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The Middle Class Will Die Within 30 Years Leaving "A Wealthy Elite & Sprawling Proletariat"
If we continue down this path of ignorance, we will be left with a "tiny elite and a huge sprawling proletariat" who have no chance of "clawing their way out of a hand-to-mouth existence," is the loud and clear message from UK government advisor David Boyle. As The Telegraph reports, Boyle cautions, "we won't own our own homes, we won't be able to afford it," adding that "we cheerled the rise of property prices not realising that it would destroy, if not our own lives, but the lives of our children." His conclusion, "the middle classes have to wake up to prevent it happening and to create a political movement that will do it."
Authored by Sarah Knapton via The Telegraph,
The middle classes will die out within 30 years because of rising property prices, which will rob today's children of their dreams, an economist has warned.
Speaking at the Hay Festival he warned that Britain will be left with a ‘tiny elite and a huge sprawling proletariat’ who have no chance of ‘clawing their way out of a hand-to-mouth existence.’
He predicted that the average house price will reach £1.2 million by 2045, putting a home beyond the range of most people as wages fail to keep up with huge increases.
Boyle said that the traditional middle classes will need three or four jobs just to be able to pay soaring rents. People will no longer have the space or time to pursue cultural interested.
And he blamed bankers bonuses for artificially inflating the property market.
“The really scary thing is if in the next 30 years house prices rise as much as they have done in the last 30 years then the average house in Britain will cost £1.2 million,” he said.
“We cheerled the rise of property prices not realising that it would destroy, if not our own lives, but the lives of our children.
“The place where this is heading is a strange society with a tiny elite and a long struggling, straggling line which is the rest of us, a new proletariat, who will be in hock to Landlord PLC.
"We won’t own our own homes, we won’t be able to afford it.
“It will constrain our dreams and constrain the dreams of our children. It’s a new kind of economy where there are no middle classes at all.
“Nobody in society will have the kind of space in their lives, space in their homes, space in their careers for any kind of culture at all, because we will be having three or four jobs to make ends meet
“I think will impoverish society make it more intolerant and make it more difficult to live.”
Boyle claimed that one of the major problems was Margaret Thatcher abandoning The Supplementary Special Deposit Scheme, known as the ‘corset’ which limited how much banks could lend for mortgages.
Although the scheme kept house prices low in the 1970s, Boyle said it was unlikely that today’s buyers would accept having to wait for months for a mortgage.
Instead, he suggests a ‘parallel’ housing market were new homes were sold at the initial price for 100 years.
He predicted that without such a radical solution, mortgages will be inherited and only be paid off by the grandchildren of the original buyer.
“We were rationing mortgages in the 1970s, that’s what kept prices low and I don’t know if we will accept a time again when you have to wait,” he said.
Boyle said the rise in Ukip was fuelled by disaffection of the middle classes.
“You saw this huge revolt. I think what happens when you suppress the dreams of the middle classes is you get rather peculiar and very dangerous political movements beginning to emerge,” he argued.
“That doesn’t forgive people voting in the neo-facists but it does somehow explain it.
“Very unequal societies are very inflationary societies and in the end it drives out those other degrees in society until it becomes very flat and very desperate.
“The middle classes have to wake up to prevent it happening and to create a political movement that will do it. I don’t think Ukip is it.
“You could say that it doesn’t matter and that a more classless society would be a good thing.
“I think if there is no place in the middle that anywhere can go to claw their way out of desperate hand to mouth existence, and the precariat, then that condemns us all to a precarious existence because there is no ladder.”
Boyle sits on the Liberal Democrat’s federal policy committee and was commissioned to write a report into access to public services by the government, which was published last year.
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Rising housing prices are great for homeowners, but for everybody else they're awful. How is a 28 year old married couple with 44k in debt supposed to afford a 640k house?
30 years? i'm figuring by the end of the summer...
America is voting for it. The voted for the snake oil sales for two TERMS. Till that changes nothing will change.
it's not a new kind of economy...its quite old....it's called socialism....
F*CK KOLLEKTIVISM
Like I've been saying since I first came to ZH: Small number of rich, large number of poor, just enough middle class to service the rich. Same as it's been in most societies throughout most of human history. Giant reversion to the mean for the US.
Could it be stopped? Yes. Will it? No.
I don't buy that this article is realistic. We are heading in that direction as a society, yes, but that stuff with the houses is kinda far fetched. Its just a bubble, which will pop. When the serfs can't afford the houses because they are too expensive, the prices will come down to a lower level. Take the US for example. The fed can't suppress interest rates below what the market would dictate forever( although lately it has seemed that way), and when they inevitably go up, prices for homes will fall again. People that are buying 300k homes on a 30 year at sub 4 % aren't going to be able to buy a 300k house at 6.5-7%, even though that used to be pretty normal. Therefore, home prices must drop again. This is what happens when central planning blows an asset bubble to in realistically high prices. Assuming home prices will keep shooting up indefinitely makes no more sense than assuming the S&P is going to keep going up 30% a year.
"America is voting for it. The[y] voted for the snake oil sales for two TERMS. Till that changes nothing will change."
- Lionhearted
Actually, they voted for it six times in a row, but the two middle ones were stolen by the other party.
Property taxes don't increase beyond normal inflation in rural America. Jobs might not be plentiful but they never were.
A scant piece of land is still very affordable and hasn't increased much at all. Mobile home over the last 15 years. Cheapy entry level 2000 = $20k Today on sale $23k
So drive a beater car for 6 years instead of $600 a month payment, bingo homeowner almost paid for.
My property taxes just went up $1500/year because some "investor" way overpaid for the abandoned house next door to mine (and it was in bad shape). I wonder what I won't buy with that money.
The fate of many homeowners in the US. Your property taxes are not only going to go up, but WAY UP!
30 years ?? this can only mean that the sheep will remain sedated for 30 more years.
As the IRS officer assigned to your case I am very interested to know how you plan to pay the increase in property taxes, considering that you have filed zero taxable income for the last 5 years.
"My property taxes just went up $1500/year because some "investor" way overpaid for the abandoned house next door to mine (and it was in bad shape). I wonder what I won't buy with that money."
Next time....make it so that the authorities wonder why the place burned down and what all these wild pigs are doing munching on the grass. Takes care of your carpetbagger investor.
Actually the other party is the same party. It matters not who technically "won" those elections the transfer of wealth upward would have continued just the same. The Uhmerican public gets a "choice" of voting for the same shit no matter what color costume it wears.
That timeline seems optimistic
Sept. 27th - Oct. 1st 1995 San Francisco: exclusive meeting of the globalist "elite". Only three journalists were allowed. Among them Hans-Peter Martin, at that time working for German Spiegel and Die Zeit.
Martin reported what was discussed and envisioned there.
In his best selling book "Die Globalisierungsfalle" (trap of globalism) 1996 he reported about the targeted shape of society: "rich countries, without middle class - and nobody disagrees."
19 years have passed since this conference. An article in Spiegel Online about Portugal's current situation:
Portugal leaves the Euro rescue shield, but the people are paying a high price for it. Severe austerity measures have destroyed the middle class, social security nets have been destroyed, 2.5 million people are living close to poverty.
http://www.heise.de/tp/artikel/41/41841/1.html
Gary Allen's book "The Insiders" was already written in the 1970s. In this book, written at a time while the sheeple were still distracted with the East-West-conflict (the red globalists in Moscow and the orange globalists in New York both share the same goal), Allen explained the aim of the globalists to the US audience: destruction of the middle class.
Fifty years ago Adolf Hitler had declared war on this plan and prophesied this outcome. When he took power in Germany, the German farmer class was close to extinction because of overindebtedness, while the banks and speculators had grabbed everything since 1918.
Hitler removed the speculators' grip on the economy, threw them out of Germany (which allegedly was very evil), destroyed the influence of the banking cabal on politics, turned things from the head on the feet, by making the currency serve the economy and the economy serve the people and not upside down, the people serving the economy and the economy serving the money. He was successful in removing the farmers' debt and the foreclosures of their farms, rebuilt a strong German middle class, where one salary could easily feed a family, jobs were secure and almost for a lifetime, children were extremely well educated, learned self discipline, valuing traditional values, the mass learned to care about the nation and it's future generations, educated them about the lie of "free media" and to never become debt slaves again, but if someone wants to buy something, he has to work hard and save for it.
Therefore the red and orange globalists fear Hitler (and similar movements all over the world) like the devil fears sacred water.
Get real, fraud-fiat is syndicated power. The entire world economy is synthetic bullshit from top to bottom.
Don't be the fool that thinks that "homeland security" will protect the rich.
The rich are lunch - those "without" simply aren't hungry.
Yup. Nowhere near 30yrs before the SHTF. Mr Boyle fails to note, this is all by design.
Taking out a 300 year loan. I believe it approached that at the height of the Japanese housing bubble. Basically, indenturing your offspring and theirs.
Indenturing isn't the word, but slavery is.
Good thing the cuffs are fake, just like the economy.
proles and animals are free.....
Two legs baaadddd, four legs goooood. Baaaaaaaaa
Animal Farm.
Baa
Orwell did say that the only hope left was with the proles.
If you leave your selfish interests and emotions out of it, and also think about the next generation (your kids, etc), rising home prices are just another part of the Fiat+FRB Ponzi.
Why should an aging (and depreciating) assets be worth MORE over time? No good reason. It's the FIRE (Finance, Insurance and RE) industries that keep ratcheting up the prices for their benefit. If we're honest about it, and cut the bullshit.
+1. A house is a depreciating asset, like a car, boat, capital equipment, shoes, or a gallon of milk. It does not produce income or value, and it will crumble to the ground eventually. It was painful to watch people buy into the housing bubble nonsense that a house was an investment that would ONLY go up.
I tried to tell people that the only reason a house should ever double in "value" is if you walk into the kitchen, turn on the faucet, and crude oil drips out. But nobody ever got my meaning. Granite countertops trump common sense.
you forgot running a sweatshop in your basement. That's a productive use for a house. Other than that it's just a sink for electricity, nat gas, water, capital (taxes), etc.
Oh, and some of the earlier granite countertops are radioactive.
Is it possible to have an interest which isn't "selfish"?
Just wondering.
They aren't. They are taking on more debt then they can service. Try a less expensive home and then upgrade later on.
the fiat / speculative bubble economy leads to bubbles and price dislocations?
what? that's crazy talk.
Problem in the UK/City is that housing prices are rising because Russian and Middle Eastern oligarchs are buying properties for the purpose of money laundering, not to actually live in them.
Boyle calls UKIP fascist? LOL.
Anybody who believes in not letting in every Tom, Dick and Harry into their country is labeled a fascist in Europe. Oh wait a minute, that applies here in the US also....
He recommends putting a 100 yr cap on the price of a house? This guy is clueless.
Rent.
A government leech is telling us that government will destroy what we know of the middle-class... and his solution probably involves government.
You can't make this shit up.
Government will provide a solution ... we will just keeping voting more fascists in until we get one on top who's crazy enough to not get bought and smart enough to not get killed and that's when we get a reset.
Sure, now if you'll excuse me, but I must find my unicorn skittle shitting at the end of a rainbow.
For all the screaming about gold's traditions people here seem awfully quick to discount history repeating in other ways.
+1 You're correct Marco. But it will most likely be a diversion.
You can't, Boyle's party are Keynsian idiots. Round and round we go.
Solution? Become a butler, valet, lackey or handmaiden. At least you'll be the first on the receiving line for food leftovers and hand me down clothes. You'll live on the inside where the private armies protect you, not on the outside where rogues rule the night. You'll also speak perfect English and you might be allowed to marry and procreate after a while in service.
Hmmm.. Lackey sounds alright. Is that like a yes man? I can do that.
Or work for gov't.
Well doesn't Marxist/Leninist theory demand the destruction of the middle class in order to free the proletariat?
We seem to going into a blend of Marxism/Leninism and Crony Capitalism. I suppose it defines the New World Order.
oh I think we are there...I just don't know how far the pendulum (ax) will swing.
See it two ways.
First there is a struggle between huge business and government (not necessarily the marxists as the marxists want to overthrow the government and replace it with their own creation). Each has elements that want total control but they can't be outright hostile because, in reality, they need each other at this point in time as if the economy were to totally collapse then neither would survive.
Secondly, the marxists very well might be using crony capitalism as a means to their end. They need to concentrate wealth and power in order to be able to seize it with their relatively small numbers. Suppose the big banks collapse again and take the whole economy with. What is a marxist to do? Why not nationalize the banks and take control of the money supply (and your own destiny). In that light it is in the marxists' best interest to encourage overlevering and all sorts of bad behavior.
I think the banks are being given the ropes with which they will hang themselves, quite literally. A novell could be written about all of the possibilities, especially if you throw in the MIC and the intel "folks".
A wealthy elite & sprawling proletariat is the fastest guaranteed way how to overthrow the elite; kind of elite suicide. Any blend of Marxism/Leninism would sooner or later ignite uncontrollable anger because of apparent poverty, restrictions and inequality. A personal experience.
NWO = Feudalism with flat-screens.
Yes and this asshole Boyle and his think tank are working overtime on it...here's some:
http://www.neweconomics.org/blog/entry/climate-change-time-to-end-the-tug-of-war
"Boyle sits on the Liberal Democrat’s federal policy committee and was commissioned to write a report into access to public services by the government, which was published last year."
Boyle accepting funds extracted from the proletariat, yes I know, shocking ;-)
“The really scary thing is if in the next 30 years house prices rise as much as they have done in the last 30 years then the average house in Britain will cost £1.2 million,” he said.
Where is my flying car? Things will be seriously 'effed up LONG before 2045...
Every Country has its "glory years" where innovation, technology, production and economy are at their peak. Egypt, Rome, Greece all had theirs thousends of years ago.The US had theirs in the 20,s , 30s, 40s and 50s.
RIP USA.
You are right. Every civilization reaches its peak. There is this common conception that things in the future will always be better than when they were in the past. Unfortunately, that isn't necessarily true. The Egyptians knew how to blow glass. We know this because we have found very delicate blown glass earings found in the tombs in the valley of the kings. Unfortunately the art of glass blowing was lost for over 400 years when the Romans invaded. So yes, things can get worse before they get better and things can get lost to history and rediscovered much later.
What is this "American Civilization"?
Do you mean Western civilization? Because that's what the US represents. The only thing that made the US different from Europe was Capitalism and Freedom from Gov. That's how it became so succesful in such a short time. We no longer have this.
There was capitalism in Europe long before "America" was eve on the map. "Capitalists" have always operated with "freedom from government", usually because they were either part of government, or controlling the government.
Maybe you mean something about the market economy that operated in the US, but the rich always have, and still do run everything. Being out of the reach of government, essentially in wilderness, is not freedom from government...
What made America "great" was the ability to dispossess entire peoples and cultures, appropriate their land, and then exploit everything, without regard for the future... once that was learned, north america quickly ran out of land and people to exploit... so we started doing it GLOBALLY.
If that's what you call "successful"...
well said, TweedleDeeDooDah.
the truth is never pretty but it will set you free.
Actually, the success of the US post WW2 was an annomolie. It was due to all the manufacturing in Europe being destroyed and the US being the only game in the world. Fast forward to today; we now have all production being exported and tech eliminating jobs at the blue and white collar level. We really don't need as large a workforce in the current environment. However, with consumption and demand deminishing due to lower wages and fewer jobs, companies are having a hard time selling their wares. I think this is a result of all the M&A over the years where you have fewer companies controlling the means of production coupled with outsourcing to cut costs.
Bottomline, we can't continue down our current path. It's unsustainable and always has been. Only now is that becoming clear to everyone. The reset will take place and must do so. I think we have already started seeing the gears in motion. The next crash will be the last crash. I think we will see it in the next 5 years or less.
In the US, the "Golden Age" is known to be the post WW2 era. You know, when the upper income tax bracket was around 90%.
Coincidence? I think NOT.
You think the 30s and 40s were good? IDK what calendar (or dissociative deliriants) you're on.
within 10 years.
Two more years of Obama, then 8 years of Hillary. Seems about right.
LMFAO. It's funny cause it's true.
Holy crap! Someone else finally woke up and realized that high home prices destroys the economy and low home prices greatly benefits the economy.
I almost can't believe it. Usually nobody but me notices things this obvious. Okay, okay, I exaggerate... but only slightly.
But seriously, this is so true... and so obvious. When the price of the largest expense in the lives of most individuals drops to low levels... that leaves so much more of each paycheck available to... spend on everything else. Which... surprise... is a synonym for "more demand" == "better economy".
And, of course, when home prices are where they should be, people can save for a while, then pay cash. At normal interest rates, 2/3 of the money spent on mortgage payments is interest... not the price of the home. Which means, when people can pay cash, that 2/3 (which is hundreds of thousands of dollars on average), is available for REAL PRODUCTS rather than PAYOLA TO BANKSTERS.
No matter how you slice it... a monumental crash in the housing market would be the single most beneficial event possible for the economy... and the middle class.
-----
Here's an amazing idea. Interest rates zoom to 25%. Nobody can afford a mortgage, and the demand drops dead. Prices collapse. Finally... at perhaps 1/3 the current price levels... cash buyers appear and prices stabilize. Leave the interest rate at 25%. Nobody is willing to borrow any more, so no debt, and no money is utterly wasted on interest payments. Banks shrink to a tiny percent of the economy, but the demand for other products shoots through the roof since the entire paycheck is available for spending on goods and goodies, since there is no mortgage payment to pay.
Never mind... I was dreaming. The predators-DBA-banksters will never let that happen, and they control government. And the predators-DBA-government will never let that happen, because they need to borrow at super-low rates to avoid interest on the debt from exceeding tax revenues.
THe credo of every good parasite.
Rule 1 Do not kill your host.
The number of empty homes because of the dieoff and families living together will drop prices too.
"Although the scheme kept house prices low in the 1970s, Boyle said it was unlikely that today’s buyers would accept having to wait for months for a mortgage.
Instead, he suggests a ‘parallel’ housing market were new homes were sold at the initial price for 100 years.
He predicted that without such a radical solution, mortgages will be inherited and only be paid off by the grandchildren of the original buyer."
Wait. He's proposing 100-year mortgages as a solution to a problem created by credit expansion? Pls tell me I'm misreading this.
No, he is proposing socialized housing which can't be sold for anything but their initial price.
Ah. Thanks. He does say "without" such a solution we would need 100-year mortgages.
Although I still think it would be more expedient to reintroduce risk into the lending market.
Sounds clever until you realise you have to make laws and force people to keep their "own" homes in good repair for that to work.
Slowly withdrawing bank financing for buying homes too will solve the problem of house prices spiralling up.
Simply a regression to medieval systems of low energy .
Everybody gets poorer , eats less , fights more , get really cold in winter .
Small , quarreling states , ferociously homeostatic and zenophobic .
There is a way out : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elinor_Ostrom
But humans will rather go extinct than (like viking Greenlanders) than change .
it's lonely in the saddle if the horse is dead .
Screw this jerk -- "peculiar and very dangerous political movements", oh, like UKIP? No, we must stick with acceptable movements like the Liberal Democrats. What a pig.
Sometimes a Snark is a Boojum , or a pig is a Boar
"we cheerled the rise of property prices not realising that it would destroy, if not our own lives, but the lives of our children."
Ok, let's see: the rise of a commodity's price results in the destruction of a generation's lives [sic] or that generations's children's lives [sic].
That is just utter BS. How about some editorial discretion, Tylers?
Prices don't rise... the medium of exchange is devalued. That is never good for you and I, just those who do the devaluing.
as others have said 30 years seems overly optimistic
My foresight is 2020.
(pun intended)
I'll be living in another country way before then, america I love you but it's time for us to go on our seperate ways.
As soon as my wife is done with her loan repayment plan for her college we are out.
Yep. The smart people will leave the country. Think of Russia and the opportunities there as it continues opening up - the land and resources are vast. And other emerging economies as well.
"The Middle Class Will Die Within 30 Years Leaving A Wealthy Elite & Sprawling Proletariat"
Ah yes, BUT at least in the US, the "Elite" have never had to contend with a Proletariat that had so many 50cals and 308 sniper rifles in their hands. Many have marksmanship badges since they were 10.
And more than a few of them know WHO the elite are and WHERE they live.
It will be a very different depression I think maybe.
Haha, that is actually a good point PRO gun ownership. Here in Europe we don't have that luxury, though an angry mob can do a lot of damage also.
I think something smaller would be more appropriate in tighter quarters.
What an idiot. In a truly free market the average price of a single family home would be affordable for a family with an average income. Any and all sustained disconnections are caused by government intervention.
I thought I was the only one reading this with a brain. Thank you for posting that!
Hahahaha....!
And this guy blames only "banker's bonuses"??? How conveniently class struggle-ish. How conveniently socialist. How conveniently "99% vs. 1%"! The masses LOVE it when someone sets up a villainous "evil rich" target so they can play victim...
NOT ONE WORD ABOUT MONETARY INFLATION, fractional reserve banking, central banking or fiat currencies!
This is not a Class thing .
It is a failure of Civilization .
This has happened many times before .
If cities become too expensive in real terms , humans just walk away .
Many , many times .
Just look at the ruins of Detroit .
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2014/05/evanescence-of-cities-iii.html
Friday, May 16, 2014
Evanescence of Cities III Evanescence of Cities III Andre Willers 16 May 2014 Synopsis : Now humans are deserting cities just after they built them , but before they lived in them . Discussion : 1.Ghost cities of China . Built during a property bubble, no attempt to find buyers . Now crumbling into ruins . 2. A big one : http://gizmodo.com/welcome-to-the-worlds-largest-ghost-city-ordos-china-1541512511 3.There are so many . It is just unbelievable . https://www.google.com/search?q=ghost+cities+china&newwindow=1&rlz=1C1CHMO_enZA577ZA577&espv=2&es_sm=93&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=0mx2U4q0BuTH7AbVtoHoDw&ved=0CCwQsAQ&biw=1366&bih=653
Nary a human . China has built more than 500 of these empty cities since the cultural revolution in 1978, with hundreds more set to come online by the end of the decade. All deteriorating into ultra-modern ruins as we speak . 4.Where does all the money come from ? Gullible westerners , mainly Americans . They evict their own citizens from their homes and build ghost cities half a world away . Another triumph for capitalism . 5. Old style abandonment : See Appendix AA . Evanescence of Cities . At least the city had some use . 6. But this is a new style of abandonment . They walk away just after they built it . Not just one . More than 500 full cities , turning into ruins . 7. This dwarfs Ozymandias by Shelley Not exactly what old Percy had in mind . Conspicuous consumption driven to its extreme . Hundreds of cities of ghosts . I wonder what future archaeologists would make of it ? “I met a traveller from an antique land Who said: Two vast and trunkless legs of stone Stand in the desert. Near them on the sand, Half sunk, a shatter'd visage lies, whose frown And wrinkled lip and sneer of cold command Tell that its sculptor well those passions read Which yet survive, stamp'd on these lifeless things, The hand that mock'd them and the heart that fed. And on the pedestal these words appear: "My name is Ozymandias, king of kings: Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!" Nothing beside remains: round the decay Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare, The lone and level sands stretch far away.” 8.Why do humans do this ? Their ability to build cities have obviously outstripped their willingness to destroy them . They rebuilt Europe in 10 years after bombing centuries of brickwork flat . (WWII) Yet they continue to build cities , even though they immediately abandon them . Superficially it seems like economics . But humans will continue to build , even if they cannot afford it . My pyramid is bigger than your pyramid . 9. They just like it . I considered many fancy psychological reasons , as well as historical ones . The only one that held water was that humans simply liked to build things . Even if it had no purpose , they would still build it , just for the hell of it . 10 . Then tear it all down , or bomb it , or just walk away . This is just an excuse for itchy fingers to start building new things . 11. No hovels required . The impulse to stone is simple : there is no satisfaction in dismantling a hovel . But , dismantling the pyramids . Now there is something . So , paradoxically , the ghost cities are built to enable them to be demolished . Everybody feels satisfied . The Capitalist exploiters made money . The Greens get to recycle the ruins into new instant ruins. The proletariat might not get to stay in these fancy new apartments , but there would be some work for them . 12. New Art-Form . Transform a new ruin into a newer ruin , or into an old ruin . Things could be worse . You might have had to stay in one of these Palace’s of the People . Suffice to say that the bottom apartment ceiling of a 20 story block of flats that leaks when it rains Time to reach for Thor’s Hammer : the real one . 13. The Kali Effect . Destroy and Create . When in doubt , smash it , then use super-glue . Stickily yours Andre xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Appendix AA http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2014/01/evanescence-of-cities.html Sunday, January 05, 2014 Evanescence of Cities Evanescence of Cities Andre Willers 6 Jan 2014 Synopsis : Cities are created and abandoned ad hoc . Discussion : 1.Humans build cities and discard them . 2.A city is a hierarchical machine . 3.This is tolerated , because the concentration of capital by elites enables nifty things like Literature , Science ,Culture , Opera , etc. 4.But it also enables professional military soldiers . 5.If the balance between City with soldiers and Soldiers with a city shifts to the latter , the whole city evanesces . Taxes . 6.Examples :Any Empire , Maya , Angkor Wat , middle East , Europe . Every place is lousy with ruins of cities where they just walked away . This is the norm . Everybody likes to think the barbarians conquered . But they just walked into abandoned palaces . 7.Basically , a tax revolt . The population does not even decrease , but is redistributed into smaller units . 8.Can this happen today ? Yes ,funnily enough . I thought that the driving force of cities was higher population densities . It used to be that the removal of population from the food production area increased production . This is no longer true . Even cities can be self-sufficient (with a bit of effort) 9.Evanescence of Cities : 9.1Gobekli-Tepe and their ilk . Cities were invented and used ad-hoc for a specific purpose , then moth-balled . 9.2 Detroit and Hamashima Island Present day examples . The City served it’s purpose , and is then abandoned, mothballed or re-purposed . 10. Are Cities obsolescent ? Too early to tell . Some will be kept for nostalgia . But people have been leaving cities for decades . Like Suburbs . 11. What I am trying to say , is that within decades you can walk through the ruins of New York , London , Amsterdam , etc . The people will still be there . They would just have walked away . The burden became too onerous . 12.Will population drastically decrease ? Not necessarily . You are substituting Virtual Cities for Real Cities . In previous civilizations , they became unglued because of the professional military not being funded any more . So they simply took it . But they most sincerely would prefer to be on the payroll . 13. Present USA situation : Academi (formerly Blackwater) The largest Mercenary group . Well , at least they won’t run out of funding . http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Academi 2010 Academi[edit] In 2010, a group of private investors purchased Xe's training facility in Moyock, NC and built a new company around it named Academi. The new ownership instituted a Board of Directors and entirely new management system, including a full compliance and governance program. The Academi Board of Directors includes former Attorney General John Ashcroft, former White House Counsel to President Bill Clinton and former Chief of Staff to Vice President Al Gore, Jack Quinn, retired Admiral and former Director of the National Security Agency Bobby Ray Inman,[33] and Texas businessmanRed McCombs, who serves as Chairman of the Board.[34] Jack Quinn and John Ashcroft both serve as Independent Directors of Academi.[35] In May 2011, Academi named Ted Wright as CEO.[36] Wright hired Suzanne Rich Folsom as Academi's chief regulatory and compliance officer and deputy general counsel.[37] The Academi Regulatory and Compliance team won the National Law Journal's Corporate Compliance Office of the Year Award for 2012.[38] In 2012, Brigadier General (ret.) Craig Nixon was named the new CEO of Academi.[39] 14. As long as the Tax situation remains stable , and free-lance security services are loyal to the government , the cities will continue to evanesce . Quite rapidly too . Expect more Ruins of Detroit ,or Orleans ,or Chicago . 15 . Remember : people just walk away . Like the Maya , Angkor Wat , Detroit . They are still there in their numbers . Just disgusted with the whole enterprise . The City no longer enabled a better living or larger population . 16.This is deeply rooted in Human Societies .The memes are there . If the politicians are stupid enough to overtax (38% upper threshold) , people just walk away . 17. I would be surprised if any large city exists in 50 year’s time . This advice is tax-free. Andre .
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I hate it when people use too many paragraph breaks.
Capitalism isn't responsible for the outsourcing of jobs. That's about where I stopped reading.
Capitalism isn't responsible for outsourcing jobs????
What planet do you hail from?
This is not a Class thing .
It is a failure of Civilization .
This has happened many times before .
If cities become too expensive in real terms , humans just walk away .
Many , many times .
Just look at the ruins of Detroit .
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2014/05/evanescence-of-cities-iii.html
Friday, May 16, 2014
Evanescence of Cities III Evanescence of Cities III Andre Willers 16 May 2014 Synopsis : Now humans are deserting cities just after they built them , but before they lived in them . Discussion : 1.Ghost cities of China . Built during a property bubble, no attempt to find buyers . Now crumbling into ruins . 2. A big one : http://gizmodo.com/welcome-to-the-worlds-largest-ghost-city-ordos-china-1541512511 3.There are so many . It is just unbelievable . https://www.google.com/search?q=ghost+cities+china&newwindow=1&rlz=1C1CHMO_enZA577ZA577&espv=2&es_sm=93&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=0mx2U4q0BuTH7AbVtoHoDw&ved=0CCwQsAQ&biw=1366&bih=653
Nary a human . China has built more than 500 of these empty cities since the cultural revolution in 1978, with hundreds more set to come online by the end of the decade. All deteriorating into ultra-modern ruins as we speak . 4.Where does all the money come from ? Gullible westerners , mainly Americans . They evict their own citizens from their homes and build ghost cities half a world away . Another triumph for capitalism . 5. Old style abandonment : See Appendix AA . Evanescence of Cities . At least the city had some use . 6. But this is a new style of abandonment . They walk away just after they built it . Not just one . More than 500 full cities , turning into ruins . 7. This dwarfs Ozymandias by Shelley Not exactly what old Percy had in mind . Conspicuous consumption driven to its extreme . Hundreds of cities of ghosts . I wonder what future archaeologists would make of it ? “I met a traveller from an antique land Who said: Two vast and trunkless legs of stone Stand in the desert. Near them on the sand, Half sunk, a shatter'd visage lies, whose frown And wrinkled lip and sneer of cold command Tell that its sculptor well those passions read Which yet survive, stamp'd on these lifeless things, The hand that mock'd them and the heart that fed. And on the pedestal these words appear: "My name is Ozymandias, king of kings: Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!" Nothing beside remains: round the decay Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare, The lone and level sands stretch far away.” 8.Why do humans do this ? Their ability to build cities have obviously outstripped their willingness to destroy them . They rebuilt Europe in 10 years after bombing centuries of brickwork flat . (WWII) Yet they continue to build cities , even though they immediately abandon them . Superficially it seems like economics . But humans will continue to build , even if they cannot afford it . My pyramid is bigger than your pyramid . 9. They just like it . I considered many fancy psychological reasons , as well as historical ones . The only one that held water was that humans simply liked to build things . Even if it had no purpose , they would still build it , just for the hell of it . 10 . Then tear it all down , or bomb it , or just walk away . This is just an excuse for itchy fingers to start building new things . 11. No hovels required . The impulse to stone is simple : there is no satisfaction in dismantling a hovel . But , dismantling the pyramids . Now there is something . So , paradoxically , the ghost cities are built to enable them to be demolished . Everybody feels satisfied . The Capitalist exploiters made money . The Greens get to recycle the ruins into new instant ruins. The proletariat might not get to stay in these fancy new apartments , but there would be some work for them . 12. New Art-Form . Transform a new ruin into a newer ruin , or into an old ruin . Things could be worse . You might have had to stay in one of these Palace’s of the People . Suffice to say that the bottom apartment ceiling of a 20 story block of flats that leaks when it rains Time to reach for Thor’s Hammer : the real one . 13. The Kali Effect . Destroy and Create . When in doubt , smash it , then use super-glue . Stickily yours Andre xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Appendix AA http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2014/01/evanescence-of-cities.html Sunday, January 05, 2014 Evanescence of Cities Evanescence of Cities Andre Willers 6 Jan 2014 Synopsis : Cities are created and abandoned ad hoc . Discussion : 1.Humans build cities and discard them . 2.A city is a hierarchical machine . 3.This is tolerated , because the concentration of capital by elites enables nifty things like Literature , Science ,Culture , Opera , etc. 4.But it also enables professional military soldiers . 5.If the balance between City with soldiers and Soldiers with a city shifts to the latter , the whole city evanesces . Taxes . 6.Examples :Any Empire , Maya , Angkor Wat , middle East , Europe . Every place is lousy with ruins of cities where they just walked away . This is the norm . Everybody likes to think the barbarians conquered . But they just walked into abandoned palaces . 7.Basically , a tax revolt . The population does not even decrease , but is redistributed into smaller units . 8.Can this happen today ? Yes ,funnily enough . I thought that the driving force of cities was higher population densities . It used to be that the removal of population from the food production area increased production . This is no longer true . Even cities can be self-sufficient (with a bit of effort) 9.Evanescence of Cities : 9.1Gobekli-Tepe and their ilk . Cities were invented and used ad-hoc for a specific purpose , then moth-balled . 9.2 Detroit and Hamashima Island Present day examples . The City served it’s purpose , and is then abandoned, mothballed or re-purposed . 10. Are Cities obsolescent ? Too early to tell . Some will be kept for nostalgia . But people have been leaving cities for decades . Like Suburbs . 11. What I am trying to say , is that within decades you can walk through the ruins of New York , London , Amsterdam , etc . The people will still be there . They would just have walked away . The burden became too onerous . 12.Will population drastically decrease ? Not necessarily . You are substituting Virtual Cities for Real Cities . In previous civilizations , they became unglued because of the professional military not being funded any more . So they simply took it . But they most sincerely would prefer to be on the payroll . 13. Present USA situation : Academi (formerly Blackwater) The largest Mercenary group . Well , at least they won’t run out of funding . http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Academi 2010 Academi[edit] In 2010, a group of private investors purchased Xe's training facility in Moyock, NC and built a new company around it named Academi. The new ownership instituted a Board of Directors and entirely new management system, including a full compliance and governance program. The Academi Board of Directors includes former Attorney General John Ashcroft, former White House Counsel to President Bill Clinton and former Chief of Staff to Vice President Al Gore, Jack Quinn, retired Admiral and former Director of the National Security Agency Bobby Ray Inman,[33] and Texas businessmanRed McCombs, who serves as Chairman of the Board.[34] Jack Quinn and John Ashcroft both serve as Independent Directors of Academi.[35] In May 2011, Academi named Ted Wright as CEO.[36] Wright hired Suzanne Rich Folsom as Academi's chief regulatory and compliance officer and deputy general counsel.[37] The Academi Regulatory and Compliance team won the National Law Journal's Corporate Compliance Office of the Year Award for 2012.[38] In 2012, Brigadier General (ret.) Craig Nixon was named the new CEO of Academi.[39] 14. As long as the Tax situation remains stable , and free-lance security services are loyal to the government , the cities will continue to evanesce . Quite rapidly too . Expect more Ruins of Detroit ,or Orleans ,or Chicago . 15 . Remember : people just walk away . Like the Maya , Angkor Wat , Detroit . They are still there in their numbers . Just disgusted with the whole enterprise . The City no longer enabled a better living or larger population . 16.This is deeply rooted in Human Societies .The memes are there . If the politicians are stupid enough to overtax (38% upper threshold) , people just walk away . 17. I would be surprised if any large city exists in 50 year’s time . This advice is tax-free. Andre .
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LIMACON, WTF man!!
You can cut and paste, yay!
Truncate that shit yo'
cities<more moving people .........eighties throwback
Farage just doesn't like people cutting in line.
If he thinks Farage is a neo-fascist, then he must not be aware of Cameron's existence.
The spewed moniker of neo fascist is the decades old dog whistle of communism/socialism. It's lke Amerika's dog whistle of "racism."
Wait. Sounds like Deflation is good for the folks !!! Seems like no one can figure this simple solution.
Seasmoke Wait. Sounds like Deflation is good for the folks !!! Seems like no one can figure this simple solution.
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Inflation or deflation is bad for folks. Inflation kills purchasing power. Deflation kills jobs. A steady currency is preferred. That has never existed.
30 years?! LOL
DC US has less than 3.
Middle-class is already toast, they just won't realize it until the Petro$ goes "poof."
These long term forecasts generally are totally casino.
Correct !
But Monte Carlo Casino .
Where you are limited in the number of random , democratic choices .
Like Henry Ford said , you can choose any colour as long it is a shade of black .
In the long term , everybody lives forever .
It is only in the short term that you die .
Birth and death actually are illusions. The self is eternal. Get out of the matrix when in the human form of body. Hare Krishna!
The problem is that the Middle Class, hell, anyone in this country has technically never gotten paid. We've been paid in promises with IOUs stamped on little pieces of paper called Federal Reserve Notes that they get to print up when the government needs more money. We 'discharge' our debts but never actually "pay" for anything. If you've never paid for it, you don't own it. And if you pay for it with a 'note' the person who owns it is the person that issued the note.
The Middle Class is already toast. But then that's what happens when you don't have real money. We just have debt masquerading as money and capital. You're not going to fix anything until you fix the monetary system first. Everything else is just noise.
LOVE your handle!
I'm going to say there's about a 99% chance western societies collapse into fascism. This isn't even a bold claim since we've seen it happen before. Germany, Italy, and Spain all had fascism. The UK was pretty close to fascism around that time as well (1930s). USA is quickly sliding into fascism. UK is pretty much already fascist with tons of cameras spying on everyone.
Communism seems unlikely because communism generally pops up when the majority of people are serfs. I don't mean like working at walmart for no money. I mean like actual serfdom where the entire country is owned by a handful of land owners. The concept of killing rich people and stealing their land is very appealing in situations like that.
I guess the Hunger Games was a window into the future.
there are a lot of things unique in the UK relative to other countries in Europe, US and far east - very expensive place already - outside of housing - train fees, gasoline, food are very very high - NYC is cheap in comparison - i dont see how people do it
what the UK produces outside the financial industry - all can be serviced much cheaper elsewhere - once Scotland bolts what do they have left?
Slavery by any other name...
We are all negroes now.
But, painting a target on one's forhead just ain't all that smart in the neighborhood I come from...
"No, he is proposing socialized housing which can't be sold for anything but their initial price"
I'm sure that would end well. You buy your house in 1980 for 60k and you can only sell it for 60k in 2014 even though a new house of similar quality and size would be 300k. Obviously, it wouldn't make any sense to sell your house. EVER. This would drastically reduce the number of houses on the market. Anyone wanting to buy a house would be forced to buy a new house, probably at an inflated price because the supply of houses is suppressed. People moving would buy a second house without selling the first house. The old house would then be rented out and its rental income would pay for the mortgage on the second house. This creates a spiral where the people who have houses keep accumulating more houses then hand them down to their kids. The housing shortage due to a lack of speculators and investors would drive up rental costs so people renting would have no hope of ever saving enough money to make a down payment on a house.
Shh, your logic will confuse them and then they'll try and set the current price at the forward price (100 yrs in the future)... to make it fair, ya kno'.
LOL, Middle Class Will Die Within 30 Years.
Just issue arms and boiled rope to the mobs and point them to the places like the Hamptons and gated communities, problem solved.
Mises, Hayek and Friedman are laughing in hell saying "Our job is done, mwahahahahaha!!!"
Yeah, because the Fabians drew their inspiration from Mises and Hayek.
Yeah, because Fabians are soooo relevant... Go look for another Bin Laden mate.
The majority of the middle class has been fake for at least 40 years. It was built on debt, not hard work/savings. I'd guess that 80% of the so-called middle class has a net worth of zero.
There are loads of cheap houses in this country. In my hometown in New England you can buy a 1750 farmhouse, in good shape, on 2 acres, asking price 181k.
But there are no jobs.
Agrarian society may be the next major trend.
Friends of mine are moving to the country and painting their mailboxes blue with trailing vines and doo doo.
Hat tip to Taj Mahal. Great song, Great plan.
"Are you ready for the country? Cause it's time to go..."
Will the US Finacial system last past august ? that's the question
The wheels are coming off this cart as we speak.
Cull the serial rentiers. If you are British, then you know who they are, and how they acquired the properties that they do not really own.
Or form a tenants union and have a rent strike.
(& then cull the rentiers).
Here is the problem. The main function of life is to live it to its fullest potential. In that way the future unfolds in such a way that reality becomes part of that change. In other words the future and ourselves are tied together. It is not that everything already exists and is found through science and technology but rather that science and technology work with what the population of individuals is capable of working with. Reality and the mathematics and physics that define it change as we change. If technology exceeds human capacity due to physical constraints then humans will become merged with technology.
By centrally controlling the environment of the individual the world is thrown out of balance. Life will not continue within the dynamic of reality--of existence.Such superiposed conditions will destroy what has come about before humans can adapt
We will come rejoicing bringing in the thieves.
Get ready for the 10-40-50 world
50% of the population no hope, no chance.
40% - The old middle class, better off than the 50% but at the same time not much money, they do have jobs though.
10% - The Elite
The 40% are employed by the 10% to keep the 50% at bay...
I think the 10-40-50 world has always been true. The 10% will always exist....because they work harder, are smarter, luckier, more talented, prettier, whatever.
The bottom 50% (or more) will always exist. They are not smarter, luckier, etc. But the vast majority of them are able-bodied enough to work for the remaining 40% and 10%, as drivers, cooks, yard people, janitors, nannies, secretaries, personal assistants, what have you.
The left destroyed the notion that there is dignity in ALL work, and created a society where it's easier (and more profitable) to beg and take handouts than it is to work. Look at today's ZH article on youth unemployment. People don't realize what a huge problem this is. A huge percentage of an entire generation has NO idea what work is. That is unprecedented in this nation.
A lot of you on ZH cheer that. It's a mistake. Without an individual work ethic, they WILL collectivize and come after what the rest of us have.
So basically, exactly as in Elysium. I better get a nice Tattoo, a eye patch and a automatic machine gun.
So many possibilities...which flavor of dystopia will happen?
Will the world be like Blade Runner, The Running Man, 1984, Elysium, Idiocracy, Mad Max II The Road Warrior, Hunger Games, or some strange combination depending on one's location and means?
Sounds like Boyle finally finshed reading Piketty's Capital in the 21st Century, in which exactly this same scenario is predicted, i.e. we will be paying rents and mortgages to SAE and Qatar because they will own all the property on the planet. However, it will most likely not come that far, though it will need a progressive global wealth tax or a WWIII to curb the problem of increasing capital concentration at the peasants' expense.
which is why they keep ramming the 'climate change' down our throats. That is the gateway drug to a global tax to 'save' us.
Flip that little switch located on the side of your head to "think" mode...
You will be so much better off...
Yes - I am not surprised they have programmed some on a switch to 'think' the way they would like you to 'think'. I suggest you turn that switch on the side of your head to off.
Luckily I do not have such a switch, my brain works 24/7 without the need for Marxist marching orders.
Now go report me to the 'climate change' crowd - aka, the real elitists.
If you think that Global Warming is some kind of "socialist conspiracy to tax you" you are dumb as a box of rocks...
And if your reply to this contains only ideological clap trap or, at best, some lame discredited psuedo-science, that seals the deal...
Quite simple really....
Funny.
So if I disagree with your assertions that 'global warming' is a farce I am "dumb as a box of rocks..."
How very communist of you and yes global warming, climate change or what ever the latest misnomer is for this crap is a farce and a scam. When the actual facts and not government funded studies to produce the outcome they want, are reviewed, and there are many studies which in fact prove 'global warming' to be a farce, the facts speak for themselves.
Now put on your brown shirt and report me to the global warming crowd.
Perfect....
Exactly the response I expected...
Why not just say that I don't care about the science because I am too selfish to give a fuck about anything but myself...
At least you would be intellectually honest...
Obviously you don't care about the science because you are too selfish to give a fuck about anything but yourself...
Good, now the next step is to look in a mirror and say it...
An article pointing at the potential ability of the middle class of wreaking havoc... How unusual. Once in a blue moon...
It all starts with the resentment of the middle class in 'american' societies because the 'american' middle class is the ruling class.
When the master is angry, anger is to be discharged. As usual, the lower part is going to pay the price whereas the 'american' middle class will reward accordingly any of their political, economical, cultural etc servant who work at making the expression of the middle class anger satisfying.
It is how it works in an 'american' society.
Hunger Games. Yay!
Eliminate government guarantees for home loans. Stop backstopping banks. Watch house prices go to a reasonable level. Easy as pie.
A bloated middle class is affordable for any society only as long as there are capital resources (like fossil fuels) to expend or there is steady inflow of resources from outside (empires of the past). Middle class is also prone to actually believing the propaganda invented by the elite to keep the bottom rung from disrupting the society. So as the size of the middle class grows, the percentage of the society divorced from reality grows. In such a society when the reality (of depleted capital reserves/dwiindling ability to attract resource inflows) hits, the response will be the complete opposite of what would help survive. But there shouldn't be any tears when such societies collapse; there is a possibility for humanity to gain from that experience.
The problem with you Closet Marxists, is that reality has overtaken the 'ídeas' of Engels and Marx.
In many nations with large middle classes, there is a miniscule, or non-existant lower class to be ''oppressed''.
Sweden has to IMPORT a lower class, they don't have one.
How true Ler, the Marxists/communists/progressives/democrats, like a crazy person, keep applying the same stupidity expecting different results and when it doesn't work they apply more of the same shit wondering why-o-why it still stinks.
Sounds just like the supply-siders....
The current government 'representatives' are squarely in the socio-comm and fascist sector no matter what hat they pretend to wear.
They are more interested in staying in office for 40 years with all their perks including front running stocks, which is illegal for me or you.
You are so predictable....
At least you managed to use the correct description, fascist, likely by accident given your reliance on throwing vacous labels out there....
I am curious; what branch of government did/do you work for and what union are you a member of?
In a fiat money society, capital reserves are pure fiction ... as a result your argument completely falls apart.
I agree with your belief that energy is a limiting factor when the elitists control (through force ... elitists always control through force or the threat of force) the energy creation and distribution.
Most would see what you call, the "disrupting of society" as a natural reorganization of society to accommodate a deserved and equal access to resources.
Wealth concentration causes depressions. Depressions create massive wealth transfers - money comes out of the elites and goes into the pockets of others to create new elites.
The safest time for elites is during economic growth.
Sorry, this is only a potential. Yet its written as inevitable. It implies that human beings cannot find ways to adapt.
The social and cultural upheaval this kind of scenario would cause would likely create a revolution before it reached any of the potential consequences. Like its been said above, humankind would simply walk away from these cities and this way of living. Smaller, decentralised communities would spring up to offer an alternative, which is something I'd find preferable to the statist bullshit that's trying and, IMO, failing to force itself down our throats.
It's not really a question of reversion to the mean. Fact is we've already excelled beyond that state in the last century, I think we'd be more likely to destroy the place than accept a forced and crippling reduction in our standards of living.
Back to the middle ages; before the Renaissance age; aka 1492...Bye Bye Cristopher C !
Lets hope the Chinese reinvent the new silk route.