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The Malinvestment Boom In Coders
Submitted by Pater Tenebrarum of Acting Man blog,
Computer Science Enrollments Explode
Techcrunch had an interesting article about the explosion of freshmen deciding to study computer science. There can be no doubt that this type of knowledge is currently in great demand – however, we do believe that there are some signs that the boom is so to speak 'getting out of hand' and is beginning to reflect the effects of the technology echo bubble on Wall Street.
The give-away is the size of the demand for computer science studies relative to other fields of study. Even if computer technology and everything connected to it is steadily increasing in importance, this looks like 'bubble behavior' to us. Let us not forget, vast increases in the money supply and the concomitant suppression of the natural interest rate are mainly reflected in the higher order stages of the economy's production structure, and investment in 'human capital' is definitely a very 'high order' stage (meaning: it takes a very long time before the investment actually bears fruit and produces an income).
New enrollments in computer science vs. other studies – click to enlarge.
People may be inclined to instinctively judge that it can only be good if so many young people decide to study something 'useful' as opposed to, say, art history or literature. However, as Mish has recently pointed out, the widespread yammering about a 'skills shortage' is actually misguided (he provides a few additional links to recent press reports on the topic that are well worth checking out as well). There is in reality no shortage of workers skilled in science and engineering.
We happen to believe that jumping on a popular bandwagon is almost always a mistake. By the time these freshmen finish with their studies, they may well find out that a shortage has developed in an entirely different field and that their chosen profession is suddenly crowded with job seekers.
Bubble or Not?
One needs to keep in mind here that the last time enrollment in computer science peaked was in the year 2000 – concurrently with the technology mania. This is obviously no coincidence. What is slightly disconcerting is that the current peak in enrollments towers vastly above that previous bubble peak. This can be gleaned from the data published by individual colleges. Here is e.g. Carnegie-Mellon University as a pertinent example:
Carnegie-Mellon University's computer sciences enrollments. The current peak dwarfs the year 2000 peak – click to enlarge.
The researchers quoted by Techcrunch assert that it is 'not a bubble this time' based on what we believe is spurious reasoning:
“Now, when the word “bubble” gets thrown around, many tech industry leaders like to point out that public market activity is nowhere near the irrational exuberance seen during the first tech boom. But in academia, enthusiasm for learning to code is at all time highs, with CS enrollment at some schools far surpassing the numbers that were seen during the late 1990s.”
Our reply to this is that not every bubble is accompanied by the kind of public frenzy seen in 1929 or 2000. After suffering through two major bear markets and a real estate collapse, the still overleveraged public is no longer as enthused about the stock market's get rich quick promise as it once was, that is certainly true. However, that only means that the bubble is driven by 'professionals' nowadays – with the main difference that they are probably even more reckless, as they play with other people's money. In other words, they get all the reward, while incurring very little risk. In fact, the biggest career risk investment professionals as a rule face is being out of the market while it goes up. If they get caught fully invested in a bear market, they have little to fear because they will have plenty of company and even more excuses (of the 'no-one could have seen it coming' type).
Hence it could well be argued that the current echo bubble is in some ways even more worrisome than the frenzy seen in the late 1990s. It has definitely invited a great deal more leverage already:
Investor margin debt balances have ballooned to a far greater extent than at the year 2000 peak – never before have negative credit balances been at such an extreme level – click to enlarge.
Lastly, in order to determine whether or not one is in a bubble era, opinions and observations about the mass-psychological backdrop are one thing, but the data are more important. The most important datum of them all is money supply growth, and with regard to that, the current period definitely stands out. Since 2008, the broad US money supply TMS-2 has increased by about 93% (from $5.3 trn. to $10.2 trn.). Since 2000, the increase in the broad US true money supply amounts to an even more staggering 245%. So there is now almost twice as much money in the economy than in 2008, and nearly three and half times as much as in 2000. This is the datum most relevant to determining if we are in a bubble era or not, and it clearly tells us that we are. It matters little if it 'feels' like we are in a bubble to 'tech industry leaders' (one of whom let us not forget has just spent $19 billion for an 'app', buying profitless 'eyeballs'). What matters in this case is the evidence.
US money supply TMS-2 (without memorandum items) since the 1990s – click to enlarge.
As to the effect of this monetary expansion on asset prices, below is a chart of the Nasdaq Internet Power Shares ETF documenting it quite nicely. As an aside to all this, we are not saying anything regarding the timing of the bubble's eventual demise. The question is only 'is it a bubble?' We say it is one, and it can be shown that this is the case.
The huge increase in computer science enrollment is therefore most likely an example of malinvestment in human capital. Students would do well to take the time to carefully ponder their choices in this respect.
PNQI – one of the market sectors displaying the exponential growth typical of bubbles – click to enlarge.
Lastly, here is a slightly dated chart we have shown before, namely the percentage of money-losing IPOs, which has recently reached the year 2000 peak again:
Share of IPOs with negative earnings – most of them are in the technology sector – click to enlarge.
Conclusion:
Res ipsa loquitur.
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Coding isn't really all that bad of an investment, because it can be used to enhance ability in many other trades. I like this trend because it may give impetus to getting rid of all the H1-B parasites.
At least this bubble will create even more work for good coders, who get the opportunity to unfuckup the mess created by the "script kiddies."
Though I expect them to make the interenet grind to a halt first with all the whistles and bells they tack on (ala "social media" crap).
My stupid android tablet barely runs anymore. I get 10 second delays on freaking keyboard input!
Well someone has to service all the burger robots!
Notice how Bioengineering has taken off over the last few years also. Big bubble there on false promises. No, nothing to see here, move on.
paw-paw says that you can make a good living writing "apps" and that the training you get during your 4 (well, maybe 6) years of college will be help you in your career as an "app developer" for the following 30+ years so you can build your retirement.
For once, it's good to see an article about a "bubble" on ZH that is actually NOT a bubble.
This is a reflection of a deep, fundamental, underlying shift in jobs and the needs of the economy, and workers are FINALLY wising up to something that those of us in software have known for years. We're nowhere close to a "bubble" with this and are unlikely to get there for a good long time given how far out of whack the programmer supply/demand ratio is.
Agreed, this is not a bubble. Computer Science did not exist as a field even a few decades ago. Obviously if it starts out at zero and expands to where it is now, the growth rate is astronomical compared to other professions. It's not driven by a bubble, but by improvements in computing technology that is expanding the applications of the field. I don't believe Computer Science will exist 20 years from now as it is too broad of a field. It will branch out into fields such as bioinformatics, robotic control systems, applications and databases, artificial intelligence/machine learning, networking, and operating systems.
Go read "The Daily Worse Than Failure" website, then get back to us...
H-1B will never go away: That's all corporate America wants.
All this blather about "can't find workers" is nothing but management's failure to plan. I actually attended a lecture last year where the professor pointed out that American businesses have no clue what technologies are going to be commonplace in five years (but in five years, these same companies will be bitching about how they can't find skilled workers). He contrasted this attitude with that of Asia, where companies were discussing technologies with a 30 year horizion.
Failure to plan? H1-B is the plan. In olden days of yore it was called "indentured servitude." No coincidence that it takes 7 years to convert your H1-B to a green card.
"H-1B will never go away: That's all corporate America wants."
Dont be too sure about that. I happen to be a software developer for abt 18 years and I've noticed that the preference for offshore seems to be waning significantly. It wont go away, but WOOO the skillz reliability leaves MUCH to be desired. My current group are baaaaaad.
A huge portion of H1-B applicants falsify their credentials. Yes, you get cheap labor. Labor who is grossly unqualified for the required work.
Perhaps. But they're employed, aren't they?
ONLY, and I stress only, because we're still under signed contract. Of course, we've also fired half their team.
Our building is filling up with them (2.5 floors so far in a decent size 4 story), thanks to one large consulting firm. It's a license to print money. They probably bill $120+/hr for them and pay $45/hr.
Our building is filling up with them (2.5 floors so far in a decent size 4 story), thanks to one large consulting firm. It's a license to print money. They probably bill $120+/hr for them and pay $45/hr.
From my point of view: waning yes, "significantly" not so sure yet.
I'd say US clients are slowly learning that far-east "Yes man" don't always deliver on time or at all and it might be positive if one is able to also say "No" or "We can do it, but that's gonna cost."
laughable.. the only malinvestment has been in economics, anthropology, women's studies, french lit ie Liberal arts Education.
Liberal arts education = barista job at Starbucks.
Engineering degree = googleplex
need I say more.
btw.. Stanford is the most selective school in the US. Kids get it. Blowhard bloggers don't.. wake up smell the coffee LOLs
• Stanford University: 5.1% (2,138 offers; 42,167 applications)
• Harvard University: 5.9% (2,023 offers; 34,295 applications)
• Yale University: 6.3% (1,935 offers; 30,932 applications)
• Columbia University: 7.0% (2,291 offers; 32,967 applications)
• Princeton University: 7.3% (1,939 offers; 26,641 applications)
• Massachusetts Institute of Technology: 7.7% (1,419 offers; 18,357 applications)
Exactly, if we would send all these H1-B holders back packing and actually hire any of these graduates it would be a great thing, but I have seen some Indians and Chinese managers that will only hire their own while HR look to the other side.
Still, better to learn engineering than going to get a bachelor in "women studies"
Thanks to whoever posted this a few days ago: MGTOW
There's yer wymyn's studies fer ya.
give me a place to stand and I will move the earth
Something about a lever seems to be missing.
Levers are for pussies.
A reference to a lever or Chuck Norris. I will accept Chuck Norris as a correct answer as well.
Same thing was said when I entered the engineering profession in the 80's. "The Indians and Chinese will eat your lunch for 10c an hour." Didn't happen then, won't happen now.
"Didn't happen then" -- Have you been to the bay area lately or taken a look at the engineers who currently occupy the higher positions in the world's most successful engineering firms across all sectors of the economy?
A bit early for happy hour don't cha think?
Are they earning 10c an hour? No. These are the cream of the Indian and Chinese tech schools so they deserve to compete with the cream of the US schools.
Are they earning 10c an hour?
No, the just sold their souls and work 23 hrs/day and their work reflects their lack of sleep.
Same as it ever was in most professions. Its not a job for anyone over 35 or with a family.
do you get hazard pay?
Only in share options. You'd better time the sale well.
The silicon valley startup/social media jobs aren't. That is destined to become like Hollywood, a longshot business of stars and slaves, go big or go home. Wall St. will be like that too for computer guys. But there are also the jobs working for the military, for the rest of the government, for Wal-Mart, etc. that lend themselves more to nine to five hours. They won't get the attention or the millions but they will still be there 20 years from now.
The fields that offer the fastest ramp in pay, are also mostly the ones that will burn out the fastest, or go through a recession in demand at some point. You have to look for what you're good at, that is going to be of lasting value, and be in it for the long haul, keep besting your competition at each level of the minor leagues.
Yes. I went the burnout route (dotcom 1.0 and finance). I would rather have gone the long and steady route in retrospect.
There does exist a middle way between burnout career, and cushy but totally bureaucratic job.
...but just in time for Dim Sum.
Besides, how does one successfully engineer entropy?
like porcupines doing the wild thing, very carefully.
Apparently it IS happening now. Lots and lots of things are engineered & manufactured in China, Taiwan & Japan, not in North America.
Has been for 20 years.
only those who really know how to code understand how stupid this is...
I was thinking the same thing... unlike every other profession the barrier to entry in a science field (programming especially) is intellengance and talent not a peice of paper. Most of these kids are just waisting their time and money and will never find employment in this field. Not becuase the jobs don't exists or the field is too saturated but becuase you actually have to be talented to do this. The person who wrote this article has no idea what it takes to be proficient programmer.
How many incoming freshmen there are doesn't even mean sh!t as to how many get degrees either. Maybe 40 percent of the freshmen who started out in engineering at my school graduated thus, and maybe half of them with GPAs of 2.7 or below. If you're not among the top fifth of your incoming class, you're probably not going to make it to that first real full-time job doing real engineering tasks.
LMAO. Was at a party with a good friend of mine and an old friend of his. We were talking about work and I went on and on about how easy it is and how well paid programmers are (I am one). Heard a few months later from my friend that the guy took up college course work to explore programming. HAHAHA, he said he totally couldn't hack it and dropped the classes.
You're right, when you got it, you got it, when you dont, you dont.
A lot of people will wash out, but a good curriculum provides tons of knowledge you'll never get anywhere else. It is extremely valuable, and necessary if you're going to do something with a high level of technical complexity. Just speaking personally, when I started at Berkeley, I could hack. When I was done, I could code. If I hadn't had that experience, I wouldn't be able to do what I can do today.
Meh, but can you re-write someone else's pitiful attempt at coding into something comprehensible and maintainable?
Here's a typical function source file from "Numerical Recipes in C:"
void vander( float x[], float w[], float q[], int n )
{
int i, j, k, k1;
float b, s, t, xx;
float *c;
extern float *vector();
extern void free_vector();
c = vector( 1, n );
if (n == 1)
w[1] = q[1];
else
{
for (i = 1; i <= n; i++)
c[i] = 0.0;
c[n] = -x[1];
for (i = 2; i <= n; i++)
{
xx = -x[i];
for (j = (n + 1 - i); j <= (n - 1); j++)
c[j] += xx * c[j + 1];
c[n] += xx;
}
for (i = 1; i <= n; i++)
{
xx = x[i];
t = b = 1.0;
s = q[n];
k = n;
for (j = 2; j <= n; j++)
{
k1 = k - 1;
b = c[k] + xx * b;
s += q[k1] * b;
t = xx * t + b;
k = k1;
}
w[i] = s / t;
}
}
free_vector( c, 1, n );
return;
}
Notice the total lack of comments and really stupid names for the variables?
That's because someone took the lazy route and just translated the original FORTRAN source code into C! Fortunately, the book "Numerical Recipes in C"
contains all the documentation necessary to figure out what the vander() function is for. (Vandermonde matrices) However, the source code itself should be self-documenting, and choosing descriptive variable names goes a long way in helping someone unattached to the original code in understanding how it works. I've lost count on how many hours I've spent changing someone else's poor attempts at writing software into something maintainable.
There is going to be a lot of underemplyed hackers in the future
Yup, especially as more and more of industries look towards AI & automation !
Should have opted for Business managements like everyone else.
You are right... but Machine learning techniques will open many new jobs for non-programmers or sort-of-programmers .. with on hands expirience in the field in which the specific company specialises ... i.e. data-mining and stuff..
People who can train and digest the results from Machine learning apps, will be very south for.
Machine learning techniques are developed by Computer Scientists. When computers become smart enough to improve their own intelligence, the "singularity" will be upon us.
There are already large numbers of them now.
I don't suppose the mean annual income of a coder is close to $10 million yet.
Speaking of malinvestment...CEOs?!
Not too many CEOs around relative to other professions, and those that are had to climb over the mountains of corpses of failed business management graduates who they schooled with.
Will be a significantly larger mountain in 2015 when the equities markets finally burst at the seams though.
For decades, it was drilled into the heads of many Americans that renting makes you a second-class citizen. You only rent temporarily until you can move up in the world and achieve the American dream by purchasing a home -- but those days may be behind us.
About three in five adults believe renters can be just as successful as homeowners at achieving the American Dream, and more than half believe buying a home has become less appealing in recent years, according to a 2013 survey of more than 1,400 people by research firm Hart Research Associates.
While owning a home may be an aspiration for many Americans, it's often just less expensive and more convenient to be a renter. Here are 10 examples:....(see the full article...it's a good one!)
http://news.yahoo.com/10-reasons-better-renter-131800432.html
It's true. I've been both a renter when I knew the job would be short 3-5 years and I havce been an owner. I'd have to say I like renting more ...cheaper, more convenient an dmuch less hassle. Owning is a very time-consuming and super expensive "hobby" imo.
I didn't think the demand for Pascal programmers was that high.
The real bubble is in FRNs which is causing bubble in a broad range of categories. Stawks, bawnds, student loans, car loans, housing in certain areas. There aren't many categories out there that the fed hasn't distorted with it's printing presses.
I still think Computer Science is one of the only useful degrees and worth the investment (along with many other mathematics/engineering courses).
Sure there are loads of coders out there (especially when it comes to web and medicore mobile app development), but Computer Science is more than just coding.
Yes I study CS, and I don't plan to become a full-time "coder".
I do believe that we are in a 2nd tech bubble.
In 1990, CS equaled "How to use MS Office and Photoshop."
So I went the Electrical/Computer Engineering route.
Really, if so then you probably didn't get much of an ECE degree either. I have a BSCS, BSEE and MSEng all from University of Texas and the BSCS was not MS Office and Photoshop since those progams didn't even exist in the 70s but I know that by 1990 when I got the MSEng, the CS dept was pretty highly rated and it still wasn't MS Office and Photoshop. Maybe you got your degree online or something or you are confusing a CS curriculum with IT which they teach at some places out of the business school.
I attended State U. about the time of a sea change. CS was shit because all the focus was on the big, bad-ass engineering school. Nobody, and I mean NOBODY with any sense went the CS route. It was a totally worthless degree, given the cost.
That UT was "different" means little considering I wasn't there. Well, other for the smug assholes it seems to produce. Seems like they're everywhere.
Must be that "Austin Weird."
Yes, the only worthwhile endeavor in this life is writing mobile apps or designing the next greatest killing machine for Lockheed. The world would be such a better place if we were all engineers and coders, right? Same old ZH claptrap. ZZZZZZZZ
You have an incredibly narrow, ignorant view of what developers and engineers can do for you. Jus sayin'
Believe it or not you could build your own cluster-computer networks & your own robots and code for those.
They could do whatever you needed, provided you could afford the hardware. Then you could sell kits for how to do it.
Some kid did this with lego robotics & made a Braille printer cheaper & better than any on the market. KID. Like age 12 or something.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0YfnKB1zWOU
No amount of 'coding' expertise will help you with this:
[quote]
An example of how a typical end-user specifies what kind of computer
program they want you to design:
Dear Mr. Architect:
please design and build me a house. I'm not quite sure of what I need or
want in a house, so you should use your discretion.
My new house should have between 2 and 45 bedrooms. Just make sure the
plans are such that bedrooms can be easily added or eliminated. When you
bring the blueprints to me, I'll make the final decision of what I want.
Also, bring me the cost breakdown for each configuration so that I can
arbtrarily pick one.
Keep in mind that the house I ultimately choose must cost less than the
one in which I currently reside. Make sure, however, that you correct all
the deficiencies that exist in my current home. I'd allow you to view my
current house to help you understand and avoid the problems that I'm refer-
ring to, but I'm afraid that it may interfere with your creative abilities.
Also keep in mind as you design this house that I wish to keep yearly
maintainance costs as low as possible. This should mean the incorporation
of the latest technological advancements in siding & insulation. If you
choose not to specify aluminum siding, be prepared to explain in detail.
Please make sure that modern design practices and the latest materials
are used in constructing the house. The house should be very nice.
However, be alerted that the kitchen should be designed to accommodate my
1952 Gibson refrigerator and any other items with which we don't wish to
part.
To assure that you are building the correct house for my family, make
sure that you contact each of my children and in-laws. My Mother-in-law
will have very strong feelings about how the house ought to be designed
since she visits us at least once a year. Make sure that you weigh care-
fully all suggestions made by family members and make the right decisions.
I, however, retain the right to override any decisions you make.
Please don't bother me with details right now. Your job is to develop
the overall plans for this house. Get the big picture. It's not appro-
priate at this time to be choosing such things as the color of the carpet,
although you should keep in mind that my wife likes green.
Also, do not worry at this time about acquiring the resources needed to
build this house. Your first priority is to develop detailed plans and
specifications. However, once I accept the plans, I'll expect to have the
house under roof within 48 hours.
While you are designing this house specifically for me, keep in mind
that sooner or later I'll probably sell the house. It should appeal to
the largest number of potential buyers. Please make sure, before you
finalize the plans, that there is a consensus of the population in my area
as to the desirability of the features included in the house.
You are advised to look at my neighbor's house, which he constructed
last year. We like it a great deal because it has many features that we
would like to have in our new home, particularly the 75-foot swimming pool.
With careful engineering I believe that you can design this into our new
house without impacting the construction cost.
Please prepare a complete set of blueprints. I's not necessary at this
time to do the real design since these blueprints will used only for
construction bids. Please be advised, though, that any resulting increase
in the cost caused by future design changes will result in your getting
your hands slapped.
You must be thrilled to be working on such an interesting project such
as this. To be able to use new kinds of construction and to be given such
freedom in design is something that doesn't happen very often. Contact me
as soon as possible with your design ideas. I'm most enthusiastic in
seeing what you develop.
Sincerely,
Prospective Client
P.S. My wife has just told me that she disagrees with many of the
instructions that I've given you in this letter. As the architect, it is
your responsibility to resolve these issues. I've tried in the past and
have been unable to accomplish this. If you can't handle this, I'll have
to look for a new architect.
P.P.S. Perhaps what I need is not a house at all, but rather, a travel
trailer. Please advise me as early as possible if this is the case.
[/quote]
Might want to focus on graduation rates instead. It takes four years to get the degree and lot's of people that enter into the engineering and computer science programs finish with a different degree.
yeah I had the same thought: how many will stick with it for the 4-5 yrs?
like a lot of folks start out "pre-med" but can't hack the courses. CS aint a cakewalk degree.
Very true, most of my classmates changed their majors by the second year and those that didn't needed more the 4 years to get their degree. That being said there are already too many coders looking for work in my area and a lot of our expansion has been in India with little to no new hires here in the US.
Eh, it's starting from a fairly low base. In the case of CMU you are talking in the thousands.
It may also be the "digital entrpreneurs" that have become extremely wealthy in recent years. I bet once a lot of these folks figure out what being a computer science major is really like they will switch.
LOL, the CMU thing is just applicants. Look how many they actually accept.
...they're gonna find out the hard way that I'm not a pussy if they don't start treating us software people better. [/Michael Bolton, Office Space]
I'VE GOT PEOPLE SKILLS!!
http://youtu.be/RAY27NU1Jog
I don't think that all these budding coders are planning on working on WS.
I assume that it is a healthy outgrowth of the realization that if you are going to accept huge debt, you might as well get a job that allows you to pay off that debt.
Now add in the the humorous part: Relatively speaking, a person of average intelligence with an interest and determination can teach themselves coding and even computer science. Such a thing would be much more challenging in most of the other areas of study highlighted.
Not true. You don't know what you don't know ;-)
A theoretical knowledge can be obtained in nearly all fields thanks to the Internet. Nearly all undergraduate studies at universities are theoretical. The humorous (or sad) part is that universities are obsolete, yet their attendance grows exponentially.
"The humorous (or sad) part is that universities are obsolete, yet their attendance grows exponentially."
The even sadder part is that the universities have to teach obsolete materials. I'm working for multi-billion dollar companies still using AS400, fax modems, Server 2000 and DB2. I mean WTF!?
Shouldn't COBOL be on yer list? :>D
Do they all work for Microsoft ?
Any good coder knows a Windows machine requires atleast 256MB of RAM to display a 100 x 100 pixel GIF image otherwise machine will crash.
Yeah, but what about animated GIFs?
Exsqueeze me but that's now raised to a gigabyte and at least two cores.
I just updated Chrome on my old workstation, and even Chrome has tripled their RAM requirement in the last two years. Thanks Google, good going.
Y'know, back in the day, a woman I knew had just gone to work for IBM, and her assignment was to investigate the mainframe IMS data engine to see what they could do to support more simultaneous users in one megabyte of core/RAM, and that was (at best) 2 microsecond core, on a 1.0 megahertz CPU. LOL. A year later I had some similar gigs at another company.
I'm just saying, now it takes a gigabyte of 9 nanosecond RAM to say, "hello world".
And that's what happens when you hire a monkey and pay him bananas to write your code.
We live in the best of all possible worlds.
I've been a software developer for over 20 years now. It has been an excellent career and I would recommend it. I've been out of work a total of 3 weeks in that 20 year period. The industry is changing howerver. The languages are simpler but the business problems being programmed are getting more complex. Our company oursources many programmers from the Philipines while the architectural design is done in the U.S. Entry level programming is sort of like the machinists of the past century. It is becomming more of a commodity.
And yet without entry-level there is no entry.
At all.
How can you recommend that? I wouldn't waste my money upgrading my coding skills already having a comp-sci degree.
I'd go be a welder and work on a farm and see if anything anywhere needed some computer skills on top. Work's more reliable, more fulfilling & more productive.
Is it a bubble if many of these new code readers and writers are needed at all of those shiny new giant data collection centers all over the U.S. and around the world?
http://www.wired.com/2012/03/ff_nsadatacenter/3/
Bizarre. There hasn't even been an employment recovery since the last dot-com bubble in 1998-2001, and the kids are piling back into CS? Haven't they heard of the million+ H-1B's that have been brought in? Do they not understand that wage statistics are only inflated because NYC and SFBay are the two most expensive places to live in on the planet?
Maybe a little research would help them out -- Microsoft, Yahoo, and Facebook, the companies that these youngsters probably idolize, receive literally thousands of resumes per actual person they hire. The chances of employment as a CS grad are quite minimal.
Those who down-arrowed me, care to explain why?
pitz - The chances of employment of a CS grad with a BS from a good school are excellent, far better than almost any other degree. I speak from experience.
Nope. You are clueless. Pitz speaks the truth. The purpose of US immigration policy is to suppress American wages. It is that simple. Furthermore, this policy has been extremely effective.
I am a highly skilled, knowledgeable IT professional (Java programmer as well as an expert in Linux, Web administration, CMS's, etc.) and I have been unemployed for YEARS. Pitz speaks the truth.
-- Paul D. Bain
paulbain@PObox.com
I'm gona go out on a limb and say it's either your chosen combination of technologies, your location and an unwillingness to move or you just plain suck.
I dont even have a 4 year degree and I've been a dev for 18 years. Never once spent more than a month unemployed. And ya, I've been laid off 3-4 times. And ya, I still make that much money.
18 years ago, it was possible to get into the sector as long as you could show some skill. Then the 2001-2003 collapse happened. New grads' resumes were tossed into the garbage. Only foreigners were considered for employment. More H-1B's have been imported to the sector in the past decade than actual jobs created. Domestic grads under the age of 35 are rare in the tech sector. They exist, they're the ones causing the Yahoos and Googles of the world to receive literally hundreds, sometimes thousands of resumes per job. But firms don't even bother to respond to them as they're hell bent on cheap foreign labour.
So please don't blame the previous poster. There's probably nothing wrong with his skills. There's everything wrong with the job market and how poor it has been.
Sorry, but if you're an experienced dev and been unemployed for YEARS, my money says "sucks" is high on the list. There are way too many not google and not Yahoos out there to be unemployed for years as a competent dev. Dunno who else you could even credibly blame.
I met a dev back in 2005 and worked with him for a few years. It didn't take too long to figure out he kinda sucked. I had a random thought abt him a week or two ago and went and looked him up on Linked in. Dude hasn't wrked ANYPLACE longer than it would take an employer to figure out he pretty much sucks. And when that catches up with him and he becomes unemployed for YEARS, i'm gonna stick with - he sucks.
Doubtful that he sucks. Firms just aren't actually interviewing and hiring enough people to actually make a determination like that. And very few outfits have hired domestic programming talent in a long time.
"aren't actually interviewing...very few outfits have hired domestic programming talent in a long tim"
BS. Sorry, you don't know WTF you're talking about. Good grief, talk about 'cant actually make a determination like that'
Like I said, unwillingness to move and all that... You may be talking about the hot shit Silicon Valley stuff, but there's a whole other country out here besides California (like I also said - the not Yahoos and not Googles).
Google "Salt Lake City new Silicon Valley". Sorry poopy pants - he just sucks.
And I'm going to return-fire and say that to get that job this man has to be willing to take half the wage which won't cover the cost of living anywhere the jobs are on offer, OR, that 1 job will be on offer with thousands of applicants without moving.
If you're not sucking the government teat working for the military doing it, you're not likely to see a wage any decade soon on this one.
What are your specialties, roles, and industries, Pinkleton? If you're with a Big 4 Firm, Silicon_Valley Startup Connection, I-BM'd, ORACLE, UNCLE_SAM and/or its Subs, it's understandable.
I've been on the Front End side of the House, working with BI/OLAP/ERP/RDBMS, Financial / Defense / Aerospace / Pharma and other industries. I bill at 75+/Hr; and can bill more if I were back in DC-BOS Corridor (which I need to - ^_^).
This market truly bites; and has been for years. Vendors are backstabbing each other, Major Firms are trying to hire people at FT for a fraction as one would be brought in as a Systems Integrator while piling on H-1Bs and hiring newbies on the cheap, Staffing Slime are offering rates at less than 40% of Market; and are undercutting the independents with shit-for-brains who usually costs the client more time and money.
LA is a doomed blackhole of a Brain Drain in the making since everyone who hires White Collar Pros (outside of Lawyers) are leaving the area. Nissan, Northrup Grumman, and now Toyota are packing up to leave. For awhile there, the Studios and Mortgage Banking used to be the last holdout until the bottom dropped out in 2007.
I went from the big companies (AIG, Countrywide) to smaller ones you've likely never heard of when I left California (and $50+/hr) 10 years ago. But I've made my way back to making more than that salaried (with literally 1/3 the mortgage) so I'm not complaining. The mainstay of my career has been in the Mortgage, Financial and Insurance industries, tho I've done food service and auto. I write in C#, but I'll sneer while doing Visual Basic too. I do most of my work for web based software (ASP.NET) and prefer to not to do front end. As far as my role, I prefer to be the person that solves the issues no one else can, which makes me the indispensable one (Which my boss actually put on my eval for last year).
Really? Why are entry-level jobs practically non-existent? Why are new grads exposed to all sorts of unprofessional interviewing tactics? I know its pretty bad for general Arts or Science majors, but CS is no walk in the park either finding a job wise. Don't be fooled by all the propoganda out there. There's a reason why Microsoft, Google, Facebook, etc., are receiving several thousand resumes for each software engineer they hire.
I can't see how a degree in computer science is any better than a certification in it. Like what does going to school get you? Dedicating time to it?
When does coding get moved to the humanities department with the rest of the languages?
Certification in SAP will get you in the neighborhood of $200,000 a year depending on the SAP module you certify in.
Sometimes they want the college degree, but not necessarily with these certifications.
It's true, I'm the CTO of a 75 year old insurance company and have no degree. Barely any certifications as well. Over 20 years experience though.
tried to pay my bill yesterday. blue-shield, down for maintenance.
cause you're an idiot.
I have been a software engineer over a decade. While I understand how software increases efficiency and so forth, I often question the purpose of it all. At the end of the day all I have done is rearrange bits on a disc - a disc that may never even get out to customers. And even if it is used, all it will do in the long run is reduce meaningful conversation. I wouldn't discourage others from pursuing IT, but I'd caution them to not neglect what is most important in life - meaningful relationships and interacting with God's creation. The virtual world we have created is a cheap, fake substitute for the real thing.
Also, software jobs are being lost to H1B mostly Asians if it is not being directly off-shored.
I've been on many projects when a vacancy occurred for a software developer American candidates weren't even considered and another H1B was in-sourced from Asia.
Job security, maybe the Defense contractors, maybe.
Hope they spend the four years learning soft skills~ they're going to need them.
Probably a natural inclination considering that kids going into college at this point have never known life without the internet and mobile phones. If they had a degree for social media distinctly, i would bet it would have the highest wannabe enrollees.
"Communications" is pretty much that.
Funny NOT how MSFT's "control model" for global software has perverted the market for software coders that we need armies of code drones imported annually just to run an OS, and have to update it constantly along with all our hardware and yet are NEVER secure.
I think we have too many coders.
Linux. Volunteer coder-army, free OS & programs.
Always secure: no way to hide back doors or a virus in code that's reviewed always & viruses need machine code. Compile on-the-spot for installing & no virus will be in there.
Don't use windoze.
Ever wonder sometimes, if Linux didn't exist, whether or not the software profession would have more pricing power? After all, when I first got started in the industry, a Unix workstation with compilers was at least a good ten-20 grand invnestment -- creating a number of R&D giants in the industry. When Linux and x86 took over, firms like SGI, Digital (DEC), and Sun circled the drain and were relegated to the dustbins of history.
If you could go back 25 years, don't you think the software world might be a better/more profitable place if someone had just bought Mr. Torvalds and his open source founding brethen some nice kit?
profitable for corporations but then raping the computer users all around the world.
I'd rather we all had the knowledge & didn't make profit for the corporations.
With no Linux I'd probably own no computer as the operating system would be too expensive, restrictive & insecure. I'd just disconnect for good. Not worth the bullshit.
If "we" don't make profit for "the corporations", then just who exactly is supposed to pay us?
No one and as it should be.
The best living is one where you pay yourself and not in dollars but in saved time & in produced goods. The last thing we need is to be corporate slaves enriching CEOs and getting inflated fiat dollars.
I think none of those jobs should exist.
1. 50% won't graduate
2. 75% don't know, or will change, majors
3. 50% of those who graduate will suck at programming
4. the chart shown in this post is for one specific school.
The original data does show significant increases, but other studies don't reflect this, so who to believe? The original U of W pdf comes across to me as an advertisement. Perhaps they are worried since all this stuff can be self-taught and isn't worth paying 6 figures for?
Also, other articles around the web show high unemployment rates for computer programmers at the same time businesses claim their is a skills gap. Both are true. (see #3 above).
Um, did this post wander off the original topic or wot?
I've been doing this CS/IT thing for a long time, the real wages have been falling steadily for over twenty years thanks to Greenspan backing the H-1B thing, and yes, some "maturation" of the industry. But the sociology or anthropology or "soul" of the field has changed, too. Anyone writing code (sic) is seen as a code monkey, a technical position on the order of a master plumber or journeyman electrician. Why that should require a BS I have no idea.
But at the same time the Internet and the smart phone have opened up the universe of entrepreneurship, and the most absurd things can make millions and billions of dollars. What kid wouldn't want to buy a ticket to that lottery? In economic terms it's a very low barrier to entry and a very low need for capital.
And what choice do kids have, an English major will leave them flipping burgers anymore, medicine puts you through the gauntlet, and the majority of lawyers barely get by. Compsci, or Information Systems, or whatever, that will turn you into a code monkey, is a nice bet on a useful trade. Some of the work is interesting in a nerdy, autistic way. The classes tend to be way easier than any hard science.
But it does look like a bubble, twice the size of the 2001 bubble in code monkeys who graduated into a job depression.
I entered code-monkeydom professionally in 1992. I rode most of the wave up to 2000 and survived the bust after, then rode the rising tide again to now. I don't know how much longer I can keep doing this...there's only so many times you can completely retool your skill set only to have it be obsolete within a year or two before you just want to say to hell with it and go start a tree service or tend bar or drive cab or anything that doesn't involve computers much.
But I will say that it's a good, useful trade that has done a hell of a job paying the bills. The H-1B folks never bothered me much because the ones I worked with mostly either were unintelligible in their English and nobody could stand working with them because they couldn't understand/relate to them, or they filled temporary niche roles that went away soon enough. So basically I had interesting colleagues that were no long-term threat to my job...and even if they did I always ended up moving on within a few years anyway because of companies collapsing, code base maturing, layoffs, utter boredom or whatever.
But, but... retooling is fun, right? I consider myself a perpetual learner. I burnt out once, but it's because I wasn't doing what I loved. Now I found my niche in IT and I find that I can dig deeper within that niche and it suits me well.
me too.
You said:
Yah. I can hardly count my retools at this point, and it's fun when you're moving forward but after a while some of the retools are backwards and it just ain't right, but the kidz next to you have no idea. When VMWare was just rolling out to the Wintel universe a few years ago one of the sysadmins was all puffed up about it and wanted to enlighten me. Had to tell him I was using VMs in year xxx, which turned out to be when he was in kindergarten.
It's been a good trade for me, too, but decreasingly so. You have been majorly affected by the H-1B whether you know it or not or ever even talked to any, they've cut the real wages in half since your first year. As a newbie you probably still saw increases as you gained experience, but the slope kept going down. If you figure 5% inflation every year, are you making more money now than your first year, or less, in spite of your experience?
What I have against the H-1B is that it cuts wages and also that it devalues the profession, the average H-1B is much more about cheap than competent and soon the whole industry is structured only for cheap, barely competent, and culturally very very passive workers. Of course there *is* an escape hatch, you can go off and be an entrepreneur, if you think you're so damn smart. That's not for everyone, and it involves a lot more than being a code monkey, but if you're super lucky you can be the code monkey for an organizer, and come out rich, and this is much more true today than before the Internet, and smart phones, and gigahertz/multicore/gigabyte ram/terabyte disk/cheap workstations.
I can't blame even a half-smart kid for trying, but it's like any field and only a small percentage of the population has the raw talent to ever be really good at it, so a LOT of these hopeful students never will be, and who needs second rate code monkeys?
I think we have a particularly vocal group of youngsters, many of whom are still in college, who are commenting on how great CS is. And indeed, internships that pay reasonably well (relatively speaking) are reasonably abundant for college students.
The real trouble starts when they graduate. Their "starting" salary, if they're lucky enough to find a job (most CS grads can't find jobs) can be higher than average for majors. But salaries then remain very stagnant. When their friends in other professions are pulling their salaries up dramatically in mid-career, the CS grad, if even employed, is sweating bullets over being laid off due to H-1B's. Not to mention that most of the "jobs" for CS are in the highest cost centres, so that allegedly high starting salary really is, at best, lower middle class for a given area.
far, FAR worse.
My cost of living is probably less than 40% of what it would be in LA, San Fran, Vancouver, Toronto, any number of places.
So if my annual income adjusted for REAL inflation of REAL things like rent/mortgage, electric/gas/etc., food, isn't 2.5x what I have now, then I'm actually losing and losing PERMANENTLY given the very accurately stated stagnation.
In the end sticking to the low-cost area to live is better for me on every time-frame but a CS career is toast.
Tech is one of the few hopes that the US has to maintain it's edge, globally. The US DOES have an edge ahead of much of the world when analyzed in absolute terms. Tech is the key to moving that edge forward.
but....the government gets more involved with tech and communications each day and that's what really scares me. They will do to the tech industry what they have done to the others.....absolutely ruin or corrupt them.
We can never have too many coders and engineers. Understanding how computers think is a useful skill today and it will be more useful tomorrow as machines start taking over. Having too many coders is like saying too many people know how to read.
The problem with too many coders is that lots go unemployed and the resume queues end up being so full of resumes that some hapless HR clerk just throws up their hands and starts picking them at random. Which is what appears to be happening these days, especially at well-known tech companies that receive thousands of resumes per position.
When you have that random selection element in the recruiting equation, then it is no longer a meritocracy, and a significant number of extremely bright and talented people are simply left behind.
If the medical doctor profession got glutted, the same thing would be happening as well. Plus the low salaries for software talent ultimately serve to drive people out of the field.
Then we should be learning coding, medicine, home-steading & various other skills ALL on our own NOT for corporate slave-masters but for our OWN lives.
Spungo wrote:
You are clueless. The USA has FAR too many IT professionals, largely due to unrestricted, LEGAL immigration. Remember, the purpose of US immigration policy is to suppress American wages. And that policy has been extremely effective.
-- Paul D. Bain
paulbain@PObox.com
I'd argue that H-1B is mostly illegal immigration, as firms effectively make false declarations (ie: a 'shortage' of workers) in support of such. But until we see some real law enforcement, or even private RICO prosecutions against the H-1B abusers, nothing is going to change.
Focussing on the "malevolent investments" and not the original crime of theft is the same as sanctioning the theft.
If somehow the counterfeit found its way into "beneficial investments" would that make the theft okay or is theft still theft?
I can tell you this, I'd much rather have a computer-science major running my cash register at a soon-to-be-closing American Eagle store than someoen who majored in basket weaving.
Really? The basket-weaving major, you can train them on the art of bullshitting the customer ("no, sir, that pair of jeans on the shelf is not sold at 90% off online, its a one-of-a-kind item!"). The CS major, not so much, because they had to, in the course of their studies, actually learn how to build and implement real stuff. Compilers are notoriously fickle when it comes to BS.
Also, the CS major probably won't be happy with $9/hour. Expectations are much higher. At least the CS grad has the delusion of eventually having a career. While the life goal of many generic Arts grads is to find a rich spouse, spread their legs, and let nature take its course.
as a comp-sci grad of '00 I approve of this message.
+1
Beware, the next political revolution will be coded.
We're going to need more stuxnets..hence more coders. Remember most will find out they hate it and wait tables as plan B.
Most won't even have their resume looked at by the firms allegedly hiring, as they're hooked on foreign guest workers, and already receive thousands of resumes for each position hired.
It's essentially pointless to become a comp-sci major now.
There's so much outsourcing to India and for the right price that won't ever change.
There's also very unstable contracts available that if a person's not up for it who just graduated, there's a person who graduated 10 to 15 years ago but isn't out of date and willing to do that contract for cheap. That person's already committed, isn't going to switch fields & has debts, not just the debts of school but those plus the debts of living costs with declining, stagnating income.
So students: you are screwed. You should have been learning Mandarin & Hindi, not C# & Java.
There's a reason so much more is becoming open-source, operating system & all. There's so many coders they need something to do in their spare time to keep thinking, keep practicing & show off to prospective employers that they are up to date with current projects desired by the public.
You sound like someone who flunked out of compsci. At my university, our class size started with about 45 and ended up with 20. I had no problem finding a job, but I took a job working for the Navy where I'm guarenteed employment for life on a engineer's salary. Perhaps I will end up working for a defense contractor in a few years. Regardless, I have no competition from foreigners because a secret clearance is required to work in the defense industry.
Precisely. It never seemed to make any sense to me that coders would pride themselves on giving away their talents, without demanding significant and substantial remuneration.
I think coders of open source software would be horrified if they were truly shown the riches created, for the financial elite, and for a selected few others, from their unpaid software. The theory of open source, that everyone contributes, and its a virtuous circle, is great, but very few users of the software actually give anything back to the "community".
At some level, the open source community also damages the innovation revenue model. There is no point in the private sector funding significant research into a new operating system, as there can be no assurance that the open source people won't just find some way of usurping or "copying" it. There's an OS called "Plan9" which was started by the famous Unix-creating Bell Labs -- correcting a number of architectural 'problems' with Unix, but it will probably never see the light of day as a commercial product as there's simply nobody out there to pay for the development.
I disagree. When it comes to the value we all get from opensource software it doesn't matter that some people can make riches from how they use some of it.
Also some have licences saying they can't be used for profit and copyright law does take effect there.
The gains to us personally from secure free software & operating system far, far outweigh the "gains" you'd gamble for by making more "income" in a rigged market for wages, food prices, rents/mortgage & gas/oil by refusing to make free software.
I'd be far, far more horrified to know everything I want is at the highest price possible from Raytheon, Intel, IBM, Microsoft, Goldman Sachs, Monsanto, and I can starve homeless if I don't like it.
Fuck that noise.
Developing software is like creating art, unless you're born with talent, your work will always suck.