Market Breaks Out - Is This The Mania Phase?

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management,


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Duke Dog's picture

" is unclear how far the advance will go considering the drag from reduced liquidity inflows by the Federal Reserve." - stopped reading right there!

Anyone that believes the Fed has, or can, stop inflows is not worth reading. When they "actually" do stop the inflows - the entire World financial system Ponzi (the greatest in the History of the World) - collapses immediately into a steaming pile of shit.


zaphod's picture

You've got it wrong, printing a mere $65B/month instead of $85B/month is tough love austerity for the country, and not reckless currency debasement. CNBC told me so.

Duke Dog's picture

You missed my point - in they have not reduced jackshit. Where do you think that $140B in proceews from the new Belgian debt of Treasuries went.


If anything, the "inflows" are increasing at tens of billions every month. They're tricked idiots into believing that QE is the fucking truth. That isn't even a cunt hair  to what is going on in reality.  Thieving Psychopaths!

gdpetti's picture

And done backdoor style through currency swaps... off the books... perfect, as long as everyone in this FU Buddy game thinks they'll be the winner..... remember your Game Theory? Just like in the Highlander film, "In the End There Can be Only ONE!' So far all the psychos here in the States have kept the rest of the players in line behind us.... but the closer you get to the end of the game, the most restless they become... ie, watch your back, buddy, here I come.

machineh's picture

'backdoor style'?

Now you've got the president's ear.

Bangin7GramRocks's picture

Duke Dog bringing the thunder!

Fuh Querada's picture

absolutely. Jim Willie estimates $200billion per month minimum to prevent the mortgages and interest rate swaps from caving in. The Fed is a bunch of liars, anyone who believes what they say about some monthly official QE figure deserves all they get.

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

p'shawwww the FED! Fed numbers?
I get all my reliable numbers from the Bureau of Lies and d'Septions.

bescobar's picture

Unfortunately, I'm not buying that. 

ZackAttack3's picture

Correct, they say they have decreased to 85 billion per month but since no one can audit the fed, no one knows for sure.  They could have been increasing for all we know

ZackAttack3's picture

Correct, they say they have decreased to 85 billion per month but since no one can audit the fed, no one knows for sure.  They could have been increasing for all we know

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

We need a new term for this.
The only way to look intelligent is to make up words for shit that isn't true, doesn't matter or is always misrepresented.
Since this is "reduced" in-"flow" of funds from the infinipress, how about we call it "unflows"

Sudden Debt's picture

well, the nasdaq is cleary over the top already and is going to go into correction mode as of tomorrow me thinks

Al Huxley's picture

3 Billion POMO tomorrow, so you'll have to wait until at least Friday.

MountainsRoam's picture

Damn I hope we get a correction, at this point with my losses mounting in May, a 5% correction on the QQQ in the next week would be an ass saver with my puts haha Lets bring back some kind of volitility damnit, I have been a lousy trader as of late, cause I have been relying on to many fundametals and logical trades based on many economic conditions that scream sell mofo, sell!!

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Why you wasting your time with puts against the market?
VXX, FAZ, UVXY, HVU (TSX) are all market inverses & big ones with no time limit.
Options expire, these shares don't. UVXY & HVU both are -11x inverse to the market.
HVU's equation generally is 219 = HVU (1/11) x SPY, generally UVXY / HVU = 9.1 as well so this is easy to convert. VXX is around -4x

For the numbers I'm reading now of 4.1 HVU & 192.37 for SPY (1920.03 SPX), the math is

4.101/11 x 192.37 = 218.698

As you can see the SPX & SPY don't precisely line up but for -11x movement it doesn't matter.

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Aneeeeeeeey second now!
I better go short with all margin available right away.

Spastica Rex's picture

So much wisdom in those three little repetitions.

HaroldWang's picture

Certainly looks like markets always go up in that chart. 

RaceToTheBottom's picture

I am still in phase 1.

I am stuck there until reincarnation.

Tulpa's picture

Another chart with the author drawing very iffy trend lines on it to support his argument.  How come the "Phase 2" market behavior doesn't look remotely similar for any of these cycles?  One of them is going down and the others are going up, and the dip during Phase 2 in the current bull market looks like a dip occuring earlier during "Phase 1".

Spungo's picture

It'll keep going higher as long as the fed doesn't stop printing money and nobody starts dumping US treasuries.

agstacks's picture

Belgium can help with both those issues.

unwashedmass's picture

surprise! Russia and China have already started....why do you think the "vast wealth" of tiny Belgium was tapped this past month to buy up orphan treasuries? 

Bay of Pigs's picture

We are way past the mania phase for stocks.

GFORCE's picture

This is the 'time for a healthy correction before further gains' phase!

ebworthen's picture

"Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, shame on me."

Not buying stocks ever again.

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

bu...bu...bu...stawks have dividendz & divid-ends R income!

nosoeawe's picture

whoever uses the term "bull market" (in the context of the past 6 years) is a complete asshole, ignorant, fucking douchebag. the best part of you ran down your whore of a mothers leg. shoot yourself and all your children mongrels.

a bull market doesn't need 80 billion dollars of counterfeit USDs in order to go up. you got that dumb fuck? do you understand that simple concept?

the fucking son-of-a-bitch who wrote this shit encrusted farce is continuing the outright myth orchestrated by the albino midget and big eared jive turkey that the US economy is great - just look at the stock market.

again, i'll repeat myself for the brain dead, financially illiterate, fuck sticks - a bull market doesn't need billions of counterfeited USDs in order to go up.

If it wasn't for the big eared jihadist in chief and his boot licking, shit eating constituents the market would accurately reflect his failed administration and be trading at 666.

which ironically and accurately represents the cloven hooved, satan excrament eating jihadists currently masquerading as politicians and economists.



CultiVader's picture

Try writing with some passion next time.

chubbyjjfong's picture

Well said sir! Reminds me of 'LongSoupLine'!! God I miss that magnificent bastard! 

Goldilocks's picture

dumb money.... GTA (grand-theft-auto) bucks.

machineh's picture

Below zero GDP print tomorrow morning ... 'n the market freakin explodes.

ForWhomTheTollBuilds's picture

I hope we see both.  Just so I can laugh myself to death before 9:30 AM

HardlyZero's picture

We still need to go through...

Phase Zimbabwe, or Zimbabwe Phase

As the fiat currency value collapses and the hyper-printing launches, the stawks will zoom to da moon, before the Kraken appears on Wall Street.

The squid is so intertwined Zimbabwe Phase may be the only possible outcome here on out.

(when $500, $1000, $5000, $10000 currency is trendy)

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

1 kerjeelyun berzillyun dollerrrrs!

wait, all as ONE note?

ummmm that's not how we did it in Belgium.

FranSix's picture

Ahem.  The BKX has started correcting.  *quickly ducks back into a corner*

andrewp111's picture

Nothing precludes a super mania phase that doubles the market from here before the final crash. After all, things really are different this time. Short rates are pegged at zero. Central banks are targeting stock prices. Mr. Yellen herself said that it will be at least a year before the Fed raises rates. Right now interest rates are falling fast - and that is very bullish. Corps are buying back record amounts of stock with cheap credit courtesy of the Fed.  And last but not least, Obama wants to keep Senate control. My guess is the market continues to go up, at least until the election and any critical runoffs.

And with interest rates this low, we can't have a crash until all the stats exceed the records set in the 2001 peak. And I do mean all the stats and indicators that you see in ZH stories.  Right now, a lot of valuation measures and market stats have exceeded the 2007 peak, but still don't hold a candle to 2001. When every stat beats 2001, then you know the crash is nigh.

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Time to break out the Dow 30k hats!

15k is so 2013

Duffminster's picture

I predict that the manufactured concensus -0.5 will be blasted apart with an upward revision to 2.5% growth pusing us into the final leg of a double blow off top.  Then the correction can take place with conviction

Not Goldman Sachs's picture

Come on in, the water is fine...oh wait Benny and Janet peed in the shallows providing liquidity. Might want to wait for the cleansing. On the other hand summer is short, don't wasn't to miss this swimming season.

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Adding liquidity = we threw Pirranhas into the pool. That's what y'all really wanted, right? Right.

kurt's picture

I see a blowtop toot off at the cruxtaposition desteam pressurization tripple blast-flume side hammer cronk.

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

See, now if Warehouse 13 hadn't been finished off with a short final season, there'd be a cursed artifact to do that.