Exit Polls Show "Choco-King" Poroshenko Winning Ukraine Election As Expected (US Hardly Enthused)

Tyler Durden's picture

As was largely expected, Petro Poroshenko - the candy tycoon known as the "chocolate king" - has easily beaten Yulia Tymoshenko - nicknamed "gas princess" - to become Ukraine's next president according to exit polls:


Hope remains for stability in the nation as Poroshenko, as we noted here, is the most middle of the road - pro-Europe (but not too much) and most importantly believes Ukraine joining NATO "is probably not a good idea," which will likely disappoint the US. There has been violence in the East but it does not seem widespread enough to warrant any negative conclusions from Putin for now.





As we noted previously, Poroshenko is in the "middle"..


The next stape is, of course, whether Putin will accept these results. A factor that may impact Russia’s reaction to the presidential elections is the scale of hostility in eastern Ukraine. Depending on this factor, as well as the rate of participation (they are to some degree interrelated), we see the following scenarios:

Base case (65% probability): de facto, not de jure recognition – hostilities moderate towards the start of elections, rate of participation is relatively high in eastern Ukraine.


Optimistic scenario: de jure and de facto recognition (15%) in case of a significant de-escalation of military tension, progress in engaging the eastern representatives of pro-Russian forces in the peace process, relatively high rate of participation.


Pessimistic scenario: military escalation, eastern Ukraine boycotts elections; Russia’s meddling becomes significant (20% probability).

Turnout rates are reportedly high...

Ukrainians voted Sunday in a presidential election many hoped would steer the country back to stability, notching significant turnout figures despite shuttered polling stations across two rebel-held regions in the east.

but rumors of 'hackers' rigging the election are also spreading...

A group of hackers has been arrested in Kyiv with specialized equipment intended to rig the results of the Ukraine’s presidential election, according to Victor Yagun, deputy head of the Security Service of Ukraine, known as the SBU.

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ObamaDepression's picture

So are we still to believe that the CIA is behind all this when the wrong person wins?

I'm confused.

icanhasbailout's picture

what did you think the hackers were there for?

flacon's picture

Is this good for stawks, or good for stawks.... yes it's good for stawks. S&P 2000 by 10:00am Tuesday?

smlbizman's picture

do they use the paper ballots in the clear boxes? or did they go diebolt?...

strannick's picture

 I interpret " joining NATO might not be a good idea" to mean "I'll play ball with Putin. No wonder Putin was keen on elections and distancing himself from Donesk and Lhansk seperatists. Why take 2 provinces when you can have the whole country. Obama might just cgoke on that chess piece hes been chewing on. 

The Unknown Putin


Looney's picture

The next and last election might be Putin/Xi vs. Hecklary/Merkel. ;-)


COSMOS's picture

Ukraine wont give up Crimea...he says

LOL the only way they can go to Crimea without a visa is if they join Russia again like the old days.

His best bet is to federalize the constitution, put in a clause about staying neutral and never forming any military alliances.  Then he can get some good gas prices from Russia and he can welcome investments in from both Russia and the EU.  He can make visa free travel agreements with both countries and he can sit back and enjoy economic growth. Simple formula for success.

BlindMonkey's picture

Putin said he was not in favor of a divided Ukraine a few months ago. I assumed that meant he was playing for all of it.

PhilofOz's picture

The Unknown Putin



"Russians had to paid the Americans almost $1 billion dollars because they were mining and importing our oil." Why am I not surprised! No doubt this is a similar story in places like Iraq and Libya now.

Well I have a lot more respect for Putin than I ever had after watching this.

Rootin' for Putin's picture

The only way i could have more respect for Putin would be if he had a baby with Maggie Thatcher - that kid would have been a superhero or something.

FuzzyDunlop21's picture

Its a Tuesday, after a holiday which means low vol plus feel good holiday ramp, and growing instability. If we dont reach 1920 Id be shocked

Berspankme's picture

Everything is good for stawks. buy buy buy

Winston Churchill's picture

Good hackers or bad hackers rounded up ?
Remember who controls security,the neo nazi's.
I expect a tallied result completely different from the exit polls.The CIA has a lot invested.

strannick's picture

Yes, they put a lot of their drug money into getting this election. I wonder if we will be seeing exposes of this new Oligarchs decadent trappings. I guess it depends on how far he leans towards Russia.

caShOnlY's picture

what did you think the hackers were there for?

weren't these the same hackers seen exiting the state of maine, expeditiously, as soon as Ron Paul lost the primary there?

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

If you're easily confused, allow my 7th grader to help you out: "Just because the CIA was behind all this, does not mean that they still control the situation to the degree that they want or need".

Or, as an old British saying goes: "There's many a slip between the cup and the lip".

Looney's picture

... There's many a slip between the CUP and the LIP.

Well, it really depends on the CUP SIZE ;-)


MisterMousePotato's picture

I have wondered what that expression meant for nigh on 40 years. Maybe 45.

Like "You can't have your cake and eat it, too, Grasshopper," which my mother used to say to me. I would wonder, "What the fuck does that mean?"

Took me about 35 years to figure that one out.

Urban Roman's picture

If the goal was chaos, it has been a splendid moderate success. It has been hard to convince the Uke army to shoot at their own people.

DogOfSinope's picture

You guys seem to be confused at least since the presidential elections of 2000, when the "wrong" candidate won - but the "right" candidate became president.
So, it's about time you get some cold shower and large. warm, sweetened coffee. The rest of us would really appreciate some help, you know...

Soul Glow's picture

Gore was offered savior status per "Global Warming" and chose to bow out of a Presidency to attain such godlike status among his followers.  And like him Bush was popular in his own right - he got to bomb the shit out of brown people, which his constituants loved.

Lore's picture

Global Warming Religion and the Bush Dynasty are tentacles of the same creature.

Smegley Wanxalot's picture

Last time when the wrong guy won, the EUSSA violently overthrew the govt in Kiev, killing many people in the process and tearing up the country.  If it is determined in the shit-filled bowels of Brussels and DC that Poroshenko is the wrong guy, expect another violent overthrow.

Soul Glow's picture

And all the while Madaline Albright will pen articles for Time Ragazine demonizing Vlad Putin.  

Forward, American!

booboo's picture

"So are we still to believe that the CIA is behind all this when the wrong person wins?"

Well when everyone else except a U.S. citizen is aware of this fact it kinda blows up in their face. But when you say "behind all this" you may need to specify what "all this" is.

It's kind of hard to control the other guys "free press"

COSMOS's picture

This guy is not the wrong person.  The EU to entice him removed restrictions on chocolates from Ukraine.  He is more their man than Russia's.

He will play the EU NATO game all the way through like a good little oligarch looking to increase his market share in the EU and USA

ebear's picture

Where is it written that the CIA never fails?


overmedicatedundersexed's picture

wait for a few months before saying the cia is not behind this..if russia and ukraine come to terms and some of the eastern areas are allowed more independence then you might have a point.

Oracle of Kypseli's picture

The oligarchs of Ukraine will divide the pie, bring some semblance of calm, peace and harmony and they and Putin will do a victory dance while Kerry and O'bummer would be hiding on a sailboat and in Afganistan respectively.  

crazzziecanuck's picture

If Poroshenko doesn't do what the West tells him,the threat is already been levelled.  They'll just do to him what they did to Yanukovitch.

Line up NED money, pump it through Ukrainian astroturf "NGOs" to pay and organize people to make a mess in Kiev again.  Amplified by getting their MSM handmaidens to repeat an endless drone of bullcrap about Mr. Poroshenko until he relents.

It's not as if the USA has to do that much to forment civil strife.  You've already got eastern portions of the nation in armed conflict and probably very alienated to the point they will never truly return.  At best, Lugansk and Donetsk will become this decade's Crimea, opting for autonomy and get it only on paper as Kiev continues to run the show.  Then, of course, you have the craptastic Ukrainian economy in full implode mode.

Wouldn't be hard for the CIA to "Yanukovitch" the new President.

Oh regional Indian's picture

So this is how Ukraine is sent to the back burner for now. A moderate who has opiated ukraine for how many ever years...

trussssst in meeeeeeee.......trrrrrrruuuusttt in meeeeee........

Too funny, all "nationals" suddenly believe that businessmen make good politicians?

What a statement that is...

Hongcha's picture

Fine with me and my Russian shares.  Just percolate along, drift to the back pages and let the shares rise to the 2x multiple I conservatively target for this time next year.  Fine.  As an American, Ukraine is not and never was my business.  ZOG can eat shit.

Taurine's picture

I find it amazing how many Putin supporterts there are on Zerohedge. As someone whos country was occupied by Russians for 50 years, I can tell you that living even today with the Russian occupants is a nightmare. Many of them still dont speak my native language, not because it is hard to learn my language, but because they simply choose to not learn it as they expect that Russian empire will be re-established one day and all their "suffering" under "fascist" government that made them learn our language and respect our traditions will be over.

How would /do you like when in Califnornia or other border states in the US people simply wont talk to you in English? Thats how we are feeling for 50+ years when all those occupants(including their military) arrived  from the mighty Russia. They "freed" us from Nazis, while in 1949 killing and deporting tens of thousands of my people to Siberia to die in winter. They deported Tatars also(they only re-settled back in Crimea udner Ukrainian government), so you can understand why they dont support Russians in their native Crimea today.

As for Eastern Ukraine, some of you seem to forget Chechenya. That same Russia today, that lied to us about not having any military in Crimea, is now (always) complaining about civil rights and "peaceful" residents(armed with RPGs, AK47s etc etc) being attacked by Ukrainian army. Imagine that...those peaceful residents with AK47s and RPGs take over buildings and they expect that Ukrainian army in Ukraine(!) wont do anything?!?...Whats next Ukrainian police in Ukraine? 

In Chechenya Russians didnt care if they killed civilians, terrorists or seperatists, 200k dead in Chechenya. All they wanted was to be independent from Russia.... But hey! Russia Today wont talk about that, no wonder many on here dont even know about that. Think about that next time you fantasise about Putin.

Sorry for my grammar English is not my first or second language.

mrblah's picture

The U.S./E.U. killed a multiple of 200k in Afghanistan/Iraq, yet pretend to care about a few dozen allegedly killed by Viktor the LEGITIMATE Ukrainian leader.

I won't even begin to comment on Libya, Yemen, Sudan, Central African Republic, nor Egypt.

Where is your condemnation of this? Or are you, like the U.S./E.U. blind and only capable of seeing double standards by Russia/Putin?



ObamaDepression's picture

Your'e just cheering for "your tribe" rather than freedom or democracy.

RichardParker's picture

I believe you mean "legitimate Ukranian dictator".  BTW, I did not down vote you.

mrblah's picture

Well, dictator, "leader of the people", it all equates to the same thing these days.

They all do as they wish once elected, and renegade on any pledge as they see fit. But I get what you mean.

TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Your propaganda would sound less cheap if you didn't conflate Russia with the USSR.

This guy is at best a propagandist who perfectly knows that his stuff is babble and simply wishes for it to replace facts. Problem: his stuff is so gross that only people with already a similar mindset can be attracted to it.

At this point, he fools nobody, including himself.

At worst, he believes what he writes and he is past the point of salvation.

Taurine's picture

Oh my gosh, do you even understand what you wrote here? Conflict Russia with the USSR? You do understand that the Russian government, not the USSR(which collapsed in 1991) killed people in Chechnya? It was 1994-1999. Read up on it "fool". They killed Chechenyans because they wanted to be independant from Russia. Russia didnt have any problems killing 200k seperatists and civilians then. Can you tell me whats the difference between Chechenya and Donetsk & Lugansk? Why Russia didnt have problems killing people there in much larger numbers? At least Ukrainian army doesnt bomb buildings like Russians did.

strannick's picture

When the KGB/FSB has the same power to destabilize to the same extent southern Texas and California get back to us.

Is setting fires to civilian buildings less bad than bombing them?

Buckaroo Banzai's picture

The CIA is largely staffed by incompetent assclowns. At least that is what a veteran CIA agent once told me, and he backed up that assertion with a few stories that made you believe it.

Can we please stop attributing miraculous powers to the CIA.

Urban Roman's picture

They have excelled at sowing discord over the decades. That economic hit man stuff doesn't take a whole lot of brains if it is backed by a large military.

Miraculous power not required, as they have had little competition. The FSB may just outflank them this time, however.

rwe2late's picture

 What is being 'conflated' is USA and Russian citizenship.

The primary duty of a US citizen is to bitch about his/her own government.

Same goes for a Russian citizen.

The complaint that US citizens ought to be distressed more, complaining more, about what foreign governments do than what the US does smacks of an imperialist mind-set and hubris.

Sorry if you don't like your foreign government. But don't expect the US government to 'fix' what you don't like. The meddling, the interventions, the so-called 'policing of the world', has ruined our own government. And it hasn't done much good either, whether globally reducing militarism, advancing human rights, or individually for Vietnam, Iraq, Haiti, etc.

The professed humanitarianism of the interventionists is irritatingly false.

Militarism corrupts. And no government puts the interests of others before its own.

As Memorial Day arrives, consider:

On television there will be the millionaires’ farce of giant war profiteers Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Maytag, General Dynamics, General Electric, General Motors, Bell Helicopter, Unysis, Aerojet, Raytheon, MIT, Alliant Techsystems, etc., running ads to convince viewers that they themselves are public-spirited corporations, and the dead and wounded weren’t maimed for a nickel mine, a helicopter company, a munitions factory, an oil field, pipeline or shipbuilder. With a $700 billion military budget, and the revolving door spinning between the General Staff and the board rooms of the weapons builders, it’s clear that President Eisenhower didn’t get his wish when he warned, “I don’t want people who have a financial stake in crisis and tensions to have a voice in national policy.”

If it sounds like the big boys are dividing the spoils among themselves; it’s because they are. Exxon, BP, Shell; they’re all here. They all have their contracts in hand, and they’re all drilling their brains out thanks to the American servicemen and women who gave their lives for some trumped up baloney about WMD.
...  And even now–after all the reasons for going to war have been exposed as lies–the farce continues. Nothing has changed. Nothing. There’s still no talk of reparations, no official investigation, no indictments, no prosecutions, no trials, no penalties, no nothing. Not even a stinking apology. Just a big “up yours” Iraq. We’re way too important to apologize for killing a million of your people and reducing your five thousand year old civilization to a pile of rubble.

TheFourthStooge-ing's picture


Oh my gosh, do you even understand what you wrote here?

I simply debunked your cheap propaganda. An activity that does not require your participation or consent.

It is funny how ideologues love to side track a topic to avoid facing the facts related to it. If better propaganda could be produced it might at least entertain. Such a cheapness.

Can you tell me whats the difference between Chechenya and Donetsk & Lugansk?

Woooo, another Ukrainian Nazi Junta Citizenism historian. Might like to step into present day reality once awhile. Who knows, you might learn something like the leader of Chechnya spent 4 days negotiating the release of those two Russian journalists kidnapped by the Banderatards.


Sorry to spoil your propagandizing. But hey, you can always retreat back to your fantaisical illusions.

At least Ukrainian army doesnt bomb buildings like Russians did.

The gentle Ukrainian army shells apartment buildings with artillery. Less lethaler than evil Russian bombs?


The relentless association of facts and the requirement to be part of one specific group to acknowledge the facts keeps amazing me. For Ukrainian Yatzi Junta Citizenists, one has to be a non Russian speaker to acknowledge facts.

Taurine's picture

I wont even bother to respond to your Putlerist agenda. Strong source on that "Colorado beetle" website.


Watch how Grozny(Capital of Chechenya) looked like after Russians attacked Chechenya.




And now compare that to the evil nazi, fascist or whatever name Russia Today uses to describe Ukrainian army activities in Ukraine.


PS. I challange for you to prove that at least 1 thing I wrote is wrong.