Epic Fudge Fail: ISM Re-Releases May Data, Says Applied Wrong Seasonal Factor, Boosts Headline Print To 56

Tyler Durden's picture


One can't make this up.

Remember when the ISM' Holcombe explicitly said moments ago in its 10 am release that "The May PMI registered 53.2 percent, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points from April's reading of 54.9 percent" Turns out he lied, and moments after the ISM released its data, it "realized" it had used a wrong seasonal adjustment factor. Wait: one applies seasonal adjustments to survey data? Like for example when you responded "no" to whether orders are picking up, you really meant "yes" when adjusted for the seasons.

We can only imagine that the ISM received a very unpleasasnt phone call.

From Bloomberg:


In other words, blame the complete data revision on... warmer weather.

And just like that, we have even more confirmation that all the "economic data" is nothing but Garbage In, Garbage Out.

Here is the before garbage, and after garbage:

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Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:36 | 4816891 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

So release the not seasonally adjusted data and lets see the real deal...

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:39 | 4816905 Relentless101
Relentless101's picture

Exactly. Seasonally adjusted means that I can make this fucker say anything I want. Lick my ass ISM.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:43 | 4816930 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I believe they call that "harmonizing the data" in polite circles.  Goal-seeked, massaged or just flat-out rigged here in the cheap seats.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:50 | 4816954 PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

Yep.  When in doubt go with AEN Methodology.  (Anally Extracted Numericals).

Gotta love Delusional Justification.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:55 | 4816984 SoberOne
SoberOne's picture

Are we there yet?

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:59 | 4816997 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

ISM = Institute of Statistical Manipulation

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:03 | 4817013 SoberOne
SoberOne's picture

I hear they traded five Taliban to get the numbers revised.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:08 | 4817029 RevRex
RevRex's picture

5 Top Taliban Commanders for one deserter.

Obviously, the ObowelMovement wanted to free some of his terrorist Muzzie kin.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:13 | 4817046 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

Every good statistician knows that one must modify SURVEY results according to the season, because PEOPLE give different answers to the same question depending on how cold they are, or if they're drunk, or if they got laid last night, etc.

This is why the stats guys make so much money.  Its really hard to get this exactly correct.!

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:28 | 4817092 StacksOnStacks
StacksOnStacks's picture

I'd hate to be the one that takes the fall for this... they'll probably get a consultant position making 500k/year.  Poor bastard!

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:28 | 4817093 Pairadimes
Pairadimes's picture

Maybe its time for a few statisticians to join their bankster allies plummeting out of highrise office windows.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 17:00 | 4818012 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

"Wait a second, dad, ...it wasn't a D minus I got in math...it's an A+....I made a mistake using the wrong calucator numbers.........Honest."

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:03 | 4817015 RevRex
RevRex's picture

Seasonal factor....heh heh heh

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:08 | 4817030 WhyDoesItHurtWh...
WhyDoesItHurtWhen iPee's picture

Did someone fuck-up and not run the numbers past the right eyeballs ?

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:18 | 4817062 cro_maat
cro_maat's picture

No, the first release is to take the premium out of the call options. The second revised anally adjusted release is to lock in the guaranteed profits for the HFT shops.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:26 | 4817087 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

This is all a big setup for the 325k NFP report Friday followed closely by a 25 bil cut in QE next month in an attempt to stave off a collapse in yields.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:29 | 4817094 nickels
nickels's picture

Just imagine the amount of money that was made today by the cronies that were "in" on the phony data switcheroo! Congressional investigation? Never happen.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:51 | 4816959 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

With the advent of newer technology, I dont know how they could fuck up a simple calculation as such. I guess they didnt bother to verify for accuracy either.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:58 | 4816996 Kprime
Kprime's picture

finding the right column in a spreadsheet can be a biatch

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 20:18 | 4818567 nidaar
nidaar's picture

They asked experts to massage the data, to meet requirements


Mon, 06/02/2014 - 20:19 | 4818570 nidaar
nidaar's picture


Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:46 | 4816935 pods
pods's picture

Well I see that they have doubled down on stupid.  Good to know.

Can't wait till the new "carbon" rules hit the economy.  That outta be good for a boost.

And to think, this global warming was almost letting me grow some bananas. <sigh>


Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:51 | 4816961 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

The third and final question... what is your favorite color?

Red.  No, BLUE!  AAAaaaaaaa!!!

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:51 | 4816963 john39
john39's picture

>>carbon rules


the modern version of 'all the wood in the royal forest belongs to the king'... no heat for the peasants...

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:25 | 4817083 john39
john39's picture

meanwhile the figurehead queen proposes a law to force owners to allow fracking on private land:


so it looks like this whole freedom charade thing is just about over...  back to open brutality on the old human farm.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:56 | 4817227 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

WTF is this, 1776!?

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:58 | 4816992 Kprime
Kprime's picture

you just need the new GMO, seasonally adjusted, seeds.  I hear they are growing these bannas in alaska this summer.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:40 | 4816911 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

We're going to infinity+1, wait a minute, forgot the other seasonal adjustment, make that infinity+4.  It's all good.  We really do know what we're doing even though we never demonstrate it.

- The Gov Beast

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:45 | 4816933 piceridu
piceridu's picture

The pen is indeed mightier than the sword.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:46 | 4817177 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

I voted no for the seansonal adjustment before I voted yes.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:47 | 4817185 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

"Tell me why I don't like Mondays....."


Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:37 | 4816900 -.-
-.-'s picture

It's a good Monday

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:41 | 4816915 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Bastille Day is on a Monday this year.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:38 | 4816901 PlusTic
PlusTic's picture

fukkin liars...they will go to any length to manipulate the reality...

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:47 | 4816946 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

you say tomatoe...

i say tomato...

lets call the whole thing off...


banana republic....


Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:38 | 4816903 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

So they revised the already revised fake data.


Ok noted.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:41 | 4816920 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

move along now and DONT buy gold

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:50 | 4816953 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

yes, yes...

me no buy real money...

thank you comrade kilguy...

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:03 | 4817012 Central Wanker
Central Wanker's picture

Defer your gold buying until end of June. Then buy with both hands and back up the truck.

Got to align your buying strategy with the shorting pattern of the banksters. 

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:34 | 4817116 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

dollar cost averaging.

like clockwork via the attack times and the data releases...

fucking MoneyChangers r so predictable.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:39 | 4816906 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

They don't even care to hide the in your face propoganda any longer as long as the robots are happy life is good.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:48 | 4816949 pods
pods's picture

I used to think that we were progressing towards a real life matrix.

Sadly, I have come to realize that we have been there for some time.


Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:54 | 4816977 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

A vision of a  boot stomping on the face of humanity forever comes to mind.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:49 | 4816951 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

The only entertainment I get from this any more is trying to imagine how it actually went down behind the scenes.  Elites blowing their stacks, uncomfortable phone calls being made, etc.  Here's how I imagine this one went down:

10:30am, a phone rings....

"Hello, Institute for Supply Management"

"That number sucks, change it.  NOW!"

"Yes, Madame Chairwoman, we'll change it right away.  Any particular excuse you want given?"

"Do I look like I give a f**k?  Just change that f***er, NOW!"

"Yes, Madame Chairwoman."


Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:39 | 4816908 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

Banana fucking republic. No if's, and's or but's about it.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:39 | 4816910 undercover brother
undercover brother's picture

All good. all good.  nothing to see here.  come on people, place your bets.  

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:40 | 4816913 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

i know we must have an agency for Economic Marketing Policy, but do we have an agency for Marketing Economic Policy?

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:41 | 4816917 oklaboy
oklaboy's picture

told ya, now they are mannipluating this shit. Seasonal adjustment to a survey? aren't they supposed ot be real time?

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:41 | 4816921 Karl von Bahnhof
Karl von Bahnhof's picture





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