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Mapping The "Scalpel, Not A Meat Axe" Approach To US Sectoral Sanctions Against Russia
The threat of "sectoral" sanctions is the latest arrow in America's quiver against Russia's unwillingness to back off and, as the FT reports, the US is seeking support from Europe for these efforts. The problem, as we have discussed, is that energy binds Russia to the rest of the world in a codependent relationship. Consumers – especially in Europe – need Russian oil and gas as much as Russia needs the revenue they bring in. The US believes it can circumvent that obstacle as "the situation calls for a scalpel, not a meat axe... we need targeted asymmetric sanctions that hurt them more than they hurt us."
As The FT explains, the plan is to block exports of oil and gas technology only for new projects run by state-controlled companies, with the objective of casting the long-term future of Russia’s energy industry into doubt, while safeguarding its short-term contribution to global fuel supplies. In other words, do you believe in miracles?
As the US looks for levers to exert influence over Russia, energy is an obvious choice. Oil and gas generate more than 50 per cent of Russian federal government revenues, and Rosneft and Gazprom, the country’s two largest energy companies, are both state controlled.
The problem is that energy binds Russia to the rest of the world in a codependent relationship. Consumers – especially in Europe – need Russian oil and gas as much as Russia needs the revenue they bring in.
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The energy sanctions being proposed by the US are intended to circumvent that obstacle.
The plan is to block exports of oil and gas technology only for new projects run by state-controlled companies, with the objective of casting the long-term future of Russia’s energy industry into doubt, while safeguarding its short-term contribution to global fuel supplies.
“This situation calls for a scalpel, not a meat axe,” says Robin West of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “We need targeted asymmetric sanctions that hurt them more than they hurt us.”
By allowing continued exports of oil and gas equipment and services to Russia’s existing oil and gasfields, the proposed sanctions should make very little difference to the country’s energy exports.
...
However, blocking exports of equipment and services for new projects could have a “very meaningful impact on Moscow”, according to Jason Bordoff of Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy.
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The sanctions would not send Russia’s oil and gas production into an immediate slump, but over time the natural decline of existing fields would depress the country’s output.
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The uncertainty over Russia’s long-term prospects in oil and gas would probably also depress the share prices of Rosneft and Gazprom.
Which all sounds great in practice. But do they really think Putin will stand for this? And will the Europeans agree?
The US is seeking support from European countries for its plan, but that may not be necessary.
The tricky question will be what to do if the Ukraine crisis drags on. As time passes and the effect on Russia’s output grows, the strains on world energy markets will become more noticeable, potentially driving up prices for oil and gas.
As Mr Bordoff warns/concludes:
“In a global economy, each of these actions may also come at a cost to the countries imposing the sanctions that needs to be considered.”
Sure - what could go wrong?
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Don't shoot or the negro gets it.
usa sanctions:
see man who castrates himself after catching wife in bed with son.
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=82c_1398825991
"However, blocking exports of equipment and services for new projects could have a “very meaningful impact on Moscow”, according to Jason Bordoff of Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy."
Yup... Russia will never in a million years be able to figure out how to get oil out of the ground without us.
Nuclear weapons and space stations yes... reverse engineeing valves and pipes and drills for oil and gas? Not a chance because they would have to violate some patents.
Barry and his brainy crew are simply BRILLIANT!
Putin lovers will love this:
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/article/article_xinhua.aspx?id=218641
That is called recruitement
I say shoot.
Pull. The. Fucking. Trigger. Now ........please.
"what difference does it make!"
Hillarity Clinton
Dude....just give us this one. Would you please stop talking about that video.
And oh, the Chinese can't figure out how to manufacture that technology?
What a bunch of zeros we have...
>0.
Yes. This is exclusive copyrighted information developed in kenya and brought to the US by what's his name.
If their brains were dynamite, they wouldn't be able to blow their hats off.
Not bad, Banzai.
PetroChina and Sinopec would certainly be delighted to fill in for Exxon and BP, but they won't develop the technology.
They'll just hire it. If you work for Exxon and your job was to be up in the Kara Sea of Russia, and it gets stopped then so does your job. Then the phone rings from China.
And you're gonna say no thanks? I don't want a pay raise?
This is the profound reality of oil. It's not classified information. You can hire any expertise you need.
And btw, Obama, what leads you to conclude that the price of oil won't react if you tell the world you're cutting off Russia's future oil flow. Oh I know you are going to say it's okay now, but the future flow will decline. You conclude somehow oil's price doesn't care about future supply?
Oh, and btw, let's keep in mind that when an Obama action harms US oil companies, it's harming Republican funding more than Democrat. You can bet staffers are looking at how they can take a sledgehammer to Dallas HQ'ed Exxon Mobil.
Chine are fastest copiers anywhere...
I bet if the US were physically situated where the EU is, it wouldn't be such a brave bully!
If Israel weren't so determined to pipe their gas to Europe, they wouldn't pushing their bully, the DC US, so hard.
I think that that is a bit clearer.
Yeah, Russia! Back off. What business do you have interfering with a color revolution on your doorstep?
The USA has to "back off"
Take your graphics and maps and shove them up your monger hole
Take a look at how many miles between the Ukraine border and Moscow. Really, WHAT are you thinking?
Oh yes, this ought to end very well.
John Kerry on Syria... Russia
Notice how the argument has moved to 'what should the sanctions be?' rather than the thoroughly defensible 'what in the fuck are we doing sanctioning Russia when it was the US/NATO block that destabilized Ukraine at Russia's doorstep'??
Imposing "surgical sanctions" is like only raping someone a little bit. It's a declaration of war by other means and will be treated as such. I'm sure the imperialist pricks at the CSIS have gamed this all the way to war. The real question is: do they hope it will stop short of war, or is causing war the actual intent?
did 3:30 come at 2:30 today?
In three words...
"Greedy" "Deranged" "Yids"!
Lol, are they really that stupid in Washington. So Gazprom will buy equipment for existing fields, but use them on new projects. Gee, problem solved. Your next brilliant idea.
Stoopid Empire Banksters.
How have the sanctions worked so far?
Blocking equipment and services will really help.
Until they use their own equipment and services.
If Russians can build rockets,
Then they can build drilling rigs.
26 years of sanctions worked against Rhodesia of course.
"the situation calls for a scalpel, not a meat axe... we need targeted asymmetric sanctions that hurt them more than they hurt us."...
And when you attempt that one and fail... By all means take an axe (to these two) first and then with whatever is leftover after you've sufficiently bludgeoned them to a bloody pulp have a "field day" with that "scalpel"
If anyone works for the NSA and your leadership talks like this, just how the fuck do you live with yourselves?
P.S.
If anyone finds the adjoining video or periodical of both of them making these statements let us know.
Chuck Norris is wary of only one man - Vladimir Putin.
lets hope nobody tells the Russians about the Sherman Anti Trust Act or the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act or the RICO Act , they might apply them to our own US govt officials in our own courts. (that would suck).
Imagine high public officials prosecuted for high crimes NOT by international courts but our own civil and criminal courts.
You know there is mountains of proof in triplicate too.
Don't these people have anything better to do?
Jeezus, people in what used to be a part of Russia feared those who had overthrown the elected government by "force and violence" so they voted to ask Russia to take them back. Russia said, "OK."
Case should be closed.
.
"The uncertainty over Russia’s long-term prospects in oil and gas would probably also depress the share prices of Rosneft and Gazprom.
Which all sounds great in practice..."
But only if you are a Yankee terrorist prick.