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Has The Next Recession Already Begun For America's Middle Class?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog,

Has the next major economic downturn already started?  The way that you would answer that question would probably depend on where you live.  If you live in New York City, or the suburbs of Washington D.C., or you work for one of the big tech firms in the San Francisco area, you would probably respond to such a question by saying of course not.  In those areas, the economy is doing great and prices for high end homes are still booming.  But in most of the rest of the nation, evidence continues to mount that the next recession has already begun for the poor and the middle class.  As you will read about below, major retailers had an absolutely dreadful start to 2014 and home sales are declining just as they did back in 2007 before the last financial crisis.  Meanwhile, the U.S. economy continues to lose more good jobs and 20 percent of all U.S. families do not have a single member that is employed at this point.  2014 is turning out to be eerily similar to 2007 in so many ways, but most people are not paying attention.

During the first quarter of 2014, earnings by major U.S. retailers missed estimates by the biggest margin in 13 years The "retail apocalypse" continues to escalate, and the biggest reason for this is the fact that middle class consumers in the U.S. are tapped out.  And this is not just happening to a few retailers - this is something that is happening across the board.  The following is a summary of how major U.S. retailers performed in the first quarter of 2014 that was put together by Jim Quinn...

Wal-Mart Profit Plunges By $220 Million as US Store Traffic Declines by 1.4%

 

Target Profit Plunges by $80 Million, 16% Lower Than 2013, as Store Traffic Declines by 2.3%

 

Sears Loses $358 Million in First Quarter as Comparable Store Sales at Sears Plunge by 7.8% and Sales at Kmart Plunge by 5.1%

 

JC Penney Thrilled With Loss of Only $358 Million For the Quarter

 

Kohl’s Operating Income Plunges by 17% as Comparable Sales Decline by 3.4%

 

Costco Profit Declines by $84 Million as Comp Store Sales Only Increase by 2%

 

Staples Profit Plunges by 44% as Sales Collapse and Closing Hundreds of Stores

 

Gap Income Drops 22% as Same Store Sales Fall

 

American Eagle Profits Tumble 86%, Will Close 150 Stores

 

Aeropostale Losses $77 Million as Sales Collapse by 12%

 

Best Buy Sales Decline by $300 Million as Margins Decline and Comparable Store Sales Decline by 1.3%

 

Macy’s Profit Flat as Comparable Store Sales decline by 1.4%

 

Dollar General Profit Plummets by 40% as Comp Store Sales Decline by 3.8%

 

Urban Outfitters Earnings Collapse by 20% as Sales Stagnate

 

McDonalds Earnings Fall by $66 Million as US Comp Sales Fall by 1.7%

 

Darden Profit Collapses by 30% as Same Restaurant Sales Plunge by 5.6% and Company Selling Red Lobster

 

TJX Misses Earnings Expectations as Sales & Earnings Flat

 

Dick’s Misses Earnings Expectations as Golf Store Sales Plummet

 

Home Depot Misses Earnings Expectations as Customer Traffic Only Rises by 2.2%

 

Lowes Misses Earnings Expectations as Customer Traffic was Flat

That is quite a startling list.

But plummeting retail sales are not the only sign that the U.S. middle class is really struggling right now.  Home sales have also been extremely disappointing for quite a few months.  This is how Wolf Richter described what we have been witnessing...

This is precisely what shouldn’t have happened but was destined to happen: Sales of existing homes have gotten clobbered since last fall. At first, the Fiscal Cliff and the threat of a US government default – remember those zany times? – were blamed, then polar vortices were blamed even while home sales in California, where the weather had been gorgeous all winter, plunged more than elsewhere.

 

Then it spread to new-home sales: in April, they dropped 4.7% from a year ago, after March's year-over-year decline of 4.9%, and February's 2.8%. Not a good sign: the April hit was worse than February's, when it was the weather’s fault. Yet April should be the busiest month of the year (excellent brief video by Lee Adler on this debacle).

 

We have already seen that in some markets, in California for example, sales have collapsed at the lower two-thirds of the price range, with the upper third thriving. People who earn median incomes are increasingly priced out of the market, and many potential first-time buyers have little chance of getting in. In San Diego, for example, sales of homes below $200,000 plunged 46% while the upper end is doing just fine.

As Richter noted, sales of upper end homes are still doing fine in many areas.

But how long will that be able to continue if things continue to get even worse for the poor and the middle class?  Traditionally, the U.S. economy has greatly depended upon consumer spending by the middle class.  If that continues to dry up, how long can we avoid falling into a recession?  For even more numbers that seem to indicate economic trouble for the middle class, please see my previous article entitled "27 Huge Red Flags For The U.S. Economy".

Other analysts are expressing similar concerns.  For example, check out what John Williams of shadowstats.com had to say during one recent interview...

We’re turning down anew. The first quarter should revise into negative territory… and I believe the second quarter will report negative as well.

That will all happen by July 30 when you have the annual revisions to the GDP. In reality the economy is much weaker than that. Economic growth is overstated with the GDP because they understate inflation, which is used in deflating the number…

 

What we’re seeing now is just… we’ve been barely stagnant and bottomed out… but we’re turning down again.

 

The reason for this is that the consumer is strapped… doesn’t have the liquidity to fuel the growth in consumption.

 

Income… the median household income, net of inflation, is as low as it was in 1967. The average guy is not staying ahead of inflation…

This has been a problem now for decades… You were able to buy consumption from the future by borrowing more money, expanding your debt. Greenspan saw the problem was income, so he encouraged debt expansion.

 

That all blew apart in 2007/2008… the income problems have continued, but now you don’t have the ability to borrow money the way you used to. Without that and the income problems remaining, there’s no way that consumption can grow faster than inflation if income isn’t.

 

As a result – personal consumption is more than two thirds of the economy – there’s no way you can have positive sustainable growth in the U.S. economy without the consumer being healthy.

The key to the health of the middle class is having plenty of good jobs.

But the U.S. economy continues to lose more good paying jobs.

For example, Hewlett-Packard has just announced that it plans to eliminate 16,000 more jobs in addition to the 34,000 job cuts that have already been announced.

Today, there are 27 million more working age Americans that do not have a job than there were in 2000, and the quality of our jobs continues to decline.

This is absolutely destroying the middle class.  Unless the employment situation in this country starts to turn around, there does not seem to be much hope that the middle class will recover any time soon.

Meanwhile, there are emerging signs of trouble for the wealthy as well.

For instance, just like we witnessed back in 2007, things are starting to look a bit shaky at the "too big to fail" banks.  The following is an excerpt from a recent CNBC report...

Citigroup has joined the ranks of those with trading troubles, as a high-ranking official told the Deutsche Bank 2014 Global Financial Services Investor Conference Tuesday that adjusted trading revenue probably will decline 20 percent to 25 percent in the second quarter on an annualized basis.

 

"People are uncertain," Chief Financial Officer John Gerspach said of investor behavior, according to an account from the Wall Street Journal. "There just isn't a lot of movement."

 

In recent weeks, officials at JPMorgan Chase and Barclays also both reported likely drops in trading revenue. JPMorgan said it expected a decline of 20 percent of the quarter, while Barclays anticipates a 41 percent drop, prompting it to announce mass layoffs that will pare 19,000 jobs by the end of 2016.

Remember, very few people expected a recession the last time around either.  In fact, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke repeatedly promised us that we would not have a recession and then we went on to experience the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.

It will be the same this time as well.  Just like in 2007, we will continue to get an endless supply of "hopetimism" from our politicians and the mainstream media, and they will continue to fill our heads with visions of rainbows, unicorns and economic prosperity for as far as the eyes can see.

But then the next recession will strike and most Americans will be completely blindsided by it.

 

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Fri, 05/30/2014 - 21:02 | 4811611 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I did not hear about any recession on CNBS yet...

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 21:17 | 4811643 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

I didn't either because the recent Greater Depression which officially began in Dec. 2007 never ended for the middle class.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 22:11 | 4811759 economics9698
economics9698's picture

Mochela is doing great.  

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 22:54 | 4811833 Shocker
Shocker's picture

The middle class is getting pretty much wiped out in this recovery

Job Situation: http://www.dailyjobcuts.com

-

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 23:02 | 4811848 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

for fucks sake man...

lets call it by its proper name...

THIS COUNTRY IS IN A FUCKING DEPRESSION...

cazadores for everyone....

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 23:30 | 4811892 MontgomeryScott
MontgomeryScott's picture

'Micheal Snyder' is working on the false presumtion that the 'last' 'recession' actually ended.

I forget when the PTB declared the end of this. Was it March 2009? APRIL, perhaps?

LOOK! The DJIA is UP! GOOD NEWS!

Yeah, and GOOKLE is an 'INDUSTRIAL'.

(Hits left hand very hard on forehead while ducking down, trying desparately to understand why 100 million are unemployed and Detroit and Cleveland are in ruins, and food prices are rising by 22% a year, and a 'good job' is now working at a convenience store/gas station for $9.58 an hour, and Walmart greeters are all sitting in electrified wheelchairs trying to make their obesity and helpnessness an obvious issue for those who can STILL work and are somewhat healthy, thanks to 'tax breaks' that the 'working class' is forced to pay by the IRS, and WONDERING what planet this 'Micheal Snyder' just came from, in his first visit to Earth)

CHIPOTLE Cazadores for everyone!

(Let's try hitting it a little harder, now. NO, that wasn't hard enough, your forehead isn't bleeding yet)

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 23:41 | 4811909 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

 

 

You mean there's a Recession?

WTF !

Why didn't someone tell me?!

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 00:14 | 4811955 I MISS KUDLOW
I MISS KUDLOW's picture

It looks to me there was really never a middle class, it just appeared that way because we all were able to buy cheap shit from foreign countries at slave labor, oh boy now we have permanent job loss along with the baby boomers all needing their s.s checks along with the group that thinks they should get free shit all of the time.....

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 00:42 | 4812004 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

 

 

GM engineer said he forgot change to switch in recalled cars: NYT

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gm-engineer-said-forgot-change-switch-reca...

Buy Merikan!

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 05:22 | 4812163 svayambhu108
svayambhu108's picture

The US gasoline article is in error, here is why: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-30/us-gasoline-consumption-plummet...

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 08:52 | 4812291 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

 

I did not hear about any recession on CNBS yet...

 

Those guys were all over gold at $265. It was so bad I had to turn it off.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 08:53 | 4812300 markmotive
markmotive's picture

The 'Middle Class' was a flash in the pan during the span of human existence. A social project that failed. An anomaly by Mother Nature's standards.

Enjoy whatever is left of it...

http://www.planbeconomics.com/2013/03/the-middle-class-has-been-hollowed...

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 13:04 | 4812646 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

The depression ended for the top 10% of wafer earners and continued for the lower 90%. Since the top 10% own the MSM media outlets, officially it ended. Never mind everyone else.....

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 08:54 | 4812298 markmotive
markmotive's picture

Good luck with that...

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 17:37 | 4813134 sylviasays
sylviasays's picture

Who will save the middle class from the death knell of predatory big government Socialists? 

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 17:37 | 4813135 sylviasays
sylviasays's picture

Who will save the middle class from the death knell of predatory big government Socialists? 

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 07:26 | 4812216 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

back in the late 50's -60's, everything we bought from cars to shoes was made in the USA- that changed and so did the hope of the middle class - the elite reptiles exported all those jobs, and many still blame the voters for going along, for me, the vote was useless, seems I got outvoted every election. Few in politics stood up and said this is suicide, well here we are:

remember silicon valley needs more workers imported from asia while HP fires 16,000?

"it just appeared that way because we all were able to buy cheap shit from foreign countries at slave labor, oh boy now we have permanent job loss "

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 09:06 | 4812325 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

I take calls from stupid suburbanites all day long who whine about our USA made prices and labor and think a snappy retort is "I'll just get it at Walmart".  They don't put two and two together that things made in China or other cheap labor pools cost less but at an ultimate price to them--they'll eventually lose their jobs.  But in the meantime they can continue to be the true assholes that they are.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 17:49 | 4813163 sylviasays
sylviasays's picture

I take calls from stupid suburbanites all day long who whine about our USA made prices and labor and think a snappy retort is "I'll just get it at Walmart".

So big city dwellers only buy products made in USA? NOT! 

Like we all really have a choice? Go to any store in this country and try to buy everything you need that was actually manufactured here.  

Unless you're Amish and manufacture everthing you need, it will be impossible to buy only American made products. 

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 14:10 | 4812710 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

The middle class existed in from the 1940's to the 1980's until NAFTA, GATT, WTO took over in the 1990's and US manufacturing was shut down.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 04:20 | 4812144 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

What gets me is that in my state and city is that the builders do not seem to believe there is a recession. I see ungodly amounts of condos and home developments going i and not always in the core desireable areas. I am wondering if there will be enough people as well as decent incomes to buy all these units.

Frankly, it looks to me like a repeat of pre-2008, which will make things worse.

On the flip side, I think the Obama administration through sheer incompetence and dogged leftist doctrine is slowly garroting the economy. They will neither recognize it nor admit it.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 08:34 | 4812276 Debt-Is-Not-Money
Debt-Is-Not-Money's picture

"They will neither recognize it nor admit it."

FDR said that "in politics, nothing happens by accident".

It should be clear then that this administration wants to garrote the economy.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 10:10 | 4812405 intric8
intric8's picture

They wont admit anything because politicians aren't even in control of economic policy. The fed res representing a small pool of ultra powerful bankers is.

This system of things as we know it has likely been written off by these guys already. So much policy emanating from the fed SEEMS unsustainable to us because sustainabilty is being strictly fashioned to preserve interests of the ultra rich and powerful, not the masses. Thus, we are witnessing the biggest cash out in history through the destruction of the middle class in some of the richest nations in the world.

These guys wont care if if the system comes crashing down and half the world kills each other. They will hide out in the interim and start all over in the aftermath. Their century long exotic monetary experiment will soon fail miserably. An entire reboot is completely acceptable and even welcome at this point.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 09:01 | 4812318 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

where are they offering $9.58 an hour at a gas station? if they have any openings i'd like to apply.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 14:11 | 4812711 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

States with minimum wage or $9 or more. Then they tax it all away

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 00:45 | 4812006 Jerk_Store
Jerk_Store's picture

It can't be. There's no soup lines.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 04:22 | 4812145 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

It's food stamps nowadays. Don't need no stinking lines.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 09:11 | 4812337 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

and with food stamps you can buy all that crap like fritos, candy, ice cream and soda so you don't have to suffer the indignity of eating real and healthy food.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 18:37 | 4813247 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

Or donated Salvation Army chicken soup.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 08:34 | 4812277 KenShabby
KenShabby's picture

It's against the law to feed the homeless now.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 14:12 | 4812712 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

The state wants a monolpoly

Sun, 06/01/2014 - 15:18 | 4814816 markpower49
markpower49's picture

I hope we can hunt them.

Americans deserve to be poor for supporting a corrupt and evil government. Affirmative action alone makes the US pure evil.

Sun, 06/01/2014 - 18:27 | 4815270 cooky puss
cooky puss's picture

oh gawd! I want to see this. Link anyone?

 

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 08:10 | 4812249 No Quarter
No Quarter's picture

You know the difference between a recession and a depression?

A recession is when your neighbor loses his job

A depression is when YOU lose your job.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 00:28 | 4811988 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Middle class, this is so 1900s.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 03:19 | 4812125 August
August's picture

True... and so far from the lush forests of her native Kashyyyk.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 10:53 | 4812481 ShrNfr
ShrNfr's picture

Her kids do not have to eat the slop that she wants to inflict on the rest of us: http://www.sidwell.edu/calendars/month.aspx?StartDate=6%2F1%2F2014&Modul...

 

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 22:19 | 4811775 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Fuck the middle class they kept voting for this system for 30 years. Let them eat the shitstain they created. The same goes for those old-timers that pushed this garbage system onto the younger generations, fuck you you geriatric wastes of space. 

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 22:30 | 4811786 Dr Benway
Dr Benway's picture

But at what age do you draw the line of guilt? And what about young people who don't speak up or try to fight this evil self-destructive system? Truth is we are all guilty to varying degrees, that's how this system works, making an accomplice of everyone.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 23:14 | 4811857 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Most of us realize that to end the corruption at this late date would take us all down with as we are dependent on the financial streams the runoff this corrupt government produces. Regardless, we will still go down, but more and more people I speak to would rather get it over with now, even if it precipitates a confrontation with government. It should have failed long ago and many who prescribe to a more conservative or frugal economic principle could have survived it, but instead it has been pretend and extend bleeding us dry. We are seeing a continuing failure of small and midsize businesses because of this poor economy. Big business, that has access to capital through lending, stocks and crony contracts are instead buying up their competition. A relative is a manager in a large grocery chain that was recently bought out by another larger but less profitable competitor. They plan on shutting down most of the stores effectively eliminating their competition. Access to capital but no profits. The must sell most of the aquired real estate to pay down the debt from the aquisition. Hell of a thing. Borrow the money to buy your competition and then sell them off piecemeal to pay down the loan. Not exactly winning for the consumer, nor winning as an economic indicator. But this is what we see now. You can't profit from competition so you simply buy market share using borrowed money, creating less competition and ever greater, too big to fail, monopolies.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 23:22 | 4811874 Dr Benway
Dr Benway's picture

Thanks that's some really good examples of perverse outcomes of crony capitalism and financial repression

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 00:17 | 4811965 I MISS KUDLOW
I MISS KUDLOW's picture

i've already decided i'm capping myself at 70 unless i'm in just super great health.....

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 02:24 | 4812086 Bloody Muppet
Bloody Muppet's picture

When you're 69 you might decide otherwise.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 04:24 | 4812146 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

I wanna take one arrogant leftist with me.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 11:43 | 4812556 Yes We Can. But...
Yes We Can. But Lets Not.'s picture

...gulp...

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 23:24 | 4811878 Dr Benway
Dr Benway's picture

edit

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 00:10 | 4811943 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

I do not draw any lines. You get what you deserve. If you sat on your ass eating cheetos while the world burned around you, you deserve to be a the last fat ass for the funeral pyre. 

 

Everyone should be out lifting wieghts and getting into shape to get ready for what is coming. If you aren't, you're screwing yourself and those that depend on you. There are no excuses for being a lazy SOB and expecting others to protect you.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 04:00 | 4812139 in4mayshun
in4mayshun's picture

Cause huge biceps is gonna help when there's no food at the grocery stores and our government is unleashing biological weapons to take out masses of people.

You obviously have this all figured out.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 08:11 | 4812251 BlindMonkey
BlindMonkey's picture

Moron. Being healthy, strong and fast is not going to be an impediment to survival. Being a Cheetos eating fat ass will though.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 09:27 | 4812359 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Good luck fighting other idiots for survival while being too weak to move. Muscle mass can convert directly to energy. It is why good soldiers bulk up for deployments. To have those reserves instead of being weak and unable to keep up.

 

Unlike the rest of you, I was learning how to survive on 1000 calories a day for weeks at time while burning far more than that. Guess how I did it...

 

 

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 09:47 | 4812389 Jerome Lester H...
Jerome Lester Horwitz's picture

Amphetamines?

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 10:21 | 4812431 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

It is called self-motivation and the drive to survive.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 10:31 | 4812446 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Well, fine. As long as it does not interfere with my TV viewing pleasure.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 18:36 | 4812445 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

nah.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 11:23 | 4812522 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Actually Nid you do have a point. I coaxed Mr once into doing a week juice fast. For a couple of days he did feel not well but after acclimated he felt great. We added walks and hikes. At the end of the week he felt good so we decided to continue. At just under 3 weeks he decided to quit just because he felt like chewing something again. He actually thanked me for the whole experience because it showed him how little food he needed to survive and that hunger, though unpleasant, can be pushed through. Before he would go absolutely ballistic if he was hungry and would have to eat something right away.

I think you are very fortunate to have had military training to have shown you the limits and capability of your body by being so challenged. We seem to have lost that knowledge in our modern society.

Miffed;-)

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 04:24 | 4812143 Tapeworm
Tapeworm's picture

0

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 07:45 | 4812233 29.5 hours
29.5 hours's picture

 

 

Perhaps more important than physical development is political development.

The key task is figuring out how to unite our side so the arrogant reptiles cannot continue to divide and conquer.

 

 

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 09:31 | 4812367 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

You can not make friends with creatures that see you as potential prey. They are just as likely to skin you and make leather from your skin as they are to eat you as well.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 10:32 | 4812448 29.5 hours
29.5 hours's picture

 

 

Oh, I'm not talking about making friends with the reptiles. I'm talking about making friends with fellow idiots at ZH -- not the easiest of tasks...

 

 

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 01:00 | 4812019 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

A most excellent and devastating point.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 23:58 | 4811932 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

If I go down a dark alley at night in a bad neighborhood, am I supposed to just take the beating and allow myself to be robbed?! No. Despite ending up in the alley via my own negligence, I am going to fight back.

Time for the American people to wake up, fight back and construct some guillotines.

See you on the battlefield, as I'm not going "camping."

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 01:00 | 4812020 oooBooo
oooBooo's picture

what makes you think votes counted or if there was even a choice to vote for something else?

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 10:19 | 4812429 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

I have been around the country enough to know that most of the people actually believe the crap they were taught in school.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 08:46 | 4812287 Cloud9.5
Cloud9.5's picture

Give me a break; getting a choice to vote for Tweedldee or Tweedldum is not a choice.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 10:24 | 4812438 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Choosing to not fix the problem is still voting to keep the status quo.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 09:14 | 4812338 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

please do us a favor and off yourself

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 22:20 | 4811777 Dick Buttkiss
Dick Buttkiss's picture

"I did not hear about any recession on CNBS yet..."

OK, so you can afford a TV. You don't have to rub our noses in it.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 23:13 | 4811858 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

 

 

Bestest response of the evening?

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 23:34 | 4811900 MontgomeryScott
MontgomeryScott's picture

NAW.

The electric company shut down the service (temporarily) until the bill gets 'caught up', and the TEE VEE didn't work when the PMSNBC were talking about this.

I'd call you and talk in person, but my Obamaphone minutes are maxed out.

Sun, 06/01/2014 - 15:40 | 4814869 aempirei
aempirei's picture
This is Carcosa
Fri, 05/30/2014 - 21:07 | 4811628 drendebe10
drendebe10's picture

Bow down to mecca and give thanks to the corrupt arrogant narcissistic illegal indonesian kenyan liar in chief whose ploicies have accelerated the demise of the middle class while the liar in chief lives its grand celebrity imperial golf lifestyle....

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 00:03 | 4811938 MontgomeryScott
MontgomeryScott's picture

His religion really IS an unimportant and misleading strawman argument.

I heard those like you say that 'Reagaomics' was 'good', and then watched as the CIA's Grandpa, and VICE-PRESIDENT Bush, went after Saddam Hussein for the AUDACITY of trying to breach the OPEC accords and sell OIL in denominations OTHER than USD FED, in 'GULF-WAR ONE'.

BOW DOWN to the POWER of the U.S. FIAT DOLLAR!

You THOUGHT that YOUR 'boi' was better (like McCain, perhaps).

Let's play a little 'Depeche Mode' for you, to try to calm your distorted view of the REAL situation. It stars the SON of your GOD, BUSH (the JUNIOR).

Your bois at Langley and Chantilly and Haifa REALLY hate it when I repost this video, you know.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZeRwuN68VQ

You are what is classified as a 'useful eater': One who is easily emotionally manipulated in to spouting truths which look like 'conspiracy theories' is usually allowed to continue to do so, because devisiveness and the so-called 'spirit of apartheid' are very useful to the ones who are manipulating your mind.

Did you get your rant from 'Veterans Today', or 'News With Views', perhaps? Fucking CIA plant-schills come and go, by the dozen. The courts and the legal system have been owned for the past 101 YEARS in the CONUS. YOU just figured this out, and you're lashing out in extreme talk and prejudicial biases?

WHICH IS IT? He's a 'Devout Muslim' who doesn't smoke, drink, party, or do anything ELSE; or he's a party-boi faggot dope-smoking ass-raping manipulating atheistic illegal immigrant LIAR?

WHICH IS IT?!? He can't be BOTH, you know.

GOD, your mind is SO FUCKED UP NOW...

 

 

 

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 04:41 | 4812152 nightshiftsucks
nightshiftsucks's picture

Well take a look at those good Saudi muslim shieks and you will know what you just said is bullshit.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 10:41 | 4812459 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Not saying he is or isn't but surely you have heard the term "abrogation" used a bit. It is embraced by the Muslims (as well as just about everyone else) to allow a complete departure from their scriptural teaching in order to advance their more long term agenda. They can swear off pork and naked women and then attend a rib barbeque hosted by Hooters, if doing so enables them to advance their religious goals. This is nothing new and if you want to make a point at least make a good one.

What we do know about Obama...is nothing. He buried it...deep. When anyone works so hard to conceal small things like education records, he deserves every suspicion he gets. This most open and transparent president has done more to conceal and obscure everything than just about anyone before him. His goal has been to institute change, and he has been successful in setting records on just about every front. He has insured he will remain a historical figure for generations to come. That may not be a good thing.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 21:15 | 4811649 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

The middle class is dead.  Long live the middle class!  Nevermind.  That expression is reserved for Kings.  The middle class is dead.  

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 21:21 | 4811662 FredFlintstone
FredFlintstone's picture

Nope, just down for the count...probably wont make a comeback for the title. The MC will be sitting in a rocker with dementia living out its last days like Muhammad Ali.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 21:37 | 4811701 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Nah, just morphing into serfs.

Can't have kings without serfs.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 22:00 | 4811738 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

For fucking beautiful and spacious skies.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8xk1P1913y0

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 23:47 | 4811921 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

 

 

Re-Read, "When Money Dies," by...I forget his name.

He describes the every day life in Germany during severe Stagflation/Hyperinflation and guess what? The Gubmint employees, unions and Industrialist/corp leaders did ok.

Can you guess which sector got decimated?

That's right, private sector, Middle Class got punked hard; same as today.

 

http://www.amazon.com/When-Money-Dies-Devaluation-Hyperinflation/dp/1586...

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 01:07 | 4812014 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

"This is, I believe, a moral tale. It goes far to prove the revolutionary axiom that if you wish to destroy a nation you must corrupt its currency. Thus must sound money be the first bastion of a society's defence."
When Money Dies, Adam Fergusson, 1975

http://thirdparadigm.org/doc/45060880-When-Money-Dies.pdf

(Free .pdf copy)

The book ends with these haunting lines...

"In hyperinflation, a kilo of potatoes was worth, to some, more than the family silver; a side of pork more than the grand piano. A prostitute in the family was better than an infant corpse; theft was preferable to starvation; warmth was finer than honour, clothing more essential than democracy, food more needed than freedom."

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 06:26 | 4812187 inky
inky's picture

The illusion of a democracy is an insult to our intelligence.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 08:16 | 4812258 BlindMonkey
BlindMonkey's picture

I can still vote on American Idol though right?

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 12:04 | 4812582 Yes We Can. But...
Yes We Can. But Lets Not.'s picture

American Idol will be replaced with "What'll YOU Do For Ten Bucks?"

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 11:20 | 4812518 The Merovingian
The Merovingian's picture

Thanks for the link.  I'm reminded of one of my favorite Twain quotes ... 'History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme.'

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 21:16 | 4811650 q99x2
q99x2's picture

I think if you look up the definition of recession it now refers you to contact the Federal Reserve.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 00:10 | 4811949 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

that lashman guy at ecri has totally burned out

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 21:20 | 4811660 prains
prains's picture

The middle class is now a pair of ass cheeks encrusted with shit after a two week binge in south LA, found in a dumpster stripped and gagged

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 21:42 | 4811709 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

Alive though, right? 

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 22:38 | 4811785 prains
prains's picture

breathing from a benspirator

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 21:22 | 4811666 infinity8
infinity8's picture

Ok. I haven't even read this yet but - Thank You, Michael for not doing an actual numbered list (even though it looks like part of it is with the numbers removed). Really. I, too cannot wait for the complete and total economic collapse.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 22:34 | 4811797 Dr Benway
Dr Benway's picture

Haha join the club, mister! I'll finally be proven right when utter economic doom strikes.

I'm already planning my last words: "I told you so!"

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 21:25 | 4811676 Ms. Erable
Ms. Erable's picture

The article's title asks the wrong question. It should read Has the Next Leg Down in the Greater Depression Already Begun?

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 21:34 | 4811694 QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

Next? Did I miss the recovery from the last one?

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 21:37 | 4811705 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

I live in Washington DC area.  Thanks for sending us your money suckas!!!  We neva have a recession.  We always growing.  We love your money!!!

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 22:54 | 4811836 prains
prains's picture

...and you appear yet again to lay a fresh turd, but the jokes on YOU!!! r'tard you dropped a deuce in your own basement LOFL!!

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 06:21 | 4812183 svayambhu108
svayambhu108's picture

The US gasoline article is in error, here is why: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-30/us-gasoline-consumption-plummet...

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 21:41 | 4811707 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

Going to San Francisco Saturday for a week or so. Gonna jack with some hipsters just to make myself feel better. I'll make fun of their stupidly large watches and phones. Remind them how the Seahawks beat the Niners. Then the kicker....gee, your life seems shallow, is it? 

                       All because of that damn envy of the rich. Ha-ha! 

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 21:43 | 4811711 401K of Dooom
401K of Dooom's picture

Hey Tyler, when did the current "recession" end?  The media has been covering for Obama/the Democraps and the Bilderburgers.  Thank you for your site and the information it gives out.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 22:58 | 4811840 plane jain
plane jain's picture

Random thought...

Buildaburger

Conspiracy Themed Burger Spot...burgers served wrapped in tin foil.  Bet you could come up with some clever names based on well known/popular CTs.  Paper the walls with old News of the Weird so customers are entertained while standing in line.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 00:12 | 4811952 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

beats the tortise-burger:

In..........out...........In...........Out..........In...........Out

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 22:23 | 4811773 jack stephan
jack stephan's picture

Yes, but were getting to be pretty decent shots. 700 yards ar cold bore,300 yards ak with just red dot. I remember when the ak maker passed, people yapped about it can't hit 100, so I did 130 before my stand collapsed. So yes anything can be done if you put the time to it kids, do it anyways. Fuck em in the ear, if they don't like that fuck em in the other ear.

Ill practice with the others too, like you all should.

Good night and sweet dreams ladies, am I a pushy jerk, sure, but the advice is sound all the same.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 23:19 | 4811866 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

 

 

300 yards is very good with an AK.  My max would be about 120 - 150, I am OK at 100 so I am extrapolating... The AK as it is not a precision instrument, so knowing your weapon and how to shoot is critical to go out that far.  H/T!

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 00:14 | 4811956 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

DCRB:

a) get a good sling and adjust it to your natural inclinations in a position

b) BRASS

c) burst on target

and Bob's your uncle!

- Ned

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 09:08 | 4812331 DaddyO
DaddyO's picture

Let me introduce you to the most accurate AK's on the planet.

300 all day long, and all the reliability you've come to expect from the platform.

http://www.krebscustom.com/

DaddyO

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 22:19 | 4811774 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

It's not a recession it's a banana.

- Alfred Kahn, 1978

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 22:30 | 4811790 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Ahhhhh, the Carter years.

Again "how do we support the State now that all the classes have been obliterated?"

So far Borrowing MOAR has worked great actually...save for the pesky problem of "the economy."

We can reduce costs...I believe QE was called "stimulus" actually...and it would appear that stimulus has ended as it all went into a huge shot of inflation this winter and now a recession.

"There's always War with Russia"!
Hooray!

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 22:40 | 4811803 prains
prains's picture

....and a probable invasion by New Caledonia in hollowed out tree canoes, liebestraum baby!

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 22:31 | 4811788 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

The title should be:

"The Next Recession Has Already Begun For America's Middle Class."

I can't believe people still ask this question.

Labor_participation_rate.

THE indicator.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 23:20 | 4811868 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Very important, yes, but not the only indicator.  Maybe for us guys at 58 yrs old...

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 00:32 | 4811992 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Yup.

Thing is, Labor Force Participation rate seems to be the only one that isn't jiggered to a 3 martini (dirty, 2 olives) lunch.

And, if you aren't working, you don't have income, which falls onto all the other "statistics" that are hitting the middle class.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 01:40 | 4812048 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Why is it I fear that the next middle class will be those with ebt cards and the poor will be those without?

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 07:28 | 4812222 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

Hey 1955! We were ten years old and could buy a comic book and an ice cream cone for a silver quarter.....and get change. 

Silver beaches for now...

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 22:48 | 4811822 Smiley
Smiley's picture

NEXT recession?  When did the last one end?

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 22:50 | 4811823 starman
starman's picture

it never ended, matter of fact the transformation of USA is almost done. I am truly dumbfounded how people cant see or remember what this country used to be. 8 years and my daughter will be ready for college no shes not going to college in the USA I am packing and leaving the US!

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 01:04 | 4812023 Savyindallas
Savyindallas's picture

Our only hope is that the Americans (mostly sheeple) who own 200 million guns  - pull their heads out of their asses , wake up, and are able to defend America from domestic enemies-  gun owners are largely smarter and more in tune than non-gun owners  -but too many still have no clue.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 01:45 | 4812055 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Well, I've been thinking ahead and have inventoried a sizable arsenal and ammo stash for my friendlies who have been too bashful to plan ahead. And not just in quantity but diversity, something for everyone and every purpose.

variety is the spice of life!

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 02:42 | 4812106 Bloody Muppet
Bloody Muppet's picture

Yeah, guns are always the answer, especially to economic problems eh!

 

Wanker.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 06:49 | 4812202 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

"Political power grows from the barrel of a gun."

Mouse Dung.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 08:56 | 4812307 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

I do not believe we can defeat our own military.

I do believe in the power of deterrents however.

By remaining armed it will give pause to ANYONE to think twice, just one more incentive. This is how they drive us, a combination of incentives and disincentives, never one thing.

Our responsibility is resistance, anywhere and anyway we can do it.

I do the same with my wife. While knowing I will never win I still resist, drag my feet and slow down the process of her domination.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 18:24 | 4813223 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

There is much wisdom in this post....

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 03:13 | 4812122 bunnyswanson
bunnyswanson's picture

Just moments ago, read a response given by Karen Hudes:

"If you think the imminent crash of the dollar will not take out US military might you are sadly mistaken. I have also contacted three other offices in the Department of Defense, including Peter Verga, who is the Assistant Secretary of Defense that liaises with the Department of Homeland Security and the Governors' Council, with governors in each of the FEMA regions.?"

Comment on her Youtube video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5h1i-7qt88 (with Greg Hunter)

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 06:16 | 4812181 August
August's picture

>>>shes not going to college in the USA

This is an extremely good idea.  In most cases, a non-US university will be cheaper, and probably better, than the typical US school.  Student visas are easy to get, and can lead to something more permanent if that's the way the student wants to go.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 14:18 | 4812717 spacecadet
spacecadet's picture

Where are you gonna go? You can run but you can't hide

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 23:10 | 4811855 starman
starman's picture

One more thing; this is what happens when a government bails out instutitions and not the people!

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 23:13 | 4811860 MedicalQuack
MedicalQuack's picture

US consumers wanted jobs to help build decaying infrastructure and all we got were a bunch of data mining, scoring algorithms that has denied us access and made a lot of people wealthy sell our data.

White House is living "virtual" out there and the tech world has taken them over and as you see they are all doing well, i.e. Facebook. It's all about computer code and who's making the math models.  Economists can't see it but quants can as they are the talent that build good models or ones that lie for profit.  We have had a lot of the second out there and how so many got rich.  Some are now philanthropists that want a very low profile, yeah they don't want a smarter public now digging into their proprietary code that raked every one years ago. 

I started 3 years ago calling it The Attack of the Killer Algorithms...we get scored and denied access right and left, some junk science too.  The World Privacy Forum wrote it up and the rest of the world is watching "the scoring of America'...

http://ducknetweb.blogspot.com/2014/04/world-privacy-forum-report-scorin...

It's models that lie and use proprietary code that we don't get to see...Cathy O'Neill who did modeling for Larry Summers at DE Shaw sums it up well on the attitude of Wall Street, saying they were not ethical and sure they take advantage legally with code as they are smarter than everyone else and they can, and they did.  She says in one sentence, hedge funds are around to pilfer off retirement funds...that's their purpose she said in a PBS video. 

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 00:03 | 4811941 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

+1  Medical Quack.                                                                                                 Who needs Soylent Green when all they have to do is "sell our data."

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 23:18 | 4811865 NihilistZero
NihilistZero's picture

Did the 2000 recession ever end for the majority of Americans?

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 23:58 | 4811933 prains
prains's picture

....the depression has been printed over since 71

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 11:05 | 4812495 NihilistZero
NihilistZero's picture

Thanks for the correction prains.  I Down-Voted my own comment for lack of perspective...

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 02:44 | 4812109 Bloody Muppet
Bloody Muppet's picture

Did the 2000 recession ever end for the majority of Americans?

 

There have been 2 consecutive quarters of growth since then, so yeah.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 23:27 | 4811885 cape_royds
cape_royds's picture

A big part of the problem lies in the way the term "middle class" has been used in North America.

Most Americans who think of themselves as "middle class" are not middle class. Most of them do NOT control their own means of production.

They are NOT "middle class." Most Americans are, and have been since the early 20th cent., members of the Working Class. Most Americans today are proletarians.

Up until recently, for a variety of reasons, they were proletarians who enjoyed unusually good wages. But well-paid as they were, nevertheless in terms of their economic function they were still just proles. Their unusually high wages might have enabled them to consume the goods and services hitherto normally associated with the middle class, but that did not alter their economic role in society.

Now Americans are getting taken to Capitalism School. As people here on ZH might say, "enjoy your proledom, bitchez!"

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 02:46 | 4812110 Bloody Muppet
Bloody Muppet's picture

Good point. Of course middle class is subjective but working on the factory floor or being a desk slave certainly are not.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 04:31 | 4812147 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

"Only proles are free."

We are getting to the point where it is preferable to be a prole. Why work the long weeks and hours and put up with the BS when there is no reward that cannot be stolen, in fact is likely to be stolen at the finish line?

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 08:52 | 4812295 Farqued Up
Farqued Up's picture

Office Space, gonna get some flair to decorate my barrel and fugg it. The Dilbert version of Atlas Shrugged. The more I watch that stupid movie, the more it becomes another Dr. Strangelove, chock full of genius writing and wisdom. It just takes awhile to soak in.

Milton and the red stapler, fired 5 years earlier, no one told him and his check kept coming, hit the jackpot, hilarious!

 

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 12:07 | 4812585 kurt
kurt's picture

I think our main problem is our "friends". The Brits, elitists, can't bear to be thought of as a collapsed empire and are trying to hasten our downfall for two reasons: revenge, and jealousy. The Zionists, racists and elitists, can't stand to be anything but the rulers of the world with their convoluted deuteronomy text and more severe talmudic scholars which justify using, deceiving, and ultimately killing the goyim.

Oh and fuck you NSA.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 23:40 | 4811908 knicks3005
knicks3005's picture

C'mon guys, it was because of the blisterring cold weather, remember? lolz

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 23:52 | 4811927 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

"Has the next major economic downturn already started?"

I just saw a bear take a huge dump in the woods.

Good enough for me.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 23:54 | 4811930 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

                                     YUP.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 00:14 | 4811957 Duc888
Duc888's picture

 

 

 

ummmm, the last recession never ended.

 

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 01:39 | 4812047 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

In before "we're still in the last one"

 

oops, too late

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 00:18 | 4811966 pitz
pitz's picture

Did the recession/depression even stop in the wake of the 2000-2001 collapse?  For most America middle class, probably not.  Subprime credit and real estate propped many people up for at a few years, but now that's over.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 00:27 | 4811986 StarkFistofRemoval
StarkFistofRemoval's picture

Hey man! I'm STILL deleveraging! Talk to me in like December 2016.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 00:56 | 4812013 alexcojones
alexcojones's picture

Saw this and thought: "Let the game of musical chairs begin!"

US Gold Holdings Close To Zero

U.S. Gold Holdings Close To Zero U.S. Gold Holdings Close To Zero
Sat, 05/31/2014 - 03:11 | 4812120 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

The big mystery....do they or not?

Certainly no recent evidence of. No indpendent audit, for sure.

One of Ron Paul's "bucket list", but like auditing the Fed, will never <honestly> happen....if so...then something happened

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 01:22 | 4812033 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture
Jeopardy 2017:

 


The Current Recession Already Begun For America's Middle Class in what year, according to everyone now....

What is "mid 2014"

Alex: Correct

Fact & Fiction for 400....

Trebek: HE is reportedly living in Switzerland in an obscure chalet, under private guard, and has not been seen in public since 2014....

Who is Jon Corzine...

Alex: You could have asked who is Lloyd Blankfein, Jamie Dimon, and a host of others.....but you are correct..first to buzz in...

 

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 01:45 | 4812050 elephant
elephant's picture

Remember, very few people expected a recession the last time around either.

I don't know what people expect. I read ZeroHedge so it seems as though everyone expects a recession and has expected one for over five years now.

What is the world like outside this echo chamber?

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 01:58 | 4812065 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

I don't know but there is no echo cause their heads are in the sand. I imagine they are only hearing what is already in their heads unless someone deliberately pipes something else in. The vast majority of people are not just unopinionated but honestly have not a clue about anything specific that is going on. Further they don't want to know and will go out of their way to get away from or silence any source that would inform them. Their abillity to function depends upon being completely oblivious. We doomer types may be a bit obsessive but we do not lack information, maybe only perspective. Most everyone else is simply clueless and happier for it. With any luck when this shit storm lands they will be the first to go and not suffer too much...but I wouldn't bet on it. People will hang onto delusions longer than truths and can be down right vicious about it. Don't be telling them there is no Santa.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 02:06 | 4812070 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Let us not forget that new people are coming on board everyday in which case they wouldn't know what a recession is because they have no reference point. The older people die taking with them the memories of better days. The middle aged are caught up with keeping their heads above water, being consumer addicts and constantly adjusting to a changing landscape. Rather hard to define recession unless you actually lose your home or job.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 06:55 | 4812207 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

There is n Santa ?

Thats why I come here , to learn.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!