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What Happened The Last Time Bonds & Stocks Were So Disconnected?
Presented with little comment aside to note that bond shorts have not covered (in fact they added last week) and the last time we got this disconnected (with negative breadth in stocks and super low volatility) - things went south very quickly...
It's different this time though...
As an FYI - Treasury shorts lag the moves in rates - as rates rise, momentum gains and the world piles in short for the end of the multi-decade bond bull market... then each time they get over their skis and bond yields collapse... especially in 2011 when this last happened...
Charts: Bloomberg
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are we going to grow super old without this thing really bursting?
Yup.
I'm already there!
I was three years younger!
TPTB are trying to hold off long enough for Max Keiser to die of old age at 90.
I have definitely backed off on talking about any upcoming collapse with anyone around me. I may have come off as Chicekn Little years ago. Benny definitely put some crazy glue on this house of cards and it looks like there will be no mineral spirits to dissolve that glue in my lifetime (36 years old).
I remember, I remember! Maria B. cried on air at CNBC!
So what stage of collapse is this?
http://www.planbeconomics.com/2013/10/dimitri-orlov-five-stages-of-colla...
Ahahah, you guys are funny! I was on the patch; the only thing that derailed the collapse a few more years was fracking and shale. Nasty fucking business, I can tell u, but that production is peaking around now Id say, and we should all keep our eye on Ghawar, its pushing 65 yrs @ 5mbd!!!
Ghawar you say; http://peakoil.com/production/a-closer-look-at-saudi-arabia
about that tight oil: http://peakoil.com/production/shale-eroei-failing
Back up from a cat nap. You wrote a fictional piece on the day the dollar died.
I sometimes wonder if my kids will even(tually) see the collapse.
Armageddon is only assured if the elites continue to play the game by the rules they told you were sacred.
Between their ability to:
1) Print money
2) Tax
3) Move un-payable debts from private actors onto taxpayers and move un-payable sovereign debts onto taxpayers of other nations
4) Change the rules of accounting and alter the subordination of creditors on a whim.
5) Shut down banks and markets temporarily when people start to panic
...there is no reason any sudden large scale financial collapse is in the cards, except accounting for the possibility of the powers enumerated above not being invoked for some reason. Our lot is to watch the blight (economic and intellectual) that took Detroit move in our direction, slowly but surely. Your choice is whether you wish to scream that the Blue team or the Red team is responsible for it. Or to pack up and move away. Or to ignore it as best you can and enjoy the parts of this life that please you.
Punctuating this process will be the occasional thrill of a stock market circuit breaker going off or a pension fund bailing-in its beneficiaries while MSNBC announces we are lucky to have such mechanisms to prevent the total collapse that doomers are crazy for imagining is even possible.
In the long run 90% of the US will come to look a lot more like Detroit which validates our thesis and in historical terms it will indeed happen in the blink of an eye as we said it would. I'm still gonna hold some gold in case Rickard's Complex Systems thesis plays out and because Russia and China seem to like the stuff (though the media assures me they are led by idiots).
I wish I could stop this all from happening to the culture that created me, but this is our place in the cycle of history. I come to this wonderful place because I want to know "where we are" in the craziness, not to look for evidence that sanity is about to rammed down our idiot throats.
This was probably the most succinct summary of the current situation and our lot in history I've read before, thank you.
Zaphod said it well. This is a nice compilation you've put together.
I too had fallen for the whole "this shitpile is falling apart" meme long ago and my own observations confirmed what I read. I have since come to the conclusion that most everyone else, from those that benefit the most from this system to those that it feeds on daily will do anything and everything to keep it pumping on down the road. The only thing that brings this to a halt is a major unforeseen natural disaster (not even Fukushima could slow the consumers). So, I have come to the "I'll believe it when I see it" point for anything collapse related. Not that I think anything is going to get better soon. It's just going to melt and destroy those on the fringes slowly instead of sticking it up Wall Street and the military industrial complexes ass anytime soon.
Silver & Gold will serve as an adequate shield when it finally "bursts" (and it will soon, Grasshopper).
I am prepared as I can be. Just burned out I guess. Carry on folks. I'm just going to enjoy the scenery a bit now that summer has arrived and this thing is still limping along.
I vote for your prognostication.
Slow ride!
There may be a Bacon Bubble.
If Bacon goes to da moon that might cause tremors every morning on Wall Street and Main Street.
Nope. Don't buy it.
There will be a major crisis allright, and it isn't too far down the road.
If the economy blows up, Obama and the federal reserve have a recipe for a brand new financial system.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EnQ2u7dUN8A
Success guaranteed
For my children's sake, I hope it remains gradual. That's not what I see coming however. I see a fiery death for millions of people instead. Sure, I'll hope for the best, but I'll continue to prepare for the worst too. Our government and other governments are after all, and they are doing their best to start global conflict to provide the needed spark too. If I had to pick between the two, I suspect we'll have global war before a collapse was allowed to happen anyway.
A stair-stepped decline might be possible in a less complex world - but I think we are long passed that possibility. There are too many complex interdependencies.
It will be the 'gradual and then all at once' scenario. A cascading series of system failures that will cause massive bottlenecks and further breakdowns.
Eventually 'the 100th monkey' will stop believing in the MSM and the many other lies that permeate our society and then all hell will break loose very quickly.
Fuck Max!!!Buy silver crash JPM.......That worked well......
These guys are still averaging in their $50 buyins. Rots of Ruck Buck
Janet will not let this gap close.
She will make a 2 hour speech, confuse the shit out of us and keep the gravy flowing.
Guys, STOP.
Money and things financial are not going to take any system down. How could it? They can create whatever money they need, and they can kill anyone who objects.
This money stuff is not the mechanism for the smash.
Oil is. It's beyond their control. It's the only thing that is.
But do not be decieved here. They WILL try to control it. When China's infinite burn clearly is making it non existant for anyone else, they WILL go back to old fields and commission govt projects to drill wells 20 feet apart if necessary to get a few more barrels. Economics will be shown to be meaningless.
And then outright empty will assert itself.
Man always overcomes all impediments to continued growth. Clean coal, cold fusion, solar powered F350s, and warp drive must be just around the corner.
Or else you're right.
Look, somewhere along the way I was promised a flying car.
I just want my fucking flying car.
I thought everybody was supposed to get jet packs first.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6shmJaOD3Q&feature=kp
We Were Promised Jet Packs.........great band you'll love it
http://www.songlyrics.com/todd-rundgren/future-lyrics/
there are some good vids of 'future' too...
yes, it was the jet packs i remember most (after momma, that is).
also, compare the throwings in of bear blankets, reconciliations to multi-generational waits for the collapse, etc. now apparent here to the near unanimity and certainty of immediate disaster from '09 to, well, more recently.
the market fools the most people it can.
Me too, but I don't want the associated insurance premiums (prefer buying PM's for insurance instead).
With a frikkin laser beam?
I just want to live under the sea. I was promised that when I was 8 and never forgot. Oh well, Fukushima screwed that up anyway, maybe my kid can be toxic avenger
Flying cars are so 70s...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OwqXjTaOBAw
The <sarc> is strong in this one, master.
IC
Printing currency is not printing capital, printing currency is seizing capital. Capital is finite, and economics is not meaningless. Being trampled beneath this kleptocracy is an actual economy that has to actually function or the music will stop.
Correct statement! However, dollar printing takes a long trip around the world a few times before it starts having the effect of seizing capital and that is what has been delaying the inevitable.
The other effect is that he who gets the newly printed currency first does very well at the expense of the rest.
It only works for the US because the dollar is still the global reserve currency and, despite our titanic problems, the US remains one of the least worst houses on the block.
I vote food shortages, but you're right as long as they can print and keep gold stabilized the ponzi lives.
Please don't use "Janet" and "gap close" in the same sentence.
Or gravy- damn, I thru up in the back of my throat when I read that and thought about her. She's almost a woman.
I don't think there is any reason to fear. Buy moar stawks.
/s
Reading shit like this is psyoping my trading...quit it!
I'm already at super old, so I guess any day now the shit hawks swoop down.
It's like pulling a rubber band just a LEEEEEeeetle bit more each time.....knowing it's going to break....but never quite sure when it will.
And the worst thing is....when it DOES break....you're going to scream like a little girl when it snaps back on you.
yup. i mean, when was the last time 1 of these prediction charts was actually true lol
Always the when
maybe this time is different? jk.
but, 1918 for spx first. MUST.BEAT.GOLD (gold all time high is 1917.90).
Good point. That's what Bitcoin did a few months ago. It came within cents of the price of gold and then crashed.
Could be as simple as that, simply have to get stawks to beat gold, then the banksters can safely pull the rug out without losing face.
I'm partial to 1929.
we all got free cake?
Transports..keep moving up.....something must break.....banks should be weak NOT....bonds reverse.....BOOM! goes the BOMB
oil goes up and so do transports?
wtf is all one can say.
I know you all are watching for the false flag - you know it's coming.
Trains are transporting coal and crude oil ... and soon LPG for Europe! /sarc
maybe we wring the shorts out and get the 10yr to 2.35%. Just in time for a 300k NFP report. Then yields pop back to 2.5% and stawks don't have to flinch. it's summertime. bbq and ballgame time. Happy time.
I think I've developed Stockholm syndrome - I'm emotionally vested in the continued well-being of this market - go team Bull!
Pods said there is a decent chance we are all asleep right now in some chamber and we are just being sapped for our energy while we live this groundhog day life of sitting around waiting for something that never happens. i'm paraphrasing but it seems more plausable by the day.
life on the loosh farm:
http://www.zengardner.com/whos-fueling-who/
I don't buy the full Matrix analogy -- but IMNSHO aspects of quantum mechanics are FAR easier to understand if one posits the universe is a computer simulation. No sarc, folks.
plenty of evidence of this theory:
http://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/may/07/universe-recreated-comput...
of course the technology would be far beyond anything that man can currently undertand...
No. That macro-level simulation is valid regardless of whether the universe ITSELF is a simulation. There's a big difference between modelling the universe (to a degree), and claiming the universe IS a model.
But I emphatically agree with your technology comment.
I agree. The article simply illustrates the possibility that such a simulation is technologically possible. when you factor in that size is all relative, it gets a bit easier to understand. which of course brings you to the deeper issues regarding the nature of consciousness... that's where technology ceases to be of much help.
Agreed. Beyond that, if I'm right, size doesn't exist. Remember the Star Trek episode where Moriarty & consort explore a fake universe from inside a piece of computer hardware? They believed it to be real. The Holodeck projection was absent as it WASN'T NEEDED. Hmmm ....
p.s. I find the idea that "miracles" (if they ever happened) could have been the equivalent of keyboard entries somehow perversely delightful.
+1 from another Hi-tech loser.
Let's all do lunch! :-)
I can't remember a time when it wasn't plausable.
If they are going to goose the yield up, it will be in tomorrow's GDP rev.
If they wait for next Friday, the 10 year could be at 2.05% and 300K would get it to 2.15%.
Heres tomorrows GDP rev:
Ready revised -0.1 markets rip on it could have been worse, gold gets monkey hammered, and bonds touch 2.41. They will also temper it with a 300-310ish initial claims number. its easy to read...... hard to stomach.
T-bonds have nothing to do with domestic Eco stats.
I have to agree with him on that.... There will be no great reset, no American Revolution redux, just a slow, painful grind down to the bottom.
“Though the mills of God grind slowly, yet they grind exceeding small; Though with patience He stands waiting, with exactness grinds He all.”
As long as the Fed and the rest of their tentacles have full control, this ponzi will contine for along long time. The great robbery of 2009 was what the fed needed to get that control.
Diverging faster this time. This bodes well for a smooth, uncomplicated, very minor correction, that our rugged financial institutions will have no trouble dealing with.
Go away in May is wrong. It's BS. It's Fed backed now. Too Big to Fail.
Annual cycles may be dead now the squid is complete.
Time is fleeting ... the markets are warped.
Go away in May is wrong. It's BS. It's Fed backed now. Too Big to Fail.
yogi you made a boo boo
I don't give a shit what they do...just wish they would quit screwing with my silver.
When this is over, Dimon can see an ASE through his sphinctor.
(margin) short Ts + leverage long equities = the retard trade
The fact you're showing this chart 3 times a day is a worry that this time might actually be different.
The only part of this that is different is the time frame. All else exactly the same.
my lcs wants 1,325 for AGE's and $22 for ASE's. it just seems so unappealing. i'm waiting for much lower prices now. while i wait i'm making a flip book of my balls to send to jpm.
yeah, but how awesome is it to get ASE's from anywhere between 3 to 6 dollars below the average cost of silver production per ounce, right? Thank you, Evil Empire...I will take another roll please :-)
I trade my fiat for silver Buffaloes cuz they're even cheaper than ASE's. Just got 40 for 800!
However...if I had the extra fiat I'd be scooping up a monster box of ASE's at these rock bottom prices.
hold out for sub $1100 and $17.50
Good strategy (but only) if there's still any inventory available when we get there.
At this pace that's mid-June.
If it is a printing press buyer, it all makes sense. It's not bearishness, just more liquidity added.
I don't believe this either, but with the corporate buybacks the chart should show total SP market cap instead of just the index value. Is market cap rising with the float decreasing?
'As rates rise'.....what?
bond market is much larger than equities.
hmmmm.
It will keep going up until it doesn't. It will do so longer than you can stay sane or solvent trying to fight it.
That said, anyone buying at these levels is getting on the flying saucer https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMZJ-mM2n9A
Long cookbooks.
Long cooked books, too.
The Jihadist in Chief along w/his albino hobbit will not let this market go down.
it's the best looking piece of shit in the towlet bowl. otherwise known as obozo's presidency.
I'm certain of the end, its the means that has me spooked
The difference is that since the '09 lows there was some actual improvement in the economy (very small) and quite an improvement in corporate earnings. Both of those are now flat and beginning to fall in many instances. As we head towards summer and the next round of earnings, I do expect the volatility to the downside to pickup. It won't go near as far as it should and as it needs to, so it will be a BTFD and then we march higher until the inevitable collapse, whenever it may happen. One thing I do feel confident about, after the next market collapse it will take 10 years before we reach the pre-collapse market high. This next time around the Fed will be toothless as they will have already shot their wad in this go-round. Personally, I think it is conceivable that the Federal Reserve is not around in 10-15 years. Humanity is undergoing an awakening, and while we still have to go through the fire before we come out the other side, I believe that many of these corrupt institutions will be destroyed in the process. At the very least, I can dream about this happening.
I recently found myself thinking about the decline or collapse of great empires and realized that it is often hard to predict when or how their demise will occur. One sign of the end is a massive growth in crony capitalism and corruption. Many analogies can be taken from this idea, the empire need not be great and timing is always hard to correctly gauge.
The signs of decline may be everywhere but that does not guarantee the end is near. As the foundation crumbles away it is not uncommon for those in power to extend their rule by many tricks and changing the rules in order to gain a new lease on life. More on the subject of how empires collapse in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/05/how-empires-collapse.html
this is the new hopium. the market is betting the fed got it right this time. it looks like the technical bottom(top) for the ten year is around 2.00. that would make mortgages 4% naturally and as low as 3.5% with points. if the mortgage market revives then the market is indicating all things are right in the world once again and the market will make a try for the moon. if there is no response in the mortgage business then the market will react accordingly.
the only other reason the market can hold up is that it has become a proxy for inflation.
So we are a c**t hair removed from 2011?
yes, energy is the key, but, equally, the asset that the oil-let's call them energy-producers save in is as just as critical. When there is not available physical supply of that which the biggest energy producers save in, the present global monetary and financial system will be tossed and, after some historic turmoil, a new one will take its place.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pvm-n6gwPCY
Tick Tock Tick Tock...2011 RESET at a brokerage account near you
There is soooo much artificial capital in the economy right now that the yield on bonds is little more than an indicator of this excess. Banks can borrow at 0 from the fed window, buy a 10 year at 2.5% and net, 2.5%!
The question is why it's not at .83% like in Japan?
Corporations can borrow at near 0 and buy back their stock.
These are not your father's markets, don't apply thier rules.
Companies are borrowing money they don't need and sitting on it as well because they remember what happened in 2008.
Topic Ukraine:
OFFICIAL BILDERBERG 2014 MEMBERSHIP LIST RELEASED
Full list here:
http://homment.com/fgGtWkcSUt
I agreed ugliness lies ahead. I love the way it is always being kicked out a year or two and never going to happen tomorrow. It is as if we can't handle what is coming at us and need more time.
For a long time I have been trying to develop a scenario for a market "super crash" and a reasonable map that would arrive at such a situation. Below is an article looking at how it could happen sooner rather than later.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/01/flash-crash-on-steroids.html
Um, the game of musical chairs is played and the musical temporarily stops.
Everyone cheers because they think things have changed, until things turn to crap again.
One oligarch or elite replaces another.
It doesn't matter when the next crash happens or how. The FED and their consortests have contingency plans ready to go. Nothing will change until the guillotines are rolled out and used.
Bullshit. It is nothing but a central planner game of whack-a-mole. Guess what mole ain't gonna get whacked.
What is the mole on Janets, ass?... Alex
The Fed doesn't know what will happen after the next stage of the tapering.Look at their track record and the decisions they've made.They've been wrong at least 15 times on major economic decisions.They're using the wrong model but I suspect that they are now aware of it.They also made the biggest mistake by taking over monetary policy.Basically they've been badly abused by right wing neo cons and bankrolled a couple of big wars that costs trillions.The political influence is similar to now running your own endless money printing machine and using the Fed as your big fat piggy bank until piggy explodes under Keynesian theory.
i'd be curious to see if you actually went short markets, stocks, etc based on Zero Hedge news since 2009, what sort of return you'd actually have
Herdee..har har...you left one itsy bitsy detail........Fed has been "abused" as you call it.....by bankrolling Odumbo's leftist welfare to infinity...........yes, it's costs fiat money too.
If "they" can prevent any crash - then WHY didn't they prevent the 2007-2009 nose dive where the S&P500 went from 1,575 to 735?
A nice 50+% cluster fuck of a market drop.
I don't think these "officials" have the ability to wipe their own ass hole without getting shit on their fingers - I doubt they have the ability to prevent the world financial market from taking a dump.
Decentralize already.
Yet another miraculous US futures levitation overnight , and Gold and Silver...slaughtered ...again
when we all on zh become resigned to the success of the elite banksters and crooks in NYC, dc , london, paris, berlin, to keep the mega corps and banks slowly moving on, markets slowly bleeding up, when in short ZHers throw in the towel..the top is in.