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UMich Confidence Tumbles, Misses By Most In 8 Years
After April's confidence-inspiring reflexive rebound (thanks to hope for the future more than current perceptions) back near post-crisis highs, it seems the less-than-frigid-weather and record-er highs in stocks were not enough to maintain the status quo enhancing exuberance. UMich confidence dropped and missed expectations by the most since June 2006. Maybe its fears of El Nino? Maybe its concerns at the bond market signals? Or maybe - the reality is that the average joe is not as cock-a-hoop as the man-on-the-TV says he should be. Economic conditions dropped to their lowest since November. Higher highs in stocks and lower highs in confidence - not what the Fed wants.
Of course - as we have noted previously - - confidence is the key number for continued exuberance in hope-fueled multiple-expansion...
But, it's all about confidence... investors will not be willing to pay increasing multiples unless they are confident that the future streams of earnings are sustainable and forecastable... And simply put, the current levels of Consumer Sentiment need to almost double for the US equity market to approach historical multiple valuation levels...
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The value of a stock with a insane PE is what a fool wants to pay for it...
and just look arround you...
plenty of fools... actually... sane = insane
that's why the indexes could go X20 from here on out for sure!
2,000 Univ of Michigan students are bummed there is no new i-phone to buy and the new X-box sucks
100 is "neutral".
I always mention that in these threads and everyone ignores me like I'm in parentheses or something.
Look how long we've been in negative sentiment range. This isn't a recent thing. This is the the middle class (what's left of them) screaming out in pain.
680 P/E is too high?
Since when? This is The New Normal.
You missed the bottom because no one had any earnings and now you forecast the top because nobody has earnings comparable to its price? Given your logic how do you enter a trade? If growth does pick up and we don't collapse back to 667 than doesn't earning drive price? Maybe earnings growth going forward brings that PE in better alignment to price? Or the sell off is more orderly than you could possibly imagine?
Get rid of Brady Hoke and this number will turn around.
It was me. U of Mich called and I gave 'em an earfull, I'll tell ya.
Crash the economy? Check.
Wipe out savers? Check.
Crush employment? Check.
Force people to sell homes? Check.
Build a shit-ton of rentals to milk their paychecks? Check.
"Gee, why is confidence falling?"
And that's with 24/7 propaganda.
PONZI!
Why so blue? Your new unaffordable apartment building started construction last month. Home ownership is soooo 2005!
Last year the 10 yr exploded overnight 100 BPS and the 30 yr. Did little now yr later that 30 yr drops 50 bps and the 10 year drops half as much? Finding out why 30 is more popular than the 10 yr is a good starting point! Our long debt is king and is obviously being priced right for overseas buyers? Do we expect the overseas buyer to find increasingly great deals in AMERICA? I would ask your soldier buddy what he FEELS about the subject
When the price of FOOD goes up, people get unhappy.
If it keeps climbing, they will get angry.
And, if they cannot afford it anymore, they will get desperate.
They won't be able to afford steaks, but they will be able to afford taco hell, so they will be happy still.
I love a good experiment.
Let's see what happens.
Pull up a chair.
And what happens when the shelves are empty? Even an EBT card is no good then.
the shelves might go empty but the big fast food MNC's will find something to keep putting in their signature meat flavored blends.
i have to admit that sometimes ZH makes my weekend with words like "cock-a-hoop"...........priceless!
maybe it's time for TPTB to once again chnge the dialouge Carlin
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weather weather weather! Yellen said so, Steve Liesman repeated over 500 times each day, everything is booming and economy is doing fine. All Weather.
i love sentiment. even at this extremely high level (for this cycle), it still isnt within 25 points of previous cycle highs. and, is still actually quite recessionary since its still well under 90.
All the data (unemployment, inflation, CPI, and GDP) are all lies.
The financial press is corrupt.
The FED is killing the integrity of data to control interest rates.
It's not a secret anymore!
w w w what? y y you mean our gov't lies to us? rehab was going so well for me....I h h h hate n n n nurse ratchet
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it is time for zerohedge to stop posting articles about bullshit indicators . no one cares about propoganda manipulated statistics anymore.
if they don't come in as expected they are ignored. or if not, it is because the fix is in.
if the fix isn't in, it is.
indicators and the bullshit ideology of economic statistics they rode in on 60 years ago are there as another layer of financial camouflage, or financing, as I like to call it.
yea, i said it. financiouflage. the use of economic jargon and financial statistics to confuse and mask reality in order to help create a deceiving effect.
UMich is about 10 points from 2007 highs. 2007 was euphoric and what came next surprised.
Today's environment is in the tank. The masses know it this time.
UMich at 82 is just another lie - from the long list of bullshit macros, lying analysts, lying MSM and lying politicians.
Your wrong. Your wrong
My social club has decided we will all (68 of us) run into the GM dealership and all buy the biggest car they have to offer. Then we will drive over to the big box store and buy lots of stuff there too. It is Spring and we are just so exhuberant we could just sh_t!!!
Just another phonied up number in the CONfidence game.
The only confidence anybody needs in these Unified States is the bleeding SNAP program. All else is the playground of the. 0001% and is fun to hear about before you wash your hair in the toilet
I don't get it. Most people I know are 10000% confident that we are fucked.
Maybe its fears of Homeland se, er, dept. of agriculture planning a purchase of machine guns?
Confidence game. 'Confidence man = Con man.....that's all.
Is it possible that people are waking up to the ECONOMIC APARTHEID in which we exist?
Concident data, need I say more? It is here one day and gone the nest. Hold on this is a correction and most of you yokels just don't it yet. Say after me, suspect any government data you understand, any data that makes you feel good, any with must be interpretated or explained my someone like Doug Short who is noted for being short of some of his vitals but draws nice. Of course if Janet goes nuts and whittles the taper, take note..... she and the Krut have decided to do anoher experiment. We are under supposedly friendly fire.
My confidence has increased.
I am very confident that my SILVER/GOLD purchases will pay off.
I don't know about everyone else but I'm worried about people living in their virtual world values, in other words the real world is not working with the virtual goals and stats out there today. How long have we complained about the "virtual metrics" being used and they don't change and we all know the error factors just due to economic times are getting bigger. So what do we do, write more studies to show that there's value in what they put out? Kind of seems that's what is being done. We have become "magpies" in just repeating stats and numbers over and over and over that are flawed.
I call it "The Grays" to where people can't tell the difference between virtual and real world values anymore and when you are just immersed in the virtual world, how do you come out and look at the real world? We are forced to look at the real world when people get hurt though and still we create more stats and studies to show that things are working..a circle that doesn't stop.
http://ducknetweb.blogspot.com/2014/03/virtual-worlds-real-world-we-have...
We wanted jobs to rebuild failing infrastructures in the US and all we got were a bunch of "scoring algorithms" that consumers can't even see, access or know they are out there that deny access. It truly is technology and formulas that are proprietary that someone says are correct, whether they are or not being used to judge everyone. The data selling epidemic keeps this rolling because as soon as someone scores you, hey we have more queried data to sell and it just doesn't stop and people think they are being efficient and making good decisions with this flawed data, when in fact the models are never replicated to substantiate they are good at all.
The White House is getting pretty virtual too these days in how they react I feel too. That is scary. When they produced their big data/privacy report, they didn't even mention the data selling epidemic either, just rather said there's "danger" out there for consumers with some data. So in short, folks are scare and when numbers don't add up, what confidence? The models are falling and failing one by one and the consumer gets it over and over.
http://ducknetweb.blogspot.com/2014/05/white-house-privacy-report-privac...
It is like the Occupy Movement knowing something was wrong but didn't understand what it was, and even though the groups are no longer in parks the same issues persist and current methodologies of studies and other reports work to bury that reality a bit harder today. Sad but I think that's what came out of the Occupy movement, smarter virtual technologies to keep everyone sucked in and fooled, magpie stats and numbers.