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Still Think The Fed Isn't Fueling Inflation?

Tyler Durden's picture


Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

Just as we can't eat iPods, we can't subsist on official reassurances that the Fed and inflation are both benign.

There is a great divergence between the conventional financial media and the public who goes to the supermarket: the financial media swallows whole the official artifice that inflation is near-zero while J.Q. Public sees his/her grocery costs, health insurance, etc. rising by leaps and bounds.
Many observers finger the Federal Reserve as the villain in the inflation story: it's all well and good to conjure up a few trillion dollars to pass out to your banker buddies, but there are always costs, recognized or not, to every action, and the Fed's credit creation and numerous quantitative easing operations have greatly expanded money supply.
All else being equal, a massive expansion of money typically causes inflation, as the flood of new money starts chasing goods and services that haven't expanded at the same high rate as money supply.
One camp reckons the reason why inflation is muted is that the Fed largesse has flowed into asset bubbles rather than goods and services, and proponents of this view make a good point: since little of the Fed largesse has trickled down to the to bottom 99.5%, it can't exerting much pressure on consumer prices. In effect, the price pressure is all in equities and rentier assets such as real estate rather than in goods and services.
But demand from consumers flush with cash is only one facet of inflation, as this chart of oil and Fed operations from Fine Charts (courtesy of Petr Fiala) reveals. Recall the charts I posted a few days ago showed a tight correlation between the price of oil and food: Why Are Food Prices so High? Because We're Eating Oil.
In other words, if the price of oil goes up, so does the price of food, and everything else that must be transported or that consumes oil in its manufacture.
Now examine this chart of Fed operations and the price of oil: when the Fed is actively expanding credit/money, oil goes up in price.
If little of the Fed's largesse is ending up in consumer's wallets, why should oil go up as the Fed shovels money into financiers' accounts? The answer is somewhat speculative, but there are two avenues of price pressure other than consumer demand:
1. Financial speculation in oil futures contracts, which fuels non-consumer demand
2. Fed credit/money creation weakens the U.S. dollar (USD), pushing the cost of oil priced in USD higher.
This is how the Fed fuels inflation, even when little of its largesse ends up in consumers' wallets. Recall that the price of tradable commodities such as grains and oil are set on the global marketplace. That means that grain harvested in the U.S. and oil extracted in the U.S. is not priced solely by domestic demand: as the Fed has weakened our currency with its various manipulations to favor financiers and bankers, oil and everything that uses oil rises in price in the U.S.
Sellers of grain and oil have a fiduciary obligation to get the best price they can, and in a Fed-engineered weak-dollar environment, the best price is not in domestic markets but in overseas markets.

This chart shows the Fed is indeed fueling inflation by driving oil higher. Official denials are to be expected, as are ginned-up inflation statistics; but just as we can't eat iPods, we also can't subsist on official reassurances that the Fed and inflation are both benign.


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Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:16 | 4809267 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

My Birinyi ruler now says next stop S&P @ 2362.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:17 | 4809273 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

Inflation means growth.

Less money in your pocket means happiness.

Mission accomplished.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:55 | 4809421 max2205
max2205's picture

I am calling spy top today. ..bookmark it bitchezzz

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:54 | 4809663 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

What keeps the Feds from buying the spy and pushing it higher whenever it decides the markets need a boost?

What if they were to identify perhaps 50 or so key stocks that if they are rising, the markets follow suit and rise?

Any idea how many billions of dollars might be necessary to pull this off?  

They can print all the money they want, and then keep the prices in the ranges they want.  Hell, they could even start voting those shares and manipulating the obectives of the companies toward whatever objectives they sought. They could short gold and silver at will, and never even worry about whether the trades made money.  After all, they can print more.

At this point, I don't trust anything to be out of the realm of possibilities.  And it sure makes a lot more sense than any other explanation on what we are seeing at this point.


Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:17 | 4809787 Sonic the porcupine
Sonic the porcupine's picture

Eventually people want physical delivery of gold. At some point supply and demand has to impact price, right, RIGHT???

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:20 | 4809794 Hal n back
Hal n back's picture

Is there is limit as to how far the markets can be inflated. At some point even the insiders say this is crazy and do not want their money chasing this.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:37 | 4809334 BandGap
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Yahoo! Your source for cutting edge economic news.

Tap this, fuckers!

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:19 | 4809523 yogibear
yogibear's picture

How history repeats.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:19 | 4809284 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Another summer of recovery will be fatal.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:36 | 4809331 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture


Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:39 | 4809336 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

Amatures/Amateurs...and European.


USA, USA, USA.  We're number one:

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:21 | 4809800 Hal n back
Hal n back's picture

will those 11,600 and HPQ 40,000 go directly to discouraged?

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:18 | 4809271 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture


Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:17 | 4809272 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I don't see how you get inflaton without wages going up. 

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:23 | 4809292 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture


Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:24 | 4809295 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Businesses raise their prices to cover their costs.  If they sell less volume, so be it.  But they are not going to be operating at a loss.  


And more and more of the bucks floating around out there are not from wages.  They are from student loans, HELOCS, and the government.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:41 | 4809347 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

and, as they sell less volume, they need fewer employees to produce fewer products.  and the cycle kicks into high gear of mass firings -> even less demand -> more firings, etc.....

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:45 | 4809359 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Yes, they will right-size until their profit levels return, or fail trying.

Hey, isn't that how capitalism was supposed to work in the first place?

The Fed just delayed it by 8 years or so at the cost of trillions of dollars and years wasted, too.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:25 | 4809299 intotheblack
intotheblack's picture

Debase the currency? Flood export markets with cheaper USDs that return higher energy costs that in turn support higher food and other prices?

Is inflation only a function of wages?

U.S. Federal government spends more (borrowed) USDs than every U.S. wage earner combined, yo. Also banks create deposits when they issue loans. Wage earners only a small part of the mix in our era of massive central states financed by credit money. 

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:25 | 4809300 marathonman
marathonman's picture

You don't see the US government running trillion dollar deficits for 6 years running which the Fed is monetizing as having the potential to create inflation?  It worked for LBJ, Nixon, and Carter.  It's working for Barack.  Nothing new here.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:26 | 4809301 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

...more money chasing the same amount of raw materials.  It doesn't have to wind up in the average guy's pocket, as long as some of it's being directed to buying stuff that's finite in supply.


The exception of course, is gold, which follows the exact opposite law of supply and demand - that, or alternatively, although the FED and CBs know how to control the price of real commodities via clever manipulation of paper proxies, they selfishly refuse to apply their magic to things like oil, corn, etc... as a favor to the average guy on the street.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:38 | 4809333 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Do the 1% have more buying power than the 99% when it comes to raw materials? Sure the 1% are benefitting while Joe sixpack croaks, but I think that is ultimately deflationary. I am expecting the final response to this to be inflationary, or just an overall death of the currency, and whatever fun that brings. 


Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:43 | 4809355 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Resource competition is global - 3 billion Indians and Chinese are competing to buy that same oil.  But if you want to see inflation in the .01%'ers world, look at the prices they're paying for art (or basketball franchises).

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:52 | 4809398 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

The primary oil website had comments on this the last few days.

The Indians and Chinese . . . if they burn oil at US per capita rates they'll burn, just themselves, 120something million bpd.  That's just them, forgetting rest of the world.

The world's production is sub 90 million bpd. 

So are we going to persuade them to accept (forever) a lesser GDP than the US GDP, or are they going to demand equivalence (and they ARE entitled to that).

So when they are demanding 120 million bpd and only 90 comes out of the ground, plus the rest of the world's 70 mbpd demand -- how does that work, at any price?

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:02 | 4809451 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

The price goes up to ration demand, which of course crushes the economy...  I'm basically with you on oil being the limiting factor, but in the short term what happens is there's more money chasing it, so the price goes up.  All the fucking obfuscation by the banking class aside, you can't just increase the amount of $ in the system and expect no side effects - common sense is completely applicable here.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:05 | 4809466 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

It's pretty popular to say money printing diluted dollars with respect to oil.  But oil hit $147 the summer of 2008 before QE was even in the lexicon.  We'd never even heard of it then.

Oil was sub $20 in the late 90s and 2000, and boomed to 147 before the Fed did any printing at all.

So . . . sorry I don't sign onto oil got pricey because dollars diluted.  Oil got pricey because more and more people who HAVE to have it got born and what came out of the ground flatlined.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:27 | 4809558 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

I think the 147 was an overshoot on speculation, just like the following drop to 35 or whatever was a over-snapback in the opposite direction.  And yes, the demand competition is absolutely driving the price - that was my point about 3 billion Chinese and Indians.  But if you and I both need a barrel of oil, and I have 50$ and you have 50$ to spend on it then the price will be around $50. 


But if I have the ability to print more money, and I just print an extra $20, then I'll outbid you for that, because now I have more money - except that if you also have another $20 (say because you loan me money so I can buy stuff from you, and then take the money I give you and use it to buy oil) then the price is going to be $70.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:17 | 4809507 The wheels on t...
The wheels on the bus are going to fall off's picture

I agree with you guys, i think the lack of energy in the near future could be the major factor in warfare and the economy. We have a exponential population growth, an exponential currency supply all leaning against a finite energy supply. Something is going to give, its totally unsustainable. 

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:43 | 4809356 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

It damned well better be inflationary.  Fed's been trying to do that for 5 years now.

The way you have inflation without wages rising is by with a declining standard of living.  The Fed's cool with that outcome.  Statist government elites seeking dependent subjects (er, voters) are DEFINITELY cool with that.


Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:55 | 4809416 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Wage inflation in the new normal is indexed pensions and indexed govt benefits.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:04 | 4809461 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

I'm willing to bet that, for the majority, wage inflation is not the new normal (that was the old normal), but a declining standard of living definitely is. 

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:35 | 4809329 all-priced-in
all-priced-in's picture

Part of it is --

Government transfer payments + other government bucks being handed out are not included in wages -

So even if wage growth is flat - you still have a flood of cash - SS checks, food stamps  & student loans are some of the big ones - but there are many more.

Plus I think  you have many more people working "off the books" so they can keep their food stamps, unemployment "compensation" and Obama phone.

It use to be people worked off the books to avoid paying taxes - now they do it to keep their welfare free shit benefits.





Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:54 | 4809414 Gaius Frakkin' ...
Gaius Frakkin' Baltar's picture

What are we waiting for then? Let's eliminate all jobs and let everyone print their own money.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:56 | 4809428 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

That would be considered hyper inflation when that happens ...

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 00:33 | 4811995 cape_royds
cape_royds's picture

Answer: debt.

Look at post-secondary students. They don't make much money, but their tuition costs have soared. Conclusion: you don't need rising wages to cause higher prices. Credit expansion can do the job.

Ask yourself: have you ever seen an economy in which it's so easy to borrow, but so hard to earn?

That's why we get the spectacle today of stagnant wages and rising prices.

We don't have hyperinflation. We have steady, grinding, relentless inflation. It's not the inflation that makes you push a wheelbarrow. It's the sort of inflation that quietly eats your grandchildren.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:18 | 4809274 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

So long as there are people looking to improve their quality of life, there will always be demand for calories.  Oil remains one of the most concentrated forms of calories.  With 7+ billion, and growing, there will be plenty of demand, regardless of what a bunch of useless paper-pushers at the Fed do.

Want energy demand to drop?  Take the population back under a billion.

Oh wait...

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:57 | 4809429 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Yup, good call LoPdood.

The bad news is this is the most obvious, most effective and most likely way it happens.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:02 | 4809703 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

That would be disease and starvation.  Barring a nuclear war, war in and of itself doesn't kill people fast enough.  That's not to say that war couldn't kick off disease and starvation, but famine is how you kill off large chunks of the population.  Or, rather, how nature will kill a bunch of us, so long as no oil substitute is found and we don't nuke ourselves off of the planet.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:18 | 4809281 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

want to see what an orchestrated operation to take down the phony paper price of Silver looks like??

as has been the case for 5 years...

2 hours before the open of trading in london...

the open in london...

the open in NY on the Crimex..

the last hours of trade goin into the close iin london...

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:24 | 4809296 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Start thinking in ounces, not fiat.

You are tearing yourself up daily here, man, take it easy or sell.

If you can't you will nver live to sae this charade over.Stress kills.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:32 | 4809318 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

I'll second that.  After taking a company public I have seen stress kill many.

When they hammer the PMs, just say thank you as it allows you to physically save some of your purchasing power at a lower cost.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:34 | 4809326 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

I will second your second. It is like buying fire/all perils insurance near Mt. St. Helens in the 70s. 

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:41 | 4809343 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

hey guys thanks but just pointing out the fraud - albeit daily...

my last 500oz order arrives sometime today...

im watching to see how low they take the phony paper price b4 hitting Apmex up again next week...


Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:29 | 4809309 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Huh, and here's me with a few bucks in my pocket - what to do, what to do...  Kidding of course, I expect the price to fall quite a bit more before they wrap this downleg up.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:40 | 4809340 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

They will run out of customer assets to ship out eventually.  They have to move the price down because of all of the bullish derivative bets they are on the unhedged short side of.  The more bullish people are, the more they have to move the price down.  That is what I learned from the Barclay's post mortem.  They will shed customer assets and take trading losses to stop their derivatives from hemorrhaging.  It is a gift to the rest of us.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 16:11 | 4810725 SDShack
SDShack's picture

Derivatives and their stepchildren CDS only come into play if the rule of law is followed. The rule of law doesn't exist anymore. When the shit is about to hit the fan, the law is compromised. Derivatives and CDS didn't take out AIG. Derivatives and CDS didn't take out Greece, or Cyprus or any of the PIIGS. Derivatives and CDS didn't take out GM or Chrysler. Derivaties and CDS are just another con man shell game. TPTB will ALWAYS be bailed out because of TBTF. They have engineered the system this way. Forget derivatives and CDS. They have NEVER been triggered, even though they should have had the rule of law been followed. The rule of law is dead. Derivatives and CDS are just a tool of TBTB to insure TBTF and tax payer funded bailouts. History has proven this.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:20 | 4809282 foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

Holy Fuck I went to Walmart yesterday and spent 189.00 on nothing. Fuck you Mr. Yellin.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:33 | 4809320 A82EBA
A82EBA's picture

some have an EBT card that adjusts for inflation

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:33 | 4809324 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

does the card get bigger?

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:16 | 4809505 1stepcloser
1stepcloser's picture

no only thier asses

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:33 | 4809322 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

weird he? 10 years ago, I could fill a cart with 25 euro's now it costs me 150 euro's and the cart isn't that full anymore.
it's more like a full basket which I use to load it more easy in my car...

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:11 | 4809750 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

I killed an elk in December and have a fairly large garden.  Just put about 100 squash seeds in the ground yesterday.  My first planting of dent/flint corn is already over knee high, and the pole beans are growing fast.  When the dry bush beans start with their bean pods, melons go into the bed, and when the beets are done, sweet corn goes in. I decided that I didn't have enough green chile, so I planted another ~120 ft2 yesterday too. 


Fuck Walmart.  The only thing it is good for is when they have ammo.  Their food is shit.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:22 | 4809806 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

How's you water holding out? Our well seems fine so far but it is only rainwater fed, no underground aquifer. We are scaling down our irrigation to minimal for our crops, fruit trees and our chicken grazing area. Our garden looks very promising too. We plant things complementary to our neighbors and trade. Got an additional 15 heritage meat chickens and 9 turkeys just out of the brooder. 15 pheasants come in a few days ( someone is paying me a premium to raise them... My first attempt!)

I agree. Fuck walmart. The last time I went in there was a year ago to get a quart Pyrex measuring container which broke after 25 years.They didn't carry Pyrex! The shitty thing I got was absolutely worthless. Never again will I partake of the people of Walmart. The word food should be in quotations if it came from there.


Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:30 | 4809842 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

I can literally hit the water table with a shovel where I am, even after years of a pretty severe drought.  Give me a bucket and a few sticks and I'll manage.  Last year was the first year we hit the average (maybe a little above) precipitation in years.  Problem is, we got it all at once.  We average 9"/yr, and we had one storm that dropped 2.5" in an hour or less.  Then we had another that dropped somewhere around 2" in a day.  That's half of our annual precip that occurred during two days, LOL.  However, El Nino typically means wet years for me, so this year may be wet if it actually gets going strong.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 14:29 | 4810360 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

You are very fortunate. We are blessed with an absolutely perfect situation for growing and raising animals except for water. Without it we are toast. One reason we are holding the working 100 acre farm in Washington even with the climate. It is more than enough productive for the 2 of us. A good part of it is ponderosa pine so we can log if necessary. My mother in law logs it every ten years and gets around 40-65k. Deer are everywhere so a good secondary food source. It's our plan B.


Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:26 | 4809302 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

Just wait to see how our energy costs will DROP when they start exporting it to countries who will pay 50% more for it

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:32 | 4809317 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Outside the USD.

I hear there are a lot flights tooing ,and froing around the Gulf right now.

PTB going places they don't normally.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:34 | 4809327 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

and soon water will also become a export product.
My waterbill is up 300% in the last 8 years.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:14 | 4809770 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Drop?  We don't have enough for ourselves, unless you maybe count coal.  We import more than just oil.  We imported natural gas last year.  To make that work, we'll have to import more sources of energy so that we may export them.  If there is any drop domestically, it is simply because we are acting as a middle man and skimming off of the top.  There's only so long that can last.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:27 | 4809304 BrosephStiglitz
BrosephStiglitz's picture

But.. Thomas Piketty says we should tax rich people and give it to the poor.  That would fix everything, right? ...right?

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:28 | 4809307 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

The only thing not inflating are inflation hedges like PMs. Looks like another run for $1180 this summer. Oh joy.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:33 | 4809319 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Hope so. I am a buyer there.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:29 | 4809308 p00k1e
p00k1e's picture

So was it a soft landing? 

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:31 | 4809312 A82EBA
A82EBA's picture

Fed largesse has flowed into asset bubbles

it sure aint flowin into my silver

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:31 | 4809314 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture


let's see... gold and silver? dirtcheap
bonds... low rates... weird... normally gold and silver do very well on low rates... but hey.... strong economy and all...
economy is shrinking so that's deflation
money printing like helll... should cause inflation...


Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:17 | 4809506 yogibear
yogibear's picture

That's a Krugman solution. Go to 500 billion/month. No big deal tp raise the deficit from 17.x to 24.

Print until the US dollar crashes.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:31 | 4809316 Marley
Marley's picture

Bombs away on the PM's this morning.  That's....gotta.....hurt!

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:35 | 4809330 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

my fault... I went long yesterday on gold and silver...

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:39 | 4809339 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Like I said in an earlier post. We know that the fed is fueling inflation, but the retared fucking sheep are buying into the fact that it's all due to some other exogenous event. They are to stupid to comprehend the money printing/oil connection.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:24 | 4809818 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Actually, when you look at the total costs for producing a barrel of oil, including drilling, well casing, salaries, etc... plus R&D, taxes, paying shareholders, etc... the price of oil should be higher if we want to maintain current US production rates.  Either that, or the business model needs to change, but that's not going to happen in today's economy.  If anything oil is being manipulated DOWN.

Nearly half of the industry needs more than $120/bb. The 4th quartile, where most US E&Ps cluster, needs $130/bbl or more.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:41 | 4809344 Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

Sorry, OT but very important:

Habersham County Sheriff’s Department (Georgia)
Sheriff Joey Terrell
Phone: 706-754-6666

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:10 | 4809396 TalkToLind
TalkToLind's picture

This is what happens when you give society's rejects a badge, military fatigues, combat boots, AR-style rifles, flak jackets, night vision goggles, grenades, tanks...

They think they can play military...and you, the American public (and babies in cribs) are the enemy.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:01 | 4809446 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Fuckers. Sooner or later people have to put these bastards down.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:18 | 4809510 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Go long boiled rope.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:17 | 4809497 Cthonic
Cthonic's picture

Thanks, another name for the black book o' fascist tools.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:55 | 4809682 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"Still Think The Fed Isn't Fueling Inflation?"


Inflation fuels deflation.  100% of bubbles burst and deflate.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!