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When, Not If
Inevitability...
Source: @Not_Jim_Cramer
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So the "smart" money got out in 2002 and the S&P fell 5 years later? That's killa smart, boyz.
I was thinking the same think. Nearly half a decade is a pretty bad timespan for a "leading" indicator.
No, the smart money (hate that phrase) got into something else besides stocks.
Like the downside in the housing market. Helping to bundle the toxic CDO's and then buying the insurance protection from AIG and the Germans.
There's your lag. Rotate from one over-crowded asset class (HFT) to the new manipulated market.
OT
When? Soon.
Commissioned in 1961 - Max Carbon Nuke in Madison WI @ UW, is spraying a bit of Gamma...
https://www.netc.com/
I was thinking the same think. Nearly half a decade is a pretty bad timespan for a "leading" indicator.
Exactly. Maybe the Smart Money used to be ahead of the game, but 2002 was the start of the Housing Bubble (i.e. QE-1, NASDAQ was QE-2). Smart Money tried to be smart based on Fundamentals in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 but then got stopped back into the game.
Exactly. Maybe the Smart Money used to be ahead of the game, but 2002 was the start of the Housing Bubble (i.e. QE-1, NASDAQ was QE-2). Smart Money tried to be smart based on Fundamentals in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 but then got stopped back into the game.
These charts kind a kill the whole wall street oligarch ownership of government and insider knowledge on everything meme
dito... that's a lot of expired put option to nail that.... and I'm already fully loaded after today, shorted a shitload of stocks today at the peak.
Been hearing the phrase "When, No If" on ZH since 2010. Judging by the lack of comments these days, TD has probably pissed off enough doomers who have lost tons of money waiting on the "When" part of that phrase. The ones still standing are still waiting......
Not everyone decided to short. Knowing something bad is coming does not mean'short it now!!!'
Unless I had an Uncle Ben (or Auntie Janet) I would not be in this market. It is dangerous. Let the machines play.
It looks to me like the smart money started getting IN in 2002 and the S&P followed 3-6 months later.
This chart lacks the definition of smart.
Not until after the Elections.
Every election cycle we hear the same thing, yet here we are at all time highs.
Hmmm Dr.....mebbe TPTB don't care that much about political parties, and their power as much as manipulating the whole thing to maximize their own internal rate of return?...;) (ya think?!)
..And the Venezuelan stock market gained 1000+ points since last year. 'On what' you may ask?
Don't look at the markets. Its already happened.
The fundamentals are telling the bankers they are already dead.
The economy is already tanking. Half of my colleagues are still unemployed. Almost everyone is a debt slave.
Everything you see now is papered-over facade.
They can play this game almost indefinitely. Just ask Nicolás Maduro.
that's why I went short today :)
took my bet that after EU elections the band would drop off.
Could'vs sworn CNBC has been telling everyone...EVERYONE to buy stocks. CNBC is never wrong.
Looks like Smart Money left and came back in 2009, then 2010, then 2011, 2012, 2013 etc. etc.
It's a sure thing. All in NOW! See how that red thingy lags behind the blue one? Boomberg is trustworthy and accurate. I'm going put all my money in an an S&P Index fund. Also I'm going to buy on margin and I'm going to borrow 90K from my brother in law who thinks I'm an Investment Guru. I'll say I've got inside information and no downside risk. If things go badly I'll use his money to bail myself out and tell him, sorry, it was the threat of war and Putin, no way to predict. I'll tell him, "Hey bro, you can't get blood out of a turnip. What do you want me to do, feed your little neice cat food? Do you want to break your sister's heart? Dude, that's cold, the money's gone man." So finally he'll leave me alone.
You can afford to feed your neice catfood?!!! Top shelf! I generally look for used sawdust on Craigslist for mine.
but, but... all that money on the sidelines!
Smart money goes to China.
TD: "Ah fuck it, just throw this chart at them, they'll eat it up!"
But the REALLY Smart Money is: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-27/how-really-smart-money-wins
Not sayin' it's not true (Not not...who's there?). All I know is I ain't the Smart Money (unless you count not playing being smart).
Inscrutability! Dead ahead!
Has anyone heard what the bottom left to top right ruler man has been saying lately?
"Time is a room, not a road". (Fowles)
When? Too linear.
Another asinine chart that means nothing. That smart money index could beign a steady climb to 20,000 and the S&P could hit 5,000 from here.
Astrology and numerology aren't science.
BTATFH.
The only thing that chart shows is new highs are guarnteed and the last time the "smart money index" topped out the actual market went dramatically higher for another four years.
all you fools saying we are going down are public as shit; everyone I hear talk about the market says "frothy" or "topping" and about to go down, that means one thing; its going sharply higher as these idiots hit the buy button in a panic while the algos keep ramping us higher. If we manage to ever down tick again it will be met with furious bids to cover with so many funds and "pros" trading from the short side. This looks more like a base and breakout for the next leg up than a top.
There is zero indication of a top anywhere.
And real estate markets never go down either.
Oh, wait.....
There is if you care to look. Huge margin lending, CAPE at danger levels (always been followed by material correction from these levels), poor valuations (don't listen to people that compare todays valuations to averaged from 2000 or 2007), and the big one is the fed backing away from QE. What matters to asset prices is the rate of change of credit. That has been true for a while now. Look at housing for the easiest/cleanest example of that. Point is, the fed is done. The acceleration in their liquidity injections (ie credit) is negative. People will wake up to this soon enough. And the Japanese don't look like coming to do more soon. As for the ECB, well there really is little chance of them doing QE.
So the point is there are plenty of warning signs. We are basically stuck in end bit of the recent depression and they have faked prices of equities to record highs. I wish you well being long at the highs, I am sure you'll get the memo to dump them all when need be, but generally you want to sell the big numbers and buy the small ones.
>>> oh and i forgot to mention ... the vix is telling you that we may be experiencing a blow off top here. (But the big flashing light for me is the end of QE)
You were doing good until you said there is zero indication of a top...that being said, the market has been topping for two years.
The smart money goes to the strippers.
This sure inevitability thing is sure taking it's fucking time.
One would think people would tire of predicting something so inevitable. I certainly tire of hearing about it.
The Boiler Room crowd says 5,000 on the S&P.
No real demand, but who gives a shit!
But that is always the question, isn't it.
To infinity....and beyond!
my money is so smart that it can make cents out of dollars.
:)
Yeah, that's right - when...?
What the chart is lacking is an overlay of the game "Monopoly." This is not oligarchs and politicians collaborating, but Central Bankers skirting the laws, or creating them for their benefit. The premise behind the economy since the late 70s has been based on the FIRE economy (Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate). Create a demand for assets, finance them through fractional reserve banking (creating fiat money with no backing), insure them for loss (insurance), and create a mantra to own Real Estate (because it never goes down). Essentially, the FIRE thrives on leverage and people borrowing beyond their means. The leverage through fiat money creates an impression that assets are appreciating, but in reality are propped up. This worked well, with some minor hiccups along the way, but when Greenspan discovered in October of 1987 that the FED could buy more S&P futures than anyone could sell (they never run out of money or are faced with a margin call). At first this backstop was used sparingly, but over the last ten years, and since 2009 is the only reason the markets are up. Risk has been distorted by printing money and throwing it at any perceived risk. This is the model we have seen over the past 5 years. Businesses at the heart of FIRE economy controlled by the FED cannot fail, because when something goes wrong, they suppress the risk. This suppression of risk did not do well for the Forest Service; eventually the forests have to burn down to become healthy again. The Central Bankers of the world believe they cannot prevent bad outcomes; and so far they have. How would you like to play poker against a player that never runs out of money? Eventually people stop playing the game.
Let’s go back to the broken business model. Banks exist primarily to loan money against assets or to support business’ capital needs. The financial system became so greedy after Clinton repealed the Glass Stegal Act in the late 90s. This led to a creation of products based on continued borrowing, chasing assets higher. The problem arrived in 2007-2009 when there was no way the borrower could continue to subsidize the assets, and could no longer service the debt. This would have meant disaster if businesses had been allowed to fail; but instead Kauffman, Geithner, Bernanke et al created artificial ways to re-inflate the assets. They can buy whatever they want, spin the numbers in whatever way they desire; all to pad their pockets. Good luck betting against the house.
In the past revolutions and wars would have undermined these shenanigans, but as long as people can vote politicians into office in return for handiouts, the game will continue.
I'm certainly not a genius, but it looks like once the red line gets above the high of the blue line, the red will roll over fairly shortly thereafter, and will fall at least to the low of the blue low, and perhaps a bit further. This would mean an S&P tumble to about 1620 or 1630 when it comes. The blue line peaked about 4-6 months ago, so the red rollover could come in the next couple of months. The chart only goes back to 1998, so this time will probably be different. I'm fairly sure unicorns weren't discovered until sometime between 2010 and 2012, so that certainly needs to be weighted into the formula. Unicorns change everything!
The stock market has become ground zero and the poster child in a war those in power have waged to convince the world all is well. The forces that have driven stock markets ever-higher and upward may be beginning to wane. Many markets became distorted years ago when QE and super low interest rates hit the economy in an effort to lessen many of the missteps of recent years.
This has been more helpful in holding up the underlying value of assets and derivatives it now appears than helping to repair a wounded economy. QE has up to now stopped an implosion of derivatives including the resulting contagion and shock that would have spread throughout the financial system. Unfortunately the economy has not fared as well as these asset prices and in many ways these policies have harmed Main Street. More on this subject in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/05/facing-our-economic-armageddon.ht...
When, not If. Priceless lol. Who pays these buffoons? When will always come, eventually.