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Retailers' Profits Miss By Most In 13 Years: "Consumer Is Not Back"
"The American consumer is not fully back and remains cautious," is the oddly real tone of Ken Perkins, president of Retail Metrics, reporting that U.S. retailers’ first-quarter earnings are trailing analysts’ estimates by the widest margin
in 13 years amid weak spending by lower-income consumers intensified competition:
- *U.S. RETAILERS’ PROFITS MISSING ESTIMATES BY MOST IN 13 YEARS
- *U.S. RETAILERS MISSING ESTIMATES BY 3.2%, RETAIL METRICS SAYS
While extreme weather is tossed out as the reason for this miss, what is an ugly smoking gun is the expectations the chains are missing had already been significantly lowered. Hope remains strong as "pent-up demand" has analysts projecting a 8.6% surge in profits in Q2... as long as it's not too hot or cold or wet or dry.
As Bloomberg reports,
Chains are missing projections by an average of 3.2 percent, with 87 retailers, or 70 percent of those tracked, having reported, researcher Retail Metrics Inc. said in a statement today. That’s the worst performance relative to estimates since the fourth quarter of 2000, when they missed by 3.3 percent. Over the long term, chains typically beat by 3 percent, the firm said.
...
“The American consumer is not fully back and remains cautious,” Ken Perkins, Retail Metrics’ president, wrote in the report.
...
What’s more, the expectations the chains are missing have been significantly lowered. While analysts now project retailers’ earnings fell an average of 4.1 percent, back in January they had estimated a 13 percent gain.
Most retail segments are showing profit declines, with department stores, teen-apparel chains and home-furnishing stores faring the worst, Retail Metrics said. About 41 percent of retailers have missed estimates, while 45 percent have beat.
But faith remains strong that it will all be ok...
Improved weather, pent-up demand and better employment trends may help the industry in the second quarter, Perkins said. Analysts are projecting an 8.6 percent gain in profit for the current three-month period, he said.
Unforntunately, the winter of 2000 was a relatively mild one - so we wonder what they blamed the miss on then...
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Just about everyone I know is broke......but more important, they are no longer afraid to admit it !!!
Just what exactly are these retailers expecting? That the American consumer will suddenly find a +$1000 in discretionary income per month? And then they'll be able to mark up junk at +500% like "the good'ole days"?
Oh, come on...
It's not that bad...
After all, Pelousy just blamed Bush again for some shit or other...
And the MSM is describing Putin as "embattled"...
Fuckin-A's all honkie dorky!
This whole fucking thing is turning out like a bad Ed Wood movie, Plan 9 from Outer Space or sumptin'
It's the other way around, $1000 less per month for Obamacare, plus the fear of $6000 deductible.
As I said last year, the Obamacare sudden-stop of our economy will be something for the history books.
We left and we ain't comin' back. We're busy. Buying precious metals.
Helping our kids trying to launch, pay student loans, do the honorable things. I can't bitch about this stuff if I'm gonna be hypocritical. 'We're not broke, but we're badly bent.'
With respect, but why are you even bothering paying the student loans?!
Just get a deferment, and put the savings into gold/silver, steel and lead.
The TP-dollar and DC US won't even exist in a few years.
"You can also invest in a guillotine."
Ha ha, good one, the average American consumer has stopped buying shit on credit and is now buying PMs, right! Thanks for the laugh.
Why would I want to go to the store to buy clothes or whatever when I can simply take my money and make monthly ObummerCare payments?
I shop at Goodwill. Found a 8 dollar blender after the one I bought for 90 bucks 10 years ago fried (things used to last longer). I'll keep buying the 8 dollar blenders from now on. Fuck retail.
Thai military detains former PM Yingluck
Latest:
http://tersee.com/#!q=thailand&t=text
I wish our military would detain Obama.
I understand you're frustration with the awful current economic conditions and i suffer from it also. However, blaming it all on one person and that person being the duly elected President is ludicrous. Haven't you heard that the President only proposes? I would love to blame Bush for everything but that is a complete simplification of the current malaise. There are so many factors involved in this mess.
"duly elected"
duly .............elected
This fuck-chop had more ballot stuffing than a turkey on Thanksgiving
I agree...but the whole Fuckbama administration - and the government overall - is the problem.
The problem is MUCH, MUCH larger than just one administration.
The criminality has been going on for some time. Since Lincoln, in my book, maybe Wilson for some, or for many, since Dallas '63.
"Don't miss the treasonous government, for the treasonous administration."
who stuffed Florida in bush v gore?
Criminals.
I believe he did more that propose Obama care. The insurance company's wrote the law and he pretty much rammed that shit through on his own. Then after it was signed into law, have made several changes to it with the stroke of a pen ignoring the constitution.
obama is not competent enough to ram anything through. its all a set up, by people hiding in the shadows, and they will throw obama to the dogs at some point, but only to sucker the american people for the next trap they laid.
No, I believe you can blame obama. If Romney had won the election it would, IMHO, be a very different world.
Yeah, for starters we wouldn't be making wookie jokes.
Wait, that's all I got.
pods
jokes about SpongeMit MagicUnderpants
American consumer is dead. Its demographics and psychology. People who got wacked in 08' are trying build retirement and those who are less concerned with retirement still have a horrible taste in their mouth. The only people buying are well off and we all know that even though they have way more money, it'll never last.
"The American consumer is not fully back...."
Baaawaaaahhaaaaaaaa! He qualifies for the next pres of the NAR with his euphemisms and double speak.
But, then again, it is "The Summer of Recovery!"
Yes, another one.
I suggest we start digging mass graves. Know what I mean?
We should leave that to the Ready Reserve Corps when they set up shop at the FEMA camps.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2485607/posts
I am sure they are counting on everyone spedning their tax refunds to boost sales, but seeing as how taxes went up and so many deductions are gone I think they are going to be dissapointed.
Not to mention the rise in cost in everyday items.
Obviously the only thing that can fix this is more government
It is like bloodletting or AIDS "therapy." The sicker the patient got, the more they had to do.
pods
Yet...the fucking casino is up, yet again......insanity
Terrible economic data you say? Well that explains why the market hasn't had a down tick all day and we are making new highs.
More worry! Bullish!
My 9 year old daughter; dad I really want to go to China, me with disgust; why China , my daughter; because that's where they make all the toys.
Bam!
you sure it wasn't that melamine formula you fed her as a kid?
I hope you're proud of your daughter: she understands that producing things counts (and no, production of fiat currency doesn't count)
You have to wonder how Ken Perkins and the like get up in the morning to write this garbage.
Hey Ken!!!!!!!!! 50M Americans on food stamps. Any questions dumbass???
These people have their heads so far up their own asses that they're connoisseurs of their own farts!
Now that summer is here it is bound to get hot somewhere. That plus fires and thunder storms "they" will have plenty of weather to blame it on.
And then hurricanes in the fall... don't forget the hurricanes.
Not "cautious", "dead". Upcoming generation shops at thrift stores and LOVES IT. Complete and utter socio-economic DOWNSHIFT. I don't care what any of my fellow late X-ers say, these kids are the TITS. I love them.
This late x er says they got it from us. Been shopping thrift since high school. Only way to get quality stuff with character
I love you, man!
Thrift stores rock! About the only things I buy "new" anymore, is food and underwear.
And a bro hug for you too, homme.
Millennials are great, by and large--especially the ones born after 1985. Some are schlubs, some are a little naive and weird from overparenting, but overall they're good kids just looking to get by.
Factor in price increases due to (real) inflation and its even worse.
If coke and hookers works so well for the GDP caugh...caugh numbers, then maybe we should include pork & prescription meds. in retail sales numbers.
my inbox is stuffed with promotion after promotion from retailers. big discounts.
No money for clothing and furniture because everyone is buying a Caterpilar. Or is that the stock used to juice the market??
earnings don't matter. market is still up.
QE comrades.
This has been the driest Spring I can remember here in the inland Pacific Northwest. I just haven't felt like going shopping at all.
Which is a good thing, 'cuz I ain't got any money.
No One uses money anymore
Hey Rex, .22 shells @ BiMart for 1.99 limit 2. Better go get a couple for shooting food and such basics as suicide.
Suicide by .22 sounds painful
Nail guns work better.
The only 22lr's you can find around here are 'Made in Russia' and are POS lead powdery thingys. I would only use them if invaded by space aliens.
Really? Check on gunbot, I found CCI Mini mag and velocitor there.
I love BiMart - everything you need, and nothing you want.
Great proletariat store.
The brightspot @ Bimart is the washers are not 2 for a dollar like that fvkin Ace Hardware.
I was reading an article on the drought's impact on the Central valley in California. Article stated the valley, size of Rhode Island, was sinking because the underlying acquifer was empty. Some portions of the valley have dropped 30 feet in the past 80 years. I wonder if a giant sink hole will open up in California's central valley?
Just what do you need that you do not already have?
More Johnson & Johnson stock in my protfolio?
Always need more ammo.
washers
Those higher Obamacare premiums are a bummer.
Ding ding ding. A rubber chicken sandwich for the winner.
Stop and shop aka Ahold was very busy today. Lots of people buying fat burgers and sausage for the barbie on monday. Happy memorial day.
Memorial Day: A celebration of meat and beer. The veterans appreciate it.
Quarterly Rate of Profit Growty(year over year):
Retail Store -19.79%
Retail Hardlines -1.83%
Retail Softlines -26.8%
Retail/wholesale Food -10.56%
And the icing on the cake(despite all time highs for gas):
Petroleum Producing -32.04%
Petroleum Integrated -32.04%
Sooner or later, these sectors will be raising their prices and rightsizing to their new profit levels.
Watch out, my inflation Overlords...
Yeah that SS check will be worth half of what it is today. Can anybody say sardine sandwiches and chicken neck bone soup?
When pets disappear because people eat pet food, and the 0zer0care death panels are shoving the old and sick into soylent green plants, then you will know revolution is near.
Maybe consumers don't have enough MUNNY...! Print faster print faster print faster
"Pent-up demand" What a joke. Any "pent-up demand" has gone into inflated food, energy, healthcare and shelter.
Around here I'm not seeing any sign of a better Q2. So far Q2 is on track to be worse than Q1.
My Q2 looks good only because of my 1%'s & 0.01%'s clients.
Shit all from the 95% underclass.
I hate having all my eggs in one basket but what can you do,except go where the money is ?
Long razor wire.
'Pent-up supply' - of inventory - will precede the next leg down from this large head and shoulders in retail stocks:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=xrt&insttype=&freq=1&show=&time=8
Sears, JCPenney and the like just need to be selling marijiuana/other drugs. Install smoke/fix rooms. Build food/snack court in store. Install video game cubicles. Also install diet/diabetes clinics. Problem solved. It's a win-win.
Gas must hit 42 dollars a gallon b/4 we take the train.
Its only got to hit ten before i take my kid's bike.
Only trains we got out here are ole Mr. Peabody's hauling coal.
Won't be long. Crude oil firmly over $104, and rising. With the pots in the Middle East still boiling, I expect $5-$6 by Labor Day.
A $1/brl rise in WTI equals about 3c/gal in gas: $114 WTI adds 30 cents/gal to gas, and 1 good mideast oil scare will bring us $5/gal gas here in cali.
We SELL future earnings.....UP, UP AND AWAY.......
"The American consumer is not fully back and remains cautious,"
Heretic! Non-believer! Unclean! Infidel! Burn him at the stake!
Pent up demand indeed. I'm definitely in the market for a 60 inch LED smart TV. I'll then have 4 TV'S and can put my 40 inch in my bathroom. Plus my iPad iPods and smart phone need to be replaced as they are all at least 1 year old. Put me down for a new car since the one I bought last year, the one to replace the one I bought in 2005, is well a year old. I almost forgot my furniture, my couch is well past its prime being 7 years old and let's not forget my pots and pans they are at least 10 years old. While I'm at it I might as well buy a new house, you know, cause the one I'm living in is old. PENT UP DEMAND INDEED!!
Cant afford the vaseline anymore and now the fvkin is starting to hurt.
Consumers have no money left over after buying their Xanax, X-Tra Wide Scooter, and Mary Jane.
"...and home furnishing stores faring the worst."
Home furnishing stores ALWAYS are faring poorly. That metric can simply be tossed.
(The other retailers numbers are meaningful.)
gona be a riot @ the Kum-n-Go
We should make spending illegal. That would make people want to spend money. If they don't have the money, they suck a dick until they have the money. Then they go to JC Penny. Something happens. Recovery.
/Keynesian
It was very timely too yesterday with the White House news "template" as we had Obama stating we really need tourism to boost the economy in the US, well yeah because we are broke and don't have the money to spend. The timing to talk about how wonderful tourism is couldn't have been worse and it's that group running the White House communication efforts today putting information out that functions like a template and I wonder when Obama himself might look at it and wonder what's wrong as it doesn't look good unless you just want to be a complete lame duck and do nothing.
http://ducknetweb.blogspot.com/2014/03/virtual-worlds-real-world-we-have...
It' that case of "The Grays" with focusing on virtual instead of real world values. It's all we are anymore is a bunch of "Stat Rats" and it's catching up. Sure we need statistics and good numbers as guidance so I'm not discounting that, but rather the over reliance of such when you are in the "people" business and the VA should be a big warning to all of us. Now the greed of the markets and methodologies have traveled too far. How long are we going to keep fooling ourselves with quantitated justifications for things that are just not true.
VA Crisis Should Be A Huge Wake Up Call , We Have Turned Into a Nation of “Stat Rats”, Losing Touch With the “Real” World As Virtual Values Confuse, Collide and Wreak Havoc As Models & Formulas Fail
MedicalQuack Oh the @WhiteHouse news template again "America's Great Outdoors" & images from the Dept of the Interior? Huh?
MedicalQuack Weird timing-@WhiteHouse Tweet today talking about tourism boosting our economy? I guess we need it we as US consumers are broke
When obozo speaks, I feel a 'little puke' coming on. Too bad it won't improve my holdings values.
We are still buying. Seed, ammo, chicken feed and bulk foods like rice, beans and small farm raised beef and pork. Own small garden...
Anything else we buy used on black market, aka, Craig's list, etc. Do some trading for other items.
Furniture? Are you kidding me? Appliances? No. Next move is small solar (under 5k) off grid kit with batteries to power fridge and freezer. Prices are dropping on solar...finally.
Decentralization is the key...IMO. The other key to killing the banksters is the public bank model. THAT is what the oligarchy fears...decentralized money! AND decentralized monkees.
Somehow I doubt the aggregate demand of the 1% (who feed at the 1st tier of the crony-capitalism pig trough) combined with the parasitic draw of government politicians, contractors and employees (the 2nd tier) and the free $hit army (the 3rd tier) will magically make up for the decay in discretionary and non-discretionary spending of those who actually produce useful goods and services.
For those who will not kneel:
Take care of what you have, or go without.
When it is broke, fix it.
When it is torn, mend it.
Life is a team sport - help others and they will help you.
Eat only what you need for the day, save the rest for tomorrow.
Save for rainy days, stay debt free and only purchase productive assets that you need.
Keep an open mind, think for yourself, never stop learning.
This is so easy to fix. We just need to include illegal drug sales and prosistution as "retail sales". It would be a boon to our economy.
{S}
Don't worry about Lampert, he got plenty.
Luckily human life is not about consuming like a pig.
Luckily human life is not about consuming like a pig.
I haven't purchased anything that wasn't necessary for living since 2010. In 2010, I had $15,000 worth of credit card debt and lots of student loans. Today, I have around $200 credit card debt and a few student loans left over. Gym dues and a couple of other small bills go to the CC. It is paid off monthly, before interest hits. Nothing else goes on it, unless it's an emergency.
I second shopping at Goodwill, Salvation Army, etc. I found a great set of cups at GW the other day... Good, thick glass and stenciled with microbrewery logos. 12 Like-New glasses for $4. Would've paid 5 or 6 times that retail.
Subversive! You have brought our "economy" to its knees...
You are an enemy of the state. .gov has been disapatched to your location and you will be dropped off at your local re-education camp.
Freezers full of beef and the ammo lockers full too ,but I bought a box of 38spl anyway. Silly me big spender
Who has time to shop? I'm too busy putting my Stoo-Dent Loans to work picking up Hot Babes on campus and showing off my new Escalade and Shiny Blingy Things.
But don't worry, the consumer will surely be back NEXT quarter after the weather gets better!
The ongoing credit and spending collapse will make things ever worse for the retailers: when the going gets tough, the tough will go shop-lifting.
until there is regime change in Amerika, am not buying a dam thing!