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Richmond & Dallas Fed Miss; Manufacturing Outlook Plunges
With all eyes firmly focused on housing data that is adjusted beyond belief and a confidence print that merely met expectations, both the Richmond and Dallas Fed just missed expectations with some very concerning data under the hood. In no particular order - Dallas Fed outlook plunged from 14.5 to 11.8; Dallas employees plunged from 13.9 to 2.8 (and the workweek collapsed); New Orders and production also slumped as any post-weather bounce is buggered. For Richmond, new order volume plunged from 10 to 3 and capacity utilization dropped back below 0; and the outlook for shipments also slid to 3 month lows with employees expected to drop. In short - a total disaster...
While both headlines missed...
The real disaster is under the covers...
So major declines in Production, Capacity Utilization, New Orders, Growth Rate of Orders, Unfilled Orders, Delivery Time, Inventories, Employment, Wages and benefits, Employment and Hours Worked. The offset: a surge in Prices Paid for Raw Materials - more margin pressure...
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Pffffttt margins. Who is worried about margins when we have a printing press?
Wait a second - is the FED still pumping free money into the market and lending to their bank buddies at 0%? They are, oh, ok, then I can ignore this and get 100x leveraged long on the S&P or the current momo-stock-du-jour.
Little heads up.
Note that the new claims report last week was rather poor, and THAT PARTICULAR WEEK is the sample week for May's NFP upcoming.
Add that to these poor employment sub indices from these Fed reports and we may be looking at a poor NFP upcoming.
Yes, but that would be looking at news and fundamental drivers for the economy, which sucks if you have to participate in the economy, but doesn't mean shit for the market, which only cares whether Janet's still got the checkbook open.
There is no market. Ignore it.
You know, maybe I'm stupid (been accused of it many times, but never convicted), but I'm looking at three numbers on that ledger that were somehow glossed over....
1. Production. Big double digit downward change.
2. Prices paid (for materials with which to produce that something). Big double digit upward change.
3. Prices received (for selling that thing you produced less of at higher input costs). Modest downward.
Does THAT mean anything? Probably not to the price of "securities", but real world, that's what you call BAD.
In the real world its called bankruptcy.
Its amazingly slow, and then lightning fast, to paraphrase someone else.
Exactly - this is bad news for everybody who has to work and live in the real world, but it's of no consequence for the 'market'.
" is the FED still pumping free money into the market and lending to their bank buddies at 0%?"
No.
Giving away money is what philanthropists and the administers of wills do.
The central banks are counterfeiting when they give out currency that was not originated from productive work.
higher tops and higher bottoms indicate just one thing....T&A paradise, bitches.
SELL GOLD!!!!! (doesn't matter which way the figures go)
Just relooked at the article. There is no mention of gold in it.
You can usually relate bonds to any economic article, and certainly oil, or even housing . . . loosely, but gold is pretty specific and it's not like there is a scarcity of ZH articles in which to talk about gold.
So why spam on this one?
You have been here for 3 years... do you not realize that its ALL about gold? Gold sits at the base of the financial system. Everything else is a derivative.
bullish
If China's economy/production are contracting then maybe the bad US economy is bullish for China, and all corporations with manufacturing in China ?
Corporations are probably shipping even moar jobs to China for lower cost of production during Chinese contraction.
Went to cash and PMs only.
Wars will increase production across the world.
Interesting.
A total disaster = BTFATH, oh, and don't forget to sell your gold
gold is getting taken to the woodshed.... again.
Wake me when it's back under $500 an ounce.
Funny, isn't it, how 'market technicians' price projections for gold are always DOWN...?
No matter the fundamentals. No matter the macro. No matter the exogenous events. No matter the reality of world physical trading. No matter the manipulation. No matter the supply deficit. No matter the miners mining at a loss...
Soon gold will be free, I expect. Their target: zero?
@LofP
Can we start calling you Rip??
And the miners, they're getting crushed. About time - put all those moronic (or complicit) fuckheads out of business once and for all.
If you hold physical, wouldn't closing down all gold mining operations be a GOOD thing for the value of your holdings? I'm not sayin' nothin'. I'm just sayin'.
Yes, it would.
Yeah all those people mining trying to support their families should lose their jobs!... Fuck you.
Please replace the batteries in your sarcasm detector.
Just trying to shake out any weak hands before this coming July.
This will get worse the closer we get to the Shanghai FTZ taking over phyz gold pricing.
Hang tight, the buying oppotunity of a lifetime is coming.
By the dip. The paper traders are making my day. I don't value my gold in paper but they do. THANK YOU paper traders. The laws of REALITY can not be avoided and sooner or later they will SPANK the paper traders.
Nothing of this will mean anything to stock "markets"...WE DON'T NEED NO STINKIN' FUNDAMENTALS!!!
Waiting for the first DIVIDEND CUT.
European Skeptics Arrive on the Scene:
http://winteractionables.com/?p=11980
Look, even TWTR is rallying - up a solid .5% as we speak! Everybody's excited about this news.
CNBC Headline
LOL...too funny...
The economy looks really good to the shrinking number with a reliable job.
"Buggered"... LMAO. London desk write up this piece? Seriously, I have no problem with Americans calling out our crappy numbers, but UK is in a world all it's own when it comes to financial engineering. (As ZH has indicated with re-re-rehypothication piece... but really, go check out the piece in American Interest)
The only factor affecting the markets at this point is The Fed printing press. You could have 25% unemployment and negative production numbers but as long as they keep stealing our wealth and puking it into the market,"These aren't the droids you're looking for."
could have?
Time for the government to buy some more shit....
Maybe gold is the only asset following normal market patterns. Everyone is poor, so there should be deflation. This would only be countered if oligarchs were buying gold with their 0% loans. Are they? I don't know.
The gold paper market is being manipulated on all fronts. Luckly for those who are stacking they are artificially bringing the price of PM's down. Thank You.
If your using all your paper to monetize the debt...how much paper is left to "manipulate" gold?
I would say that money spigot is about to be shut off.
It never existed in the energy markets where outside of natural gas has not only gone up but stayed up.
Wall Street interns working the floor are only allowed to push the buy button until their bosses come back from the beach. Market ging up
I think we'll know The Truman Show Market is over when we see some intraday reversal of direction in markets that STICKS. Let's hope for today.
hummmmmm... and this is the whitewashed version?
"In short - a total disaster..." Hyperbole alive and well at ZeroHedge.
Down is the new good!
And this is TEXAS, one of the (supposedly) healthy parts of the country, economically.
When this shit pops there will be feces everywhere.
I see a lot of minus signs.
That's really bad.
Long the S&P!!!!
How then is it possible that the PMI is up?
Okay...so margin annihilation confirmed...but we also have to start deconstructing the myth of "inflation" (confetti money) as a positive as well.
The theory is that by destroying the dollar this will open "cheap markets" to US goods thereby creating cash flow and profits "on a global scale."
Instead what has happened (since 1973 when Adolf Nixon nuked the dollar) is that "cheap" imports flooded into the USA on a truly staggering scale and foreign countries built up truly staggering dollar reserves thus bringing on an "outsourcing wave" which has ultimately led to the total annihilation of the US middle class.
So while input prices have soared final goods prices have in fact stagnated (coffee and a bagel) and in some cases collapsed (Detroit.)
The policy response has been "from war with the Taliban to war with Russia and China.
"Our list of allies grows thin, Gandalf."
Janet Yellen, just print moar money and call it a day.
/sarc
all the more reason to own gold cause when the bullshit ends and it will end paper will be good for starting your campfire
Markit has an ipo coming what do you expect. Sort of like the Lithuania and Estonia upgrades.
http://mobile.nytimes.com/blogs/dealbook/2014/05/05/financial-data-compa...
We just get more and more info on inflation picking up.
WE lost the majority of heavy industry in the 70's from 1870-1970 we were king with up to 50% of our workforce employed by manufacturing. Now in order to keep 6% in view we count assembly!
WE have no Heavy Industry to speak of and our president makes sure he's going to get rid of the rest by Jacking Up The EPA qualifications with Executive Orders.
Money is fleeing! Bermuda and BVI overfloweth!! Coal has now been officially killed with thousands of jobs. There is no recovery only decline!
Day after boring, manipulated day...stocks rise in the off-hours or soar at opening, then flatline to the end of the session, perhaps with a little 3:30 ramp added...
Day after mind-numbing, counterintuitive day...