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Tick, Tick, Tick

Tyler Durden's picture


Just a matter of time...



h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer


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Fri, 05/23/2014 - 11:56 | 4788784 G.O.O.D
G.O.O.D's picture

Race you to the bottom.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 11:58 | 4788793 THX 1178
THX 1178's picture

Fantastic Chart. Wonder wuts gunna happen...

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:00 | 4788803 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

'Don't let those two beams cross!  We'll be blown into another dimension.'

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:01 | 4788820 Slave
Slave's picture

So much higher than last time....yet it should be so much lower....


Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:23 | 4788917 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Can volume go negative?

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:25 | 4788934 Badabing
Badabing's picture

The financials have been toxic since 2008 and still are!

Without bailouts/QE at the expense of future generations of tax payers this shit would be over.

It’s a farce that its ether TPTB crashing, or us being in debt up to our eyeballs.

This chart is a joke! It looks like a reflection of mountains in a lake where I had a boating accident!

Fucking banks!

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:35 | 4788982 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

Ohhhhhhh, they're so definitely going to cross the streams.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:37 | 4788994 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

the fed will buy the spx futures if theres more than a tiny worries, they have unlimited bankroll and are 'all in'

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:53 | 4789041 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

Can they create real jobs at living wages?  Oh, they don't care, do they?  At some point though, the veneer's going to melt off of the real economy, and no amount of window dressing is going to prevent it...that uncertainty is what TPTB are a little afraid will the masses react when they (finally) realize what massive lies have been told by all these benevolent financial dictators..

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 13:02 | 4789064 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture



Can they create real jobs at living wages?

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 13:06 | 4789074 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

approaching record highs on ghost town volume today and yesterday.  Everybody knows what's coming and is just waiting quietly.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 13:28 | 4789141 MillionDollarBogus_
MillionDollarBogus_'s picture

I see Cramer's name under the chart.

What does Leonard the wonder monkey think..??

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 13:45 | 4789190 FOC 1183
FOC 1183's picture

Can't speak for Leonard, but everyone else thinks you're an idiot for missing the "Not" in front of it.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 14:18 | 4789303 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

The last low vol period lasted a while. The Fed will do everthing to assure that repeats. Damn it! Hurry up and crash!

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 16:42 | 4789727 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

You beat me to that point.

If you look back at the daily or weekly for SPX & VIX, you will see that the SPX drifted up for roughly 12 months after the VIX reached this level before the SPX finally imploded. 

That is a long time to hold a short position!

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 17:42 | 4789848 Flux
Flux's picture

You guys are still pining away for your little market crash?


Well, good luck!


Fri, 05/23/2014 - 17:56 | 4789887 saints51
saints51's picture

How's satan treating you?

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 21:01 | 4790211 old naughty
old naughty's picture

"What does Leonard the wonder monkey think..??"

All according to plan...

at least what Rosae Crucis stated in the GGS

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 22:21 | 4790416 willwork4food
willwork4food's picture

I gave Flux a + for likely being right. Look dudes, since '08 we have had bailouts, obvious PM manipulations and bonus rights to the 1%'ers up the ass. We live in a new world. The only thing that is going to crash the market is if they allow it to crash-which they will when the time is right, but not soon. Maybe next year?

OK...go ahead and trash me.

Sun, 05/25/2014 - 02:32 | 4792757 Glasater55
Glasater55's picture

It'll only crash when and if an R becomes prez. I'd bet on that.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 20:54 | 4790198 SILVERGEDDON

Lack of life experience, there, Fluxie.

Time to load yourself into the flux capacitor.

Or, go flux yourself. 

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 21:20 | 4790265 prains
prains's picture



when you get a boner do you pass out? from your comment it's obvious you dont possess enough blood to run all your organs when you have a thought, you can't screw, vise versa

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 02:27 | 4790740 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Well, I'm down $2,000 on my new short on the S&P500; waiting for Monday; but if the stiuation doesn't improve I'll just have to count it as an "experience".

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 13:40 | 4789173 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

Allow me to rephrase - can they efficiently/effectively create real jobs at living wages...?

A manipulated market will never do that as effectively as a (more) free market.  Of course, for TPTB 'jobs' are a means of parsing out rewards to control the masses and to maintain votes and otherwise maintain control (.gov does this endlessly), and perhaps a way to get their stuff done (lawns mowed, waiters to bring them food and drink...etc.)  There is no higher vision of work/jobs for them than that.  The rest of us are simply chattel and debt slaves..., and of course publicly, they're doing 'God's work.'  Sickening to compare the reality with the rhetoric, isn't it?

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 16:45 | 4789735 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

it's not that "they can't" but "they haven't." and that's the problem.

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 03:41 | 4790811 Seer
Seer's picture

Exactly.  It's just not possible.  Less resources and more people = smaller pie slices.  Smaller pie slices means that large ticket items, which tend to provide for the higher incomes, are at serious risk: "economies of scale in reverse."  Everything points to contraction; and nothing points to expansion.

TPTB can never say we're fucked.  The number 1 job has always been to sell the image, to motivate people to do their bidding.  Cheerleading chants are never negative.  And given that people are all conditioned for this they wait... they wait for the "turn-around," which will never come.

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 10:11 | 4791098 swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

Whether or not it's possible, the fact is they don't want to create better jobs. Increasing wages is about the only thing that could spike "inflation," since the things that are increasing in price aren't counted in "inflation" statistics. If people's income increased, there would be pressure to increase interest rates.  That would blow up trillions of dollars in derivatives, set up because the insiders know the fix is in and they have successfully merged the state and corporate balance sheets to prop up the current finance system.  Of course, the weight of the carrying costs of the financialization of the entire economy will eventually pull it all down, but that drag can still be papered over by manipulation and fudging of statistics.  Far more advantageous at present to keep up the extraction, tomorrow be damned.

So the only way to get a sustainable job is to figure out how to outsource and incorporate yourself.  That requires an ability to analytically understand your own skills and where you fit into the overall profit picture, and by no coincidence, most Americans don't have that level of understanding of themselves and their place in the economy.  They cling to their shrinking paychecks, dwindling benefits, deteriorating working conditions and solvency, because they need the "Security."

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:52 | 4789038 pelican
pelican's picture

Overheard in Washington this morning


"Should we print faster"


"What else can we do?"

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 16:59 | 4789764 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

Create war.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 17:09 | 4789783 Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture


Fri, 05/23/2014 - 18:12 | 4789918 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

You mean "lose a war"(s).

I can safely say I was last guy who won one (for the USA) actually. (Operation Restore Democracy...still fighting that one apparently. No I won't ask for anyone's vote. Acclamation is accepted however.)

My Uncle who survived the Battle of the Bulge only ever said one thing about it: "never fire your weapon otherwise they'll shoot back. And then you end up dead."

I took his advice and survived.

I did regularly fire my weapon in training...and yes I came within millimeters of paying the ultimate price for that. (H/t to Army Surgeons. Best doctors since 1861...and will remain so until 2061 it would appear.)

The best fights are the ones you walk away from folks. I wish all those who keep getting off on the real deal. Guess what...take that walk past the eternal flame and take a good hard look at the one slave revolt that succeeded.

Yep...those are all white people.

Still was when I was there too.

Hopefully times have changed (my first sergeant was Jamaican...won't repeat what they said of him when he first reported for duty..suffice to say that unit hasn't changed one bit as well. And yes..."they're somewhere north of Kiev and loving it. South of Utah from what I hear as well.)

Time for the FridayFunnies so remember "it ain't Memorial Day if you're not dying with a smile on your face!"

Oh, and "screw you supply Sergeant(s)." War ain't a matter of logistics but gettin in the other phuckers face and ripping it clear off. Let's see how your bully boys get off when staring down a colt/sauer 7mm magnum from over a thousand meters and your buddy's brain matter is all over your face.

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 03:47 | 4790820 Seer
Seer's picture

Only defensive wars are "won."

Everything else centers around stealing (resources).

War Is A Racket - Smedley Butler (who stated that he was no more than a hitman for the likes of United Fruit)

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 02:31 | 4790746 F-X
F-X's picture

No one can afford it any more. 

John Kerry after having his Syrian war turned down: "US beginning to behave like a poor nation."

Everyone's used up all their ammo keeping the banks in the money. They might as well have fought a war when you look at all the debt,

Not just the US.

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 03:30 | 4790789 beegle
beegle's picture

got that right ... since they strted tapering ... coup in ukreine , coup in thailand , terrorist attacks in china , revolts in vietnam ... , Just before Syria .... just to name a few ... all good for the buck , o maybe not so good 

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 03:49 | 4790823 Seer
Seer's picture

Good catch.

Since all wars are about resources, and it's resource shortages that are the cause of the inability to "grow," and since QE was all about faking growth, yes, wars will be the means...

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 14:23 | 4791528 mt paul
mt paul's picture

rumor has it at the fed machine shop

they just got  the work order

to fabricate new gears for the presses

looking to be 17.5% increase in the print speed.

bids are out for a faster drying ink too.

long rag fiber paper

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:59 | 4789051 GotNuttin'todo
GotNuttin'todo's picture

Tick...Tick...Tick...Poor...Poorer...Poorest. I was going to bet the farm but I have no farm left and unlike Gartman I don't have another to pull out of my hat.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 17:40 | 4789840 Zadok
Zadok's picture

...pull out of my ASS-hat...

Correction completed.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 20:19 | 4790149 DerdyBulls
DerdyBulls's picture

Why is this chart important?

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 03:50 | 4790825 Seer
Seer's picture

BECAUSE!  Colors are: Red, White and Blue, and it's Memorial Day coming up!  Sheesh, get with it!

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 18:46 | 4789971 TruthTalker
TruthTalker's picture

Now the traitor in chief is going to bail out the insurance companies for billions of dollars

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 20:58 | 4790205 SILVERGEDDON

Gooberment been giving Big Corporate the USD paper enema for several years now. 

When it finally takes hold, run for the hills, fellahs, 'cause there is gonna be shit everywhere. 

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:28 | 4788944 gh0atrider
gh0atrider's picture

nature abhors a vacuum

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 23:33 | 4790549 mt paul
mt paul's picture

so did ex wife #3

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:33 | 4788971 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

@Pladizow; You might be on the wrong thread.  This thread is talking about volatility, not volume, but you raise an interesting question.  What happens when volatility goes negative?  That requires special math

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:48 | 4789018 rubiconsolutions
rubiconsolutions's picture

"What happens when volatility goes negative?  That requires special math"

Which is exactly why they invented Common Core math.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 21:11 | 4790234 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

we are so screwwd...

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 21:59 | 4790359 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

When our kid was in the fifth or sixth grade, she started learning how to multiply and divide mixed numbers (eg, 4 and a third divided by 2 and a half).  I had to drive her to school every morning (25 mins or so) and for a couple of months I made her do those calculations in her head for 10 - 15 mins, she got good at it.

But, she now hates math!


ZerOhead, your point is correct.  Swirling down the drain...

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 14:28 | 4791536 mt paul
mt paul's picture


of screw drivers...

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:48 | 4789021 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

you can't have one without the other. low volatility AND low volume is "whispering death." you will see volume pickup if we start getting dramatic moves downward. the biggest mistake a policy maker can make is to equate the equity space with real money. this is why borrowing must be contained (as it wasn't going into the middle of last year.) more importantly is the never ending quest for "yield" without doing your homework.

what we need...and haven't had in more than a INCOME..not "yield." as Washington DC discovered...but still never learned from as they bought the whole bullshit Greenspan lie that "equities are the economy!" that LEVERAGE is what Wall Street wants, not "assets" (real or perceived.) As long as they can maximize the borrowing regime "then the crash is Washington DC's problem not Wall Streets."

And that's how you get trillion dollar deficits with no inflation!

For a primer read the book "the Confidence Game" about the Latin American debt crisis. This is probably the greatest bailout in history (Brady Bonds) which no one has ever heard of...and it made the Treasury a ton of money. But at the same time "it's not like taxes or spending ever went down."

And today of course we had a 600 billion defense budget that passed. The veto threat is an empty one btw. Believe me you don't want to dig down to see what exactly you get for 600 billion. Certainly not an economic recovery.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:51 | 4789031 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

Hell, they've probably already invented the 'new math' to take care of that eventuality:  inverse Qeuigernomoneyty.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 13:11 | 4789091 GotNuttin'todo
GotNuttin'todo's picture

That's the new math taught in schools under Obomunnism. You work your ass off and get an "A". The kid over there does diddly squat and also gets an "A". There....we all get "A's". Then how come we're all so fucking stupid?

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 13:44 | 4789185 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

"The kid over there does diddly squat and also gets an "A"."

And by the Obamunism fairness doctrine, that kid deserves to have as many resources as you do, from cradle to grave, though he/she continues to do diddly squat, and though you continue to work your ass off!  Welcome to the USS of A!!

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 16:50 | 4789744 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

not with oil at well over a hundred bucks a barrel and natural gas well north of 4.

coal prices have collapsed ironically enough. lets' see...that would be the States of Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky, Illinois, Wyoming and Arizona. Did I miss any?

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 17:11 | 4789787 cossack55
cossack55's picture


Fri, 05/23/2014 - 18:15 | 4789924 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Where's a Colimbian Drug Lord when you need one.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 18:56 | 4789994 Flagit
Flagit's picture

In a meeting with HSBC.

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 10:35 | 4791101 Dakota Kid
Dakota Kid's picture
  1. In 2013, the five largest coal producing states, with production in million short tons, and share of total U.S. coal production were:
    • Wyoming: 388.34, 39%
    • West Virginia: 112.91, 11%
    • Kentucky: 79.94, 8%
    • Pennsylvania: 54.21, 6%
    • Illinois: 52.12, 5%
Sat, 05/24/2014 - 03:57 | 4790828 Seer
Seer's picture

More Party Pussy shit...

The final decline started in 1971 when the US refused to admit it was bankrupt and severed the teatherings of the USD to gold.  From that point on it was all fake, all made up shit.  And when the entire system rests upon this utterly bullshit premise then can it really be a surprise about anything else not making sense?

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 18:22 | 4789938 FredFlintstone
FredFlintstone's picture

"i" imaginary numbers

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 18:58 | 4789998 isudas
isudas's picture

The charts measure volatility not volume.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:02 | 4788826 maskone909
maskone909's picture

yo tyler how about another usd/yen $spoos overlay?  cuz its friday

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:09 | 4788863 semperfi
semperfi's picture

where dogs & cats sleep together

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:47 | 4789016 DannoH
DannoH's picture

Total Protonic Reversal.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 13:46 | 4789192 JerseyJoe
JerseyJoe's picture

dontgoforit...  PRICELESS!  Thank you!

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:08 | 4788852 JRobby
JRobby's picture

bankruptcy and scandal and prison?  Nah! just keep pumping that press.


George Bailey: [yelling at Uncle Billy] Where's that money, you silly stupid old fool? Where's that money? Do you realize what this means? It means bankruptcy and scandal and prison! That's what it means! One of us is going to jail; well, it's not gonna be me!

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:15 | 4788884 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Did they have full control of the printing press in 2007?  Or were we still under a more market oriented system than today?  Once you take full control of the printing press, you can goal seek any number you want in the markets.  We have no idea how much money they are actually printing, they could be injecting a trillion a month all the while telling us they are tapering.  Remember, when things get bad we LIE.  Anyone audited the Fed lately?

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 13:55 | 4789221 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

That's right, I don't believe for a second their 85 billion a month or their tapering talk at all, who knows how much they're really shoveling in probably half a trillion a month!

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 19:59 | 4790112 813kml
813kml's picture

Very true, that's why the Dow is no longer an indicator of the health of the US economy.  It's all for show, as long as the sheeple see the stawks market going up, up, up they will continue to think that all is well.  The FED is giving it all she's got to keep this balloon inflated, when it finally pops it will be the end of the end.

Then TPTB can blame it on China.  Or Russia.  Or both.

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 02:36 | 4790752 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Or the Glo-Bull Warming; don't forget the Glo-Bull warming.

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 05:24 | 4790885 HamFistedIdiot
HamFistedIdiot's picture

"Glo-Bull Warming". LOL. Thanks for that.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 15:21 | 4789501 SDShack
SDShack's picture

Exactly right. I have said it for months. The sociopathic bankers have devised the game so the worlds CB's corner the bond market. Once they defacto control 51% of the bond market, the bond vigilantez are neutralized. No more PIIGS, no more Cyprus. Any sovereign that unloads US treasuries (China, Russia), are mopped up by the Fed or Belgium. The enitre plan is to insure ZIRP forever so deficit spending continues (stimulus in their eyes) with free money to the banks so they can pump and dump real assets to fleece the middle class. Wealth redistribution from the masses to the elites, who with their printing presses, and control of the bond market, have a defacto perpetual ponzi scheme. A briliant plan that only sociopaths can devise and execute. It has worked for years, and wil continue to work unless some major external forces upsets the balance. That's why TPTB have totally pumped up the security state on steroids. NSA spying, IRS extortion, DHS and every other govt. agency stockpiling billions of rounds of ammo. They win unless there is revolution in the streets caused by the desparate starving masses, or WWIII.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 18:18 | 4789930 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Invading Russia is one thing (Napoleon and Hitler tried it all by their lonesome. Not true of the Crimean War however. That was a Franco/British alliance...a rarity indeed.)

Invading China is a while 'nother enchilada.

Hmmm "where to begin?"

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 04:00 | 4790832 Seer
Seer's picture

1971* - USD went off the gold standard- no backing means "completely made up"

* And for all the Party Pussies, this was before Obama, before even Bush.  Signed off by the greatest "not a crook" POTUS ever!

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:18 | 4788900 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

Gold 100, vix down to 0, unicorns everywhere, free living 

Free food, and free BJ's for eveyone

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:24 | 4788929 pods
pods's picture

On that last point, you're talking receiving, right?


Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:34 | 4788977 Spumoni
Spumoni's picture

It all depends on how many got in line ahead of the rest of us, right?

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 04:06 | 4790839 Seer
Seer's picture

Details are everything!

Reminds me of this joke:

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:36 | 4788983 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Groundhog Day

Is your edit button still available??

You're out on a flagpole.

It's very hard to resist..

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 06:47 | 4790947 JoeSoMD
JoeSoMD's picture

i'm sorry, can you explain the chart for me please? i'm new at this.

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 10:16 | 4791108 swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

I'm no expert either, but it seems to suggest that when Wall Street consensus is that it's a sure thing, take your money and head for the hills.

Implied Volatility seems to be a measure of consensus on the stability of markets going forward.  The chart shows that recent lows in Implied Volatility (in other words, when the overall market consensus is that things going forward are going to stay pretty much the same), line up pretty darned closely to market peaks, followed soon after by a crash.  By contrast, when the market consensus is that everything is going to hell, that seems to line up with a market bottom.

If I got that wrong, somebody please educate me.

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 17:29 | 4791842 giggler321
giggler321's picture

>>Fantastic Chart. Wonder wuts gunna happen...

I should imagine, they'll suddenly find flight MH370, just not where they were looking and it'll probably start a war with ohh, China or perhaps our partners, Russia - pure baseless speculation mind...

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 18:09 | 4789915 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture


Fri, 05/23/2014 - 22:01 | 4790367 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Just a quick media check from Market Watch; "one in four Americans is not saving for retirement"; (eg. buying stawks in their world). Would this have any relationship to the one in four who are on food stamps. The cognitive dissonance is getting extreme.

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 04:10 | 4790840 Seer
Seer's picture

The joke's on the other three.  Throughout human history, and for the majority of humans today, "retirement" is not an option.  "retirement" is just another means for the hucksters to suck money from you today, it's a PONZI.

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 00:38 | 4790638 Assetman
Assetman's picture

What people don't realize is that it took a full year of really low vols in 2005-06 before the dam on the SPX actually broke.

But given where we're already at in terms of margin debt, we might have a whole lot of investors jumping the gun on when the Fed's minions can't control implied volatility.  At some point, someone is going to want to front run the eventual rise in rates at the Fed window.

I'm gonna say that the race to the bottom is a 2015 event.

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 02:33 | 4790747 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

It's amazing what you can do with a printing press; I remember reading that they got the Stawks up %30,000 in Zimbabwe. Course, it didn't do anyone there any good; but it's interesting.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 11:58 | 4788792 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

chart porn? On a Friday????


Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:05 | 4788839 Mr.Sono
Mr.Sono's picture

hard on early in the morning, its sexxyyyy time..... bitchezzz


Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:24 | 4788915 Excursionist
Excursionist's picture

Porn?  Absolutely.

Rotate the chart 90 degrees counter-clockwise, and you'll see the Rabbit 2000 anal vibrator.

P.S. Anyone know what "standardized macro implied vol" is?  That's a new one for me..

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:28 | 4788947 11b40
11b40's picture

I'm not sure, but it sure looks scary!

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:32 | 4788969 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

I had the same question. Did the search, saw this, I kid you not:

"Using the Black-Scholes Option Pricing spreadsheet and Excel Goal Seek function."

Stopped right there.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 11:58 | 4788794 maskone909
maskone909's picture

pincher play on world destruction trade.  sweet

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:02 | 4788818 stutes33
stutes33's picture

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:24 | 4788925 what's that smell
what's that smell's picture

well said, grasshopper.

puny humans....HFT9000 cares nothing for your chart squiggles.

smells like a short squeeze to me (midget girlfriend?).

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 11:59 | 4788800 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

uhhhhh....a little help on explaining what 'macro implied vols' is...

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:24 | 4788844 Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

I think you are pretty much looking at rising volatility against the SPX (S&P500)(Post 2008 crash), generally speaking as volatility rises and coincides with rising market valuation (S&P500) it might indicate you are in a bubble that is about to burst and that we are entering a recession.

This isn't the actual volatility, its the implied volatility, or rather forward looking volatility.

So the markets are getting slowly LESS volatile as prices of equities are skyrocketing, until the rubber band snaps and volatility returns (sry I worded that bad before).

Probably means we will begin to see more wild swings and big dumps/crashes/burns.

Atleast that's what I see, I have no idea whats going on.

Maybe someone who knows wtf they are doing could chime in.


Pretty much, when you see VERY LOW VOLATILITY AND HIGH HIGH MARKET PRICES, it means we are going to crash and see crazy volatility LATER ON during a crash (in the future).

So you see in 2007~ Very low volatility AND HIGH PRICES in SP500, then BOOM WHAM SMACK the volatility returns and market crashes and we enter recession.

I think they are trying to show that volatility can be pent up by inflation, but it inevitably gets turned loose and markets snap back to reality.



This is what I see from the chart:


S&P is due for crash soon


One could theorize that such a trend could be cyclical and a result of central bank meddling (IE the pattern will repeat and repeat over and over as long as a central bank intervenes in the markets).

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:42 | 4788933 Quus Ant
Quus Ant's picture

The charts tell me the government IS the market.  Something we've know for a while. Crash? Maybe, but not necessarily so.  A command economy will experience inefficiencies as resources are misallocated, but the stock market won't be the tell.  Check the store shelf.  It might be looking a bit bare.  And check your car- it might be a pos.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 15:34 | 4789531 SDShack
SDShack's picture

Exactly right. Inefficencies lead to shortages, which lead to real pain and suffering of the masses, which leads to demontrations, which lead to crackdowns, which lead to desparation, which leads to revolution. The inefficiencies are all around us. Higher energy costs, shitty food at high prices, shitty roads and infrastructure with higher taxes, shitty healthcare at higher prices, shitty houses at higher prices, higher rents for shitty dwellings, higher prices for shitty tv, entertainment, communication, higher tuition for shitty education that only provides shitty jobs, higher prices for shitty appliances, electronics, clothes, consumer goods, etc, higher prices for shitty cars, the list goes on and on. The consumer breaking point is fast approaching. It's no wonder TPTB are desparate to distract the masses and provide them any kind of subsidy to keep the lid on. This is not going to end well for anyone. plan accordingly.

Sat, 05/24/2014 - 08:00 | 4790988 N57Mike
N57Mike's picture

+100 SDS and QS ...... That is so right on because the distortions are so bad you have to look it what's happening not what The PTB's are saying ...

Sort of like the biblical expression "you will know them by their deeds not by their words"

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 17:34 | 4789826 optimator
optimator's picture

FED will simply wire 9 billion a day to the primaries.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 14:28 | 4789350 Frostfan1
Frostfan1's picture

I think we're just supposed to be sheep and accept the chart, buy gold, buy guns and blame bankers.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 11:59 | 4788801 H. Perowne
H. Perowne's picture

The singularity approaches

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:01 | 4788817 Ivanovich
Ivanovich's picture

The singularity has been approaching for 5 years now.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:38 | 4788997 Spumoni
Spumoni's picture

The singularity has been approaching since the Big Bang. Angstroms? Lightyears? Time is the only difference, and it's linear. So ONE DAY, SHTF matey. When? Who knows? Who cares?

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 14:45 | 4789402 Quus Ant
Quus Ant's picture

The singularity(end) is a cultural construct.  Has nothing to do with big bangers, angstronomy or light yeartime.  It's a game we're playing with ourselves because, well, who knows why.  Self hate maybe.  It means nothing to anyone outside this culture; must seem like a psychosis.


Fri, 05/23/2014 - 18:41 | 4789961 Keyser
Keyser's picture

Psychosis, probably not... More like an ingrained genetic trait to win at all costs, even at the cost of civilization as a whole... Humans are not that far removed from swinging in the trees... Yes, we have nuclear power and what to we do with it, blow shit up and boil water to make electricity...


Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:00 | 4788802 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Fucking vapor ramping bitches.  Useless fucking paper-pushers have taken over the american "market".


No worries none of them have done any real work so they are probably pretty tender, that's good, because they should be the first thing we feed to the SNAP-babies when this shit blows up.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:05 | 4788840 G.O.O.D
G.O.O.D's picture

I would love to be a wandering nomad but the bastards keep dragging me back.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 17:51 | 4789871 Zadok
Zadok's picture

Why feed the SNAP-whales at all? Isn't that a piece of this puzzle already? It would take a while to work off all that blubber, however lack of water would be considerably half a week, tops.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:01 | 4788805 machineh
machineh's picture

Standardized Macro Implied Vol -- same as standardized VIX? 

Define your terms, please.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:00 | 4788807 Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

And when the mirror cracks?

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 17:53 | 4789880 Zadok
Zadok's picture

Make a shiv...kind of like the lemons and lemonade thing...

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:01 | 4788810 Ivanovich
Ivanovich's picture

The singularity has been approaching for 5 years now.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 13:15 | 4789106 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"this singularity has been approaching for over 100 years now.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:01 | 4788814 youngman
youngman's picture

If everyone would quit buying..just think how high this market could go...

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:02 | 4788815 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Pay no attention to that chart. Yellen's got your back. She's wearing her black outfit and ready to kick some reality ass.


Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:02 | 4788829 pound the vix
pound the vix's picture

Got it.  Buy SPX...and sell VIX... Done.

now which tesla to buy??? 

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 13:19 | 4789120 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

the one that will roast you into a medium well, acidic corpse

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:04 | 4788837 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture


Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:06 | 4788846 Dolus
Dolus's picture

Timing is a bitch because we could be at 2004 on that chart with three more years to go. 

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:08 | 4788853 kurzdump
kurzdump's picture

Wake me up when volatility turns negative.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:09 | 4788856 Comte d'herblay
Comte d'herblay's picture

I like it!  If we get another 666 this year, in the S & P, we can all then go long TZA with every thing we own,  sit back and watch our futures turn rosy red, buying every triple index fund and be rich like George Soros or Larry Fink.  From your keyboard to Yahweh's ears.

I might even be able to sneak into a social or permanent membership of the Concordia Club. Whoops, too late.



Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:08 | 4788857 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture



Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:09 | 4788859 semperfi
semperfi's picture

but its different this time

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:09 | 4788860 pound the vix
pound the vix's picture

did someone leave for the hamptons with the buy 100 shares spx button stuck down on their keyboard?

This market has not dipped all day

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 13:13 | 4789101 Hindenburg...Oh Man
Hindenburg...Oh Man's picture

maybe, but for damn sure the buy button for NASDAQ e-mini 100 futures is stuck. 

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:10 | 4788867 BrigstockBoy
BrigstockBoy's picture

If at first you don't succeed, try, try, try again...

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 17:31 | 4789821 optimator
optimator's picture

If you don't succeed at first - STOP, WHY MAKE A FOOL OUT OF YOURSELF TWICE IN A ROW.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:10 | 4788868 gdiamond22
gdiamond22's picture

Another comparison chart. I think we've exhausted every single scenario comparing this market to any market as it relates to whatever you want it to. The fact is no one believes this can go up, and that is why it is going up. Fundamentals are atrocious, geo-political concerns abound, brain-dead policitians, record cash on the side-lines doing nothing, etc. Not that I don't agree with the overall consensus that this market is beyond irrational, but thats what bubbles are made of and go on far longer than  anyone can imagine. Its a melt-up of epic proportions. SPX 2070 next stop. Its not about being right, its about making money.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:24 | 4788927 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I think you're supposed to buy low and sell high.

I DK, though - I'm not an investor.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 14:06 | 4789252 crazybob369
crazybob369's picture

Perhaps.  But what are you going to do when the music stops and you don't have a chair?  Ever try selling into a no-bid market?

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:12 | 4788869 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

I'd like to see that chart in weekly and daily windows.  Meanwhile back in the good old days we had people trading, now we have software. Do you think they trade alike?  Just askin'

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:15 | 4788883 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

Maybe one of the best (simple) articles ever on ZH! Very good!

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:15 | 4788886 Calculus99
Calculus99's picture

Quick question.

Who has the most thieves, lying scumbags, conmen and all around trash - the Hamptons (in the summer) or Alcatraz Island (when it was in operation)?

It's a tough one.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:20 | 4788905 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

I would say Greenwich by a mile. 

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:30 | 4788956 G.O.O.D
G.O.O.D's picture

I got robbed by a sweet old lady on a motorized cart. I didn't even see it comin'!

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 18:16 | 4789928 FredFlintstone
FredFlintstone's picture

I have never seen a sweet old lady on a motorized cart, only fat & ugly with a scowl that says fuck you, get out of my way I am special and entitled.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 13:11 | 4789092 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

Scarsdale, NY

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:24 | 4788926 G.O.O.D
G.O.O.D's picture

176 million + views? for that shit? omg we are totally toast. There is no hope, moar shots doc.

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 13:16 | 4789111 Bear
Bear's picture

We are on a Wrecking Ball

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:18 | 4788898 Chippewa Partners
Chippewa Partners's picture

Can we get Gartman to interpret that?

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:35 | 4788973 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

Gartman predicted an imminent correction-  about +25 handles ago,

Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:21 | 4788906 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

Just showed to Ben and Alan.  Not seeing any pattern here...


Fri, 05/23/2014 - 12:23 | 4788918 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

ah fawk, my finger smells.

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