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"MOVE Over" Warns BofAML; Treasury Yields Set To Move Higher
US Treasury yields are on the verge of basing and resuming their long term bear trends, warns BofAML's MacNeil Curry, as Treasury volatility (MOVE Index) appears poised for a reversal higher...
Via BofAML's MacNeil Curry,
Treasury yields poised to base
US Treasury yields are on the verge of basing and resuming their long term bear trends. While we need to see a 10yr yield close above 2.568% to confirm, we reiterate our comment: THE LONG-TERM BEAR TREND IS POISED TO EMERGE FROM HIBERNATION. While such a turn would be supportive of our bullish US $ view against the likes of € and CHF (we are long the US $ against both) , it should also help push many $/EMFX pairs higher as well. The reason being is that Treasury volatility is also poised for a significant turn to the topside. Indeed, a turn higher in US yields should be the catalyst for such a turn in vol. In such an environment, $/ZAR is particularly well placed to benefit as it has just resumed its long term bull trend.
Chart of the week: 10yr Treasury yields at the basing zone
US 10yr Treasury yields have reached the 2.420%/2.346% basing zone. From this zone we look for a base and resumption of the long term bear trend, which should ultimately take yields to new 2014 highs. A break of the 2.568% old Feb-4 lows confirms the turn in trend. Also, keep an eye on 5yr yields. They are closest to basing, with a closing break of 1.556% confirming.
Treasury volatility is set to turn
Not only are Treasury yields set to turn higher, but so is Treasury volatility. Indeed, a turn in yields could prove to be the catalyst for a higher in Treasury volatility. Looking at the MOVE Index, a closing break above 60bps (Ending Diagonal Triangle resistance) would confirm a turn higher, targeting 80bps and likely beyond...
[ZH: Of course - we have one question... when does the US investing public (and its propagandizing media channels) start to call the US Treasury the "widow-maker" trade? Just like being short Japanese bonds has been a loser for 2 decades...? We presume "it's different this time"...]
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UH>OOGAHH! Dive...Dive! ( This was just a practice drill.)
BoA mixing the "fruit punch" on Sunday?
ZH: We presume "it's different this time"
One thing, among others;
We have burned more Petroleum since than ever before in history...
I think that counts as "different".
Am I to assume the recent downward movement in yields was a purposeful smash by major players. Or was that all coincidence?
In this new normal I wouldn't be surprised to see bond prices moving higher AS bond yields move higher. It's NOT an impossibility you know.... 1 + 1 does not equal 2.
Does the term LIQUIDITY CRISIS mean anything to you mooks!?
Cause that's the abyss we're heading for when the next "Lehman" hits soon.
And the Fed can't do a thing about it this time cause they're tapped out too!
So yes yields will spike a lot higher soon!
They put crack in their punch!
Chart pr0n, wood and boollish downwedgies with corresponding divergence. From a TnA perspective I agree with this analysis 100%.
Is Putin ready to unveil explosive evidence of a US government cover up on 9/11? http://intellihub.com/putin-ready-unveil-explosive-evidence-us-governmen... via @Prismatic
MOSCOW, RUSSIA — Multiple sources have recently reported that Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has threatened to release satellite imagery that proves beyond a reasonable doubt that the US government was guilty of a coverup on 9/11, and possibly a deeper conspiracy.
It is important to mention that these reports are preliminary and have not yet been confirmed, and this would be a reversal of Putin’s previous stance.
Near the 10th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks Putin made a public statement saying that he did not believe that the US government was guilty of a conspiracy on 9/11.
“To imagine that US intelligence services did it deliberately, with their own hands, is complete nonsense. Only people who do not understand the workings of security agencies can say that. It would be impossible to conceal it.” Putin said at the Seliger 2011 youth forum.
It is very possible that Putin was merely taking that stance because the two countries were allied at the time.
Now with tensions rising between the two governments over the crisis in Ukraine, it is possible that Putin is seeking to use this information as leverage in the propaganda war.
The story stems from the testimony of a retired FXX agent specializing in Israeli counter intel, who claims that Putin is preparing to release this information.
Interesting... If Putin did that then he would have some serious balls!
And what does this really gain him?
I think everyone that believes it was an inside job is already on the train which left the station a long time ago. The few that might have their minds changed will make little difference.
Anyway, it may get traction outside the US, but inside it will be ignored or they will come up with some other distraction for the US boobus.
I'm sure if it does make headwinds inside the US they'll just excoriate the story like they did when Putin liberated Crimea.
What exactly does that have to do with Treasury yields?
Destroy the image and break the tyrant. More and more people are growing sick of the war on terror but subconsciously in their minds they actually approve of it because they believe the official 911 narrative. Destroy the narrative and everything done in the name of 911 will be openly questioned; at least outside of America.
Personally I think it will make little difference in the US, even if first Russia and other major nations come out and say it was a false flag attack. Americans will be the last ones to see the deception. And even then many of them still will not believe it.
Better still. If Putin can produce OBL's remains from Tora Bora, we could finally stop the war on terrorism tyranny.
So what? At this point, what difference does it make. For real!
suckers... yields will continuously sink lower as real inflation rises higher. It is written, let it be done. The definition of fiat.
Is there any way we can engineer plunging general stocks, higher interest rates, soaring price inflation, rising bond yields, soaring gold prices and fast-rising unemployment all at the same time?
That's what I want, because it would be a TRUE reflection of reality on the ground.
I am pretty sure that there would not be a need to do things by decree or fiat if reality wasn't good enough for those with the ability to impose their will over said reality.
Try the '70's... that's what we had, big time.
All enabled by unprecedented (at that time) monetary expansion and skyrocketing energy costs (oil embargo)
The printing this time has been done, already.
Vlad says pay me in gold, then it's a fiat accompli.
On the cusp.
Otherwise a liquidity trap
With one alternative scenario .... the ne==energy shock is soooo massive that the global economy drops like a rock.
Then rates remain low ..... people worry about return of money rather than return on money...
BAC? LOL! This forecast is pure bullshit propaganda for strip-mining client accounts. I'll stay long bonds, for now.
Uh, if that happens the the DJIASPXNASDAQR2K, etc will crash Then the FED will have to buy more Treasuries, probably corporate paper, and preferreds to keep the market flying high. Thus BoAML is full of shit. Yields will remain down because it is a QE party.
And one listens to the Curried MacNeil because...?
The Bernank himself said that rates will remain low until he is dead.
If he expects to live to a ripe old age, he could be sadly mistaken.
Of course he could drop dead tomorrow but I doubt anything would change.
Its definitely gonna be difficult for anyone to unwind all the damage he's inflicted on the American taxpayer with his actions at the FED.
And for that he can safely say that rates will remain low until well after he's passed on.
And when has Bernanke ever been right about ANYTHING?
He said he was gonna print and keep rates low.
And he did.
Geez, knukles, telling people what you are gonna do , isn't exactly the same as being right about what the economy or markets may do.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QpD64GUoXw
Pretty sure BoA was predicting this about 20 bps ago.
BAC is hoping for a 300k plus frauded NFP headline Friday so they can get themselves some UST's with a slightly higher yield before they start dropping again.
Bitchez are always ahead of the curve on the "money"(fiat) printing. It is written somewhere ...at the FED?
Do not short treasury bonds yet!!!!!!!!!!!!
There are more bodies in the ditch from this supposed no-brainer trade.... It will not work!
10 year is going to 2% or maybe below before everybody captiulates...
For a trade a guy could catch a bounce in rates, be about as profitable as shorting the ES over the last couple of years...
You better be dam good if you are going to try this one. Let the big boys throw away their money and keep iscking up the penny's being long bonds.
This is a break down setup, not a double bottom!!!!!
Do not let them sucker you into taking the other side of the good trade..
Good luck trading....
...so this means "The Recovery"(TM) is suddenly back on...?
I thought they were all supposed to be terrified of a Deflationary Depression...
"We" are terrified by a deflationary depression. People capitalizing ahead of a money printing curve is deflationary for those of us that are behind that curve of money printing.
Precisely. The 10y JGB is yielding 0.58% right now. Why the fuck can't the US 10y ever approach that yield?
Good luck to everyone shorting the US 10y!
To add, look at JGB's for the last decade.
Granted, I'm short a tiny amount T's right now for insurance, while BofA, who's as credible as a guy at Yawkey hawking bleachers, hasn't convinced me to get crazy.
Let me get this right....
BofA, one of the largest participants in screwing the public via CDO's by lying to the public via ratings agencies and pushing liar loans to any moron with a pulse, whom purpetrated 4ClosureFraud, whom currently has a vested proprietary trade business that effectively daytrades against those of us Muppets this story is directed at...is telling us to sell treasuries?
I'm already short treasuries, uh oh, maybe it's time to cover.
Didn't BofA say exacly the same thing last week? That didn't work out so good.
Yes. Nope, it didn't.
And nothing else macro wise or manipulation wise, has changed.
They're about to learn how to spell Liquidity Trap.
Bond yields dropping for the rest of this year. Believe it.
Wow BofA must be losing their asses on this one....they keep reprinting this same article.
what happened to all the ZH articles about how the yeild would pass 3% and doom US equties..
MOVE OVER BofAML! Treasury yields proclaim "The End is Near"!
I mean...seriously?..."the house as ATM" Bank?
Again?
Has the ink even dried from the last time around, yet?
The red ink sure ain't.....
Doesn't matter. Stock market is going up.
... all time highs... ever....
good luck with that
Still do not get why all the focus on US treasuries when so many other countries are even MORE overvalued.
Long term bear trend? Ummmmm...what? I'm confused. When have US treasury yields been in a bear trend? You mean moving lower? Yes, is that bearish?