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United Renter States Of America: Spot What's Wrong With These Housing Charts
The blue line is conventional, single-family housing starts and/or permits.
The red line is "New Normal", "Blackstone is America's landlord" multi-family (i.e. rental) housing starts and/or permits.
Go.
Hint:
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Another 10,000 units in Denver this year..same last year..so far they are filling up too
I see lots of new "I'll huff and I'll puff and, oh shit never mind the wind blew it over" garbage in southeast Aurora and all along 470 corridor and a bit going up around Castle Rock but that's about it for new homes.
I'm currently in an own-to-rent arrangement in the sub-basement of a nice duplex. I was talking with the guy at the bank and he recommends I refi my mortgage into something called a "payment optional ARM". Interest rate is 4.5% for 2 years. After that it floats based on my credit score. He says he thinks he can get it approved at prime + 8%. Now I know that sounds high, but the payments are so reasonable it's still less than my current 100 year fixed rate mortgage payment is now. And the bank guy says I can always refi again later before the mortgage resets, cash out some of my equity to buy a new car and do that over and over.
It sounds like a good idea to me. I think I'm going to do it.
I'd jump on that in a flash. I like that "payment optional" feature.
Tragedy of the commons cometh soon.
Pretty little gulags for you and me.....yeah yeah yeah
Any of them named Cabrini Green?
Better apartment unit is reserve for party member.
I assume renters are generally in the bottom 40% of household income earners and that matches w/ 37.5% in US live in non-owner occupied housing. 2nd quintile average income is $29,700.
Average rent in US = $9,192/yr; multiply 20% to rent for utilities, etc. (average total cost of rent/utilities = $11,030) and take off 10% from income from bottom 40% income for SS, medicare, sales taxes, etc. assuming this set pays little to no Federal / state / property taxes (average renter household income = $26,730) .
This means renters paying 41% of their after tax income on rent/utilities...
Just wait until food sucks up the rest.
A good quantity of people can't afford to buy their own homes anymore.
Job Situation: http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
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They'll need foodstamps to supplement their booze, cigs, and casino EBT cards...
Since the entirety of the economy is a ponzi, why taking so long to institute the 40,50,60 etc. year mortgage?
From USSA to URSA, that sounded like progress, no?
nodebt sez
"I'm currently in an own-to-rent arrangement in the sub-basement of a nice duplex."
maw-maw asks that you call it a bi-home, not a duplex.
a lot of people think 'duplex' is low brow, and anything with the "bi" label sounds trendy and cultural
What is a " sub-basement"?
the floor under the basement. Sub means under. Super means above, so a super-attic would be an attic above an attic.
same exercise for my hometown, Portland, OR...
Average rent in PDX = $17,688; multiply 20% to rent for utilities, etc. (average total cost of rent/utilities = $21,225) and take off 10% from income from bottom 40% incomes for SS, medicare, taxes, etc. assuming this set pays little to no Federal / state / property taxes (40% household income = $26,730).
In Portland which has average household income and well above average rents, average renters pay 80% of post tax income on rent/utilities.
This may help explain why renters aren't turning into buyers...since they have no chance for savings...only hopes for more SS or disability or welfare to subsidize falling incomes
No Debt, what about moving to the third sub-basement and take out a zero down, Never-Pay-Back Mortgage. Finance it with a $120k Student Loan over the coming years. The Student Loan Thingy will surely be foregiven from what i can tell reading about the Outcry from the NAR and Mortgage Bankers Assoc.
Ham,
Not necessarily, savvy high income dudez will find a property that is not selling and cut a rental agreement with the seller. The idea is that "some cash flow" from a renter is better than "zero cash flow" from dead flies on windowsills to the owner.
In Texas (I know, I know) we have high property taxes. You rent, save cash flow, minimize risk of declining housing market, minimize major repair risk, save 20% downpayment in cash....etc.
So yeah, I dont have the numbers, maybe rentals in apartments are people with "no equity" in life, but there is most likely a group of people just taking advantage of illiquid property.
Texas guy here. With it being just my wife and I, we just rent a nice energy efficient apartment a 33% discount to the tax + mortgage of what a starter home would cost. We save the difference by buying precious metals, numismatic coins, and other hard assets. Love my $70 light bill too. Housing in metro cities in Texas are disposable. That great neighborhood today, will be a crap hole 15 years from now and property tax will also be as high as a rent payment.
Will be moving to the hill country in Texas in a few years to retire in an RV with all the bells and whistles or perhaps the Ozarks. Houses are a money pit. I've been a home remodeler for 25+ years. People never factor in the maniditory cost of re-roofing ($12,000), painting the whole house ($8,000), and the AC / Heater self destructing ($8,000) not including the HOA, taxes, and everything else.
If you don't have kids, renting doesn't always make much sense or if you live a very simple lifestyle.
Oh well.
you just better be damn creative where you stash your stack if you live in a rental or RV. Yikes.
I'm not against rentals...I own a few...just saying rent increases are way ahead of renter natural ability to pay for them...obviously spending too much on rent means less spending on everything else plus too little savings so unlikely to be move up buyers.
Karlus,
I live in Vancouver, WA, 15 minutes from Downtown Portland, OR.
Ham's got it right - rent/utilities for the masses is really and truly approaching 80% of take-home pay. So people cram as many roommates as possible into an apartment or small house. That is how they manage to survive in PDX.
Houses in decent condition sell in less than a day. Apartments in decent condition are rented in less than a day.
Houses in marginal neighborhoods go for as much as $300K. Decent 1BR apts are usually north of $1000 a month and some are closing in on $1500 a month. It's brutal for people trying to find housing in Portland.
Apartments are in a bubble--they accelerated off the sub-prime bust. During/after sub-prime crisis Fannie continued to loan, while all other commercial lending stopped. Thus, apartment values did not drop and, in fact, increased with the lowering of rates. Result: projects are selling at big premium to cost as soon as they are completed.
So far, they are leasing up, but "flood" of new supply is coming. This showed up in my inbox as typing here...
http://www.reisreports.com/resources/video/apartment-trends-q1-2014?auto...
Candyman
Candyman
Candyman
Soundview Projects
"Pretty little gulags for you and me.....yeah yeah yeah"
Oh fuck you max2205. This American rental allergy is utterly ridiculous. Rent first, then buy in the place if you want to stay there, if you really want to buy and remain long-term. Gulag my ass.
We did that in the late Eighties. It worked for a while. Now it's seen as humor. Actually, the best MO was to do this several times with no money down, cash out refi, park the cash and let the bank take the properties when the SHTF. Wash, rinse, repeat.
Holy shit!!!
Property tax means everyone rents. All land is the king's.
Major BULLISH!!
/sarc
@ William,
You are my hero.
And the sheep and the chickens can use Virtual Free Range™ glasses just as livestock ...
http://www.secondlivestock.com/public/vfr.php
Feudalism. A nation of Lords and peasants.
^^^this, funny how things come full circle.
"Feudalism. A nation of Lords and peasants."
Should read: Feudalism: A Nation of Lords and Peasants w/Guns.
What good are guns going to do you if you....
A: Are too afraid to use them
B: Are too stupid and untrained on how to use them properly
C: Don't know how to keep your head and continue to use your gun properly while being shot at.
D: When you have a 1000 rounds of ammo and the Corp/Fed has 3 billion rounds and counting.....plus Total Situational Awareness.....plus Drones.....plus the NSA.....plus Extraordinary Rendition.....plus Bought and Paid For Courts.....plus Banks shutting down your accounts......plus Corporations blackballing you forever from the workforce.
Welcome to Prison Planet. Where Feudalism never went away....it just went underground to regroup, retrain, and re-deploy
For enough people, the first three don't apply, and the fourth doesn't matter when fighting back is right.
Jumbo, chin up!
There are enough Vets out there that are renting, who are Trained, who know 'afraid' is always there but will still step up and teach the other renting Americans to advance under fire.
"Renters Lead the Way"!
You need to add a bar to the chart showing the increase in the number of multiple families living in a single family house.
Serfin' u.s.a
Why invest in real estate that goes down in value when you can invest in real estate that generates revenue. Food stamps, Obama phone, subsidised housing, welfare recipients can't afford to buy houses but they can rent for generations.
It's the faux capitalist version of those 60's style Stalinist apartment buildings all over eastern europe. You're still fucking peasants as far as I can see....
Livining in a $150K rental with $150K of student debt.
Their iPad's battery keeps them warm at night while the porn they stream through keeps them entertained and distracted from the world of hurt they are in.
Of course .. just wait until the pandering politicans establish a whole new set of game rules like a "Federal renter's rights law"
... you cannot discriminate based on credit scores, you cannot differentiate rents charges based on payment history, you cannot evict for 120 days if there is a child under 5 inhabiting the premises, you must pay interest on the security deposit, you cannot collect rent if there are any structural defects (which the tenant will always make sure there are), you must waive rent for 30 days when either tenant loses his/her job, you must guarantee utility continuity even if the tenant cannot afford them .....
Oh yeah .. just wait until the pandering pol's start setting the game rules. Let's see how profitable things are then.
California?
I wish someone would add about 1,000 units near me and bring the rents down.
I run a multi-family advisory. Age 25-37 moving to Denver in droves. I think it may have to do with the appearance of new foliage in Colorado. Just guessing.
Lots of growing opportunities here.
I had an idea recently. Could developing a pot growing warehouse prototype have development potential? Hmmm. Calling all investors...
Loft / greenhouse conversion of Denver warehouses. Love it! Don't forget the piped in Semuta music (Dune was so prophetic) :)
I think Brooklyn is ripe for this!
Gettin ready for immigration reform?
Ghettoz, bitchez!
Only takes 2-3 years to attain the 'G' status.
The land belongs to a tiny minority. Everybody else has to pay rent to them. This includes businesses, the majority of whom rent their premises from the minority.
I work all day in a cubicle so that I can afford to sleep in a cubicle.
The New American Dream.
this is how america is becoming the land of serfs. the Fed is buying your mortgage via MBS and Blackstone is buying and renting out all these rental units.
The Serfs only had to give their 'lords' 25% of their income.
Bathing in fluorescent lights FTW!
pods
Hey, if the Japanese can do it, so can we!
"I work all day in a cubicle so that I can afford to sleep in a cubicle."
You should count yourself lucky you have a job and bed, it's the All-New American Boogaloo.
@bloody muppet
Did you mean bungalo? If so here's a little ditty for ya. To be sung to the tune of LA Women by the Doors.
With a liitle bed in a all American bungalo
I was sleeping in a city of fluorescent lights
Just another lost debt serf
City of fluorescent lights
City of fluorescent lights
Yeah! Come on!
Sad, but true!
Millennials- see your future:
http://inhabitat.com/japans-tiny-coffin-sized-apartments-make-your-colle...
Neuromancer - William Gibson pub.1984
A year here and he still dreamed of cyberspace, hope fading nightly. All the speed he took, all the turns he'd taken and the corners he'd cut in Night City, and still he'd see the matrix in his sleep, bright lattices of logic unfolding across that colorless void…The Sprawl was a long strange way home over the Pacific now, and he was no console man, no cyberspace cowboy. Just another hustler, trying to make it through. But the dreams came on in the Japanese night like livewire voodoo, and he'd cry for it, cry in his sleep, and wake alone in the dark, curled in his capsule in some coffin hotel, his hands clawed into the bedslab, temperfoam bunched between his fingers, trying to reach the console that wasn't there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtsOQz2I09g
(All of life can be reduced to a Seinfeld episode.)
You already have a free cubicle to sleep in silly......you just said you work all day in one.....just pack a sleeping bag and crawl under the table.
Your commute everyday will be the ENVY of the entire office !
till the company camera catches you washing your balls in the sink and talking to yourself, get tazed, "Hey, man I need to go back to my cubical to get my... AHHHHHHHHH!"
They release you in a nearby city, penny-less, a guy says, "Gimme' your shoes!" you do and then, "Suck it!" as he slaps you, ripping at your hair. You say, "What's your problem man" to which he answers, "I got fired from the bank and its in my nature."
"I work all day in a cubicle so that I can afford to sleep in a cubicle. The new American Dream".
You obviously have never lived in NYC or San Francisco where it has always been thus.
Plot them on the same scale and start the plot at zero
Agenda 21 in action.
That was my thought as well. I am seeing it more and more in the RTP. It used to be I would hear about it on the radio, now I see it in action. Mixed use developments. Townhomes stacked together like trying to get 8 houses on a monopoly space. All different colors and glued together. Crammed onto a couple of football fields and being sold for some ungodly amount because in your mixed use develpment there are dry cleaners, a starbucks, and a chinese joint. Disgusting.
pods
LOTS of those developments around, especially near commuter train centers. However, those are the upscale versions you're talking about. What's left of yuppie life.
I steer clear of those places, just in case whatever is keeping people in those places is contagious.
pods
it's a feed lot. where you put the cows and sheep.
Don't forget the orthodontic clinic, at least the prisoners will have straight white teeth.
In Europe they are already planting multi-family blocks even in the smallest 500 people villages. The White genocide with African and Asian migrants cannot be accomplished without the rural areas.
But nowhere the sheeple recognize what the intention behind the Agenda 21-plan is.
Things are beginning to look mighty feudal up in here.
maybe not that far back. Rewind to those gaudy 70's shows set in the slum projects like good times, etc. Fucking depressing.
The late 90's where the best humanity will EVER see things, boys! Its all downhill from here!
That's a bit dark, no?
Steal your house , just to rent it back to you.
Sadly, many will find those terms acceptable.
Correct. Anyone else remember when we actually sent bankers to prison for breaking contract/property law?
I do, (S&L crisis).
Charles Keating croaked this year.
Steal your house , just to rent it back to you.
You have to own it, first. You don't, the bank does.
Hate to break it to you muppet, but you don't own it... regardless of what the paper tells you.
Hate to break it to you muppet, but you don't own it... regardless of what the paper tells you.
Who does?
Warehousing the sheeple
Just in time to meet peak Section 8 subsidy demand , courtesy of benevolent.gov
Yeah, then trashed in 5 years and torn down at the taxpayers expense. Love them Section 8's.
My former house was on a golf course and very nice. the Buyers turned it into a rental and when the Section 8'ers moved in, sat out front at night on the front steps sipping beer and smoking the area slowly turned from a 'neighborhood' to simply a 'Hood.'
Rentals have way of doing that sometimes and the associated sinking property values are an added Bonus.
A surge in rental units is just another rung on the ladder leading to total wage and tax slavery. What a wonderful tool for the financial/govermental symbiotic relationship.
In Switzerland only 34% of the people own their home. In Germany, it's 40%. Americans need to have a mortgage as proof they are not trash.
Thank God feudalism is gone in Europe.
"In Switzerland only 34% of the people own their home. In Germany, it's 40%. Americans need to have a mortgage as proof they are not trash."
Absolutely correct Zeta and here in Switzerland we have solid legal protection for locataires (people who rent, lodgers) which doesn't exist in the USA. Property hereabouts is "owned" by the huge insurance concerns mostly, rich foreigners as well. Sounds like the USA is coming to the same situation but without the guarantees for "lodgers". Gee, must be tough.
Zeta, "trash" are those who steal from the efforts of others. An added value is accretive, sucking wealth from the productive is parasitism. I am btw, a landlord.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0041959/quotes
Is it a misnomer to call segregated, single-family units inside of one building "multifamily units?" Maybe it's US-centric since outside US I think it's common for multiple generations to live in one house.
Where's the line for mobile homes?
"Where's the line for mobile homes?"
In the middle of the road, where else?
Stock futures are up with this "good" news.
Just bought a large home-improvement item that was delivered in a cardboard box that was divided into 2 pretty equal-sized sections. So my question is, once that box makes it to the street, will it be considered a multi-unit housing start, or single-family?
Long campers and rural land without zoning restrictions.
(Good luck with the latter.)
Now the question is, how much of this "multi-family" housing is actually STUDENT housing?
Jesus they are building a lot of that shit around here.
You are correct sir. I have several rentals in a college town. It's about management. Has been a great investment, consistently generating income.
Get out before the student loan bubble bursts.
No shit. Any rental over five years old is a maintenance trap, as compared to new construction financed with ZIRP. As always, it's not a level playing field.
waking up homeless yet? .. on the Continent your fore-fathers conquered.
Problem not found. Doesn't the US already have a huge oversupply of houses? Why the fuck would people want to build more of them? The vacancy rate in Las Vegas is over 10%. What moron is thinking "the problem with Las Vegas is the lack of unoccupied houses" durrrrr
We're turning into Pakistan
If the Baltic Dry Index is falling and multi-family units are rising I can only assume that containers are being turned into housing.
They are: The Housing Recovery: From REO-To-Rent To Containers-To-Condos
The housing market has got so bad now...
the banks have re-possessed Paul Young's hat.
12 homes made from shipping containers:
http://design-milk.com/12-homes-made-from-shipping-containers/
Off topic: Those pesky farmers and migrant workers must be getting all uppity. The USDA needs some body armor to go with their sub-machine guns:
https://www.fbo.gov/?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=9dfebeda308f15074b832bcf...
I guess we all know what's coming.
Sheep Riot!
The sheep only riot .. to get closer to the front of the cue!
Just an FYI guys, IIIA doesn't stop rifles.
"The sheep only riot .. to get closer to the front of the cue!"
I suspect you are confusing urban sheep with the rural people. I doubt Department of Agriculture is involved with urban areas.
The fucking USDA with body armor and machine guns? This must be what it felt like to be living in '30s Germany, just watching the NAZIs push the envelope and every time saying 'I can't fucking believe they did that, when does it stop?', and of course the answer is 'it never stops'.
Fucking amazing isn't it? Yet here we sit...... waiting.
Contact your congressman. Tell them to defund the dept of ag- or at least forbid this purchase. Push back. Thomas Massie mentions this.
How's that idea worked out so far?
Pesky farmers or crazed FSA recipients? Don't forget which agency runs the SNAP program. When the teet runneth dry, shit's gonna get real.
The request was for submachine guns with night vision and mountable flashlights. They are creating night raid squads not riot control.
Don't forget FLIR and ammo
https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=4a0c8085f238dba5bcd...
https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=09400fde08c9564104c...
Its high time for the good guys in (and just purged from) the military to take out the garbage and end this shit show now.
Here in Califuckya the California Department of forestry (fire fighters) just levied a "service fee" of $125 dollars a year on rual property they say for "inspections". They have decided that they can come inspect your property at any time without your permission. The local fire chief here has camera footage of them on their property without his permission spitting chewing tobaco all over the place. The problem with the this is obvious but it is componded by the fact that the CDF runs prision inmate crews all over the state and is armed to the teeth because of it. Yes, some of them are in fact peace officers as well as fire fighters. In addition to being cops they are also in charge of forest resources so if they don't like you cutting down trees on your own property they can site you for that. At any rate these guys can come on your property unannounced and site you for anything they don't like. If you don't fix the problems they intend to hire contractors and have the work done and bill you for it.
I don't know how in the hell sane people live there.
I keep threatening to leave but we have a couple of beautiful grandchildren here. I think we would all have to go together or rally the sheeple to bleat to death of the Kraken.
Andy Gause (the monitary historian) fought this in New Jersey and won. It is unconstitutional. Need a search warrent.
Fight it in court.
Still living in my home for "free", just paying taxes and insurance. Why? They sued for foreclosure using forged docs. Typical of the banksters. So I asked for sanctions and now they, the shyster attys, want to withdraw! Court won't set date as they need to protect the banks. Fine with me...no payments for three years.
GREAT CASE....ROMERO V BONY. New Mexico Supreme Court Decision. Banks have to show chain of title and possession....consideration.
Banks FEAR this...Who, What , Where, How and When... all relateing to the note! They can NOT answer! We use discovery to destroy them.
Homeowner wins do not make the news...wonder why? Death, by law, to banksters and their atty stooges.
Way to go! Fuck em!
Yes, quiet title search. But you're have fun trying to sell or leave it to your kids.
'
Private sale by quitclaim deed should do the trick.
Mortgage broker and Title Company will hate it! But they WILL deal with it in order to find some business.
Waves of the future!
Craig
Said it before I'll say it again. Its working so well for the Chinese over there and all those strip mall owners here. "American real estate, building tomorrows bailouts today."
Then, to see what's happening in most of America, subtract out those permits/starts found near the Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Marcellus shale plays ...
Well, I suppose people who bit the bullet in 2008 and realized that they couldn't afford to own a home are learning from their past mistakes.
Gotta find the silver lining in all this yaknow.
Steve "the clown" Liesman is pumping on CNBC again. everything is great, housing is back and booming! Lies Man!
Was that fool spouting the same during the Bush Regime or is he just an Obama sock-puppet?
He works for Wall Street, and Wall Street doesn't care who's in the big house because they own them either way.
No it's perfectly explainable. Housing is supposed to be like a car. Why would anybody want a house older than ten years? The new construction barely lasts that long before it starts to fall apart anyway. When everyone moves out of thier old homes, leaving them empty, they can be demolished to make room for more Pulte slum projects. Pulte gets more contracts to build, stock goes up. Investors are happy and .gov gets to show the strength in homebuilding as strength in the economy.
Back to the people. Like leasing a BMW, they get to lease far more than they could ever afford to buy, making them happy. Fuck, not like 70% of America could ever afford the down payment on a home or get a loan. I about choked whem I saw the new PMI charts. Put 15% down on a $200k house and you still pay $100 a month in PMI.
So every ten years a multi-family fiberboard development gets torn down and a new one gets built, with whatever publicly traded retail establishments are hot at the time, or whatever stock some director needs to sell. Pure disposable society. The stock market can't exist unless there is infinite growth, this is how it is achieved.
Placating the masses, keeping the stock market scam going. This is what they want and what they are building.
On target. Pulte, DR Horton, all these publicly owned crap builders, destroying our urban and even rural landscapes with utter trash. I can't imagine what living in one of those pieces of shit is like when they are 15-20 years old. Always love the big medieval flags fluttering when under constructions -- coming soon! After several years of sparing us more, the local mafia, er, government, has approved three new "developments". Ugly as sin, crammed into smaller footprints, and right on top of the freeway. Wonderful place to live as long as you never pull back the drapes. Two of these lots were formerly strawberry patches left over from urban development. Just horrendous. I detest these companies with a passion.
Biff's World is here!
Supply of rentals increasing and then followed by rent controls.
Once rents get out of control, the government steps in. Watch out.
"A government big enough to give you everything you want is a government big enough to take from you everything you have."
-- Thomas Jefferson
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."
-- Thomas Jefferson
Everything will be Section 8.
Americans love their Tyranny. Americans vote for Tyranny. Americans deserve Tyranny. And we are getting it, all little more each day. Fucking idiots!