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The Complete Ukraine Election Preview (In 1 Simple Chart)

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With relative front-runner Yulia Tymoshenko suggesting Ukraine hold a referendum on joing NATO in June - exactly the event that Putin has expressed grave concern about - this weekend's elections in the troubled nation are considerably more crucial to global geopolitical anxiety than the record low levels of implied volatility across FX, bond, and stock markets would suggest. AS Deutsche explains, Ukraine's new president will face challenges in almost all key spheres – in particular, de-escalating tensions within Ukraine, especially in the eastern provinces; conducting deep economic reforms in order to move Ukraine on the path of recovery along with dealing with the international lenders; finally, improving relations with Russia and the European Union. Below we outline the policy agendas of the candidates and assess the probable scenarios of further political development.

 

 

Via Deutsche Bank,

Ukraine: preview of 25 May presidential elections

The early presidential elections in Ukraine are scheduled for 25 May. The candidate becomes president in the first round of elections if he/she obtains a simple majority of votes. There is no requirement for a minimum turnout. If there is no clear winner in the first round, there will be a second round run-off between the two leading candidates, which is likely to take place in June.

According to the schedule of Ukraine’s Central Electoral Committee, the official results should be published not later than 4 June. The new president will face challenges in almost all key spheres – in particular, de-escalating tensions within Ukraine, especially in the eastern provinces; conducting deep economic reforms in order to move Ukraine on the path of recovery along with dealing with the international lenders; finally, improving relations with Russia and the European Union. Below we outline the policy agendas of the candidates and assess the probable scenarios of further political development.

According to the most recent polls in Ukraine (conducted by KIIS on 29 April - 11 May, see Figure 1 and Figure 3), out of 23 candidates Petro Poroshenko remains the most popular candidate in the presidential race (33.7% of total: 53.0% of votes in western regions, 41.4% in central regions, 25.3% in southern regions and 10.5% in eastern regions) followed by Yulia Tymoshenko (5.9%: 7.9%, 8.6%, 4.8%, 1.2% in the respective regions) and Sergei Tigipko (4.1%: 1.1%, 2.4%, 8.1%, 5.6% in the respective regions), while the remaining candidates have significantly lower support margins. The share of those who do not intend to participate in elections varies significantly across regions: 3.6% in western regions, 6.5% in central regions, 13.4% in southern regions and 32.2% in eastern regions.

Despite the economic and civil turmoil, in particular, in the eastern regions of the country, the results of other polls conducted recently suggest a broadly similar level of support for the main candidate; however, the variance of results for Tymoshenko and Tyhypko is quite high ranging from 6-17% and 4-9%, respectively (see Figure 1). The share of those, who did not decide yet, ranges from 10-20%, which increases the probability of largely unexpected outcomes to take place in the first round.

The importance of the presidential elections on 25 May is magnified by the defacto conditionality advanced by the West vis-à-vis Russia in which attempts to undermine these elections would be met with an escalation of sanctions. Accordingly, apart from the electoral outcomes per se, the key issue is Russia’s response to the results of Ukraine’s elections. The outcomes and the degree of Russia’s recognition of the election results in Ukraine will be based on who makes it into the second round, what the turnout is going to be, especially in eastern Ukraine as well as the scale of hostilities in eastern Ukraine in the run-up and during the elections.

In this regard, our base-case scenario is that Russia will tacitly accept the results of the elections (de facto but likely not de jure) in case the turnout is broadly in line with rates of participation observed in the previous presidential elections. Earlier this week, Ukraine’s Minister of Interior Arsen Avakov declared that the conduct of presidential elections will be difficult to control in a very significant part of the territory in eastern Ukraine, most likely referring to the regions of Luhansk and Donetsk. At the same time, he noted that some of the localities in these two regions may participate in the electoral vote.

In terms of the candidates, we see the following scenarios as per the recent KIIS (29 Apr - 11 May) poll results:

Poroshenko and Tymoshenko in the second round (most likely): in this case the second round will not feature any pro-eastern candidates, which may lead Russia towards a harder line on the results of the elections.

 

Poroshenko and pro-eastern Tyhypko in the second round (least likely): this may change the dynamic of the elections in the second round with some potential for more active participation from the voters in the east.

Another factor that may impact Russia’s reaction to the presidential elections is the scale of hostility in eastern Ukraine. Depending on this factor, as well as the rate of participation (they are to some degree interrelated), we see the following scenarios:

Base case (65% probability): de facto, not de jure recognition – hostilities moderate towards the start of elections, rate of participation is relatively high in eastern Ukraine.

 

Optimistic scenario: de jure and de facto recognition (15%) in case of a significant de-escalation of military tension, progress in engaging the eastern representatives of pro-Russian forces in the peace process, relatively high rate of participation.

 

Pessimistic scenario: military escalation, eastern Ukraine boycotts elections; Russia’s meddling becomes significant (20% probability).

 

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Fri, 05/23/2014 - 19:36 | 4790069 Slave
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They're fucked.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 22:44 | 4790472 Newsboy
Newsboy's picture

Maybe Timoshenko could just join Berlusconi...

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 23:13 | 4790517 BearClaw
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Actually Berlisconi is a friend of Putin....Tymoshenko can join her former business partner Pavlo Lazarenko in federal prison.

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 02:23 | 4790737 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Maybe Russia spy first administer lethal dose of radioactive isotope for Tymoshenko and avoid runoff election?

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 03:27 | 4790785 COSMOS
COSMOS's picture

Our elections are no less ridiculous.  I refuse to vote anymore, i will not give them legitimacy by voting.  I hope enough people in the states wise up and it would be nice to see national elections with only 1000 people voting for president.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 19:47 | 4790093 Smegley Wanxalot
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Most Likely Scenario (100% probability): the results are predetermined already, the election results will be rigged, and no matter what the people want Brussels will get its result come hell or high water.

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 04:20 | 4790846 Victor999
Victor999's picture

Yes, they are.  Poroschenko will most certainly win.  He has the Western and oligarch money behind him. And the Right Sector and Svoboda love him.

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 06:57 | 4790954 Reptil
Reptil's picture

This seems true in the case of the EU Parliamentary elections and the TTIP-TAFTA deal even more.
Those have all been scripted, quite some time ago. With false "differences" between the "political adversaries".
Puppetmasters have everything under control, politically.
A large number of people is turning away from the process, disgusted.
What is the alternative?

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 17:50 | 4791872 Idaho potato head
Idaho potato head's picture

I guess just ride until the wheels come off, which seems more likely with each passing hour.

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 18:33 | 4791874 Idaho potato head
Idaho potato head's picture

Duplicate sorry

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 19:55 | 4790106 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

At this point,what difference does it make ?
Ukraine is now a failed state with roving death squads killing the Uke army(for refusing orders to kill civilians), and the Federalists equally.
Humpty Dumpty Ukraine is broken ,and all the emperors mercenaries can't put it back together again.
Winter is not far off.Putin's biggest, and best weapon.

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 03:32 | 4790795 COSMOS
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Winter always was good for the Russians, except when the Mongols came rolling through in the dead of winter.  Those boy were tougher than steel.  Anyone that can beat the Russian has gotta be one heck of badass.

But back to Ukraine, you know looking at Grahams videos etc I was struck by how green and lovely Ukraine is.  Its a farmer's paradise.  And with all the droughts going on in the USA,  I can see why everyone figures grabbing some of that farmland ain't so bad.  As far as the winters they have been getting milder I hear.  Land is darn cheap in Ukraine.  You could get yourself 40 acres and Mule for not much US fiat.  Wouldnt be surprised if Hunter Biden has already gotten dibs on Yuschenkos little mansion.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 20:25 | 4790161 JR
JR's picture

The importance of the presidential elections on 25 May is magnified by the defacto conditionality advanced by the West vis-à-vis Russia in which attempts to undermine these elections would be met with an escalation of sanctions.” --  Deutsche Bank 

Putin is not stupid enough to make any move prior to the elections. In fact, his statement that he would work with whoever is elected, indicates the shrewdness of a leader who realizes Ukraine will need Russia more than the international bankers.

With the eastern provinces increasingly targeted with Kiev’s propaganda, civil war is not off the table. And if this development occurs, Putin is in position, having conditionally recognized the elections, to use his leverage.  A striking example of this leverage is Putin’s cold, hard warning that after the balloting all military actions must be stopped in the country.

The basis for sanctions was never legitimate as Russia’s primary activity only was to provide encouragement for Crimean self-determination and to post troops along the Russian border with absolutely no threat of invasion.

But these sanctions, pushed almost completely by a superpower thousands of miles away and literally blackmailing its European allies into joining in, created the crisis that has cost many lives already.

No country is more at fault for the crisis in Ukraine than the United States. And its leader, Barack Obama, is a fool, found extremely lacking as a statesman and a purveyor of peace.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 21:11 | 4790235 crazzziecanuck
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Putin has gone twice on television and provided non-scripted answers to what appears to be general questions (though screened).  He does so for hours.

Meanwhile, back in the USA, Obama will show up one-on-one with an interviewer and only if he gets a copy of the questions to be asked beforehand.  In the (rare) instances Obama takes questions from a prescreened group of acceptable journalists, not having a teleprompter really shows.

If aliens came down and asked me to take them to our leader, I'd seriously try to talk them out of it.  After all, look at who we have:

Obama, Cameron, Harper, and Hollande.

Can you imagine the embarassment of introducing them?  And we call ourselves an "intelligent" species.

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 01:11 | 4790671 Radical Marijuana
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LOL!

"If aliens came down and asked me to take them to our leader, I'd seriously try to talk them out of it."

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 03:36 | 4790802 COSMOS
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I wonder what Obummer says each day when he looks at his Nobel Peace Prize Plaque.  I guess he is doing YAHWEH work...

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 21:16 | 4790248 BullyBearish
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He is an empty suit...spent and found totally wanting after delivering Obamacare.  

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 21:40 | 4790306 SDShack
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That's why I call him 0zer0. He was nothing before he ran for president. He has done nothing positive as president, and he will be nothing after he is no longer president. A nothing, bookened by nothing. 0-zer-0. 

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 04:12 | 4790841 BigJim
BigJim's picture

And yet I suspect he (and his) will be staggeringly wealthy for the rest of their lives... and may well become another political dynasty.

You couldn't make this shit up. No one would believe you.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 21:44 | 4790312 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

They are holding elections on the Titanic, the ship will sink, but the officers are all running to be elected  captain. None of them have a clue of how to save the Ukraine, they are, after all, just the same old corrupt oligrachs. Only they are the pro NATO oligarchs. The Ukraine is now a failed state. They make great noise about retaking the East from the people who refuse to recognize the Coup government or the coup's elections. The army is there, but when given orders to attack, they mostly refuse. So it is up to the Right Sector legions to make attacks that offer little value in asserting Kiev's authority. So it is a standoff. Even after elections, the East will not submit and the Army is not going to attack in a serious manner. Right Sector will try and do some killing, but they are being hunted themselves. And recent pictures and videos of the East Ukrainian self defense forces would seem to indicate that Right Sector thugs had best be careful who they tangle with.

As a back drop, you have Obama the ultimate Right Sector thug running the whole show. Blaming Putin for the coups failures to attract support in the East. A West Ukrainian minority with western support is trying to impose their coup on the whole nation, this is failing. Washington is wild with rage. But they bet on a lame horse and a lame coup. A few fascist thugs make a great Euro Maidan mob, no doubt. But the Euro Maidan mob is getting it ass handed to it by the people in East Ukraine. And the east is where the industry is, where the tax revenue is and where the people refuse to submit. This is a problem for debt ridden Kiev. All Kiev has is Right Sector thugs and Nuland's cakes. This looks good on the Maidan, but it doesn't stack up to shit in Karkov and other cities of the East.

 

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 03:41 | 4790812 COSMOS
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Jack they are going to use the vote to afterwards justify getting in more NATO 'advisers'.  You will see them 'buy' drones and those drones will be bombing and strafing while they are operated from a NATO command and control center in West Ukraine or Poland for that Matter, or even Romania.

So they dont need too many boots on the ground except for directing fire.  They will if given the chance, starve the people into submission by knocking out their electricity, water and gas.  They will make it utterly miserable for them or kill them.

Their game is if these people don't surrender then we will kill them, and USA has killed millions of innocent civillians already, what are a few more.

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 04:15 | 4790843 BigJim
BigJim's picture

That would be difficult to do with the separatists sharing a border with Russia. Still it could tie Russia down while ZATO goes off and does its thing in Syria/Iran.

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 04:39 | 4790855 Victor999
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If this happened, I suspect Putin would be forced to act then.  Russia has better missiles than NATO and better anti-missile defenses, defenses which are capable of covering the whole of Eatern Ukraine easily and knock down any NATO missiles.

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 18:07 | 4791911 Idaho potato head
Idaho potato head's picture

As Putin has unequivocally stated, after the elections No more military actions in the east. That will be the red line for Russia. No doubt Spetznas can deal with the NATO irritant.

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 18:41 | 4791970 sti100
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there would be no military actions from Kiew in East if there would not be government buildings occupied by masked militant separatists.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 23:50 | 4790572 dsty
dsty's picture

wow, excellent, so why doesn't Putin mention this directly in his long speech?

from what you have shared, it won't be long before Ukraine goes back to the old USSR

This is really high stakes stuff, makes me wonder, how much other disinformation have we been fed

such corruption from a so called free to report the truth media and government

I wonder how long before the dollar goes down?

I see a limited military exchange with collateral damage and the US backing off

me thinks Russia will push hard and some one won't listen

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 00:01 | 4790591 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Put Joe Biden't son on the ballot.

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 03:46 | 4790819 COSMOS
COSMOS's picture

Then is would be a landslide election lol.  I am sure Hunter and his dad would bang as many hot Ukrainian girls as they can.  Imagine them touring the country on the LOVE ELECTION BUS.

Putin is one cool hand Luke.  The USA should be very very afraid of this man.  I really think Putin scored extremely highly on his IQ tests when he applied for the intelligence service as a young man.

We used to have sharp people but all this nepotism and cronyism has landed us with a bunch of morons.  This will be the downfall of the USA.

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 06:50 | 4790949 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

I recently found myself thinking about the decline or collapse of great empires and realized that it is often hard to predict when or how their demise will occur. One sign of the end is a massive growth in crony capitalism and corruption. Many analogies can be taken from this idea, the empire need not be great and timing is always hard to correctly gauge.

The signs of decline may be everywhere but that does not guarantee the end is near. As the foundation crumbles away it is not uncommon for those in power to extend their rule by many tricks and changing the rules in order to gain a new lease on life. More on the subject of how empires collapse in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/05/how-empires-collapse.html

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 02:21 | 4790735 HaroldWang
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Meaningless election short term. In about 6 months there will be a page 10 story about Ukraine needing Russia, blah, blah, blah. Gurantee you won't here about Ukraine in a couple of weeks anywhere other than this site.

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 06:30 | 4790927 what's that smell
what's that smell's picture

Deutsche Bank? Russia’s meddling?

what the flipper does Deutsche Bank know about regional or international politics.

this kind of stuff is straight outta the devil's anus (US state department).

flipping silly. Deutsche Bank is a fellatrix.

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 04:33 | 4790851 Victor999
Victor999's picture

Much media attention on the election, as if it really meant something.  The one thing the new president could do to have any chance of saing the country is to immediately dissolve Parliament and force a new general election, thus providing a fresh start for all.  Probability of that happening?   Almost zero.

The main thing to look for after the election is what happens to those currentoly appointed to power.  Today Ukraine is in the grip of Right Sector and Svoboda behind the scenes with Ukraine's police, military, intelligence service and Chief Prsecutor's Office all under their control - in other words, there is where the REAL power in Ukraine today resides (and in the oligarchs like Poroschenko who control them).

If a new president is elected and these folks stay in power, then you can assume that things will only get worse.  Putin knows this.  He is waiting patiently, like a cat watching its prey for the right moment.

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 05:44 | 4790900 atthelake
atthelake's picture

Putin has a choice of allowing the US/NATO forces encircle him or not. What do you think he will do? He's trying to avoid war but every nitwit "leader "in the "free world" is pushing him into it.

 

If I had the money to dig a bunker, I'd be doing it and stocking it very well.

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 05:45 | 4790901 atthelake
atthelake's picture

Double post. Sorry.

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 06:57 | 4790956 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

What is happening in Ukraine and the unrest in many areas in the world brings into focus the many conflicts that develop when a region decides to change governments often outside the recognized democratic system of voting. In some cases even after an overwhelming vote such as in Crimea the whole process is called into question.

Unfortunately the American civil war did not resolve the issue of succession forever and definitely was not a template for a solution that should be used in countries across the planet. Bottom-line many in politics are slow to give up control and this will not change. More on this subject in the article below

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-issue-of-sovereign-borders.html

 

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 07:55 | 4790969 goldhedge
goldhedge's picture

A lot of 'O's in there competition.

Any chance of ObozzO going there to compete as well?

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 08:34 | 4791006 messystateofaffairs
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Petro Poroshenko is a Jewish oligarch. I don't care where you stick him on that chart, do you really think he will have goodwill towards all men? Russia is being pushed into a corner, they better get their military house in order, especially the nuclear. Also this cold war will be fought via internal destabilization, a Israeli/US specialty and possibly it looks like Putin will try to ameliorate that by introducing some degree of laissez-faire economics into his developing axis of allies. I don't know if he will also play the internal destabilization game with the west, they certainly are getting riper for it as their Ponzi economies implode, they probably won't need any help. The whole global situation is now extremely fluid with elitist fascism seeming to have the upper hand but individualized laissez-faire having the usual natural superiority in wealth creation via the inherent human nature traits of creativity and self interest. If I had to guess I would say the best outcome we can hope for is one of those tainted "middle of the road" mixed economies that will again eventually unbalance itself towards the left. I don't know if a Borg type world is sustainable unless humans are re-engineered to behave organically like domesticated animals, a great number of them behave that way already. Humans are diverse and adaptable, anything is possible. Whats left of freedom is definitely on the table, each person is going to have to make a choice cause tyranny is coming.

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 09:42 | 4791057 LeftyGoldblatt
LeftyGoldblatt's picture

Tymoshenko & Poroshenko were both sacked in 2005.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4225566.stm

 

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 10:08 | 4791092 MarkAntony
MarkAntony's picture

My wife's family and friends in Ukraine say there is no one to vote for. They don't trust any of the candidates, especially Poroshenko and Tymoshenko. I viewed several Ukrainian utube videos proving them both criminals. Everyone in Ukraine is asking why was Tymoshenko released from prison, by whom and by what authority. Tymoshenko was sentenced by a court and should be released only after proving her supposed innocence in a court.

Our entire Ukrainian family and friends (on both sides of political spectrum), truly believe this election to be a complete farce.

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 15:02 | 4791583 LeftyGoldblatt
LeftyGoldblatt's picture

I cannot see the activists on Maidan square ever leaving.

When there is an unpopular decision made (austerity measures as per IMF doctrine for example?) then the people will be back there demanding a change again.

These billionaire politicians became billionaires by robbing the people they now propose to want to represent?

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 15:25 | 4791638 Atticus Finch
Atticus Finch's picture

Sorta like the US.

Sun, 05/25/2014 - 06:27 | 4792870 Davalicious
Davalicious's picture

It seems that all the Presidential candidates for the Ukraine election are all Jews or crypto Jews (like the Chocolate King). Then we have Jews like Kerry, Neuland, etc. desperate to put one of them into power. What is so important abou the Ukraine for Jews? Is it all about boxing Russia in or starting WW3 to kill more white people?

Putin is surrounded by Jewish billionairres. I don't see him as the savior of Europe.

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