• Gold Money
    05/03/2016 - 11:35
    Crude oil time-spreads have completely dislocated from inventories. Historically, such dislocations have proved to be short lived. We expect that either spot prices will sell-off again or the back...

Signs Of An Aging Bull Market

Tyler Durden's picture


Submitted by Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management,


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Tue, 05/27/2014 - 17:35 | 4799729 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"Crowding out." Move along...

Tue, 05/27/2014 - 17:45 | 4799749 ACP
ACP's picture

The author forgot one little item: The margin calls at the prop desks have to be big enough to outweigh the $10 billion a week in free money they are getting.

Tue, 05/27/2014 - 17:57 | 4799774 DetectiveStern
DetectiveStern's picture

I'm getting bored of waiting for it to go wrong. It's almost like waiting in anticpation for your toast to be ready.

Tue, 05/27/2014 - 18:01 | 4799787 Row Well Number 41
Row Well Number 41's picture

One way to stop a runaway horse is to bet on him.


Wed, 05/28/2014 - 03:24 | 4801068 Funny Money
Funny Money's picture

On the other hand, feel free to bet against the market.  


I dare you.

Tue, 05/27/2014 - 18:16 | 4799825 Cattender
Cattender's picture

the stock market Will NEVER Crash.. it's Different this Time! LOL!!!!

Tue, 05/27/2014 - 19:07 | 4799959 BrosephStiglitz
BrosephStiglitz's picture

I still think Grantham probably has it right.  This bull market has a little while longer to run yet.  We'll see 2150-2250 on the S&P500 into the start of next year, and from there it will be bust.

This will be the bust to end all busts.  It will probably be more destructive than the Great Depression as it is a culmination of half a century of debt accumulation and several decades of bogus growth imploding.  Stocks might go first, sov. debt crises will follow.

Seeing some major movement on a couple of markets I have been watching.  It was anticipated.  Hoping my fundamental analysis is correct in this regard as I have a clear trading strategy for the next 6-9 months.  After that it is going to get rocky.

Tue, 05/27/2014 - 20:17 | 4800168 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

Here is one of those images in the OP projected out into the future.

Should be a close approximation of what lies ahead.  





Tue, 05/27/2014 - 17:42 | 4799736 elephant
elephant's picture

So...keep holding tightly to my ankles?

Tue, 05/27/2014 - 17:59 | 4799781 hairball48
hairball48's picture

In a word? Yes :)

Tue, 05/27/2014 - 17:43 | 4799743 Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

I just read that the values of the top one percent of homes are up +20% this year and the bottom 99 percent of homes are -7% this year. The cracks are starting to show. The ponzi is unraveling right before our eyes. That doesn't guarantee an immediate collapse due to banker 'creativity', but they are running out of time to bandage the system...


Tue, 05/27/2014 - 18:21 | 4799846 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

Why else do you think Obama is so desperate to raise the minimum wage and pass more stimulus? He needs to keep it gooing through 2016 so Hillary can be his 3rd term.

Tue, 05/27/2014 - 17:49 | 4799745 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Looking at the last chart "Deviation from Long Term Avg." indicates that when this bubble blows (which looks to be nigh) it will be the 3rd bubble popped since the turn of the century (2000).

On the whole the charts illustrate the parasitic behavior of Wall Street in collusion with .gov.

Any regular citizen trying to save and invest for retirement has their money used to buy the ramp and the top as the insiders churn and rotate sectors on the way up and sell at just the right time.


Wed, 05/28/2014 - 06:59 | 4801197 what's that smell
what's that smell's picture

higher tops and bottoms as far as the eye can see.

the only thing this speculative bubble lacks is a terminal madness-of-crowds parabolic blow-off.....

Tue, 05/27/2014 - 17:44 | 4799747 dirtyfiles
dirtyfiles's picture

stocks hording lets go further why bother with say 3000 shares of stocks lets go pounds 

I have 20 lbs of stocks you?

Tue, 05/27/2014 - 17:46 | 4799751 enloe creek
enloe creek's picture

been wondering about something that I have not seen mentioned before. If interest rates are artificially held down, would it be possible that some event might unleash a rapid rise in rates practically overnight. I mean the fed would be aware something was going on before hand and take extreme measures to counter the rate rise like have a secret buyer of treasuries or have the EU propagandise about QE or slam gold down but in the end rates would burst forth anyway unless some kind of currency marshall law policy came out and bank deposit bail ins occurred without warning wait a minute then gold would be like gold again so they have to do something there. hmmmm

Tue, 05/27/2014 - 18:19 | 4799844 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

I don't see how Treasury rates could have an unexpected rise, because the power to print is infinite. But the rates on corporate junk bonds certainly could rise, and rise fast. All it would take is a few highly placed big defaults.

Tue, 05/27/2014 - 17:51 | 4799761 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Great Job Lance

Tue, 05/27/2014 - 17:56 | 4799770 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

bullshit. watch the fed funds rate if you want to know the direction of the market.


what i didn't know until this day is that it was barzini all along. [/don corleone]

Tue, 05/27/2014 - 18:15 | 4799824 starman
starman's picture

I wouldnt call a manipulated stock market "bull market"!


Tue, 05/27/2014 - 18:41 | 4799901 DavidC
DavidC's picture

Spot on, it's only been a 'bull' market in the sense it's been going up, and that on the basis of the Fed's largesse, hardly from the point of view of strong fundamentals and genuine reasons to be bullish.

That's why it WILL fail, maybe not this week or this month but it WILL fail.


Tue, 05/27/2014 - 19:11 | 4799992 Frilton Miedman
Frilton Miedman's picture

Household debt v income strongly supports your argument at this late stage in a bull.

If wages don't start growing, then deflation will have to meet it halfway.

Tue, 05/27/2014 - 19:12 | 4799973 Frilton Miedman
Frilton Miedman's picture

Absolutely fantastic report, most of these variables I already watch, relative strength of the RUT & Nasdaq (and a few others), value v growth, investor sentiment and the "dumb money" via ICI fund flows.

That said, I always second guess myself, especially when my conclusions are openly verified in plain sight the way this article does.

Afterall, I'm the "dumb money".

Where it's so "obvious" to me, gives me pause to use caution in my hedge positioning.

I suspect we'll see an inverse to the capitualations we see in bear market bottoms that will wash out the peons like me who are too heavy on the short side.





Wed, 05/28/2014 - 01:44 | 4800954 HaroldWang
HaroldWang's picture


Wed, 05/28/2014 - 06:02 | 4801165 damicol
damicol's picture

i WILL PAY ANYONE FROM 3 TO 6% INTEREST (YIELD) TO ANYONE WHO LEND ME THEIR S&P 500 STOCK with an option to buy at any time. You retain dividends.

Now that seems an offer worth serious thought

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