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Caterpillar Retail Sales Plunge By 13%, Most Since February 2010; Decline For 17 Consecutive Months

Tyler Durden's picture




 

If someone was looking for a reason to buy CAT stock (alongside the company's stock buybacking -sic- management), and send it to fresh all time highs, today's latest monthly report of CAT April dealer retail sales should be sufficient.

First, the good news: US retail sales of machines in the US posted its fourth monthly pick up, rising 12% compared to April of 2013 which print, however, was the biggest, at -18%, annual drop for US sales since 2010 so this was merely a modest stabilization relative to depressed comp levels.

As for the bad news, well: everything else. The drubbing in sales across all other markets continued, with sales in Asia/Pacific, EAME and Latin America all dropping by more than 20% compared to last year.

End blended result: global retail sales have now declined Y/Y for 17 consecutive months, which incidentally is just shy of the longest stretch of declining retail sales on record. Worse: the -13% drop in world retail sales matched the biggest annual drop since February of 2010.

Frankly, we are surprised that CAT hasn't started reporting non-GAAP retail sales: those which exclude all negative numbers.

 

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Tue, 05/20/2014 - 09:46 | 4777166 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Time for the Fed to buy more CAT.

<What....did you think the Fed was only buying bonds? Silly goose.>

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 09:47 | 4777175 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Nahhh...Time for CAT to bury the Fed Turd in the litter box.

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 09:53 | 4777197 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

CAT, the ultimate indicator of the housing and construction markets.

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 09:53 | 4777202 jbvtme
jbvtme's picture

you moth be kidding me?

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 09:58 | 4777232 pods
pods's picture

So companies that make things that are used in building stuff and actual commerce are in the shitter but companies that plug you into the matrix are having money thrown at them?

Sounds about right in this day and age.

pods

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 10:05 | 4777271 RevRex
RevRex's picture

aaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhh the green shoots of the ObowelMovement's recovery summer FIVE!!!!

 

 

IF both parties are the same, can someone point out the racial hiring quotas for white people that the republicans hid in one of their finance bills, or any of their bills?

 

I get so tired of braindead LiberTARDians spouting their stupid lies and showcasing their ignorance....

 

Feel free to down arrow me if you are too cowardly to answer my question!.....

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 10:18 | 4777291 localsavage
localsavage's picture

I guess everyone who is being forced to buy "clean diesel" tractors like in CA has already bought them.

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 10:29 | 4777389 pods
pods's picture

Well I will take a shot at this I guess.  Both parties are not the same. If they were, there would be no divide.

What you are looking at is differences on the margin.  Usually in places that are emotionally charged.  That gets people riled up, and thus supporting one of the two parties.

In terms of the government's health, both parties are no different.  Government spending and power goes up with both of them, at our expense.

Racial hiring quotas in a bill is nothing more than a bit of dried parsley on top of a meal. Presentation.  A hat tip to their base if you will. 

Social issues are the main thing used to differentiate between the parties. And even these social issues achieve their goal.

Ex:  Gay marriage.  

Either the government forces churches/states to marry gay people or accept the marriage as valid, or they force the states to disregard their own laws passed.

Either way the government is in charge and has just acquired more power over us.

Or how about guns?

The "right" says that law abiding citizens should be able to be armed. The "left" says that government may determine who can and cannot own a gun.

Both positions are government heavy.  The 2nd amendment has no ambiguity as to being law abiding as a prerequisite for owning and using guns.  

Either way the government is in charge of determining who can and cannot own and use a gun.  

pods

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 10:38 | 4777422 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

let's not hijack this thread with reasonable thought please

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 11:02 | 4777521 pods
pods's picture

My bad.  

Okay, well I have heard an analyst at DB wrote that this Cat slowdown is actually Caterpillar building a cocoon and it will metamorphisize into a beautiful and profitable butterfly by the end of 3Q2014.

pods

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 10:08 | 4777286 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

There is so much over capacity in every sector, that this will carry on for a while.  The best  use for Cat's machinery would be to tear down some strip malls, office buildings, dead factories, and residential housing to return the land to a usable state.

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 11:17 | 4777582 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

Send 'em to Duntroit.

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 10:01 | 4777240 ilion
ilion's picture

Who cares what is happening in real world, we have no real stock market anymore. CAT will probably close up on the news today.

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 11:56 | 4777727 what's that smell
what&#039;s that smell's picture

why should CAT waste its money on CAPEX or sales when it can better use revenue for share buybacks and stock options?

smells like ayn rand to me.

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 09:59 | 4777241 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Did everyone miss the story here?

Caterpillar is now a Fashion Retailer who happens to make Earth Moving equipment.

Here in Bangalore, the most I've seen of CAT is swanky apparel stores in the most expensive locations.

Next UP, Boeing lingerie!

Then GM triple ply TP.

The re-making of the be-he-moths!

ori

 

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 10:03 | 4777256 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

And he's NOT kidding about Boeing lingerie either!

http://www.pinterest.com/pin/416794140487349054/

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 13:57 | 4778146 BlindMonkey
BlindMonkey's picture

I am going to wait until I can get my recycled aluminum shorts from the skin of MH370 thank you.

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 10:05 | 4777265 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

I heard a rumor that every high level manager at CAT has been given a book to read and the title is "The Art of Channel Stuffing" by GM.

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 10:33 | 4777401 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

hahahahaahahaa. That was funny.

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 13:58 | 4778149 BlindMonkey
BlindMonkey's picture

"Then GM triple ply TP."

 

With the quality problems that GM has had I wouldn't chance it.  

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 10:47 | 4777462 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

Wrong, CAT  the ultimate indicator of suppression of mining metals prices. Follow the sales margin would it be  backhoe profits or megaton dump truck.

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 09:53 | 4777201 WhyDoesItHurtWh...
WhyDoesItHurtWhen iPee's picture

Those "non-GAAP retail sales" would probably include some "fisting".

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 11:41 | 4777672 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

Two boxes: One for the body, the other for the head.

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 09:54 | 4777205 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Well, the Federal Highway Trust Fund will run out of money by the summer causing over 100.000 highway projects to shut down.

So no need for extra scoopers I guess...

unless Obama starts a "adopt a pothole" project...

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 10:12 | 4777312 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Shovel Ready 2.....coming this summer to a state highway department near you.

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 10:59 | 4777506 BandGap
Tue, 05/20/2014 - 09:47 | 4777172 youngman
youngman's picture

My Cat dealer down here in Colombia that I drive by every week is out of business..or he moved..they loaded up all the machines last week and took them away...

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 09:53 | 4777200 withglee
withglee's picture

CAT dealers "don't" go out of business. Dealer principals and ownership may change but they never go out of business. They are huge businesses and CAT monitors dealer management very very closely. CAT dealers are captives of the factory. They're not like an auto dealer.

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 09:56 | 4777214 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Sounds like his 'floor plan' financing was revoked and his machines re-possed. That would most likely include his parts department as well. I suspect bankrupcy court awaits.

<GM isn't the only corporation that channel stuffs.>

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 10:00 | 4777242 youngman
youngman's picture

In the USA maybe..but this guy just took over an old restaurant....filled the lot with several machines and became a dealer....no parts or repair shop...this was out in the boonies too...not a very good location in my mind...but he had several million dollars worth of equipment there....John Deere too...all brand new

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 10:46 | 4777457 Max Cynical
Max Cynical's picture

Owning a Cat dealership is a very exclusive club...with very little turnover. When we were working with Cat a few years ago, the smallest dealer in the nation was more than a $100M/year company.

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 10:55 | 4777495 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

Yes you can do that kinda business when one(1) brass bushing for the undercarrage costs $2400 for 1 small part. I know, I will never own another piece of equipment that say CAT. Once you buy one the CAT has you by the balls.

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 12:47 | 4777896 withglee
withglee's picture

That's why you have a choice. To major contractors where downtime costs dearly proper maintenance and product support are the order of the day. It's about not being penny wise and pound foolish. Most small independent contractors drool over CAT equipment but know it doesn't suit them economically. Others like you feel CAT rips them off. Fine ... your appraisal ... your choice.

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 10:26 | 4777372 onewayticket2
onewayticket2's picture

youngman,

did obama visit your CAT dealer over the last 5 years...and tell everyone they were the model for the Recovery??

 

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 10:44 | 4777444 youngman
youngman's picture

Oneway...that is the problem..I dont think anybody visited....lol

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 09:47 | 4777177 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Is @Volslinger going to update his/her short call from last year? Maybe disclose to us how much he/she made going long and fading ZH-ers taking the advice in the report literally? Dude was a huge Bull on markets last year too.

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 09:48 | 4777181 SpeakerFTD
SpeakerFTD's picture

How much of this is macro and how much is Chinese/Indian low cost competition?

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 09:52 | 4777192 CPL
CPL's picture

None.  Everyone is broke.  Including Chinese and Indian farmers.  (Cat equipment is great, very pricy though.  Too expensive for the market to sell any.)

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 09:56 | 4777217 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Theres no market in anything from Wal Mart to Cat!

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 09:59 | 4777228 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

That's why you have in-house financing with zero down, zero % interest and 30 years to pay on a piece of equipment with a working life of 15. Governments aren't the only organization that kick the can down the road.

<Sadly even that is no longer working. Yellen better start shoveling fiat out the door in a hurry.>

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 09:50 | 4777190 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Other countries don't want to buy NSA-hacked bulldozers.  They spy on you and tell the NSA where you're digging, what you're digging and have sensors in the blade that detect precious metals and rare earth elements.

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 09:51 | 4777191 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

clearly, they will need to fire thousands of employees to overcome this.  #WINNING_BY_PRINTING

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 09:55 | 4777210 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

One of the big trends is Computer Aided Earthmoving Systems combining on board computers and GPS. Would you want to buy Cat machines that let the NSA know what and where you are building things?

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 10:50 | 4777471 Jadr
Jadr's picture

Even if your premise is correct, I doubt that much of the machines usage are for clandestine activities or for projects which secrecy is necessary.  If the NSA wanted to know what you were building or where I don't think they would have many issues regardless of the brand of construction machinery being purchased and used for the projects.

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 09:55 | 4777211 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Overcapacity everywhere you look is a bitch.

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 10:06 | 4777276 813kml
813kml's picture

I think the obvious solution is for Cat to use its inventory of backhoes to dig some huge trenches and for GM to dump its undrivable cars in them and collect the insurance money.

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 10:09 | 4777294 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I didn't know you could buy insurance to cover crap.

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 13:52 | 4777306 813kml
813kml's picture

I'm sure that Uncle Buffett can accommodate their needs.

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 14:04 | 4778184 BlindMonkey
BlindMonkey's picture

Doc, do you know if  GM is on the hook to recall their parked inventory waiting to be scrapped?  Repairing stuff before it is permanently recycled.  I think that would be the ultimate broken window.

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 09:55 | 4777212 blueEyedDevil
blueEyedDevil's picture

Bid this sucker up, so we can get Hilary elected

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 09:55 | 4777213 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

" He gave us a Phone he's gonna do more "

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 09:56 | 4777216 Bosch
Bosch's picture

In a holding pattern until the rebuilding of Democrat run cities commences by bulldozing the vacant homes and buildings and turning them into productive farmland.  

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 10:02 | 4777250 youngman
youngman's picture

I wonder how their Watches are doing..very trendy..but WTF

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 10:04 | 4777260 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Weather.

Pretty soon it will be too hot to work.

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 10:07 | 4777279 ptolemy_newit
ptolemy_newit's picture

sanctions on this equipment will sonn followw windoz 8ish

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 10:08 | 4777284 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Elon Musk is coming out with the electric Tesla Dozer so people are putting off their heavy equipment purchases.  Long Tesla!

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 10:29 | 4777390 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

I'll bring the jumper cables and a 5.4L SUV assistant. $120 service fee.

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 14:16 | 4778244 SmittyinLA
SmittyinLA's picture

Don't joke about Elon Musk, I joked he should dump the Tesla car battery scheme as it was limited by wealthy electric car buyers and why not just sell the batteries to the state without the cars, then he did. 

 

Yes CA is that stupid/corrupt.

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 10:09 | 4777293 loregnum
loregnum's picture

It's been snowing for the last 17 months...

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 10:15 | 4777320 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

But if Yellen turns on her printers again in June, this is bullish.

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 10:18 | 4777333 Eyeroller
Eyeroller's picture

Don't worry, it's the weather!

Now shut up and BTD.

It's Tuesday, sheeple.

Ponzi pump will come to the rescue.

BULLISH.

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 10:19 | 4777336 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

CAT forecast: Blow-up another country to rebuild infrastructure or finance minimum wage workers to live in a new McMansion.  

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 10:27 | 4777378 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

The Actual truth here is that globally there is now a slew of Copy Cats.....  Global sales are gone, not to return.

US sales are up on the shale gas boom.

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 10:36 | 4777409 JJdog
JJdog's picture

weather, all because the sun came out everyday, and there were clouds. Go ask Yellen, she will confirm this. 

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 11:00 | 4777510 bubblemania
bubblemania's picture

Bullish!

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 11:00 | 4777513 dobermangang
dobermangang's picture

The best performing retailers this year are the ones with the "going out of business" signs posted in the windows.

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 11:32 | 4777652 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Besides buying all those dumped US treasuries William Dudley and Yellen of the Federal Reserve bank will have to keep on buying stocks.

Loads more of debt for the US Federal Reserve is off the books. The US Reserve keeps on stuffing debt off their books. Their accounting is starting to really stink.

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 11:41 | 4777676 WilliamShatner
WilliamShatner's picture

It's not our fault!

It was the bad weather's fault!

 

Sincerely,

CAT management team.

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 12:12 | 4777789 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

"They didn't build that."

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 12:18 | 4777814 Falconsixone
Falconsixone's picture

Get to work on those drone cats that can scrap 100 houses a day.

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 14:12 | 4778226 SmittyinLA
SmittyinLA's picture

They should be getting a bump from Bill Gates and his purchase of the Nile Valley Delta compliments of the Arab Spring govt he financed in Egypt.

 

 

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 14:18 | 4778249 SmittyinLA
SmittyinLA's picture

There is a play for CAT and all its copycats XOM, they'll make more off CAT than CAT.  

Tue, 05/20/2014 - 18:47 | 4779098 flyingcaveman
flyingcaveman's picture

Business will pick up when the auto manufactures run out of room.  They're going to need more runways and test tracks to park all that unsold equipment.  It's a symbiotic business relationship.

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