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Epic Fudge Fail: ISM Re-Releases May Data, Says Applied Wrong Seasonal Factor, Boosts Headline Print To 56
One can't make this up.
Remember when the ISM' Holcombe explicitly said moments ago in its 10 am release that "The May PMI registered 53.2 percent, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points from April's reading of 54.9 percent" Turns out he lied, and moments after the ISM released its data, it "realized" it had used a wrong seasonal adjustment factor. Wait: one applies seasonal adjustments to survey data? Like for example when you responded "no" to whether orders are picking up, you really meant "yes" when adjusted for the seasons.
We can only imagine that the ISM received a very unpleasasnt phone call.
From Bloomberg:
- ISM CORRECTS MAY FACTORY INDEX TO 56 AFTER ADJUSTMENT ERROR
- ISM INITIALLY REPORTED U.S. MAY FACTORY GAUGE FELL TO 53.2
- S&P 500 ERASES LOSS AFTER ISM CORRECTS FACTORY DATA
In other words, blame the complete data revision on... warmer weather.
And just like that, we have even more confirmation that all the "economic data" is nothing but Garbage In, Garbage Out.
Here is the before garbage, and after garbage:
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So release the not seasonally adjusted data and lets see the real deal...
Exactly. Seasonally adjusted means that I can make this fucker say anything I want. Lick my ass ISM.
I believe they call that "harmonizing the data" in polite circles. Goal-seeked, massaged or just flat-out rigged here in the cheap seats.
Yep. When in doubt go with AEN Methodology. (Anally Extracted Numericals).
Gotta love Delusional Justification.
Are we there yet?
ISM = Institute of Statistical Manipulation
I hear they traded five Taliban to get the numbers revised.
5 Top Taliban Commanders for one deserter.
Obviously, the ObowelMovement wanted to free some of his terrorist Muzzie kin.
Every good statistician knows that one must modify SURVEY results according to the season, because PEOPLE give different answers to the same question depending on how cold they are, or if they're drunk, or if they got laid last night, etc.
This is why the stats guys make so much money. Its really hard to get this exactly correct.!
I'd hate to be the one that takes the fall for this... they'll probably get a consultant position making 500k/year. Poor bastard!
Maybe its time for a few statisticians to join their bankster allies plummeting out of highrise office windows.
"Wait a second, dad, ...it wasn't a D minus I got in math...it's an A+....I made a mistake using the wrong calucator numbers.........Honest."
Seasonal factor....heh heh heh
Did someone fuck-up and not run the numbers past the right eyeballs ?
No, the first release is to take the premium out of the call options. The second revised anally adjusted release is to lock in the guaranteed profits for the HFT shops.
This is all a big setup for the 325k NFP report Friday followed closely by a 25 bil cut in QE next month in an attempt to stave off a collapse in yields.
Just imagine the amount of money that was made today by the cronies that were "in" on the phony data switcheroo! Congressional investigation? Never happen.
With the advent of newer technology, I dont know how they could fuck up a simple calculation as such. I guess they didnt bother to verify for accuracy either.
finding the right column in a spreadsheet can be a biatch
They asked experts to massage the data, to meet requirements
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
duplicate
Well I see that they have doubled down on stupid. Good to know.
Can't wait till the new "carbon" rules hit the economy. That outta be good for a boost.
And to think, this global warming was almost letting me grow some bananas. <sigh>
pods
The third and final question... what is your favorite color?
Red. No, BLUE! AAAaaaaaaa!!!
>>carbon rules
the modern version of 'all the wood in the royal forest belongs to the king'... no heat for the peasants...
meanwhile the figurehead queen proposes a law to force owners to allow fracking on private land:
http://rt.com/news/162896-queen-fracking-pensions-speech/
so it looks like this whole freedom charade thing is just about over... back to open brutality on the old human farm.
WTF is this, 1776!?
you just need the new GMO, seasonally adjusted, seeds. I hear they are growing these bannas in alaska this summer.
We're going to infinity+1, wait a minute, forgot the other seasonal adjustment, make that infinity+4. It's all good. We really do know what we're doing even though we never demonstrate it.
- The Gov Beast
The pen is indeed mightier than the sword.
I voted no for the seansonal adjustment before I voted yes.
"Tell me why I don't like Mondays....."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8yteMugRAc0
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-02/ism-manufacturing-tumbles-weather-bounce-over
It's a good Monday
Bastille Day is on a Monday this year.
fukkin liars...they will go to any length to manipulate the reality...
you say tomatoe...
i say tomato...
lets call the whole thing off...
banana republic....
enjoy.
So they revised the already revised fake data.
Ok noted.
move along now and DONT buy gold
yes, yes...
me no buy real money...
thank you comrade kilguy...
Defer your gold buying until end of June. Then buy with both hands and back up the truck.
Got to align your buying strategy with the shorting pattern of the banksters.
dollar cost averaging.
like clockwork via the attack times and the data releases...
fucking MoneyChangers r so predictable.
They don't even care to hide the in your face propoganda any longer as long as the robots are happy life is good.
I used to think that we were progressing towards a real life matrix.
Sadly, I have come to realize that we have been there for some time.
pods
A vision of a boot stomping on the face of humanity forever comes to mind.
The only entertainment I get from this any more is trying to imagine how it actually went down behind the scenes. Elites blowing their stacks, uncomfortable phone calls being made, etc. Here's how I imagine this one went down:
10:30am, a phone rings....
"Hello, Institute for Supply Management"
"That number sucks, change it. NOW!"
"Yes, Madame Chairwoman, we'll change it right away. Any particular excuse you want given?"
"Do I look like I give a f**k? Just change that f***er, NOW!"
"Yes, Madame Chairwoman."
<click>
Banana fucking republic. No if's, and's or but's about it.
All good. all good. nothing to see here. come on people, place your bets.
i know we must have an agency for Economic Marketing Policy, but do we have an agency for Marketing Economic Policy?
told ya, now they are mannipluating this shit. Seasonal adjustment to a survey? aren't they supposed ot be real time?
Buy!
Buy!
Buy!
Buy!
Tomorrow is Tuesday, seasonally adjusted of course.
Joseph A LaVorgna is never wrong. Let this be a lesson.
Hand gun sales still booming.
http://money.cnn.com/2014/06/02/news/companies/handgun-sales/index.html?...
Like I've been saying for several years now: guns, ammo, lotto scratch off tickets and some high end cars are about the only things selling well.
Drugs and alcohol are doing pretty damn good also..
That's like saying drugs and drugs are doing pretty damn good also.
This is how bad things are ... the US can't even get its fake data right.... At least the chinese do it smoothly
What if, just what if, someone knew the number was supposed to be 56 and then released the 53 number, bought the dip, and is selling after the "revision." Let's prosecute a pro golfer first and not Corzine or anyone else in the govmint.
I guess they don't have any actual good news to release in order to induce the whipsaw. Normally it seems like you get two different reports that contradict each other. Talk about lazy.
If anyone complains about any banana republic ever again...
A whole new level.
The Plantain republic.
Yield on the 10yr just figured out what is going on....
The 10 yr yield was up 4 bps last night before any of these reports released.
There is a story that the UK is going to cut pensions and this hit Gilts, dragging all other bonds with it.
And btw, would not the seasonal adjustment be for colder weather, so it's removal should have lowered the result, not raised it?
You are assuming that they have only 1 seasonal adjustment factor. They have seasonal adjustments for all seasons. I think this one was th "Start of Hurricane Season Adjustment" which factors in panic buying from coastal sheeple.
Algo pre-adjusted for Jean-Claude Junckering... #winning.
People, the level of outright bullshit is astonishing. the ISM is a survey and there is no mention whatsoever about seasonal adjustments. They aren't even bothering to hide the fact that they are changing the data now to accomodate the bullish meme.
It's a survey up until they don't like the responses and then they call in the plunge protection team's twin, the seasonal adjustment team.
That's close to the truth, actually. Even though this is a survey, they DO apply seasonal adjustments. For example, when someone says conditions are "worse than expected" there are "why?" follow up questions. Suppose someone then says, for example: "Because of crappy weather." Under Markit's methodology, the response would be "seaonally adjusted" upward.
ISM usually uses X-12, but maybe they use Markit's approach when convenient? Wouldn't surprise me in the least.
I don't think anybody actually believes any of these stats, belief does not form part of the algorithm calculation.
Tyler, get it right, you can't make this SHIT up.....
"Epic fail"; get a life.
Why even pay attention to these numbers anymore?...
ALL lies...
ALL the time.
Feels like 1984, adjust the past and present numbers and history to anything you want.. We are heading to very bad place at full speed ahead..
The show must go on!
So is the seasonal adjustments to handle some people having the winter blahs? The snow was so deep some managers couldn't get their e-mails?
John Williams has been keeping independent estimates (adjusting for changes in Gov. methodology) for inflation, unemployment, and growth at shadowstats.com. Maybe it has come to the point that an independent private entity (Heritage, American Enterprise Institute, CATO...?) start keeping additional monthly stats as an alternative to increasingly suspect BLS, Census, and Treasury data.
A country which exists on manipulated statistics and rigged markets combined with an oppressive security apparatus, very Soviet indeed!
from a miss to a beat...in a couple of hours?
nope...I got nothing.
just, wow, the bullshit, it's endless, it just never stops.
that's it, just lies, lies and more lies, all day everyday.
Call me crazy but I am not sure these numbers even warrant reporting anymore. Let's just call the numbers "between 50 and 60 all year" and be done with it...they exist for HFT purposes only.
That's probably why they do this - those in the know get short at the open, ride the little sell wave down, close out and switch long before the revision. Pretty sweet deal if you're on the 'advance notice' list.
LOL, they get the market reaction and quickly adjust to a more favorable number. Real-time adjust to favorable outcome.
Rigged markets on steroids.
Is this the change we can believe in?
Besides this pissing me off, I have an uppity neighbor who is concerned that my tobacco plants, watermelon and squash won't "look good" in the front yard. Like it's his fucking yard. Asshole. Meanwhile, he's spending thousands decorating and fixing up his house to impress the in-laws on the 4th of July.
Doesn't he realize that I'm trying to lower property values, not raise them? Some people - like him - deserve the ass-raping they get from the assessor's office.
I want out, and I want out now.
Yep, they changed and goosed up the numbers in print for both Final Manufacturing PMI reported at 9:45 and the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10:00 EST on Forexfactory.
Would never have gone back to check what I had already read. Wow, you really can't trust what you read. Ever.
The collapse of this economy sure has been AWESOMELY entertaining!
Obuthead saw it on CNN and was outraged.
With his pen and phone mighty mouse was here to save the day.
This is all going to end violently somehow
Its a survey its a survey its a survey its a survey and when you can adjust and revise a survey what's the point of it anyways. We all know that everything is rigged. However when they can't even input the "seasonal adjustment" to a survey, we are in big trouble. The sure incompetence is truly underwhelming.
should be good for new high?
The ministry of truth, hard at work.
The humorous part is how these number games still get a rise out of the folks here at ZH. We know Lucy will pull the ball as we kick it but we STILL act surprised.
This is how it will go up til the end.
Those farging bastages.
icehole corksuckers
You shouldn't apply wrong seasonal factors. My mother applied wrong seasonal factors once. ONCE.
Next month they will drop the reference to a "survey" and just release the "adjusted number."
I think one just needs to BTF story and ride the fuckers coat tails because the blatent theft shifting wealth from the lower/middle class to the elite is epic and will not stop until the rest of the world calls time on this FUCKING ponzi scheme which most likely will need several more months to play out. I wish they would just come out and say everyone on board, we are going to suck this fucker dry. When the SHTH, every man for himself.
Great post over @ sakar on the Russian strategy ,and timeline for the endgame.
It totally agrees with my timeline but is far better written than I could achieve.
Somebody has thought this out long ago, and is working their plan.
It will not be a merry Christmas for the US.
This is like the US administration telling it's citizens "Santa Claus doesn't exist" - might as well tell them "Oh, by the way, the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy neither".
In other words, no need to beat furthur around the bush in the future, all upcoming election results etc. can be announced in the shape of "Seasonally adjusted so-and-so won the election/the amount of gold and silver in the COMEX vaults is XYZ".
Not that they haven't been doing it already, so just be open about it.
Must get numbers up, must stop QE, must normalize interest rates, must keep stawks going up...Eazy Peazy
Money on the side lines bitchez.
Winning.
These guys are fucking pinheads - I mean, how hard can it be to remember 'just make the numbers better every month'.
heads they win, tails you lose
Baltic Dry print 934 on June 2nd, 2014 - unmanipulated data
Why do the adjustments only make it go up?
This only means the government is hyper-sensitive and worried about anything that's negative.
A pin-trigger market that's closely being watched.
Second correction coming soon!! Down to 55.4 from 56
Source: ForexLive.com
This is pure fascism!!!
How is any investor to believe any data release in the current era? These reports are clearly disingenuous and serve only to keep the train on the tracks. This feels like China. If the data sucks, fudge it so it fits the narrative of gumdrops and purple unicorns for Reserve and the O admin.
I was thinking I didn't get laid last night, but seasonally adjusted, I did! I like this new math!
These are NOT the Droids you're looking for!
The Ministry of Plenty concerns itself with starvation. The contradiction is not accidental, nor does it result from from ordinary hypocrisy: it is a deliberate exercise in Doublethink” GO 1984
'Tis the season for political bullshit