This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Thursday Humor: GDP - Grossly Dubious Projections
In the middle of the last great financial crisis, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) proclaimed that Q1 2008 was the US economy grow at a modest 0.6%. This was met with hockey-stick prognosticators looking to the heavens for the next few quarters and bleeting about transitory factors affecting the economy. However, as the following chart shows, five years later (and after numerous adjustments) the +0.6% growth for Q1 2008 had somehow morphed into a clench-worthy 2.7% collapse in the economy...
Trade accordingly...
h/t @Reinman_MT
»
- 11019 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Mission Accomplished. As usual.
http://cdn.memegenerator.net/instances/250x250/43540484.jpg
Hockey Sicks Arise! You've nothing left to lose.
Bureau of Labor Statistics' Science Joke:
Atom#1: "Heavens, I've lost a molecule!"
Atom#2: "Are you positive?"
Expect final GDP figures for 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and big numbers for 2014, 2015 and 2016 just before the 2016 elections.
This should help to boost auto sales, eh?
Cash for clunkers without the cash...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2014/05/28/why-scrappi...
DaddyO
yer, the hockey stick is there, its just upside down
i.e. - we're about to be whacked really hard into the back of the net
HOPE springs infernal.
GDP includes all government spending, meaning what the USG is able to "produce" via what it extracts from the public via taxes and the vastly more that it is able to borrow and print.
Nevermind that GDP could consist entirely of what is spent on sickcare or armaments, and as long as these expenditures went up, so would GDP.
Nothing could be more meaningless than GDP, in other words, other than the time spent obsessing about it.
Wake me up when it's time for the Market Watch Banner Headline---"Worldwide Collapse"; I've already got the Worldwide Wreckage" one for my collection; (10-06-08)
Ummmmmmmm..."don't trade period."
There be Bankers in Da House.
Take the day off tomorrow Wall Street.
"Got an Uncle in Puerto Rico. Say he's doin well...runnin round the beaches of Puerto Rico!
Now my Aunt says he's a zero!...
Hopefully, time does love a hero.
Just have to find 'em.
Now my question is,
how much worse would this chart look if the arithmetic behind it were accurate?
How much better would it look if the fools had not tampered with the fates that should have come to the crooks and failures? How much better could it be if trillions had not been printed to circulate among the criminals who want it all?
"Time to Add Hookers and Blow" Mario D.
Practice makes perfect.
Reality is just so...unsettling. But I live in a state where we budget our tax revenues based on expected future Facebook millionaires so I guess I shouldn't be surprised.
Miffed;-)
Bacterial growth is much more predictable, isn't it?
Ah, life in the petri dish called Kalifornia...
Good to see you posting, Miffed.
DaddyO
Yes, it is certainly depressing living in a state that once was the envy of the nation that is now the home of the liberal academic elite and parasitic knuckle draggers. Kind of like the Eloi and Morlocks. I'm hoping one will eat the other but this is always an unrealized fantasy.
I read all the snide comments here about Cali and you'd think I could try and make a stab at a defense but there is none. I just bow my head in acquiescence to the truth. I want my State and country back!
I tried a brief hiatus to reduce stress. I found Scotch works better and more enjoyable. ;-)
Miffed;-)
Seen your "mid-term" ballot, yet?
Lots and lots of responsible choices to be made by us informed voters.
Who the fuck are most these people?
They don't even Google correctly.
The People's Democratic Republic of the Land of Milk and Honey
unsettling is a wonderful descriptor
Don't vote.
It only encourages the bastards.
Well, I saw It came in the mail but the baby chicks needed poo poo papers. Did I make a mistake?
Miffed;-)
We must have had a polar vortex that year.
Had to laugh when I heard that one today, global warming made the economy contract one percent last quarter...because it was too cold.
They can't possibly believe their own bullshit or their proof readers went to J-school at Columbia ;-)
Hmmm, then if we apply this logic it would mean higher temperatures would cause the economy to increase activity? But,of course, this correlation will always work considering it is termed climate change. Funny how so many are fooled by frilly words and dubious studies proclaimed by " experts".
Miffed;-)
No doubt...lol.
(Watch this)
Frilly words and clever marketing is a known fiat vacuum cleaner, nothing has to work as advertised, just work enough to move it out of develpment, its right up there with calling digits in the ether, a coin ;-)
Tying Virtual to Physical is a classic marketers ploy along with other Jedi mind tricks. Substantive always trumps theoretical in the depths of our being, so it is exploited. The trick is not to be weak minded and fall for the classic coin trick. ;-)
Miffed;-)
HEY! this is serious stuff, nobody can predict when seasons like winter are going to occur!
Weather! Everything is weather
It is entirely weather for me. I was put out to pasture a month ago. There's not a roof in sight, but there are millions of flies lookin' to take a free meal off my hide.
Lucky for me, my man applies a cattle formula of 'Frontline' to me to control external parasites on me. My man has interest-seeking parasites on him too. But alas, I have no remedy for him.
Global WARNING were fukt! Financially!
Upside down hockey stick
But Goldman Suchs said 3.7% growth target for Q2.
Hey everybody, get aboard the bullshit train.
Ah, 'Global warming' is now morphed to 'Climate Change'
In other words the climate is changing so we must tax you even more and is the reason for fuckedupness
Great stuff guesswork now and reality of the situation appears years later when no-one is looking and having to answer what is happening in REAL time for a change
Sell in May and
RUN FOR YOUR LIFE!
Dog
Obviously, the problem was that American men got lots and lots of extra blowjobs from hookers in Q1 2008, and that was not expected by the BEA, nor measured. That is now fixed.
Predicting the future is an impossible task, a fools errand, full of pitfalls. Still we listen and soak in all that is said, we even spend a tremendous amount of money to gain an edge in knowing what maybe just around the corner. If you step back ten years in your mind, I suspect that things have not unfolded as you might have predicted.
When you see how the world has developed, the twist and turns are most unpredictable. Nowhere is this more apparent then in the economy, whether it is in the areas of interest rates and inflation or the rise and fall of companies. Surprise and awe, highlighted with bouts of shock is what we should expect going forward. How can we expect budgets based on projections ten years out to even be close to reality? The article below delves into the pitfalls of predictions.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/06/predicting-future-and-hindsight-m...