UMich Confidence Misses; Current Conditions Lowest In 6 Months

Tyler Durden's picture


May's preliminary UMich confidence print of 81.8 was the biggest miss to expectations in 8 years. In the two weeks since then, the 'economists' have ratcheted back their exuberance to an expectation of 82.5... and still it missed at 81.9. So two weeks of exuberant equity markets have done nothing to soothe the consumer. The Current conditions sub-index tumbled to its lowest since Nov 2013 (and the outlook dropped also). Stock pushers are going to need higher highs if the dream of multiple expansion is to live on....So just as reminder, against the initial expectations, May's consumer confidence missed by the most in 8 years.




Of course - as we have noted previously - - confidence is the key number for continued exuberance in hope-fueled multiple-expansion...

But, it's all about confidence... investors will not be willing to pay increasing multiples unless they are confident that the future streams of earnings are sustainable and forecastable... And simply put, the current levels of Consumer Sentiment need to almost double for the US equity market to approach historical multiple valuation levels...



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Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:05 | 4809239 Millivanilli
Millivanilli's picture

All part of the recovery cycle. Cough.  

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:05 | 4809243 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Last month my snap card bought me six bags of groceries and a full tank of gas. This month it buys me a happy meal and bus fair. Hope and change bitchez!

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:10 | 4809253 unplugged
unplugged's picture

I thought those were for buying stawks. (?)

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:18 | 4809277 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture
Borrowers Tap Their Homes at a Hot Clip


A rebound in house prices and near-record-low interest rates are prompting homeowners to borrow against their properties, marking the return of a practice that was all the rage before the financial crisis.


It's all BooooYaaaaa!

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:56 | 4809427 caShOnlY
caShOnlY's picture

Borrowers Tap Their Homes at a Hot Clip

is this the hedge funds and investment banks getting their money back?

sad day when the only good news is derived from even more debt.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:14 | 4809457 caShOnlY
caShOnlY's picture

from Yahoo article:

"Ian Feldberg planned to open a $200,000 Heloc this week with Belmont Savings Bank to help pay his son's college tuition. The medical-device scientist purchased his home in Sudbury, Mass. for a little over $1 million in 2004, and estimates that its value dipped as low as $800,000 during the financial crisis. However, after applying for the line of credit, he found that its value had completely recovered."

Good investment, Ian.  You bought yourself a 1 million dollar house, tapped yourself out and now need to borrow from your house to pay for your son's education?  and when home values decline once again you can "walk away" because you feel you shouldn't have to pay for a house that is "underwater".  NICE!!

Navy Federal Credit Union, the largest credit union in the U.S. with more than $58 billion in assets, is moving aggressively, letting borrowers withdraw up to 95% of the value of their homes with Helocs, said Richard Morris, vice president of investor relations and equity lending.

Now that says it all, doesn't it? 95% fo the value of the home which, by the way, has been artificially inflated.  Dick Morris is a "visionary" who, after his credit union collapses and it's members are shafted, will walk with a multi million golden parachute.

All that america has left is "debt money" moar, moAR MOAR!!!!.  This appears to be a last ditch effort to avoid the coming collap....col.... errr, sorry have to sugar coat it...... "RESET".

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:29 | 4809567 FuzzyDunlop21
FuzzyDunlop21's picture

But how much booze and how many strippers can it buy you?

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:06 | 4809244 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

Well, it has kept going up no matter what...and when they need a little extra fuel they find an endless supply of shorts to squeeze for the next leg up


So, next time you think, "This is it!!" and run headlong into triple inverse ETFs, WAIT.  Make the market confirm that it has indeed reversed and keep your eyes peeled for telltale BOTTOMING TAILS.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:09 | 4809252 unplugged
unplugged's picture

That society implicitly accepts the term "consumer" just shows you how much the controllers have brainwashed the masses into cattle grazing - not that there was any doubt.  If fact, cattle are smarter - they don't take out loans to graze.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:11 | 4809255 Millivanilli
Millivanilli's picture



However if the cows had a central bank, they'd probably take out grass lines of credit...

Then they'd be bundled into tranches based of risk with high returns attached to the least likely to pay back the grass.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:14 | 4809262 unplugged
unplugged's picture

and with their newfound "wealth" some would get teat-jobs

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:21 | 4809290 Millivanilli
Millivanilli's picture

You've got a children's book in the making!


Millivanilli- it is all fake.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:15 | 4809256 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Confidence is "down": Maybe the Sheeple aren't so stupid afterall.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:33 | 4809321 unplugged
unplugged's picture

don't underestimate them - they are far more stupid than you can imagine - beam me up Scotty

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:48 | 4809378 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

What would you expect. The survey is from Michigan. It's tainted by data from Detroit!

What we need is a survey from a good, solid blue state, say Hawaii or California. Maybe just limit it to San Fran or Palo Alto or inside the beltway ( minus the brown folks, of course).

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 11:18 | 4809514 q99x2
q99x2's picture

The stock market is a leading indicator. FED's preparing to kill us.

Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:15 | 4809772 JJdog
JJdog's picture

Bullish! that means the sentiment will pop next month! and the reason it's lowest in 6 months is because the weather. usually when it's warm out and sunny, people get sad, go ask Yellen, she will confrim this. 

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