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New Home Sales Post Tepid April Bounce As Average, Median Home Price Drops From Year Ago

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Last month's dramatic miss of expectations for a modest post-weather pop in new home sales (having dropped 14.5% month-over-month) so it was inevitable that there would be a bounce. Modestly beating expectations, 433k annualized new home sales in April was only a 6.4% gain MoM thanks to the upward revision of the big miss in March. This 'recovery' remains well below the peak see in January - right in the middle of the worst weather impacted time in US history if one is to believe what the media is spewing. Before the 'housing recovery is back on track' meme gets going though, there is the fact that homes sold in the Northeast fell to the lowest since June 2012... as the average home price fell to $320,100 - the lowest since August 2013.

 

 

A scratch below the surface shows that the April jump was all region, and driven by the Midest where New Homes sold were up a whopping 47.4% (35.5% Y/Y) in April to 84K. Contrast that with the Northeast which was down -26.7% (-31.3% Y/Y) to 22K 

And perhaps the most interesting fact: both the median and average home prices were down Y/Y, by 1.3% and 5.0% respectively. Further, the average new home price of $320,100 was the lowest since August 2013.

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Fri, 05/23/2014 - 10:13 | 4788356 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

None of this garbage matters, just buy everything, we are going higher.  

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 10:20 | 4788373 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The everything I'm planning to buy today is a new HK USP. Gotta keep up with DHS these days!

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 10:14 | 4788358 MATA HAIRY
MATA HAIRY's picture

"The median sales price hit $275,800 in April, down 1.3% from a year earlier"..

 

significant?

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 13:34 | 4789155 NihilistZero
NihilistZero's picture

Considering the mixture of sales is skewing heavily toward the high end on low volume, a percentage drop of any kind is significant.  Despite the FED's best efforts market forces are returning to residential RE.

Don't arm wrestle with the invisible hand.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 10:15 | 4788360 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

the average new home price of $320,100 was the lowest since August 2013.

 

but didn't they raise minimum wage? Isn't that peanuts for every burgerflipper to buy a house now?

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 11:57 | 4788786 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

They have forced inflation down by slamming incomes [in the private sector] so there's less money out there. Isn't the median household income down to about $51,000/yr ?

I read somewhere the median gubimnt income is about $130k/yr and the private sector about $60k/yr but I can't remember the exact numbers but the difference was stunning.

 

 

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 10:15 | 4788361 ACP
ACP's picture

Woo-hoo! Must be why the VIX is @ 11.61.

Single digits by Tuesday!

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 10:28 | 4788366 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 10:23 | 4788382 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Wheeee stawks look at em GO! Gee what a shitshow!

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 10:24 | 4788386 Hindenburg...Oh Man
Hindenburg...Oh Man's picture

VIX = 11.54

What happens if you keep smashing the VIX but the SP doesn't respond? No one is left to buy?

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 10:25 | 4788388 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

320K....the Duke Brothers have set the price.
OK all you bankrupt unemployed serfs, go get that LOAN!

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 10:26 | 4788394 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

Average is $320K....average.  Damn - that's a pretty hefty price outside the cities.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 10:32 | 4788408 Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

Not here in the Jerz my friend.

That's just a hefty fuckin' deposit.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 10:34 | 4788413 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea and who the fuck would even want to live in Jersey if they didn't have to? All just nuts.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 10:32 | 4788409 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea, I remember my dad telling me our 2 story 4 bedroom 2 bath brick house cost 100k in 1978.....we're really so much better off today? What will an average house in another 30 years cost, 1.5 million? All just bankster bullshit there's like 20K worth of materials in a 350K house.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 10:47 | 4788460 greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

>> like 20K worth of materials

You might want to rethink that number.  I dumped $30K into a modest renovation of a trailer.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 10:51 | 4788471 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Damn that's crazy. BTW my profession is home building. I guess we just get the volume discounts.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 11:03 | 4788532 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Is a trailer even worth that much?

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 11:39 | 4788712 greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

>> worth that much?

No, they're usually free.  If they have five or ten acres included they pay you to take it.  Really crazy stuff.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 10:33 | 4788410 O-Nomics
O-Nomics's picture
  • Housing Affordability has dropped +/- 19% since 2012
  • Real Income Growth has dropped +/- 7% since 2009
  • Available Housing Credit (Debt) plunged from the peak in 2006
  • U.S. Student Debt (Credit) zoomed up 35% from 2005-2012
  • The 25-34 Age Cohort's Real Earnings dropped 2.2% '05-'12
  • Existing House Sales have plunged & bounced 3x since 2006
  • The Mortgage Refinance Boom of 2010-2013 has crashed

Chart mashup of the above here: http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 10:35 | 4788415 Dingleberry
Dingleberry's picture

Here is a simple formula you can use for the foreseeable future in housing:

rates get anywhere close to 5%=shit hits the fan.

 

Isn't that brilliant?

Now how to I get a spot on CNBC?

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 10:53 | 4788479 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Right, bottom line it's all good as long as banks can get money at 0%, and loan it out for overpriced crappy houses at around 3.5%.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 13:19 | 4789117 NickVegas
NickVegas's picture

Turns out, they really don't need to get money, they can just create an entry in your account if they have a letter of Marque.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 11:08 | 4788567 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

1900 is a tractor beam, they always are.....  there will be overshoot.... 1920 is a short entry point.....

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 11:17 | 4788606 F.A. Hayek
F.A. Hayek's picture

The simple explanation is there was a polar vortex in the northeast, and a tropical vortex in the midwest.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:05 | 4788843 Spungo
Spungo's picture

320k? Still too fucking expensive considering the average American makes something like 28k per year. Ideally, housing prices would crash through the floor so everyone can buy one. We shouldn't have 3 generations living together in one house. This isn't Europe.

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