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Is The Economic Recovery Only Statistical?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management,

 

 

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Wed, 05/21/2014 - 16:35 | 4782520 Au_Ag_CuPbCu
Au_Ag_CuPbCu's picture

You can make stats say anyting you want...

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 16:47 | 4782561 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

And if you are willing to go the extra mile and torture them with pliers and a blowtorch... you can make them absolutely scream "RECOVERY!!!"...

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 17:18 | 4782677 just-my-opinion
just-my-opinion's picture

No (I like your post butt)....It's Recovery....with a small R....r

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 17:41 | 4782762 BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

I'm still trying to rEcoVeR from 3 recoveries ago.

Thu, 05/22/2014 - 03:24 | 4784000 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

What King Obama is really mean when is say recovery, is more like "re-cover-y-our-ass".

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 16:55 | 4782592 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Statistically speaking; it can be mathematically proved that every person has one testicle and one ovary. (I couldn't help it; the devil made me do it).

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 16:58 | 4782608 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

With a dental drill and no anesthesia, you can.

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 17:07 | 4782638 andy_pandy
andy_pandy's picture

sure but lets say there is growth; where is it coming from? probably financial "products" using the feds funny money; can someone give the millenials a crystal ball; guess that might help them work out their own futures

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 16:37 | 4782521 Slave
Slave's picture

Notice how the recoveries started taking a longer time after we got the Fed?

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 16:41 | 4782537 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

They never seem to mention the confidence interval or confidence level. 

For the rest there is Disraeli and Mark Twain.  Lies, damned lies, and statistics: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics

 

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 16:40 | 4782544 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"Detroit goes bankrupt." Nuff said. "Only the beginning" as by far the worst recovery post World War II "wanes."

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 16:56 | 4782596 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Detroit always goes bankrupt during economic recoveries, doesn't it ? the nice man on TV said it was okay.

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 16:42 | 4782548 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

My economic recovery is purely statistical, and I have to turn the chart upside down.

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 16:43 | 4782549 RangerRiley
RangerRiley's picture

How do I delete my account from ZH?

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 16:57 | 4782603 orez65
orez65's picture

"How do I delete my account from ZH?"

Stop reading ZH and reviewing its articles.

ZH does not "stalk you"

You are full of s**t!

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 16:43 | 4782551 RangerRiley
RangerRiley's picture

I want this account deleted -- I have 6 other usernames that I log in with and this one I want to remove.

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 16:44 | 4782553 RangerRiley
RangerRiley's picture

Is the "red button" coming yet?

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 17:03 | 4782627 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

 oh it's coming alright...

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 16:44 | 4782555 RangerRiley
RangerRiley's picture

hello?

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 16:45 | 4782557 RangerRiley
RangerRiley's picture

I hate ZH

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 16:45 | 4782560 RangerRiley
RangerRiley's picture

does hating ZH make me more avantgarde?

 

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 16:51 | 4782582 starman
starman's picture

Hey ranger go fuckyourself the go fuck your president or  bitch or what ever you call him, her!

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 17:34 | 4782745 Grumbleduke
Grumbleduke's picture

Avantgarde is just another word for bullshit - John Lennon -

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 16:47 | 4782566 RangerRiley
RangerRiley's picture

delete

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 16:48 | 4782568 starman
starman's picture

If anyone would take in to account the amount of businesses lost since 08 there'd be 0 recovery! 

Gm sold 8 million cars in 07 and 4 million in 2013! Nuff said!

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 17:01 | 4782617 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Well, it depends on whether you're an optimist or a pessimist, you see. If you're a pessimist you look at the glass, and say; "look it's only half full". But, if you're an optimiist you look at the glass and see it lying broken on the sidewalk and all the water has run away." Wait, something doesn't sound right here; just a second, I gotta check my reference material in my Economics Textbook.

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 17:41 | 4782765 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

No worries...your theory is still sound.

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 18:31 | 4782927 The Old Man
The Old Man's picture

The glass is full you bozos! 50% water and 50% air. 

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 17:52 | 4782805 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

Actually the optimist sees the bottle half full, albiet with green water, but the animals drinking it aren't dying, so all must still be ok. Could be there is a storm coming that fills it up and makes it less green at the same time.

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 18:45 | 4782987 notquantumdum
notquantumdum's picture

To an optimist, the glass is half full.  To a pessimist, the glass is half empty.  To an engineer, the glass is twice as large as it needs to be.

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 17:04 | 4782629 InflammatoryResponse
InflammatoryResponse's picture

and they have recalled like 50% MORE cars than they sold last year or some such.

 

heard that on the radio.

 

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 18:39 | 4782923 The Old Man
The Old Man's picture

That's because if you spend $45,000 on a GM car, you actually have something. If you spend $15,000 on a GM car, you bought JUNK! Know several people who have them there $15,000 piss ass engineered POS and they swear by them, even though they've had them back to the dealer more than once within the first couple of years. The younger generation seems to admire and respect GM as a bulwark of American manufacturing. Seems they're going to find out which is which over a very short period of time. But you can't take pride away from people. They got a good deal! Boy did they ever. Fucknuts.

"See the USA, in your ..............", here you insert the division of GM. 

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 16:49 | 4782570 RangerRiley
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I think it is funny that I got removed from the ZH chat room. Anarchist posers

 

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 16:50 | 4782576 RangerRiley
RangerRiley's picture

ZH is so cool

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 17:05 | 4782633 orez65
orez65's picture

This article is full of s**t!

If GDP was corrected for "true" inflation it would be negative since 2008.

Look at the employment chart A** H**E! 

Full employment / population:

2007 about 53%

2010 "bottom" of recession about 47%

2014 about 48%

A 1% employment recovery!! Big F***ing Deal!

And that is with their B**L S**T numbers!

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 17:10 | 4782651 just-my-opinion
just-my-opinion's picture

I'm over 40....and a damn good engineer...I call BS till I get a good job

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 18:42 | 4782870 The Old Man
The Old Man's picture

I'm over 60, an independent tradesman, and the thoughts are the same. Used to be able to write my own ticket. Now, I write the estimates with a gajillion alternate addendums so the customer has more choices to spend less money to get a lower quality product. Boy, it looks good when I leave, but I make it clear that they're on there own as far as garantee is concerned. "You want to pay for junk, and have us install it, we garantee correct installation, and that's it. We come back to fix it, or fix somebody elses fix, your paying us triple to do it."  The lowest bidder is sometimes not the correct choice. It costs us the same amount of time to install junk as it does to install permanent quality material. And the flippers drove me so nuts that I stopped doing work for them. Espescially the foriegn flippers who were taking all their liquor store cash and buying up foreclosures by the bundle. They want a silk purse from a sows' ear and then wanted to deal the agreed upon price down "AFTER" the work was completed. Caught on to that real quick. 

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 19:00 | 4783040 The Old Man
The Old Man's picture

And "just-my-opinion", look... ya know ya got a degree. There's a lot of guys out there in the same boat. You, me, a lotta people. We can do some pretty damn good work. Problem is no-one wants to pay for it. Not many want to engage a professional for the "Cost!" The schools are part of the problem, and our career targets as well, along with a retail base that's failing as a "place to get things". We can and do, do good work. But the incentive to pay for it just seems to be diminishing by the year, day and hour. I know a good deal of engineers, architects, accountants etc... who are literally out in the wind and performing or thinking seriously about career moves. This is some real shit that is going down in the economy that nobody talks about. Some of us have obligations that "have" to be made. Some of us have to "adjust". As long as I have been looking at the mess, it's the "Same as it ever was.", scenario. We are few for the many. But we are individual to ourselves as well.

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 17:32 | 4782734 esum
esum's picture

40% of any government program is FRAUD.... disability, medicaid, medicare, obumbler care (probably higher than 40%) .... what are the fraudsters going to do when the donkey hops in the wagon... corps with a brain are gone or in the process of moving offshore.. wealthy are exiting and concealing their wealth.. the middle class is shrinking.. now the libtards can have the venezuela / cuban society they want.... cept no one left to pay for it ...no cotton pickin jobs will be left.. however there is one biz that is prospering and expanding .. the sinaloa cartel... apply at your local MS13 club ... folks wont have a pot to piss in ... unless sanity prevails in november... last chance folks.. 

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 17:37 | 4782752 viator
viator's picture

10,996,447 on disability
23,052,388 households on food stamps in the average month of fiscal 2013
47,636,090 individusals on food stamps in the average month of fiscal 2013
14,266,000 Disabled, under age 65
  7,186,000 Social Security beneficiaries who are neither aged nor disabled (for example, early retirees, young survivors).
92,594,000 Americans not in the labor force in April 2014   
  2,670,000 U.S. unemployment benefits

Thu, 05/22/2014 - 00:39 | 4783849 Ms. Erable
Ms. Erable's picture

You forgot to add .gov employees at fed, state, and local levels to the list of those on the dole.

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 17:39 | 4782758 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

I have ears to the ground since I was reorged back in 08 at age 58, working 80 hours per week and just listening to customers in very basic needs--convenience store and glass.  Used to work at JCP but quit that nonsense when i couldn't take managements total disdain for its working poor.

In general, the vast majority hasn't recovered.  Most are barely getting by and can eek out that last drop of gasoline or buy the airplane shots to ease their burden rather than the half, the pint or the fifth in order to make the budget work.  Of course you have those who were never affected and those who have recovered but most are much younger than me.

Customers have walmartized America, they think it's not important to buy quality and will buy just crap so they can make their budget.  Our income has declined for the last five years at my shop as people delay making any purchase until it's absolutely mandatory to buy.

It's sad to watch as we decline to a 3rd world nation, both in demeanor and living standards.

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 18:02 | 4782840 The Old Man
The Old Man's picture

Great comment. And a big, "No Shit!", to the article in general. If the ordinary middle class American can't see through the lies and deception the government is trying to pass off, they're well beyond being just fucked. The statistical manipulators are just that; so everything looks good for the "Government", just screw everyone else, it's business as usual so the party upstairs can go on and on. Wake up you dopes. This may be your last few years to hoard everything you can other than equities and government bonds.

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 17:42 | 4782770 smacker
smacker's picture

The problem with articles like this is that they're based upon the assumption that government statistics are accurate and the only debate necessary is how to interpret them. This is wrong. Government stats are virtually all lies, lies and damn lies from head to foot. They are deliberately intended to deceive and mislead people.

I've said it previously, if GDP and CPI were actually measured correctly, it would reveal that there is no overall economic growth in most Western countries. The growth that does occur is in narrow market sectors. The gap between true GDP which is negative and peoples' expectations has been made up by debt. But people are now maxxed out on debt, hence no more economic growth.

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 17:52 | 4782806 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

Ask the man with the molotov cocktails.

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 20:08 | 4783207 Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture

This statistical data clearly stinks.

WHERE’S THERE A CRASH? WORLD ECONOMY COLLAPSING!!! - HEADLINES MAY TILL TODAY! http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?board=198.0

U.S.
- Industrial Production Plunges By Most In 5 Years (Biggest Miss In 3 Years)
- First-Quarter U.S. Economic Slump Looking Uglier by the Day
- Q1 GDP Cut To -0.6% At Goldman, -0.8% At JPMorgan
- Q1 GDP Takes Another Hit As Factory Orders Miss
- Growth Freezes Up as U.S. Business Spending Slumps
- Freddie Mac earnings down 12% - Level of Earnings Not Sustainable
- Barclays to cut 19,000 jobs as it scales back investment bank business
- Barclays' FICC Slaughtered: Revenue Plummets 41% In Q1
- AIG Profit Declines 27% on Property-Casualty Claims Costs
- U.S. Lost $11.2 Billion in GM Bailout, TARP Report Says

U.S. INCOME
- No Raises For Anyone: Real Hourly Wages Decline For The First Time Since 2012
- The Meat Crisis Is Here: Price Of Shrimp Up 61% – Beef At All-Time High
- Inflation is evident to everyone but the government
- 94% Of March Consumer Credit Was For Student And Car Loans
- Early Tap of 401(k) Replaces Homes as American Piggy Bank
- US Savings Rate Plummets To Second Lowest Since 2008

U.S. JOBS
- U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT 23.2% (SHADOW STATS)
- Labor Force Participation Rate Crashed to 62.8% from 63.2%
- Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Climb to Nine-Week High

U.S. HOMES
- Apartment Projects Fuel 13% Jump in U.S. Housing Starts
- Home Prices Climbed in Fewer U.S. Cities as Demand Cools
- 30-year yield marks largest weekly rise since March
- Freddie Mac Eases Mortgage Rules to Limit Putbacks
- Cash U.S. Home Purchases Surging as Rates Rise: Mortgages
- Americans Shut Out of Housing as FHA Fees Jump: Mortgages
- DoubleLine’s Gundlach Recommends Betting Against Housing
- Realogy Falls Most on Record as U.S. Home Sales Decline
- Freddie Mac Starts Trailer Loans That Buffett Criticized
- Fannie Mae Would Need New Bailout in Downturn, FHFA Says
- Easier Homeowner Credit Compelling Wells Fargo: Mortgages

U.S. RETAIL
- Retail shares tank in premarket on disappointing profit, sales
- American Eagle profit slides, to close 150 stores
- Caterpillar Global Retail Sales Decline For 15th Consecutive Month
- Deere Cuts Sales Forecast After Decline in Equipment Volumes
- Consumer Confidence in U.S. Unexpectedly Declined in May
- Retail Sales Miss Across The Board
- Wholesale March Inventories Rose 1.1% - Smashing Expectations 3rd Month In a Row
- GM’s China April Sales Rise at Slowest Pace in 14 Months

More Headllines: http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=247239.msg1471637#msg1471637

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 21:00 | 4783348 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

How is that housing market doing for RE non-investors? I'm sure it's great in WEALTHY areas since the rich are getting richer, but nobody is buying around here in middle america. Houses on market for months, most wind up being taken off market and where are all those new homes? RE taxes so high it disqualifies many buyers or put's them in 'dumpy, TLC' category. I dunno, I suppose there is a bit of recovery, but it is more like a trickle down than a gusher.

Wed, 05/21/2014 - 23:00 | 4783675 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

We may soon be forced to face our economic Armageddon. The forces that have driven stock markets ever-higher and upward may be beginning to wane. Many markets became distorted years ago when QE and super low interest rates hit the economy in an effort to lessen many of the missteps of recent years.

This has been more helpful in holding up the underlying value of assets and derivatives it now appears than helping to repair a wounded economy. QE has up to now stopped an implosion of derivatives including the resulting contagion and shock that would have spread throughout the financial system. Unfortunately the economy has not fared as well as these asset prices and in many ways these policies have harmed Main Street. More on this subject in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/05/facing-our-economic-armageddon.ht...

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 17:32 | 4789822 PiratePiggy
PiratePiggy's picture

If you inflated asset prices, as was the plan, of course people with assets get far richer... and people without assets get farther behind.

 

Good thing most Americans go to government run schools, or the ruling class would have never been able to pull this off.

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