over 5-yr term with room for “meaningful” economic policy overhaul; 3-mo. USD/INR target 58.5 per dollar; long-tenor bonds to rally

Barclays

  • If BJP bloc wins less than 200 seats: unclear mandate would cause “knee-jerk” rupee drop to 63.31 per dollar; 10-yr govt bond yield may rise to 9.10%
  • BJP bloc wins 200-230 seats: uncertain mandate would  cause rupee drop past 61; 10-yr govt bond yield rises to 8.80%-9.10%
  • BJP bloc wins 230-255 seats: probability that this alliance would form govt would cause “modest” rupee appreciation; 10-yr govt bond yield to stay between 8.60%-8.75%
  • BJP bloc wins 255-280 seats: comfortable mandate would cause rupee gain toward 59, USD/INR risk reversals to drop; 10-yr govt bond yield falls toward 8.55%; high probability that S&P will raise outlook on India sovereign rating to ‘stable’ from ‘negative’
  • BJP bloc wins more than 280 seats: Very strong mandate would cause rupee gain toward 58; 10-yr govt bond yield falls toward 8.55%; High probability that S&P will raise outlook on India sovereign rating to ‘stable’ from ‘negative’

Espirito Santo

  • “Cautiously optimistic” on post-exit poll exuberance; positive election outcome could further spur business confidence and market “ahead of fundamentals”
  • Base scenario: 5.4% FY15 GDP growth, a “mild” rupee appreciation to 58.00 per dollar in 3-6 mo., higher interest rates “for longer”
  • In “extremely positive” scenario: 10% rupee appreciation in 12 mo.

EARLIER STORIES

  • Modi Set to Rule as BJP Bet on One-Man Campaign Pays Off
  • Indians Expect Modi to Be an Economic Superman
  • Meet the Man Who Has the Hardest Job in Economics
  • Modi Calls for India Unity as Exit Polls Signal He’ll Win
  • Stocks Rise to Record as Polls Show Modi Win; Rupee Gains
  • Wives Revolt as Free Election Booze Leaves Trail of Widows
  • Escalating Reliance, Vodafone Spats Await Next Government
  • Torched India Shop Shows Riot Risk as Muslims Wary of Modi
  • Is India’s E-Voting a Turn for the Better?
  • Modi In-Laws Laud Acceptance of Teen Bride After Decades
  • Modi Says His Economic Priority Would Be Job Creation
  • Bridge Unbuilt Shows Gandhi Family’s Fading Promise
  • Adani’s $4.1 Billion Wealth Surge Fuels Modi Attacks
  • Indian Women Ignoring Their Husbands as Voting Power Rises
  • Rajan Must Be Respected by Incoming Government: Chidambaram
  • Modi Mutiny Risk Looms as Top BJP Woman Muted in India Vote
  • Next Govt Will Need Credible Deficit-Cut Plan: RBI Adviser
  • Lawyer Seen as India Finance Chief Woos Punjab in First Poll
  • Rajan Job Safe If Modi Wins India Polls, BJP Treasurer Says
  • Indians Abroad Eye Election Role as Rape Hits Nation’s Image
  • Modi Targets Urban Voters Who Stayed Home in India Poll Push
  • Trader Abandons Congress for BJP as Modi Spurs Sensex Gain
  • Goats-for-Votes Pose India Deficit Risk as Poor Lack Toilets
  • Gandhi Says He’s Ready to Be India Prime Minister: CNBC
  • Three Female Kingmakers Hold Key to Modi’s India Power Bid
  • Election Panel Asks Media to Stop Publishing Opinion Polls
  • Deadly Squalor May Spell Victory for Hindu Nationalists
  • Modi’s 72-Hour Tata Coup Shows States Key to India Revival
  • Modi Doesn’t Need to Apologize for Anti-Muslim Riots: BJP
  • India Upstart Tries to Destroy Modi Momentum in Ganges Clash
  • Hindu Campaigners Backing Modi Risk Spooking India Allies
  • Rupee Gains of 35% Seen in Decisive Victory for Modi