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Just a matter of time...
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Race you to the bottom.
Fantastic Chart. Wonder wuts gunna happen...
'Don't let those two beams cross! We'll be blown into another dimension.'
So much higher than last time....yet it should be so much lower....
Can volume go negative?
The financials have been toxic since 2008 and still are!
Without bailouts/QE at the expense of future generations of tax payers this shit would be over.
It’s a farce that its ether TPTB crashing, or us being in debt up to our eyeballs.
This chart is a joke! It looks like a reflection of mountains in a lake where I had a boating accident!
Ohhhhhhh, they're so definitely going to cross the streams.
the fed will buy the spx futures if theres more than a tiny correction.....no worries, they have unlimited bankroll and are 'all in'
Can they create real jobs at living wages? Oh, they don't care, do they? At some point though, the veneer's going to melt off of the real economy, and no amount of window dressing is going to prevent it...that uncertainty is what TPTB are a little afraid of...how will the masses react when they (finally) realize what massive lies have been told by all these benevolent financial dictators..
Can they create real jobs at living wages?
Can they create real jobs at living wages?
approaching record highs on ghost town volume today and yesterday. Everybody knows what's coming and is just waiting quietly.
I see Cramer's name under the chart.
What does Leonard the wonder monkey think..??
Can't speak for Leonard, but everyone else thinks you're an idiot for missing the "Not" in front of it.
The last low vol period lasted a while. The Fed will do everthing to assure that repeats. Damn it! Hurry up and crash!
You beat me to that point.
If you look back at the daily or weekly for SPX & VIX, you will see that the SPX drifted up for roughly 12 months after the VIX reached this level before the SPX finally imploded.
That is a long time to hold a short position!
You guys are still pining away for your little market crash?
Well, good luck!
How's satan treating you?
"What does Leonard the wonder monkey think..??"
All according to plan...
at least what Rosae Crucis stated in the GGS
I gave Flux a + for likely being right. Look dudes, since '08 we have had bailouts, obvious PM manipulations and bonus rights to the 1%'ers up the ass. We live in a new world. The only thing that is going to crash the market is if they allow it to crash-which they will when the time is right, but not soon. Maybe next year?
OK...go ahead and trash me.
It'll only crash when and if an R becomes prez. I'd bet on that.
Lack of life experience, there, Fluxie.
Time to load yourself into the flux capacitor.
Or, go flux yourself.
when you get a boner do you pass out? from your comment it's obvious you dont possess enough blood to run all your organs simultaneously.....so when you have a thought, you can't screw, vise versa
Well, I'm down $2,000 on my new short on the S&P500; waiting for Monday; but if the stiuation doesn't improve I'll just have to count it as an "experience".
Allow me to rephrase - can they efficiently/effectively create real jobs at living wages...?
A manipulated market will never do that as effectively as a (more) free market. Of course, for TPTB 'jobs' are a means of parsing out rewards to control the masses and to maintain votes and otherwise maintain control (.gov does this endlessly), and perhaps a way to get their stuff done (lawns mowed, waiters to bring them food and drink...etc.) There is no higher vision of work/jobs for them than that. The rest of us are simply chattel and debt slaves..., and of course publicly, they're doing 'God's work.' Sickening to compare the reality with the rhetoric, isn't it?
it's not that "they can't" but "they haven't." and that's the problem.
Exactly. It's just not possible. Less resources and more people = smaller pie slices. Smaller pie slices means that large ticket items, which tend to provide for the higher incomes, are at serious risk: "economies of scale in reverse." Everything points to contraction; and nothing points to expansion.
TPTB can never say we're fucked. The number 1 job has always been to sell the image, to motivate people to do their bidding. Cheerleading chants are never negative. And given that people are all conditioned for this they wait... they wait for the "turn-around," which will never come.
Whether or not it's possible, the fact is they don't want to create better jobs. Increasing wages is about the only thing that could spike "inflation," since the things that are increasing in price aren't counted in "inflation" statistics. If people's income increased, there would be pressure to increase interest rates. That would blow up trillions of dollars in derivatives, set up because the insiders know the fix is in and they have successfully merged the state and corporate balance sheets to prop up the current finance system. Of course, the weight of the carrying costs of the financialization of the entire economy will eventually pull it all down, but that drag can still be papered over by manipulation and fudging of statistics. Far more advantageous at present to keep up the extraction, tomorrow be damned.
So the only way to get a sustainable job is to figure out how to outsource and incorporate yourself. That requires an ability to analytically understand your own skills and where you fit into the overall profit picture, and by no coincidence, most Americans don't have that level of understanding of themselves and their place in the economy. They cling to their shrinking paychecks, dwindling benefits, deteriorating working conditions and solvency, because they need the "Security."
Overheard in Washington this morning
"Should we print faster"
"What else can we do?"
You mean "lose a war"(s).
I can safely say I was last guy who won one (for the USA) actually. (Operation Restore Democracy...still fighting that one apparently. No I won't ask for anyone's vote. Acclamation is accepted however.)
My Uncle who survived the Battle of the Bulge only ever said one thing about it: "never fire your weapon otherwise they'll shoot back. And then you end up dead."
I took his advice and survived.
I did regularly fire my weapon in training...and yes I came within millimeters of paying the ultimate price for that. (H/t to Army Surgeons. Best doctors since 1861...and will remain so until 2061 it would appear.)
The best fights are the ones you walk away from folks. I wish all those who keep getting off on the real deal. Guess what...take that walk past the eternal flame and take a good hard look at the one slave revolt that succeeded.
Yep...those are all white people.
Still was when I was there too.
Hopefully times have changed (my first sergeant was Jamaican...won't repeat what they said of him when he first reported for duty..suffice to say that unit hasn't changed one bit as well. And yes..."they're somewhere north of Kiev and loving it. South of Utah from what I hear as well.)
Time for the FridayFunnies so remember "it ain't Memorial Day if you're not dying with a smile on your face!"
Oh, and "screw you supply Sergeant(s)." War ain't a matter of logistics but gettin in the other phuckers face and ripping it clear off. Let's see how your bully boys get off when staring down a colt/sauer 7mm magnum from over a thousand meters and your buddy's brain matter is all over your face.
Only defensive wars are "won."
Everything else centers around stealing (resources).
War Is A Racket - Smedley Butler (who stated that he was no more than a hitman for the likes of United Fruit)
No one can afford it any more.
John Kerry after having his Syrian war turned down: "US beginning to behave like a poor nation."
Everyone's used up all their ammo keeping the banks in the money. They might as well have fought a war when you look at all the debt,
Not just the US.
got that right ... since they strted tapering ... coup in ukreine , coup in thailand , terrorist attacks in china , revolts in vietnam ... , Just before Syria .... just to name a few ... all good for the buck , o maybe not so good
Since all wars are about resources, and it's resource shortages that are the cause of the inability to "grow," and since QE was all about faking growth, yes, wars will be the means...
rumor has it at the fed machine shop
they just got the work order
to fabricate new gears for the presses
looking to be 17.5% increase in the print speed.
bids are out for a faster drying ink too.
long rag fiber paper
Tick...Tick...Tick...Poor...Poorer...Poorest. I was going to bet the farm but I have no farm left and unlike Gartman I don't have another to pull out of my hat.
...pull out of my ASS-hat...
Why is this chart important?
BECAUSE! Colors are: Red, White and Blue, and it's Memorial Day coming up! Sheesh, get with it!
Now the traitor in chief is going to bail out the insurance companies for billions of dollars
Gooberment been giving Big Corporate the USD paper enema for several years now.
When it finally takes hold, run for the hills, fellahs, 'cause there is gonna be shit everywhere.
nature abhors a vacuum
so did ex wife #3
@Pladizow; You might be on the wrong thread. This thread is talking about volatility, not volume, but you raise an interesting question. What happens when volatility goes negative? That requires special math
"What happens when volatility goes negative? That requires special math"
Which is exactly why they invented Common Core math.
we are so screwwd...
When our kid was in the fifth or sixth grade, she started learning how to multiply and divide mixed numbers (eg, 4 and a third divided by 2 and a half). I had to drive her to school every morning (25 mins or so) and for a couple of months I made her do those calculations in her head for 10 - 15 mins, she got good at it.
But, she now hates math!
ZerOhead, your point is correct. Swirling down the drain...
of screw drivers...
you can't have one without the other. low volatility AND low volume is "whispering death." you will see volume pickup if we start getting dramatic moves downward. the biggest mistake a policy maker can make is to equate the equity space with real money. this is why borrowing must be contained (as it wasn't going into the middle of last year.) more importantly is the never ending quest for "yield" without doing your homework.
what we need...and haven't had in more than a decade...is INCOME..not "yield." as Washington DC discovered...but still never learned from as they bought the whole bullshit Greenspan lie that "equities are the economy!"....is that LEVERAGE is what Wall Street wants, not "assets" (real or perceived.) As long as they can maximize the borrowing regime "then the crash is Washington DC's problem not Wall Streets."
And that's how you get trillion dollar deficits with no inflation!
For a primer read the book "the Confidence Game" about the Latin American debt crisis. This is probably the greatest bailout in history (Brady Bonds) which no one has ever heard of...and it made the Treasury a ton of money. But at the same time "it's not like taxes or spending ever went down."
And today of course we had a 600 billion defense budget that passed. The veto threat is an empty one btw. Believe me you don't want to dig down to see what exactly you get for 600 billion. Certainly not an economic recovery.
Hell, they've probably already invented the 'new math' to take care of that eventuality: inverse Qeuigernomoneyty.
That's the new math taught in schools under Obomunnism. You work your ass off and get an "A". The kid over there does diddly squat and also gets an "A". There....we all get "A's". Then how come we're all so fucking stupid?
"The kid over there does diddly squat and also gets an "A"."
And by the Obamunism fairness doctrine, that kid deserves to have as many resources as you do, from cradle to grave, though he/she continues to do diddly squat, and though you continue to work your ass off! Welcome to the USS of A!!
not with oil at well over a hundred bucks a barrel and natural gas well north of 4.
coal prices have collapsed ironically enough. lets' see...that would be the States of Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky, Illinois, Wyoming and Arizona. Did I miss any?
Where's a Colimbian Drug Lord when you need one.
In a meeting with HSBC.
More Party Pussy shit...
The final decline started in 1971 when the US refused to admit it was bankrupt and severed the teatherings of the USD to gold. From that point on it was all fake, all made up shit. And when the entire system rests upon this utterly bullshit premise then can it really be a surprise about anything else not making sense?
"i" imaginary numbers
The charts measure volatility not volume.
yo tyler how about another usd/yen $spoos overlay? cuz its friday
where dogs & cats sleep together
Total Protonic Reversal.
dontgoforit... PRICELESS! Thank you!
bankruptcy and scandal and prison? Nah! just keep pumping that press.
George Bailey: [yelling at Uncle Billy] Where's that money, you silly stupid old fool? Where's that money? Do you realize what this means? It means bankruptcy and scandal and prison! That's what it means! One of us is going to jail; well, it's not gonna be me!
Did they have full control of the printing press in 2007? Or were we still under a more market oriented system than today? Once you take full control of the printing press, you can goal seek any number you want in the markets. We have no idea how much money they are actually printing, they could be injecting a trillion a month all the while telling us they are tapering. Remember, when things get bad we LIE. Anyone audited the Fed lately?
That's right, I don't believe for a second their 85 billion a month or their tapering talk at all, who knows how much they're really shoveling in probably half a trillion a month!
Very true, that's why the Dow is no longer an indicator of the health of the US economy. It's all for show, as long as the sheeple see the stawks market going up, up, up they will continue to think that all is well. The FED is giving it all she's got to keep this balloon inflated, when it finally pops it will be the end of the end.
Then TPTB can blame it on China. Or Russia. Or both.
Or the Glo-Bull Warming; don't forget the Glo-Bull warming.
"Glo-Bull Warming". LOL. Thanks for that.
Exactly right. I have said it for months. The sociopathic bankers have devised the game so the worlds CB's corner the bond market. Once they defacto control 51% of the bond market, the bond vigilantez are neutralized. No more PIIGS, no more Cyprus. Any sovereign that unloads US treasuries (China, Russia), are mopped up by the Fed or Belgium. The enitre plan is to insure ZIRP forever so deficit spending continues (stimulus in their eyes) with free money to the banks so they can pump and dump real assets to fleece the middle class. Wealth redistribution from the masses to the elites, who with their printing presses, and control of the bond market, have a defacto perpetual ponzi scheme. A briliant plan that only sociopaths can devise and execute. It has worked for years, and wil continue to work unless some major external forces upsets the balance. That's why TPTB have totally pumped up the security state on steroids. NSA spying, IRS extortion, DHS and every other govt. agency stockpiling billions of rounds of ammo. They win unless there is revolution in the streets caused by the desparate starving masses, or WWIII.
Invading Russia is one thing (Napoleon and Hitler tried it all by their lonesome. Not true of the Crimean War however. That was a Franco/British alliance...a rarity indeed.)
Invading China is a while 'nother enchilada.
Hmmm "where to begin?"
1971* - USD went off the gold standard- no backing means "completely made up"
* And for all the Party Pussies, this was before Obama, before even Bush. Signed off by the greatest "not a crook" POTUS ever!
Gold 100, vix down to 0, unicorns everywhere, free living
Free food, and free BJ's for eveyone
On that last point, you're talking receiving, right?
It all depends on how many got in line ahead of the rest of us, right?
Details are everything!
Reminds me of this joke:
Is your edit button still available??
You're out on a flagpole.
It's very hard to resist..
i'm sorry, can you explain the chart for me please? i'm new at this.
I'm no expert either, but it seems to suggest that when Wall Street consensus is that it's a sure thing, take your money and head for the hills.
Implied Volatility seems to be a measure of consensus on the stability of markets going forward. The chart shows that recent lows in Implied Volatility (in other words, when the overall market consensus is that things going forward are going to stay pretty much the same), line up pretty darned closely to market peaks, followed soon after by a crash. By contrast, when the market consensus is that everything is going to hell, that seems to line up with a market bottom.
If I got that wrong, somebody please educate me.
>>Fantastic Chart. Wonder wuts gunna happen...
I should imagine, they'll suddenly find flight MH370, just not where they were looking and it'll probably start a war with ohh, China or perhaps our partners, Russia - pure baseless speculation mind...
Just a quick media check from Market Watch; "one in four Americans is not saving for retirement"; (eg. buying stawks in their world). Would this have any relationship to the one in four who are on food stamps. The cognitive dissonance is getting extreme.
The joke's on the other three. Throughout human history, and for the majority of humans today, "retirement" is not an option. "retirement" is just another means for the hucksters to suck money from you today, it's a PONZI.
What people don't realize is that it took a full year of really low vols in 2005-06 before the dam on the SPX actually broke.
But given where we're already at in terms of margin debt, we might have a whole lot of investors jumping the gun on when the Fed's minions can't control implied volatility. At some point, someone is going to want to front run the eventual rise in rates at the Fed window.
I'm gonna say that the race to the bottom is a 2015 event.
It's amazing what you can do with a printing press; I remember reading that they got the Stawks up %30,000 in Zimbabwe. Course, it didn't do anyone there any good; but it's interesting.
chart porn? On a Friday????
hard on early in the morning, its sexxyyyy time..... bitchezzz
Rotate the chart 90 degrees counter-clockwise, and you'll see the Rabbit 2000 anal vibrator.
P.S. Anyone know what "standardized macro implied vol" is? That's a new one for me..
I'm not sure, but it sure looks scary!
I had the same question. Did the search, saw this, I kid you not:
"Using the Black-Scholes Option Pricing spreadsheet and Excel Goal Seek function."
Stopped right there.
It's QEuignomoneyty I tell ya'.
Yeah, that, exactly...
Just good photography for the strong-end (not weak-end)...
pincher play on world destruction trade. sweet
well said, grasshopper.
puny humans....HFT9000 cares nothing for your chart squiggles.
smells like a short squeeze to me (midget girlfriend?).
uhhhhh....a little help on explaining what 'macro implied vols' is...
I think you are pretty much looking at rising volatility against the SPX (S&P500)(Post 2008 crash), generally speaking as volatility rises and coincides with rising market valuation (S&P500) it might indicate you are in a bubble that is about to burst and that we are entering a recession.
This isn't the actual volatility, its the implied volatility, or rather forward looking volatility.
So the markets are getting slowly LESS volatile as prices of equities are skyrocketing, until the rubber band snaps and volatility returns (sry I worded that bad before).
Probably means we will begin to see more wild swings and big dumps/crashes/burns.
Atleast that's what I see, I have no idea whats going on.
Maybe someone who knows wtf they are doing could chime in.
Pretty much, when you see VERY LOW VOLATILITY AND HIGH HIGH MARKET PRICES, it means we are going to crash and see crazy volatility LATER ON during a crash (in the future).
So you see in 2007~ Very low volatility AND HIGH PRICES in SP500, then BOOM WHAM SMACK the volatility returns and market crashes and we enter recession.
I think they are trying to show that volatility can be pent up by inflation, but it inevitably gets turned loose and markets snap back to reality.
This is what I see from the chart:
S&P is due for crash soon™
One could theorize that such a trend could be cyclical and a result of central bank meddling (IE the pattern will repeat and repeat over and over as long as a central bank intervenes in the markets).
The charts tell me the government IS the market. Something we've know for a while. Crash? Maybe, but not necessarily so. A command economy will experience inefficiencies as resources are misallocated, but the stock market won't be the tell. Check the store shelf. It might be looking a bit bare. And check your car- it might be a pos.
Exactly right. Inefficencies lead to shortages, which lead to real pain and suffering of the masses, which leads to demontrations, which lead to crackdowns, which lead to desparation, which leads to revolution. The inefficiencies are all around us. Higher energy costs, shitty food at high prices, shitty roads and infrastructure with higher taxes, shitty healthcare at higher prices, shitty houses at higher prices, higher rents for shitty dwellings, higher prices for shitty tv, entertainment, communication, higher tuition for shitty education that only provides shitty jobs, higher prices for shitty appliances, electronics, clothes, consumer goods, etc, higher prices for shitty cars, the list goes on and on. The consumer breaking point is fast approaching. It's no wonder TPTB are desparate to distract the masses and provide them any kind of subsidy to keep the lid on. This is not going to end well for anyone. plan accordingly.
+100 SDS and QS ...... That is so right on because the distortions are so bad you have to look it what's happening not what The PTB's are saying ...
Sort of like the biblical expression "you will know them by their deeds not by their words"
FED will simply wire 9 billion a day to the primaries.
I think we're just supposed to be sheep and accept the chart, buy gold, buy guns and blame bankers.
The singularity approaches
The singularity has been approaching for 5 years now.
The singularity has been approaching since the Big Bang. Angstroms? Lightyears? Time is the only difference, and it's linear. So ONE DAY, SHTF matey. When? Who knows? Who cares?
The singularity(end) is a cultural construct. Has nothing to do with big bangers, angstronomy or light yeartime. It's a game we're playing with ourselves because, well, who knows why. Self hate maybe. It means nothing to anyone outside this culture; must seem like a psychosis.
Psychosis, probably not... More like an ingrained genetic trait to win at all costs, even at the cost of civilization as a whole... Humans are not that far removed from swinging in the trees... Yes, we have nuclear power and what to we do with it, blow shit up and boil water to make electricity...
Fucking vapor ramping bitches. Useless fucking paper-pushers have taken over the american "market".
No worries none of them have done any real work so they are probably pretty tender, that's good, because they should be the first thing we feed to the SNAP-babies when this shit blows up.
I would love to be a wandering nomad but the bastards keep dragging me back.
Why feed the SNAP-whales at all? Isn't that a piece of this puzzle already? It would take a while to work off all that blubber, however lack of water would be considerably faster...like half a week, tops.
Standardized Macro Implied Vol -- same as standardized VIX?
Define your terms, please.
And when the mirror cracks?
Make a shiv...kind of like the lemons and lemonade thing...
"this singularity has been approaching for over 100 years now.
If everyone would quit buying..just think how high this market could go...
Pay no attention to that chart. Yellen's got your back. She's wearing her black outfit and ready to kick some reality ass.
Got it. Buy SPX...and sell VIX... Done.
now which tesla to buy???
the one that will roast you into a medium well, acidic corpse
Timing is a bitch because we could be at 2004 on that chart with three more years to go.
Wake me up when volatility turns negative.
I like it! If we get another 666 this year, in the S & P, we can all then go long TZA with every thing we own, sit back and watch our futures turn rosy red, buying every triple index fund and be rich like George Soros or Larry Fink. From your keyboard to Yahweh's ears.
I might even be able to sneak into a social or permanent membership of the Concordia Club. Whoops, too late.
but its different this time
did someone leave for the hamptons with the buy 100 shares spx button stuck down on their keyboard?
This market has not dipped all day
maybe, but for damn sure the buy button for NASDAQ e-mini 100 futures is stuck.
If at first you don't succeed, try, try, try again...
If you don't succeed at first - STOP, WHY MAKE A FOOL OUT OF YOURSELF TWICE IN A ROW.
Another comparison chart. I think we've exhausted every single scenario comparing this market to any market as it relates to whatever you want it to. The fact is no one believes this can go up, and that is why it is going up. Fundamentals are atrocious, geo-political concerns abound, brain-dead policitians, record cash on the side-lines doing nothing, etc. Not that I don't agree with the overall consensus that this market is beyond irrational, but thats what bubbles are made of and go on far longer than anyone can imagine. Its a melt-up of epic proportions. SPX 2070 next stop. Its not about being right, its about making money.
I think you're supposed to buy low and sell high.
I DK, though - I'm not an investor.
Perhaps. But what are you going to do when the music stops and you don't have a chair? Ever try selling into a no-bid market?
I'd like to see that chart in weekly and daily windows. Meanwhile back in the good old days we had people trading, now we have software. Do you think they trade alike? Just askin'
Maybe one of the best (simple) articles ever on ZH! Very good!
Who has the most thieves, lying scumbags, conmen and all around trash - the Hamptons (in the summer) or Alcatraz Island (when it was in operation)?
It's a tough one.
I would say Greenwich by a mile.
I got robbed by a sweet old lady on a motorized cart. I didn't even see it comin'!
I have never seen a sweet old lady on a motorized cart, only fat & ugly with a scowl that says fuck you, get out of my way I am special and entitled.
176 million + views? for that shit? omg we are totally toast. There is no hope, moar shots doc.
We are on a Wrecking Ball
Can we get Gartman to interpret that?
Gartman predicted an imminent correction- about +25 handles ago,
Gartman predicted an imminent correction- about +25 handles ago,
Just showed to Ben and Alan. Not seeing any pattern here...
ah fawk, my finger smells.
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