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Here Is What The Slide In Gold Is Being Blamed On (Hint: Weather)
When the US economy underperforms expectations, the weather is blamed; and now, on the heels of Japan's pre-emptive blaming of weather for crushed consumer spending patterns; The FT proclaims that El Nino is responsible for the weakness in gold (as monsoon season will reduce physical demand from India)... welcome to mainstream media meteoronomics 101. What is odd about this reasoning is that we are actually more prone to a La Nina than an El Nino pattern this year based on the Southern Oscillator Index.
Gold down due to El Nino - Via The FT,
Concerns about the effect of El Niño, which have hit commodities markets since the start of the year, is spreading to gold, as some analysts point to the weather phenomenon’s potential impact on India’s monsoon season.
he lack of physical buying by Indian consumers, normally active purchasers of the yellow metal, has been one of the bearish factors for the gold market this year. The precious metal was down 3 per cent on the week at $1,253.90 a troy ounce, and Edel Tully, precious metals strategist at UBS in London, said India was likely to be on the radar in June as the monsoon season started.
...
A bad monsoon could hit crops and lead to higher food inflation, prompting higher income earners to buy gold.
However, a larger impact on the gold market is likely to come from poor crops and rising food costs forcing farmers to “sell part of their gold holdings as well as leaving less money for gold purchases”, UBS added.
As we noted previously...though few have commented on it - the SOI has swung closer to La Nina than the El Noino threshold...
The Southern Oscillation Index, or SOI, gives an indication of the development and intensity of El Niño or La Niña events in the Pacific Ocean. The SOI is calculated using the pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin.
Sustained negative values of the SOI below −8 often indicate El Niño episodes. These negative values are usually accompanied by sustained warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, a decrease in the strength of the Pacific Trade Winds, and a reduction in winter and spring rainfall over much of eastern Australia and the Top End. You can read more about historical El Niño events and their effect on Australia in the Detailed analysis of past El Niño events.
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 are typical of a La Niña episode. They are associated with stronger Pacific trade winds and warmer sea temperatures to the north of Australia. Waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become cooler during this time. Together these give an increased probability that eastern and northern Australia will be wetter than normal.
Oddly, we are seeing more La Nina than El Nino weather... So buy gold?
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I am going to predict that the next big dip will be attributed to:
1) The full moon
2) Delay in release of the new Avengers movie
3) A purple dog that ate too many hot dogs
Hey, any of you guys remember the whole "Debt Ceiling" debacle? What's up with that these days? How come it's a non-issue now?
LOL, I remember Harry Reid and the Tanned Republican who smokes... what's he name.. speaker of the house... They were pulling their pants off in public about that Debt Ceiling.
BUT NOW IT'S ALL SILENT....
Really? I though they all wore gold shirts... literally made of gold.
Meanwhile the Indian government has done everything in its power to limit imports???
The wether made India sell $ 50 billion in gold in .002 seconds! LOL
1970s stagflation was blamed on a failed anchovy harvest off Peru.
Why can't gold be driven down by climate change?
"...Following Richard Nixon's imposition of wage and price controls on 15 August 1971, an initial wave of cost-push shocks in commodities was blamed for causing spiraling prices. Perhaps the most notorious factor cited at that time was the failure of the Peruvian anchovy fishery in 1972, a major source of livestock feed.[17]" ..."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation
I have no worries about short-term Au price movements. It is all part of the game. My ounces are still there.
Those who have some wealth should consider holding 5% - 20% in gold as soon as they reasonably can. Join the 1%, buy & hold physical gold!
More than, say, 20% might cause anxiety among some people. I myself like diversification. No need to be at the "All Inn" (at least most of us). About 14% of what we own is in PMs (mostly Au).
#AskBOE y u no by n hold gold?
O Dry One, you would have to ask the BOE themselves. Bearings don't twit nor use #hashtags!
I did see the good ol' doc hash tagging though. You KNOW we are on that list! And don't let the name fool ya ;)
El nino plus the billion dollars notional sold at market every morning.
Is it a surprise the paper gold market is getting smashed? As every day passes all the economic numbers are diverging further from reality. The game is almost up. The Fed could care less if the West has any gold. This is all out financial warfare with the East (BRIC's etc.). Gold will keep dropping until the reality overtakes the sham economy that the West has created. This could take a while so expect more pain ahead.
Yup. Got to be in for the long haul.
I thought they pushed through some kind of legislation that extended the debt ceiling into the foreseeable future, or took power out of the hands of Congress?
I'm thinking that most of the "budget" is now no longer subject to any so-called debt limits. Only the parts that benefit Joe Sixpack are.
If you don't talk about something, it no longer exists. This is how Amurika is run.
If you really want to know what happened to the problem, face a mirror and say 'Debt Ceiling' five times.
They cut a hole in the debt ceiling
Normally I'd call it a skylight, but in this case I think debt moonroof is more apt...
To the moon! (and beyond)
No it's "Glory Hole".
When you can print all the money you want any time you want, do you care how much you owe? Only the suckers that loaned you the money care.
All is well. I see no ceiling at all. All fixed!
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
May not have bot at the low but have been given the gift by the scumbags for over a year I never expected......so I've bot and bot and bot and bot.........thanks boyz
tempus aurum fortuna!
Yes, money is worth nothing now.
PROOF-Clippers sold for $2,000,000,000
...and in other signs of the apocalypse... The House passed a bill that will allow states to grow their own weed http://www.ourtime.org/?p=2757 . And if that wasnt enough...the bourbon shortage is expected to get worse.... http://bostinno.streetwise.co/2014/05/20/whiskey-shortage-in-the-u-s/
I prefer Vodka as an alternate source of money. You can make more fufu drinks with it. Chicks, man. Chicks.
"I took delivery from the comex, and all i got was this lousy nail gun."
When I drive thru town, my favorite sign states "will buy your scrap gold". Always makes me laugh.
Gold as a scrap metal.
It's a funny image, isn't it?
I will buy your "scrap" gold for $500 below spot. There is one born every minute.
"Chicks will get you through times of no bourbon better even better than vodka will get you through times of no bourbon, uh, well, whatever..., man..."
There's no such thing as a bourbon shortage. There's only mis-priced bourbon.
and central banking
wow. desperation or what?
maybe but you've got to admit they're pretty creative.
I CALL IT THE BUTTERFLY EFFECT!!!!
ps: you need to have a PHD in quantum fysics to understand
WHEN IT RAINS IN INDIA, THE GOLDPRICE IN AMERICA DROPS!!!
god save us all if somebody in Tibet farts....
I believe that the "Tibetan Fart Effect" is more completely described like this:
If 2000 Tibetan monks all fart at once, that methane would rise ALL AT ONCE into the atmosphere, causing warming there in China, China then has lower agricultural production, and so buys less gold. Price goes down.
Hey, just spelling out SD's theory in detail here, you should thank me...
When a yak farts in Tibet, Barry opens his mouth and tells another lie.
they are now also blaming it on on "dis-inflation". (neg GDP, no inflation, no reason to own gold to hedge against inflation). but we all know the manipulation so OTC contracts can stay OTM is the real reason :)
if you actually ran any kind of statisical analysis on gold prices vs. reported CPI figures you'd know that inflation argument is ... not statisically sigificant.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2242973-if-runaway-inflation-is-coming-w...
The CPI is a fucking joke. Please...
Every one of the gov. numbers are a joke and a lie. You wan't to see real numbers? Go to the gas station, grocery store and look at your bills at the end of the month. Those are the "REAL" numbers. Oh yea and now for the price of BACON. If only I could have seen that one coming.
no comment.
except, "no coment..."
Shall we just call it what it is.....manipulation. Or in other words polishing the turd dollar.
In the words of a ZH'er - can't remember who - that bear repeating:
"No, you can't polish a turd, but you can roll it in glitter."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yiJ9fy1qSFI
Sure you can. Ewww
You can polish a turd all you want it's still a turd.
I did that to a '78 Celica once ...
Full moon+(1/2)3.6El nino +/- GDP[@3.24+2.45%]x27.2C = $0.00/ounce.
It's all SCIENCE. All central planning.
I might even buy some at $0.00/ounce.
I thought weather was an act of God. Tis a Holy war the economists are fighting. and they are on the losing side.
Putin says Russia and China need to secure their gold and currency reserves
ST PETERSBURG Sat May 24, 2014 9:30am EDT
I read this as ‘diplomatic speak’ that other countries would be well advised to audit their reserves held in Western custodial vaults!
China must have authorized the comment although not wished to deliver it directly. The obvious reason to release such a statement now is that both Russia and China know that the Western vaults have now been emptied and the transfer is complete. Thoughts?
This will make the paper gods angry and you will feel the back of their paper hand against your face for the next few days.
The paper Gods will take a force majeure , why else this panic to start a world war anywhere ,now ?
"We're gonna need a bigger fall-guy."
Does Vladimir Putin Know Things:
http://winteractionables.com/?p=12053
Since Indian farmers are once again allowed to take out gold loans...no.
Weather correlated with gold? If it looks and smells like bullshit, I'm not going to assume it's molten chocolate. People are going to get fleeced with this kind of pseudo-sciencey economic nonsense being reported in the mainstream media. But perhaps that's the point.
When its raining bullshit, you go long umbrellas and for gods sake stay clear of rotating objects..
i always laughed at the "poor third worlders are buying gold" meme. poor people have no staying power.
I don't know why all the Indians sell at the London Fix. You would think they would use a local shop or something.
Gold and silver are excellent conductors of heat, so carrying them in pockets pulls all of the heat out of my body and makes me feel cold so I had to sell all of it at market in one order.
Gold pushing down toward 1240.
Maybe everyone is selling Gold in order to buy more AAPL and NFLX, the real sources of value in our economy.
I hope it falls below 1180.
I may not be able to wait any longer then for fear that inventories will dry up.
They keep chipping away at the FRN..
Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan sign ‘epoch' Eurasian Economic Union
Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan signed the historic Eurasian Economic Union which will come into effect in January 2015. Cutting down trade barriers and comprising over 170 million people it will be the largest common market in the ex-Soviet sphere.
Do you think for a moment that those countries ever conducted trade in USD with each other? Belarus? Really??
Does this mean that NASA will have to pay Roubles to lease Baikonur?
The janitorial staff at Baikonur , who, by the way, really run the place, happily take rent payments in vodka.
And how does Exxon price its alliances with the Russian hydrocarbon complex, in multi-colored ClownBux?
If I was Putin i wouild send the bill as.........
"Payable in Gold, Silver or Roubles Only"
Oh and "thanks for your business"!
And the moment he does that, Russian imports will likely subject to the same treatment...
Net result is a wash...
B U L L S H I T ! ! !
And lies, both staples of the current and past US presidential regimes.
I would love to see you asking questions in the next POTUS press conference.
I would love to. They wouldn't be the bullshit softball questions they get but I would still receive the same old lies in return out of Carney's mouth.
I love my country, I fear my government. Google what it means when you fear your government and why.
I guess the 'lack of physical buying' by Indian consumers had nothing to do with the Indian gov't's (western central bank demanded) heavy restrictions on gold imports, which required 80% of imported metal to be exported right back out of there.
Those sillies don't really want any gold, see? They want GMO crops, American movin pitchers and fed reserve notes.
They want to be pwned. So should we. Keep me in the manner to which I have become accustomed, bitchez. Get that gold away from me, it brings on bad weather!
Trollolloloolo
wtf?
As for the current state of the SOI and what that "predicts", here is what the people that actually monitor and meausre the ENSO have to say
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_ev...
Be sure to check out pg 24....
Yeah, it looks like we're heading into a big el nino. Whereever the OP is getting his data, he is wrong.
It could very well rival the 97-98 one which will put to rest all that bullshit about "no warming for xx years".....
Can ORI give us an update .
Has Monsoon even started ?
A little early for it, and El Nino would make no difference.A bathtub of water dumped at once ,
is still a bathtub of water.
"Has Monsoon even started ?"
Have you accounted for the time zone change?
Modi.... that is all.
"No handles." If you still have cash keep stackin'.
People who think the conspiracy is scary might want to ponder the truth actually. "If there's no money for crazy gold bugs to buy anymore...what is there money for to buy the Bullshitski with?"
Double BS ... since when did the price of physical have anything to do with the 'real' market
When the junk bond market corrects 40%? In a week?
Germany audits its Gold and POG tanks, Austria Audits its Gold and POG Tanks...
India announes import restrictions, POG tanks, India elects leader likely to remove tarrifs and POG tanks, Russia announces it and China need to "secure" reserves and POG tanks, Troika announces plan to raid Eurozone bank accounts (Cyprus), POG tanks, Swiss Franc pegs to Euro POG tanks.
There is some kind of pattern here...
It makes no sense;
China and India consuming more gold than the world minesYet the price is dropping faster than a boy's pants at the Neverland Ranch
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-analysis?oid=2429...
Yeah, and Americans and the like are cashing in old busted jewelery like it is no tomorrow....
...dropping faster than a boy's pants at the Neverland Ranch.
LOL...my keyboard and mouse are ruined, no +1 for you.
Then load up on RBY by all means....
Possibly the finest undeveloped ore body in the world with the bonus that it is located in politically safe Canada...
They will get tired of trying to maintain this nonsense. It isn't interesting or profitable anymore. As much as they move the prices around, the Barclay's guy proved they take trading losses doing it. And for what? So they don't have to pay out from some other account.
It's a little disturbing that you used the MJ reference. Isn't that like blaming Bush?
Gold plunging in dollars.
Dollar falling (vs. some other fiat currency).
Silver falling.
Stocks flat today.
Macro-news terrible.
So what's RISING...?
"So what's RISING...?"
the numbr of ounces im about to order from APMEX.
Obama's pecker as he looks at pics of his Reggie
Bitcoin. Early stage bull market? Has been rallying for a month now. Probably the first responder to the dire macro data.
No wonder why I've been having trouble taking a shit.
Fuck you El Nino.
Long USLV 37.43.
DAMN YOU WORLD WEATHERRR!
"What is odd about this reasoning is that we are actualkly more prone to a La Nina"
This is wrong. I don't know where you're getting your data. But we're neutral right now, with an extremely high probability of el nino formation by the end of the year. If you want to know about el nino, there is only one place to go. NOAA updates this presentation usually twice per month:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
The probabilities of el nino formation rise from 60% to 80% until the end of the year.(see slide 24: " CPC/IRI Probabilistic ENSO Outlook") This el nino may be a big one. Last time it looked like this was 1998.
i trust NOAA way more than the Aussies. NOAA has sensors all over the ocean. Aussies have how many?
I don't think that the Australian data and the NOAA data are even inconsistent. It is just that SOI is a trailing indicator(atmospheric conditions) and ENSO is a leading indicator(oceanic conditions). SOI tells us we haven't had an El Nino recently. ENSO tells us we're going to have one soon.
Gold is sliding down because 5,000 years of proven wealth preservation is not enough data to form any type of credible conclusion... and besides, the utlility of Gold is not taught at Harvard, Yale, Princeton, etc.....
this is just the media stretching for some reason to explain the drop in gold prices. They really have no clue.
Just like yesterday when they said the drop in GDP was bullish for the next quarter. You know, "pent up demand" and all that.
worthless
Just listen to those anti-gold presstitutes crowing on CNBC...it's one continuous Krugasm.
I was going to order some gold on-line today, but it is cloudy outside. I'll just hold off until Al Gore gives the all clear.
i expect gold to hit multi year lows this summer due to the powers pushing it down. Look for inflation to start to really get going later this year (even in the fudged govt numbers). This will put a catalyst in for gold and start the uptrend we all know is coming. China is looking ugly and Japan is looking fugly. Shadstat's Williams is predicting hyperinflation by the end of the year! Not sure that will happen but when gold hits $1080 I am all in on the miners.
If we get to Au = 1080 and a GSR of 72, I'm all in at Ag = 15. Hell, I'm all in at GSR = 72 regardless of what the FRN conversion rate may be.
Thank goodness I lived most of my life when weather was not a factor. If I didn't know better, I would think linking weather with every issue, is somehow propaganda linked to socialist climate change and we are all going to die in 500 days?
This Administration must have a straw man FOR EVERYTHING in order to justify the complex agenda that they are incrementally putting in place. In all cases, "the weather" serves two purposes for the Administration - first it focuses everything on the pressing climate change (aka wealth redistribution) agenda; second, it serves as the strawman for failure, change, whatever the underlying truths happen to be. It does have a psychological brilliance to it no matter how much I and others disagree, since anyone in disagreement is forced to argue against their false reason first, then prove their case for truth second. The problem being, once you have dismissed weather as a causal mechanism, their defense is to reiterate weather and climate change and then marginalize you as a "denier." And at this stage of the game, the "circle is a square" mantra has achieved enough traction that indeed, you are "othered" and "fringed" if weather is pushed aside no matter the lack of truth.
Now, this is indeed a complex playbook in action, but wow is it effective from their point of view. The sheer depth of "weather" as a purported reason for things is staggering in even the most cursory of examinations.
All manner of diseases and illnesses were once blamed on "Demons!"
Consulting a seasonal gold chart will tell you that gold traditionally drops going into July practically every year.
Trade accordingly
Correlation, casuality ... meh, what's the difference?
/sarc (for those who need it)
well, when you look at it, considering everything else is arse-about-face, back to front, good is bad, less is more, etc.......i would be more concerned if gold bucked this trend by behaving logically. it'll all come out in the wash sooner or later.
The FT must do yoga, because its tough to stretch so far without it.
Sheeple love paper & they deep down want to be hurt.
My thought is that they are manipulating the price down so they can purchase TONS of the real stuff, not paper pm at a bargain basement price. Trade your paper gold for real gold. Looks like I will be dollar cost averaging some more PM's this weekend. :)
Wait what? I didn't know Indians held GLD...
Only the ones with tomahawks, not those with turbans.
GLD is for when they run out of EBT, dontcha know. /s
BTFD
Just laugh at all this noise. Real money advocates should be loving all this. It's a gift.
Trade as many funny fiat papers for PMs as often you can.
FT is running a deliberate false psy-ops here.