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Here Is What The Slide In Gold Is Being Blamed On (Hint: Weather)

Tyler Durden's picture




 

When the US economy underperforms expectations, the weather is blamed; and now, on the heels of Japan's pre-emptive blaming of weather for crushed consumer spending patterns; The FT proclaims that El Nino is responsible for the weakness in gold (as monsoon season will reduce physical demand from India)... welcome to mainstream media meteoronomics 101. What is odd about this reasoning is that we are actually more prone to a La Nina than an El Nino pattern this year based on the Southern Oscillator Index.

 

Gold down due to El Nino - Via The FT,

Concerns about the effect of El Niño, which have hit commodities markets since the start of the year, is spreading to gold, as some analysts point to the weather phenomenon’s potential impact on India’s monsoon season.

 

he lack of physical buying by Indian consumers, normally active purchasers of the yellow metal, has been one of the bearish factors for the gold market this year. The precious metal was down 3 per cent on the week at $1,253.90 a troy ounce, and Edel Tully, precious metals strategist at UBS in London, said India was likely to be on the radar in June as the monsoon season started.

 

...

 

A bad monsoon could hit crops and lead to higher food inflation, prompting higher income earners to buy gold.

 

However, a larger impact on the gold market is likely to come from poor crops and rising food costs forcing farmers to “sell part of their gold holdings as well as leaving less money for gold purchases”, UBS added.

As we noted previously...though few have commented on it - the SOI has swung closer to La Nina than the El Noino threshold...

The Southern Oscillation Index, or SOI, gives an indication of the development and intensity of El Niño or La Niña events in the Pacific Ocean. The SOI is calculated using the pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin.

 

Sustained negative values of the SOI below −8 often indicate El Niño episodes. These negative values are usually accompanied by sustained warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, a decrease in the strength of the Pacific Trade Winds, and a reduction in winter and spring rainfall over much of eastern Australia and the Top End. You can read more about historical El Niño events and their effect on Australia in the Detailed analysis of past El Niño events.

 

Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 are typical of a La Niña episode. They are associated with stronger Pacific trade winds and warmer sea temperatures to the north of Australia. Waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become cooler during this time. Together these give an increased probability that eastern and northern Australia will be wetter than normal.

Oddly, we are seeing more La Nina than El Nino weather... So buy gold?

 

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Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:42 | 4809623 DannoH
DannoH's picture

I am going to predict that the next big dip will be attributed to:

1) The full moon

2) Delay in release of the new Avengers movie

3) A purple dog that ate too many hot dogs

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:45 | 4809633 flacon
flacon's picture

Hey, any of you guys remember the whole "Debt Ceiling" debacle? What's up with that these days? How come it's a non-issue now? 

 

LOL, I remember Harry Reid and the Tanned Republican who smokes... what's he name.. speaker of the house... They were pulling their pants off in public about that Debt Ceiling.

 

BUT NOW IT'S ALL SILENT.... 

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:49 | 4809653 StacksOnStacks
StacksOnStacks's picture

Really?  I though they all wore gold shirts... literally made of gold.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:58 | 4809694 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Meanwhile the Indian government has done everything in its power to limit imports???

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:18 | 4809788 Badabing
Badabing's picture

The wether made India sell $ 50 billion in gold in .002 seconds! LOL

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:27 | 4809838 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

1970s stagflation was blamed on a failed anchovy harvest off Peru.

Why can't gold be driven down by climate change?

"...Following Richard Nixon's imposition of wage and price controls on 15 August 1971, an initial wave of cost-push shocks in commodities was blamed for causing spiraling prices. Perhaps the most notorious factor cited at that time was the failure of the Peruvian anchovy fishery in 1972, a major source of livestock feed.[17]" ..."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:37 | 4809871 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I have no worries about short-term Au price movements.  It is all part of the game.  My ounces are still there.

Those who have some wealth should consider holding 5% - 20% in gold as soon as they reasonably can.  Join the 1%, buy & hold physical gold!

More than, say, 20% might cause anxiety among some people.  I myself like diversification.  No need to be at the "All Inn" (at least most of us).  About 14% of what we own is in PMs (mostly Au).

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:45 | 4809899 linniepar
linniepar's picture

#AskBOE y u no by n hold gold?

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:53 | 4809931 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

O Dry One, you would have to ask the BOE themselves.  Bearings don't twit nor use #hashtags!

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 13:03 | 4809970 linniepar
linniepar's picture

I did see the good ol' doc hash tagging though. You KNOW we are on that list! And don't let the name fool ya ;)

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 13:27 | 4810046 strannick
strannick's picture

 

El nino plus the billion dollars notional sold at market every morning.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 14:11 | 4810257 dryam
dryam's picture

Is it a surprise the paper gold market is getting smashed? As every day passes all the economic numbers are diverging further from reality. The game is almost up. The Fed could care less if the West has any gold. This is all out financial warfare with the East (BRIC's etc.). Gold will keep dropping until the reality overtakes the sham economy that the West has created. This could take a while so expect more pain ahead.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 21:26 | 4811679 Pemaquid
Pemaquid's picture

Yup. Got to be in for the long haul.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:49 | 4809654 BrosephStiglitz
BrosephStiglitz's picture

I thought they pushed through some kind of legislation that extended the debt ceiling into the foreseeable future, or took power out of the hands of Congress?

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:59 | 4809700 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I'm thinking that most of the "budget" is now no longer subject to any so-called debt limits. Only the parts that benefit Joe Sixpack are.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:18 | 4809769 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

If you don't talk about something, it no longer exists. This is how Amurika is run.

If you really want to know what happened to the problem, face a mirror and say 'Debt Ceiling' five times. 

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:32 | 4809853 Badabing
Badabing's picture

They cut a hole in the debt ceiling

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:42 | 4809887 hidingfromhelis
hidingfromhelis's picture

Normally I'd call it a skylight, but in this case I think debt moonroof is more apt...

To the moon! (and beyond)

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 13:37 | 4810093 outamyeffinway
outamyeffinway's picture

No it's "Glory Hole".

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:31 | 4809845 Lionhearted
Lionhearted's picture

When you can print all the money you want any time you want, do you care how much you owe? Only the suckers that loaned you the money care.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:27 | 4809841 Caveman93
Caveman93's picture

All is well. I see no ceiling at all. All fixed!

http://www.usdebtclock.org/ 

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:48 | 4809645 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

May not have bot at the low but have been given the gift by the scumbags for over a year I never expected......so I've bot and bot and bot and bot.........thanks boyz

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:57 | 4809945 what's that smell
what's that smell's picture

tempus aurum fortuna!

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:38 | 4809878 TideFighter
TideFighter's picture

Yes, money is worth nothing now.

PROOF-Clippers sold for $2,000,000,000

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:42 | 4809624 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

...and in other signs of the apocalypse... The House passed a bill that will allow states to grow their own weed http://www.ourtime.org/?p=2757 . And if that wasnt enough...the bourbon shortage is expected to get worse.... http://bostinno.streetwise.co/2014/05/20/whiskey-shortage-in-the-u-s/

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:45 | 4809631 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I prefer Vodka as an alternate source of money.  You can make more fufu drinks with it.  Chicks, man.  Chicks.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:46 | 4809634 maskone909
maskone909's picture

"I took delivery from the comex, and all i got was this lousy nail gun."

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:59 | 4809697 WhyDoesItHurtWh...
WhyDoesItHurtWhen iPee's picture

When I drive thru town, my favorite sign states "will buy your scrap gold".  Always makes me laugh.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:55 | 4809941 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

Gold as a scrap metal.

It's a funny image, isn't it?

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 18:49 | 4810023 Lionhearted
Lionhearted's picture

I will buy your "scrap" gold for $500 below spot. There is one born every minute.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:48 | 4809911 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

 

 

"Chicks will get you through times of no bourbon better even better than vodka will get you through times of no bourbon, uh, well, whatever..., man..."

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:00 | 4809683 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

There's no such thing as a bourbon shortage. There's only mis-priced bourbon.

and central banking

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:44 | 4809628 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

wow. desperation or what? 

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:35 | 4809733 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

maybe but you've got to admit they're pretty creative.

I CALL IT THE BUTTERFLY EFFECT!!!!

ps: you need to have a PHD in quantum fysics to understand

WHEN IT RAINS IN INDIA, THE GOLDPRICE IN AMERICA DROPS!!!

god save us all if somebody in Tibet farts....

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:42 | 4809889 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture
  • INDIA TO INCLUDE FARTING YETIS IN GDP CALCULATION
Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:43 | 4809892 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

 

 

I believe that the "Tibetan Fart Effect" is more completely described like this:

If 2000 Tibetan monks all fart at once, that methane would rise ALL AT ONCE into the atmosphere, causing warming there in China, China then has lower agricultural production, and so buys less gold.  Price goes down.

Hey, just spelling out SD's theory in detail here, you should thank me...

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:49 | 4809918 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

When a yak farts in Tibet, Barry opens his mouth and tells another lie.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:44 | 4809629 bam
bam's picture

they are now also blaming it on on "dis-inflation". (neg GDP, no inflation, no reason to own gold to hedge against inflation). but we all know the manipulation so OTC contracts can stay OTM is the real reason :) 

if you actually ran any kind of statisical analysis on gold prices vs. reported CPI figures you'd know that inflation argument is ... not statisically sigificant. 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2242973-if-runaway-inflation-is-coming-w...

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:49 | 4809649 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

The CPI is a fucking joke. Please...

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 13:07 | 4809985 Lionhearted
Lionhearted's picture

Every one of the gov. numbers are a joke and a lie. You wan't to see real numbers? Go to the gas station, grocery store and look at your bills at the end of the month. Those are the "REAL" numbers. Oh yea and now for the price of BACON. If only I could have seen that one coming.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:46 | 4809636 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

no comment.

except, "no coment..."

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:46 | 4809640 Q-Q-Q
Q-Q-Q's picture

Shall we just call it what it is.....manipulation. Or in other words polishing the turd dollar.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:49 | 4809652 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

In the words of a ZH'er - can't remember who - that bear repeating:

"No, you can't polish a turd, but you can roll it in glitter."

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:15 | 4809776 Pickleton
Fri, 05/30/2014 - 15:20 | 4810532 Lionhearted
Lionhearted's picture

You can polish a turd all you want it's still a turd.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 13:46 | 4810132 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

I did that to a '78 Celica once ...

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:46 | 4809643 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

Full moon+(1/2)3.6El nino +/- GDP[@3.24+2.45%]x27.2C = $0.00/ounce.

It's all SCIENCE.  All central planning.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:46 | 4809901 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

I might even buy some at $0.00/ounce.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:46 | 4809644 q99x2
q99x2's picture

I thought weather was an act of God. Tis a Holy war the economists are fighting. and they are on the losing side.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:49 | 4809646 Q-Q-Q
Q-Q-Q's picture

Putin says Russia and China need to secure their gold and currency reserves
ST PETERSBURG Sat May 24, 2014 9:30am EDT

 

 

I read this as ‘diplomatic speak’ that other countries would be well advised to audit their reserves held in Western custodial vaults!

China must have authorized the comment although not wished to deliver it directly. The obvious reason to release such a statement now is that both Russia and China know that the Western vaults have now been emptied and the transfer is complete. Thoughts?

This will make the paper gods angry and you will feel the back of their paper hand against your face for the next few days.

 

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:52 | 4809666 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

The paper Gods will take a force majeure , why else this panic to start a world war anywhere ,now ?

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:56 | 4809687 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

"We're gonna need a bigger fall-guy."

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 13:04 | 4809976 russwinter
russwinter's picture

Does Vladimir Putin Know Things:

http://winteractionables.com/?p=12053

 

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:51 | 4809662 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Since Indian farmers are once again allowed to take out gold loans...no.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:52 | 4809664 BrosephStiglitz
BrosephStiglitz's picture

Weather correlated with gold?  If it looks and smells like bullshit, I'm not going to assume it's molten chocolate.  People are going to get fleeced with this kind of pseudo-sciencey economic nonsense being reported in the mainstream media.  But perhaps that's the point.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:54 | 4809669 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

When its raining bullshit, you go long umbrellas and for gods sake stay clear of rotating objects..

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:53 | 4809670 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

i always laughed at the "poor third worlders are buying gold" meme. poor people have no staying power.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:55 | 4809681 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I don't know why all the Indians sell at the London Fix.  You would think they would use a local shop or something.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:54 | 4809672 Spungo
Spungo's picture

Gold and silver are excellent conductors of heat, so carrying them in pockets pulls all of the heat out of my body and makes me feel cold so I had to sell all of it at market in one order.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:54 | 4809675 Hindenburg...Oh Man
Hindenburg...Oh Man's picture

Gold pushing down toward 1240. 

Maybe everyone is selling Gold in order to buy more AAPL and NFLX, the real sources of value in our economy. 

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 13:42 | 4810113 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

I hope it falls below 1180.

I may not be able to wait any longer then for fear that inventories will dry up.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:54 | 4809676 kill switch
kill switch's picture

They keep chipping away at the FRN..

Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan sign ‘epoch' Eurasian Economic Union

Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan signed the historic Eurasian Economic Union which will come into effect in January 2015. Cutting down trade barriers and comprising over 170 million people it will be the largest common market in the ex-Soviet sphere.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:02 | 4809715 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Do you think for a moment that those countries ever conducted trade in USD with each other? Belarus? Really??

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:49 | 4809915 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Does this mean that NASA will have to pay Roubles to lease Baikonur? 

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:52 | 4809925 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

The janitorial staff at Baikonur , who, by the way, really run the place, happily take rent payments in vodka.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 13:02 | 4809963 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

And how does Exxon price its alliances with the Russian hydrocarbon complex, in multi-colored ClownBux?

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:57 | 4809946 Renewable Life
Renewable Life's picture

If I was Putin i wouild send the bill as......... 

"Payable in Gold, Silver or Roubles Only"

Oh and "thanks for your business"!

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 13:51 | 4810149 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

And the moment he does that, Russian imports will likely subject to the same treatment...

Net result is a wash...

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:57 | 4809685 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

B U L L S H I T ! ! !

And lies, both staples of the current and past US presidential regimes.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:53 | 4809929 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

I would love to see you asking questions in the next POTUS press conference.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 13:14 | 4810001 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

I would love to.  They wouldn't be the bullshit softball questions they get but I would still receive the same old lies in return out of Carney's mouth.

I love my country, I fear my government.  Google what it means when you fear your government and why.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:56 | 4809686 Conax
Conax's picture

I guess the 'lack of physical buying' by Indian consumers had nothing to do with the Indian gov't's (western central bank demanded) heavy restrictions on gold imports, which required 80% of imported metal to be exported right back out of there.

Those sillies don't really want any gold, see? They want GMO crops, American movin pitchers and fed reserve notes.

They want to be pwned.  So should we.  Keep me in the manner to which I have become accustomed, bitchez. Get that gold away from me, it brings on bad weather!

Trollolloloolo  

wtf?

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:57 | 4809689 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

As for the current state of the SOI and what that "predicts", here is what the people that actually monitor and meausre the ENSO have to say

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_ev...

Be sure to check out pg 24....

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:17 | 4809784 MrFailSauce
MrFailSauce's picture

 Yeah, it looks like we're heading into a big el nino.  Whereever the OP is getting his data, he is wrong.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:18 | 4809789 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

It could very well rival the 97-98 one which will put to rest all that bullshit about "no warming for xx years".....

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:57 | 4809692 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Can ORI give us an update .

Has Monsoon even started ?

A little early for it, and El Nino would make no difference.A bathtub of water dumped at once ,

is still a bathtub of water.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:19 | 4809790 Pickleton
Pickleton's picture

"Has Monsoon even started ?"

 

Have you accounted for the time zone change?

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:58 | 4809695 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Modi.... that is all.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:01 | 4809709 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"No handles." If you still have cash keep stackin'.

People who think the conspiracy is scary might want to ponder the truth actually. "If there's no money for crazy gold bugs to buy anymore...what is there money for to buy the Bullshitski with?"

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:58 | 4809696 Bear
Bear's picture

Double BS ... since when did the price of physical have anything to do with the 'real' market

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:02 | 4809713 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

When the junk bond market corrects 40%? In a week?

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:59 | 4809699 crakinshot
crakinshot's picture

Germany audits its Gold and POG tanks, Austria Audits its Gold and POG Tanks...

 

 

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:21 | 4809797 ForWhomTheTollBuilds
ForWhomTheTollBuilds's picture

India announes import restrictions, POG tanks, India elects leader likely to remove tarrifs and POG tanks, Russia announces it and China need to "secure" reserves and POG tanks, Troika announces plan to raid Eurozone bank accounts (Cyprus), POG tanks, Swiss Franc pegs to Euro POG tanks.

 

There is some kind of pattern here...

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:00 | 4809704 Took Red Pill
Took Red Pill's picture

It makes no sense; 

China and India consuming more gold than the world mines

Yet the price is dropping faster than a boy's pants at the Neverland Ranch

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-analysis?oid=2429...

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:04 | 4809723 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Yeah, and Americans and the like are cashing in old busted jewelery like it is no tomorrow....

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:07 | 4809726 TalkToLind
TalkToLind's picture

...dropping faster than a boy's pants at the Neverland Ranch.

LOL...my keyboard and mouse are ruined, no +1 for you.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:24 | 4809819 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Then load up on RBY by all means....

Possibly the finest undeveloped ore body in the world with the bonus that it is located in politically safe Canada...

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:42 | 4809888 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

They will get tired of trying to maintain this nonsense.  It isn't interesting or profitable anymore.  As much as they move the prices around, the Barclay's guy proved they take trading losses doing it.  And for what?  So they don't have to pay out from some other account.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 13:03 | 4809969 Snoopy the Economist
Snoopy the Economist's picture

It's a little disturbing that you used the MJ reference. Isn't that like blaming Bush?

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:05 | 4809724 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

Gold plunging in dollars.

Dollar falling (vs. some other fiat currency).

Silver falling.

Stocks flat today.

Macro-news terrible.

So what's RISING...?

 

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:09 | 4809739 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

"So what's RISING...?"

the numbr of ounces im about to order from APMEX.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:09 | 4809745 Charles Nelson ...
Charles Nelson Reilly's picture

Obama's pecker as he looks at pics of his Reggie

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 14:38 | 4810394 BrosephStiglitz
BrosephStiglitz's picture

Bitcoin.  Early stage bull market?  Has been rallying for a month now.  Probably the first responder to the dire macro data.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:12 | 4809756 ArmyofOne
ArmyofOne's picture

No wonder why I've been having trouble taking a shit.

 Fuck you El Nino.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:13 | 4809761 Hongcha
Hongcha's picture

Long USLV 37.43.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:14 | 4809766 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

DAMN YOU WORLD WEATHERRR!

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:14 | 4809767 MrFailSauce
MrFailSauce's picture

"What is odd about this reasoning is that we are actualkly more prone to a La Nina"

 

This is wrong. I don't know where you're getting your data.  But we're neutral right now, with an extremely high probability of el nino formation by the end of the year.  If you want to know about el nino, there is only one place to go.  NOAA updates this presentation usually twice per month:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

The probabilities of el nino formation rise from 60% to 80% until the end of the year.(see slide 24: " CPC/IRI Probabilistic ENSO Outlook")  This el nino may be a big one. Last time it looked like this was 1998.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:47 | 4809907 sandiegoman
sandiegoman's picture

i trust NOAA way more than the Aussies. NOAA has sensors all over the ocean. Aussies have how many?

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 17:05 | 4810939 MrFailSauce
MrFailSauce's picture

I don't think that the Australian data and the NOAA data are even inconsistent.  It is just that SOI is a trailing indicator(atmospheric conditions) and ENSO is a leading indicator(oceanic conditions).  SOI tells us we haven't had an El Nino recently.  ENSO tells us we're going to have one soon.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:16 | 4809783 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

Gold is sliding down because 5,000 years of proven wealth preservation is not enough data to form any type of credible conclusion... and besides, the utlility of Gold is not taught at Harvard, Yale, Princeton, etc.....

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:19 | 4809793 Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

this is just the media stretching for some reason to explain the drop in gold prices.  They really have no clue. 

Just like yesterday when they said the drop in GDP was bullish for the next quarter.  You know, "pent up demand" and all that.

worthless

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:32 | 4809852 TalkToLind
TalkToLind's picture

Just listen to those anti-gold presstitutes crowing on CNBC...it's one continuous Krugasm.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:43 | 4809884 Eahudimac
Eahudimac's picture

I was going to order some gold on-line today, but it is cloudy outside. I'll just hold off until Al Gore gives the all clear.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:45 | 4809896 sandiegoman
sandiegoman's picture

i expect gold to hit multi year lows this summer due to the powers pushing it down. Look for inflation to start to really get going later this year (even in the fudged govt numbers). This will put a catalyst in for gold and start the uptrend we all know is coming.  China is looking  ugly and Japan is looking fugly. Shadstat's Williams is predicting hyperinflation by the end of the year! Not sure that will happen but when gold hits $1080 I am all in on the miners.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 13:36 | 4810089 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

If we get to Au = 1080 and a GSR of 72, I'm all in at Ag = 15.  Hell, I'm all in at GSR = 72 regardless of what the FRN conversion rate may be.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:47 | 4809905 autofixer
autofixer's picture

Thank goodness I lived most of my life when weather was not a factor.  If I didn't know better, I would think linking weather with every issue, is somehow propaganda linked to socialist climate change and we are all going to die in 500 days? 

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:49 | 4809916 conspicio
conspicio's picture

This Administration must have a straw man FOR EVERYTHING in order to justify the complex agenda that they are incrementally putting in place. In all cases, "the weather" serves two purposes for the Administration - first it focuses everything on the pressing climate change (aka wealth redistribution) agenda; second, it serves as the strawman for failure, change, whatever the underlying truths happen to be. It does have a psychological brilliance to it no matter how much I and others disagree, since anyone in disagreement is forced to argue against their false reason first, then prove their case for truth second. The problem being, once you have dismissed weather as a causal mechanism, their defense is to reiterate weather and climate change and then marginalize you as a "denier." And at this stage of the game, the "circle is a square" mantra has achieved enough traction that indeed, you are "othered" and "fringed" if weather is pushed aside no matter the lack of truth.

Now, this is indeed a complex playbook in action, but wow is it effective from their point of view. The sheer depth of "weather" as a purported reason for things is staggering in even the most cursory of examinations.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 21:15 | 4811648 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

All manner of diseases and illnesses were once blamed on "Demons!"

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:55 | 4809942 U4 eee aaa
U4 eee aaa's picture

Consulting a seasonal gold chart will tell you that gold traditionally drops going into July practically every year.

Trade accordingly

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:59 | 4809952 Seeing Red
Seeing Red's picture

Correlation, casuality ... meh, what's the difference?

/sarc (for those who need it)

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 13:00 | 4809955 foxenburg
foxenburg's picture

well, when you look at it, considering everything else is arse-about-face, back to front, good is bad, less is more, etc.......i would be more concerned if gold bucked this trend by behaving logically. it'll all come out in the wash sooner or later.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 13:07 | 4809986 astoriajoe
astoriajoe's picture

The FT must do yoga, because its tough to stretch so far without it.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 13:13 | 4809999 truth serum
truth serum's picture

Sheeple love paper & they deep down want to be hurt.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 13:14 | 4810004 Lionhearted
Lionhearted's picture

My thought is that they are manipulating the price down so they can purchase TONS of the real stuff, not paper pm at a bargain basement price. Trade your paper gold for real gold. Looks like I will be dollar cost averaging some more PM's this weekend. :)

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 13:20 | 4810027 RaiZH
RaiZH's picture

Wait what? I didn't know Indians held GLD... 

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 13:28 | 4810058 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

Only the ones with tomahawks, not those with turbans.

GLD is for when they run out of EBT, dontcha know. /s

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 13:24 | 4810039 CuriousPasserby
CuriousPasserby's picture

BTFD

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 13:30 | 4810069 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

Just laugh at all this noise.  Real money advocates should be loving all this.  It's a gift. 

Trade as many funny fiat papers for PMs as often you can.

 

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 13:34 | 4810085 russwinter
russwinter's picture

FT is running a deliberate false psy-ops here. 

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