"Pent-Up" Pending Home Sales Demand Missing; Down 9.4% YoY

Tyler Durden's picture

But it's the weather... nope... NAR blames excess inventory as giving people too much choice and slowing their purchasing decisions for the notable miss on both MoM and YoY sales. This is the 7th month in a row of declining YoY sales. The 0.4% rise MoM missed expectations of 1.0% as the pent-up demand from a cold winter appears to be missing in action. Of Course NAR is optimistic (but even they are cautious), "an uptrend in closed sales is expected, although some months will encounter a modest setback."

 

7th month in a row of YoY declines...

For the longest time the NAR "explained" collapsing pending home sales with the weather. Well, clearly the weather in the west was horrible this year.

And now it's time to gives the mic to everyone's favorite "economist-cum-weatherman", Larry Yun, who if nothing else is always full of hope and horrible forecasts.

Yun projects the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to trend up and average 5.5 percent next year. “The extent to which higher mortgage interest rates will impact housing affordability and sales depends on income growth, ongoing improvement in the labor market and any change to mortgage underwriting conditions.”

 

With sub-par activity in the first quarter, annual existing-home sales are expected to be modestly below the nearly 5.1 million in 2013, but should be close to 5.3 million in 2015. The national median existing-home price is projected to grow between 5 and 6 percent this year, and in the range of 4 to 5 percent in 2015.

 

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, expects a gradual uptrend in home sales. “Higher inventory levels are giving buyers more choices, and a slight decline in mortgage interest rates this spring is raising prospective home buyers’ confidence,” he said. “An uptrend in closed sales is expected, although some months will encounter a modest setback.”

Someone please explain to Larry that higher inventory levels means more supply. We are confident even the NAR knows what more supply does to the equilibrium price. 

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praps's picture

So time for Goldman to reduce the Q2 GDP forecast?

FieldingMellish's picture

Nope. Time to double down. 8% FTW!

PartysOver's picture

Seriously, you can not make this stuff up.  I have never seen such delusional justification in my life.

NoDebt's picture

Agreed.

"blame....excess inventory as giving people too much choice and slowing their purchasing decisions"

You gotta be kidding me.  

smlbizman's picture

last year the problem was not enough inventory.....whom do you think they say this bullshit for....if you are paying attention , you know its bullshit...and if you are watching american idol...you dont even have a clue....so whos back are the pissing down and that person thinks its raining....

Never One Roach's picture

"Must be b/c no inventory ...no, wait, it's the weather.... no, wait, global warming....."

 

Cant be joblessness and massive personal debt levels, can it?

Jumbotron's picture

Someone needs to tell Obama to fire up the drones and go kill the weather.  It's commiting acts of terrorism.

PartysOver's picture

No can do.  They are shutting down HARRP.   No more weather modification.  Now what did I do with my tin foil hat?

orangegeek's picture

But one bedroom government subsidized apartment demand is going through the roof.

 

Limited to those on food stamps only.  Membership has its privileges.

Spastica Rex's picture

I think once the economy really does reach "escape velocity," it will be in an undesirable direction.

Winston Churchill's picture

Terminal velocity ,I think you mean.

Its  the sudden stop at the end thats the problem.

Jumbotron's picture

Actually escape velocity works just as well.  We'll just slingshot around the moon straight to the heart of the sun.

BandGap's picture

I will have passed out by then, won't feel the abrupt deceleration. It's best that way.

How do the talking heads on TV keep such straight faces these days? Additional rations of special kool-aid?

Zirpedge's picture

The gravity of the malcontents and racists who oppose Barack Obama is what we need to escape from. It's time to stop blaming the weather and point the blame at the real economic terrorists, the negative doubters that hoard resources and believe in fairy tales like shiney metal money. We need a civilized society of motivated community organizers to pick this economy up by the jack boot straps.

intric8's picture

Eh? You're implying that obama supporters are content. I suppose thats true, because they voted him back for a second term.

Once you go barrack...

Zirpedge's picture

He should run for a third term. Hillary is good and all and I'd like to see her tag team with Janet Yellen, talk about escape velocity through the glass ceiling. 

Winston Churchill's picture

Oops,

Don't these liars, er ,um,  statiticians talk to each other.

 

Stoploss's picture

Oh. Well you fix that by buying..............

 

 

 

Bonds!!!

101 years and counting's picture

clearly, the weather is to blame.  a severe lack of tornadoes during tornado season has left too many houses standing.

yogibear's picture

Game over. The Federal Reserve will resort to ever-more printing while prices ramp and demand shrinks for the 99%. Interest rates are already low, nothing to do except more printing and dollar destruction.

Just a matter of time. Next Ponzi, the IMF bails out the Fed with SDRs.

Winston Churchill's picture

From the lack of team east attendees at Bilderburg ,it looks like they have left

the SDR reservation.

NDXTrader's picture

So the Fox is reporting that the Hens are doing fine?

madcows's picture

Just last month the NAR said there were too few homes, and more would be coming on the market, which would lower prices, which would increase sales, which would save the economy and bring us back to boomtimes.

jpc578's picture

If this "good" news keeps up we should be at S&P 2500 by tomorrow's close.

yogibear's picture

Next plan is for the IMF to bail out the US Federal Reserve.

A Fed official admitted they are insolvent.

- Jim Ricketts

SDRs all the way.

q99x2's picture

I'm practically starving because I've run through so many choices of who to borrow money from. I need a single solution provider.

replaceme's picture

I have family in the home industry, and for the most part, they're just scratching by.  That's sales, mortgage, construction, the whole deal - if there is any joy in housing, it's nowhere to be seen here in flyover.

Colonel Klink's picture

Too much inventory slowing down the selection of a home?  What pure and utter BULLSHIT!  Because people enjoy house hunting so much.  After about 2 trips out looking for a house with a realtor, I want to kill myself.  Most people are finally relieved when they find something they'll accept, it's not like there are dozens of choices that people finally whittle it down to one final selection.

Go fuck yourself NAR!

buzzsaw99's picture

buy now it'll just cost you moar next year. [/funyun]

Winston Churchill's picture

Had to take a detour along South Ocean on Jupiter Island yesterday.

For those that don't know, its where the real rich live,rather than the hoi poloi

down on Palm Beach.

Nearly every other house was up for sale.I have NEVER seen more than a handful up for

sale before in the last twenty years.

Now its in the hundred and something range.

buzzsaw99's picture

They aren't alone: 1500 for sale on tiny marco island florida:

https://missywpp.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/marcohfs.jpg

 

Check out Mustang Island Texas (2900 for sale) or any of millions of beach front properties. Prices have doubled and so has inventory. Nothing is selling (except those up for auction).

Winston Churchill's picture

I'm more interested in the why they are selling.

We are talking the 'old' money types on Jupiter Island, they have had winter homes

there almost since Flagler opened this area up.Rebuilding every 30/40 years on the same

site.

Why the sudden mass exodus ?

Vidbizz's picture

My guess: property taxes & the new flood insurance standards. 

replaceme's picture

Look on Zillow sometime, all the homes around you, look real hard at the "Days on Market" part.  It's nothing to see 2 years on pretty decent houses, in nice areas.  You get a lot more if you show "foreclosures". btw.

intric8's picture

Oh crap- a pullback after a bullshit run-up based on printed money and a zero interest environment. DEFLATION!

oklaboy's picture

speak to me goose, speak to   me goose...... 

starman's picture

If I could just figure out how to get potential buyers to  thier dream homes in bad weahter I could be a real estate agent! yippie.

venturen's picture

Could it be that putting prices to bubble terroritory with the government pushing ever more development is slowing people's purchases? Why don't they just give us all banker bonuses then things would be selling like the Hamptons!

venturen's picture

Why don't we just remediate all houses like Detroit, just level whole neighborhoods regardless whether people live there or not or the houses are nice or not....that would get things moving!

Moneyswirth's picture

Mortgage rates are at historically low levels, abundance of housing inventory.  Hey, it's almost like the middle class, (the sector that the Feds always expected to save the economy with their home purchases), is dead broke or something. 

venturen's picture

heck forget the middle class...what of the young kids trying to start a life with average house costing $200k!

Eyeroller's picture

Mother Nature is obviously a racist bi-atch.

JJdog's picture

Weather related! when it gets warmer and sunny out, people don't go shop for houses. Yellen will confirm that and Steve Liesman will concur. :)

 

Cannon Fodder's picture

Maybe it has something to do with the inability to afford these homes??? In my city you can't find anything less than $250k-$300k, and employers don't want to pay decent salaries. There is no way you can afford $300k on a $60k salary.

insanelysane's picture

"There is no way you can afford $300k on a $60k salary."

What kind of talk is that?  Surely you will be asked to take out a student loan to pay for some training courses such as "Kool-aid Drinking 101", "Stocks and Real Estate Only Go Up 220", and "How to Care for Your Skittle Shitting Unicorn 400".

FreeNewEnergy's picture

I believe that my situation - of which plenty of regulars around here are aware - is an important barometer of the housing situation.

For those unfamiliar with my story, the synopsis:

Dad died in July 2009. I inherited home with Cuntywide mortgage. Stopped paying immediately. Went into foreclosure, March 2010. Since then, I've countersued, and we're deadlocked. No action from either side for a year now.

If my situation is in any way indicative of the housing market, it tells you one thing, BofA (heir to to Cuntrywide fortune ;-) does not want this suburban, upstate NY (Rochester), 3BR colonial, nor any home similar to it. Figure anything under $125k is hands off for the banks. They make no money at 4% over 30 years, especially because they know home values are wildly inflated (upstate NY is somewhat sane, in terms of value) and they know another leg down or crash is coming. They're not stupid. They'd rather keep this POS on their books indefinitely, or, somehow induce a re-fi or short sale (They've tried. They failed.)

It is my contention that if the real estate market was truly "improving", "robust" or (insert favorite "recovery" meme here), they'd have my ass out of here in three shakes of a tail feather. They're not moving. The market is dead and I predict it will remain dead for many years (like 5 to 10, maybe longer) for middle income, middle class-type homes.

Eventually, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA or some other govt. agency owns these homes, with the ultimate buyer of the securities backing them belonging to none other than the Federal Reserve.

The Federal Reserve is bankrupt.

Let me repeat that.

The Federal Reserse is bankrupt. They only continue to survive due to their ability to conjure money out of thin air (economic prestidigitation).

Bottom line: We're fucking screwed. I, on the other hand, am willing to outlast them in the ultimate game of survivor. In al iittle more than a month, I will be celebrating five years since defaulting on their "shitty" mortgage. The thing is a textbook example of fraud, complete with overpriced appraisal, phony income statement, bogus assignment and more. I am daring the lawyers to move their case forward because I know they cannot, lest they suffer sanctions, fines and possible imprisonment via the court.

Will one of Janet Yellen's relatives show up at my front door some day and demand I turn myself out? Who knows, it's that crazy.

There is going to be a massive economic contraction (already well underway) and the banks will not be bailed out by the Fed this time because the Fed is bankrupt, insolvent, tits up and so is every level of government, from the fed level all the way down to most towns and villages.

Bye, bye Miss American Pie. Jubilee is the only rational solution, but, not until the 1% has more than enough money to buy up everything, which will be...soon, later? Who knows?

New American Standard Bible 
If from human motives I fought with wild beasts at Ephesus, what does it profit me? If the dead are not raised, LET US EAT AND DRINK, FOR TOMORROW WE DIE.

thamnosma's picture

Thanks for your real life example.  I couldn't agree more.  Places with more "sane" prices like yours need to fall less than other zones, but even your area remains over-priced. 

Dingleberry's picture

Good insight. I agree with your assessment.

I had to look up "prestidigitation".

I went to public school.

But it was an apt description of the fed.