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All That Is Wrong With The US Housing Market In One Chart
If there was one chart that shows best what is happening with the bifurcated US housing market, it is this NAR breakdown of sales by pricing bucket. It shows beyond a doubt that courtesy of the Fed's policies there is not one but two housing markets in the US: that for the 1%, or those who purchase mostly homes in the top price buckets ($500 and certainly above), and that for everyone else. Guess where the bulk of the activity (i.e. flipping) is, and worse for the so-called recovery, where it isn't.
The logical follow up question: what percentage of total sales fall in any given price bucket? Here is the answer.
So 4.5% of the total US housing market, that costing over $750K is seeing a pick up in activity. The remaining, and cheaper, 95.5%: not so much.
Preemptive spin attempt warning: harsh snow in the winter fell only over houses that cost $500K or less.
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where does the cardboard box on Market Street that I saw in San Fran fit into this chart?
on the right.
Wrong? Here in Portland OR houses are being snatched up like crazy and the market is on fire. I see SOLD signs everywhere, and my Real Estate friends are loving it for the moment. With Interest rates this low for the moment, payments are cheap. My house has Doubled in price over the las 24 months...I see the bubble...I am having a Garage Sale this weekend to get rid of all my Shit then on the market it goes...I see the storm...I am out.
Portland seems the rage for the hip moneyed class now along with Seattle.
The new, new generation could care less about home buying and saving up equity..they are used to living paycheck to paycheck in apartments.. "all I need is a place to lay my head" attitude. And why not? 45% of the population is on some form of benefit and 10million are on some form of disability. The 20 million that are here illegally are getting by without paying any taxes at all (all income done on cash basis).
Every "young" American knows that the "gobment" will bail them out...until it doesn't...buy gold and silver and hide it well.
That chart squares with my experience trying to sell my Mom's old house over the last year. Put it up the beginning of July (right after the Fed announced they might 'taper' and rates shot up). I was definitely in the 100-250K range. Three price reductions (the third being a whopper) and finally got it sold last month.
I watched as more expensive home kept getting snapped up, while cheaper units (like my Mom's) languished.
ALL buyers were private parties, paying cash, looking to rent the place out. And those guys don't pay "retail" for a house. They pay "wholesale", since they have to make a profit on the rental.
Now, the house isn't in some "red hot" real estate market. Just your average suburban town with a good school district and modest taxes.
Blackrock never called me. No fix-n-flippers ever took interest. Just private buyers of rental properties.
47MM on food stamps, 10MM on disability.
baby boomers getting OUT of the market...forced to rent or double up to get by due to zero savings and bonds paying peanuts.
there simply are not enough heads to buy up the property and the remaining ones have gone full dependency.
Plus 18,000,000 welfare and 12,000,000 section 8 housing ...
Obamanomics = welfare
Been that way for a long time now; Bushes didn't help; Clinton didn't help; Obama doesn't have a clue.
Craig
Raise the price and see what happens.
That person is looking. Potential buyer.
What size ?
And where's chart for tent sales?
Most of the guys on Wall St. see homes selling like hotcakes in the Hamptons and think we are in a housing boom
Maybe we should add a new catagory for the amount of new tents purchased.
And used vans, small RV's and other "mobile homes"
Yeah, remember Chris Farley in his "Van Down by the River" sketch? That's the norm today!
We can live in "minivan parks" and clean houses for the Chinese owners.
So 90% of the homes sold are down ~ 7% on average. I expect this to be the average for the next 10 yrs.
'harsh snow in the winter fell almost exclusively over houses that cost $500K or less.'
Awesome.
"Castles made of sand, fall into the sea-----eventually" Jimi H.
"There's a red house on the corner... financed with a no money down neg-am loan..." "
Where is the "now living in my parent's basement" data?
Dibs on the K st park benches!
Nothing angers me more than this.
People getting squeezed out and being forced to cohabitate human sardine tins is no way to live.
You speak as if the lives of the serfs are more valuable in the New World Order than those of sardines.
All part of the big plan.
Please board the buses on your left between the two -20ft high chain link fences.
Funny how when the most expensive purchase a person will ever make (a home) goes up in price; that's a good thing. But, if food or energy go up in price; that's a bad thing...
Everything that is financed is going up in price; thanks to the Feral Reserve.
Central Banksters' cheap money policies will destroy the planet...
Everything financed MUST GO UP IN PRICE because of supply and demand.
Financing expands demand.
This is a great arrangment for the financially secure because they can pay the inflated cost of living out of cash, and loan the rest out to earn an interest rate from the poor.
This is not so great an arrangement for the poor or the young because the artificially inflated prices make financing a required necessity, and the interest payments become a significant barrier to class and professional mobility.
It has worked for Europe.
They've even spun it as being environmentally responsible, easier to deal with, more sophisticated, more sociologically correct, more fashionable, etc...
Think about it. In big cities (vice the multitude of small ones in America) people do their time at work ("Doing Time" is an apt description) and then after satisfying the overseer they an debauch themselves in whatever way they please.
The ability to form businesses in these cities is extremely restricted to those who are aligned with the Masters, and prices and overhead costs are intentionally inflated to absorb most or all of the relatively-higher wage one gets there. That way all money comes from and goes back to the Masters, and they need only expend the minimum of a worker's labor in real property to support the life of their human capital.
Of course...
It also means that self-reliance is impossible, which in turn means that the sardine is obligated to do whatever they are told.
So, it is a pleasant sort of slavery for the time being.
Of course there is also the low birth rate it generates, that put the squeeze on everything. So the collars and manacles may not be so comfortable in coming years.
You should see how it is in some areas of China, Venezuela, etc. People share the same place and sleep in shifts. Many times they are what we call mini-warehouses with a pull down front door.
w00t, winning the war against the lower and middle classes!
I believe that was two charts not one. Truth in advertizing matters.
If the newest bubble is in the high-end market then that is where I would expect the biggest drops to come...all things being equal.
How to play this? Short high-end builders? Invest in foreclosure lawyers?
Or...given that we live in an Oligarchy... perhaps we can assume they will try to get more cash out of the middle class, causing the the bottom to drop out of the lower-end housing?
Just so you don't think those low end houses cannot drop in value, price for a 10,000 sq. ft. mansion on 2.5 acres in Detriot in 1984 - $35,000. Same place today, $15,000, and you have to clear the wreckage yourself.
But, you can farm the land! (And, park your Winnebago there?)
Craig
A home costing $35,000 in 1984 would not be classified as a mansion. Maybe a former mansion.
Winnebagos are selling too...many people are taking the home on wheels style...
That (homes on wheels) will soon be declared illegal on many counts by the New Regime. It's an obvious attempt to dodge the Tax System by not owning actual property, which can not be tolerated. The additional pollution is an obvious detrement to green earth policies, which will not be tolerated. The unnecessary additional wear & tear on our infrastructure is unacceptable and can not be tolerated. So let it be written, so let it be done. Be afraid, be very afraid.
Motor homes will be stopped, searched and confiscated by DEA. Anyone on board is an enemy combatant and will be detained indefinitely.
In remote areas, an RPG will be used to save time and relocation costs.
I woould like to see these charts with a gun ownership chart overlapped. My guess is the under 250k home crowd owns substantially more of them and if they ever decided to knock on the doors of the over 1mm crowd and ask to live in the east wing there is not much that could be done about it.
Still trying to get uninvited from the neighborhood parties, I see.
alright I have a neighbor story for you. So one of these neighbors calls me up to grab a beer a week ago ( I swear I don't know why, I am generally grumpy and unpleasant). Anyway we get out and after some basic chit chat I say "what's up?". He (35 yr old dude approx) says "I have a problem". Long story long he tells me he is unmarried (everyone assumed he was, and he and his girl have 2 kids). He says he bought his house before meeting his girl and she moved in and whamo she gets pregnant. Kid 1 happens. Their marriage hits the rocks and of course the obvious solution was to have kid 2. She does not work and he has a solid job making good coin. He tells me that they hit the rocks again and now she is rapidly planning their wedding. He thinks it's because she wants to lock herself into not just child support, but also alimony. He thinks that if he tries to push off teh wedding or say he does not want to get married she will bounce, take the kids and immediately find another dude to play daddy while he works 14 hours a day. He asked me what I thought. I told him that he either has 30 sexless years of resentment filled marriage with a solid chance of it ending with her walking with alimony, or he can detonate the thing now and both their lives will be a financial mess and they will just spend the next 20 years driving each other crazy.
He asked me what I think he should do. As if I am suppsed to have an answer for this.
He should probably dig in deeper and have two or three more kids. That will help him clear his mind.
Fonz... Ask your neighbor to look up Palimony in wiki
He should stop being a retard for starters.
No shit. I basically told him that he has correctly identified the two choices in front of him. But that is suburbia out by me. Every house needs a 3 ft thick steel door to keep the skeletons from falling out when they load up the minivan to go to baseball practice and act like the cosby family.
You left out the nail gun option fonz...
The solution is simple - unless he is really attached to his kids, dump the gold-digging girlfriend and satisfy his sexual needs with high-end prostitutes. He'll spend less money in the long-run and have sex with better looking women.
A hitman is much cheaper.
The advice I got years ago from a senior partner of one of the big four accountancy firms over a business problem.
Even supplied a contact phone number.
No names ,no packdrill.
I didn't, but it was close.
He could try the old magic disappearing act Fonz. After he transfers his house, and assets (assuming he has any equity or assets) into someone he trusts name.
He should probably learn how to use birth control so he doesn't find himself in the same situation again though.
Yeah, that's what we need - more daddies that do not financially support or raise their kids. And I thought the blacks had that cornered.
I am not racist - just look at the statistics.
Easier to bail and pay now than later, IMHO.
A doctor friend of mine said his advice to those considering marriage is, "Find a woman you hate and buy her a house. Saves years of wear and tear getting to the same place." He's been there three times at least... so he should know!
Craig
He should trade the house for a motor home and park it close to work. She will find a new host in an afternoon.
If he has a decent financial position at this point and his assets provide sufficient liquidity to fund themselves, then he can probably firewall everything with trusts/corporate entities. Every state is different, but in mine at least any assets that you bring to the marriage are separate property (as are items you receive during the marriage such as gifts, inheritance, etc.). However, the fruit of your labor during marriage is marital property. Where most folks get into trouble is a rarely known and seldom followed legal theory called "commingling." That separate property can become commingled with marital property and, thereby, become marital property. Oops. [the burden of proof is on the party claiming commingled property is separate property].
He can also quit being a little shit and grow a pair and ask her for a prenup. If he really is worried about these things, then communicate those worries and get it out there. I suspect that his lack of trust and general resentment might also benefit from some marital counseling. However, in my experience, if one goes into a marriage with the expectation that it might not work out (e.g. prenup), then the marriage tends to not work out.
PS, your description of him reminds me of sam kinison going "your compassion is overwhelming" in regards to his feelings towards his significant other... he's likely doomed to failure anyway.
Several options come to mind:
a) He should change his name and vamoose....
b) He should change his name to La Pierre and find a hot mistress
c) Find a hot mistress
d) see here: http://www.wikihow.com/Get-Your-Girlfriend-to-Move-Out
Numbers 5, 6, & 7 should do the trick. Good luck to him
I hope you told him to stop thinking with his engorged penis, for starters. Then after that, it gets complicated.
The only guy I know that has a million dollar house owns no guns. I was shocked when I learned that. Not even a revolver or shotgun. Nothing. What an idiot.
Of course 2 Rotties can do some damage.......
Nothing beats the intimidation per pound of a large pitbull. Plus, they are great, loyal dogs to their owners.
"Preemptive spin attempt warning: harsh snow in the winter fell only over houses that cost $500K or less."
Hilarious
Not so much as you might think.
Consider - how many of those uber houses are in the Southern and Western states, where it seldom snows?
Plus, if the state is Texas, there is little snow, and the prices are starting low, so they get better value.
Wonder why Toyota is moving to Plano, TX?
Craig
If you regionalized this to NYC, Washington it would be even worse! Maybe also NSA headquarters in Silicon Valley as well!
yes weather related. When it's warmer out, people with less money would rather BBQ in their yard instead of go buy houses. While only the rich people go out and buy million dollar houses on sunny days. Go ask Yellen, she will agree with me :)
from fin.yahoo
Breaking News:
Existing home sales up 1.3%
Same on Google, what a farce...It's almost like they are reading from a script...
Sarc off/
So CNBC keeps reporting that leading economic indicators printing at 0.4% BEAT expectations of 0.3%. But everything I can find says expectations were 0.5%.
I would like to see a chart... of the distribution of homes based on values with upside down mortgages overlaid.
We had the numbers on that the other day, it crosses all price ranges but is worse on the low end exactly because they have not recovered as well.
It's been labelled 'pornographic' and is not allowed on family-oriented sites like ZH.
perfect. time to buy more stocks!
Well, that needs some interpretation for high-cost areas like Los Angeles - do we push all the curves to the right, or does it mean all of Los Angeles is doing great? Probably about half and half.
The reason sales are down below 250k is because there is no inventory. Im in S FLorida and anything decent hits the market under 200k and it has 10 offers on it from both cash investors and FHA first time homebuyers. Of course the sellers take the cash buyer and leave the FHA buyers in the dust. The low end demand from financed buyers is building and build as they cant come up in price range and are stuck missing house after house to cash investors. There is a problem here but its not what you think. All of these instituional investors think they will be able to off load to houses to buyers in a few years with financing but the buyers wont be able to pay more then the investors are paying. These institutional investors are going to be losing money unless they decide to hold these as rentals for 5% return for next 10-20 years.
>> anything decent hits the market under 200k and it has 10 offers on it
Yep.
The USSA housing market in 10 seconds.
The people with money and good credit already own a home and are typically over 50 yo. in order to be induced them into taking on a mortgage which theoreticaly would be paid off when they are over 80 yo, the home prices have to be low, not high, so they can pay it off quickly.
Home sales?
What home sales?
They pretend to sell the house...but the banks and the government still charge us for them as though we were renters.
We pretend to buy the house, though we use increasingly little money down, and have increasingly less commitment to pay, and so squatting has gone wild.
This is what a pretend market looks like.
The authorities bemoan the moral collapse of people who can't or won't continue to pay for a house that they must have (in some form) but over which they have increasingly little control, and increasingly more responsibilities to pay, and which the banks and courts have been increasingly lax to record who actually owns.
So the Fed makes the banks whole on their bad investments, bidding up prices in the process. In the meantime the banks continue to try and collect from the nominal owners - which where successful results in a 100%+ profit, resulting in impaired worker mobility. And the bid-up prices impair producer balance sheets, resulting in fewer jobs, resulting in more foreclosures... and around we go for another turn.
I wonder when this spiralling water slide will hit bottom and how many people will be walked into ovens between now and then?
A lot of people are choosing to forego renting or 'owning', in favor of pitching a tent or living in their cars. I'm talking about people with good, steady jobs, who want to save the $1,000/mo. it can cost to rent a small apartment or mortgage on a bungalow. $1,200-$1,500 with utilities thrown in. $1,000-$1,500/mo. adds up rather quickly. Get a gym membership for your shower, dress / shave at work early in the morning, use the WiFi at work, or retail outlets for Internet access.
The only 'gotcha' is a permanent address, for government mail. If you have a friend who is willing to help, change your address to their's and get a PO Box or PMB and have the mail delivered to it.
You can't be serious. You would do that for 1, maybe 2 months top.
And it is not a choice. If you have enough money to put a roof over your head you will do it.
There's an entire 'minimalist living' movement, which advocates doing this. Personally, I believe there are inexpensive yet practical ways to go about housing oneself. In my case, I rent a room in a house that is in a nice neighborhood. I have complete access to the house (laundry, kitchen, etc.) My total expenses, including utilities, are $700/mo.
Sounds like a great intro to a Dystopian Future.
My dad used to tell me this story as a kid. It paralleled Logan's Run:
The world will be a giant Wal-Mart. You will wake up in your Wal-Mart-supplied domicile, get on the conveyor belt to your Wal-Mart job, get on another conveyor belt to the Wal-Mart store to buy what you need, then back to your domicile. You will never leave Wal-Mart.
And what will these masses of confined, lower class Wal-Martians eat? Solyent Green of course! President Obama in his 8th term, and news and internet brought to you exclusively by Comcast.
That's two charts!
Then there are those of us living in our houses for only taxes and insurance because the banksters (fucking idiots, but you know that) can not legally or illegally foreclose on us as they have no clear chain of title.
I tried for a year, while making payments, to verify the debt. They could not so I quit paying and asked them to foreclose on me as then the party in interest would have to come forward. The submitted forged docs, I called them on it, asked for sanctions, plaintiff atty wants to quit but I objected to that in my reply.
I am glad that banksters are idiots and so are most foreclosure/plaintiff attys are idiots as well. I am not kidding you, they are stupid. They can not answer the who, what, where, when and how of the title/note/mortgage. Discovery process did not go well for them!
Death, by law, to banksters! I send nail guns.
Most attorneys, even those who specialize in foreclosure and real estate transactions, don't understand the issues associated with assignment of the liens. I got a glimpse into this against a TBTF... they ended up settling and we refinanced and paid them off after alleging they lacked standing to sue. In my research I got to talk with a few of the attorneys on the cutting edge of this stuff (with high profile wins under their belts - it's how I found them)... it's highly specialized and incredibly complicated underneath the surface.
The judge assignment plays a crucial role in these cases as well; some judges just don't want to hear shit, others are much more apt to listen and attempt to follow the legal arguments. The foreclosure attorney will have to pro hac vice in the TBTF's expert counsel on securitization, etc. Foreclosure attorneys are generally machine gunners... you keep feeding them a belt of rounds and they keep the trigger down... they're not particularly experts on scalpel work so to speak.
Massive inventory in my area ... yet they keep building. Just another reason why ZIRP and zero down, subprime housing will last forever in my lifetime.
No end to it.
All government numbers/stats are figments of imagination.
"In two charts."
fixed it for you Tyler.
High priced sales volume is up and low priced down versus year ago because last year all of the sales were in the lower priced homes. The chart only looks that way because most of the sales were in lower-priced homes last year and this year isn't keeping up.
This chart sure confirms what I have noticed. Upper end housing is undergoing a bubble, especially in premier markets on the coasts.
After the 2008 crisis, the 1% have been able to piggy back on the Federal Reserve bailouts and money printing, this Fed policy to boost assets prices and the stock market at all costs has been a Bonanza of easy money for those 1% 'ers. Their share and overall wealth share has exploded to the up side. It is only natural that a lot of this is going to be funneled into upgrading and expanding their housing needs.
In the country as a whole, outside the upper middle class neighborhoods, I am seeing a continual downgrade of the housing stock. Houses one kept up and looking nice, are falling into the status of slum houses. Poor people, people on wlefare, people who don't care. America is splitting apart, someday the the divide will translate into the bottom 75% seeing no connections to the rich America.
Monetary and fiscal policy since the '08 crash
has been entirely aimed at lifting bank
collateral asset values with even depositors
held hostage, let alone savers, including most
notably those who SOLD the bubble, who faced
the shakedown: "hand it over." Those people's
parents' retirements were ripped off.
This is tantamount to a lock-out of
anyone but the bankers themselves
partaking of the opportunity created
from the adversity.
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/cash-sales-investors-reo-sales-to-cas...
Loss sharing has been those who
sold the bubble being forced to
help finance being shaken down with
"hand it over."
Net interest margin has obviously
been deliberately kept wide so
only the banks could benefit from
free reserves.
Plus small investors taking
advantage of cheap debt would
threaten raising rates.
Manipulated supply and this
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/ripping-off-young-america-the-...
is ripping off the
millenials of a life.
But then the oceans are
already a given 10 ft higher, so
actually, there're lots of
wealthy adults living on
oceanfront that just went from
being worth, oh, say, a couple
million for a given house, to
worthless.
http://www.popsci.com/article/10-foot-sea-level-rise-now-unstoppable-due...
Depositors should immediately by
law be walled off, insofar as
involuntary deductions from their
accounts are concerned, from bank
liabilities.
The Government has lots of power
over banking process and there're
easily contemplated theories as
to why bank stakeholders should
be estopped from invading depositors'
money.
My brother in California just put $2.35m in "upgrading" to a new home. Nice address, a fortune to maintain.
What this chart doesn't take into account is that due to the large price increases over the past two years in many markets, there are much fewer homes available in the sub 100k range that aren't in totally decrepit neighborhoods. Also, last year was a big year for insitutional buyers and they largely have their foot off the gas at this point. So that would be an explanation for lower home purchases because as ZH has demonstrated in many articles, the "middle class" consumer is largely tapped out.
So rich people are going on a buying spree with stimulus money, while poor people lose their shirt, what else is new? ;p thats how the world works, if you don't like it you have a choice, shut-up or go break some windows somewhere (since voting is useless and all the political parties consist of the same pile of turds).
If all the poor people gather together and break enough rich peoples windows, the poor people will get paid by the rich to fix those windows.
Its a win win win balance is restored.
In-fact, everyone should find the richest people they can and go break windows on houses, cars, whatever you can find, it will stimulate the economy according to supreme over-lord obama.
;p
The theory is sound, wealth re-re-distribution by the blunt end of a hammer.
re-re-distribution because all the wealth got re-distributed to the 1% so it would be a re-re-distribution back to the source.