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Epic Fudge Fail: ISM Re-Releases May Data, Says Applied Wrong Seasonal Factor, Boosts Headline Print To 56

Tyler Durden's picture




 

One can't make this up.

Remember when the ISM' Holcombe explicitly said moments ago in its 10 am release that "The May PMI registered 53.2 percent, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points from April's reading of 54.9 percent" Turns out he lied, and moments after the ISM released its data, it "realized" it had used a wrong seasonal adjustment factor. Wait: one applies seasonal adjustments to survey data? Like for example when you responded "no" to whether orders are picking up, you really meant "yes" when adjusted for the seasons.

We can only imagine that the ISM received a very unpleasasnt phone call.

From Bloomberg:

  • ISM CORRECTS MAY FACTORY INDEX TO 56 AFTER ADJUSTMENT ERROR
  • ISM INITIALLY REPORTED U.S. MAY FACTORY GAUGE FELL TO 53.2
  • S&P 500 ERASES LOSS AFTER ISM CORRECTS FACTORY DATA

In other words, blame the complete data revision on... warmer weather.

And just like that, we have even more confirmation that all the "economic data" is nothing but Garbage In, Garbage Out.

Here is the before garbage, and after garbage:

 

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Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:36 | 4816891 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

So release the not seasonally adjusted data and lets see the real deal...

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:39 | 4816905 Relentless101
Relentless101's picture

Exactly. Seasonally adjusted means that I can make this fucker say anything I want. Lick my ass ISM.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:43 | 4816930 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I believe they call that "harmonizing the data" in polite circles.  Goal-seeked, massaged or just flat-out rigged here in the cheap seats.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:50 | 4816954 PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

Yep.  When in doubt go with AEN Methodology.  (Anally Extracted Numericals).

Gotta love Delusional Justification.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:55 | 4816984 linniepar
linniepar's picture

Are we there yet?

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:59 | 4816997 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

ISM = Institute of Statistical Manipulation

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:03 | 4817013 linniepar
linniepar's picture

I hear they traded five Taliban to get the numbers revised.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:08 | 4817029 RevRex
RevRex's picture

5 Top Taliban Commanders for one deserter.

Obviously, the ObowelMovement wanted to free some of his terrorist Muzzie kin.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:13 | 4817046 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

Every good statistician knows that one must modify SURVEY results according to the season, because PEOPLE give different answers to the same question depending on how cold they are, or if they're drunk, or if they got laid last night, etc.

This is why the stats guys make so much money.  Its really hard to get this exactly correct.!

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:28 | 4817092 StacksOnStacks
StacksOnStacks's picture

I'd hate to be the one that takes the fall for this... they'll probably get a consultant position making 500k/year.  Poor bastard!

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:28 | 4817093 Pairadimes
Pairadimes's picture

Maybe its time for a few statisticians to join their bankster allies plummeting out of highrise office windows.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 17:00 | 4818012 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

"Wait a second, dad, ...it wasn't a D minus I got in math...it's an A+....I made a mistake using the wrong calucator numbers.........Honest."

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:03 | 4817015 RevRex
RevRex's picture

Seasonal factor....heh heh heh

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:08 | 4817030 WhyDoesItHurtWh...
WhyDoesItHurtWhen iPee's picture

Did someone fuck-up and not run the numbers past the right eyeballs ?

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:18 | 4817062 cro_maat
cro_maat's picture

No, the first release is to take the premium out of the call options. The second revised anally adjusted release is to lock in the guaranteed profits for the HFT shops.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:26 | 4817087 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

This is all a big setup for the 325k NFP report Friday followed closely by a 25 bil cut in QE next month in an attempt to stave off a collapse in yields.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:29 | 4817094 nickels
nickels's picture

Just imagine the amount of money that was made today by the cronies that were "in" on the phony data switcheroo! Congressional investigation? Never happen.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:51 | 4816959 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

With the advent of newer technology, I dont know how they could fuck up a simple calculation as such. I guess they didnt bother to verify for accuracy either.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:58 | 4816996 Kprime
Kprime's picture

finding the right column in a spreadsheet can be a biatch

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 20:18 | 4818567 nidaar
nidaar's picture

They asked experts to massage the data, to meet requirements

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg 

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 20:19 | 4818570 nidaar
nidaar's picture

duplicate

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:46 | 4816935 pods
pods's picture

Well I see that they have doubled down on stupid.  Good to know.

Can't wait till the new "carbon" rules hit the economy.  That outta be good for a boost.

And to think, this global warming was almost letting me grow some bananas. <sigh>

pods

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:51 | 4816961 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

The third and final question... what is your favorite color?

Red.  No, BLUE!  AAAaaaaaaa!!!

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:51 | 4816963 john39
john39's picture

>>carbon rules

 

the modern version of 'all the wood in the royal forest belongs to the king'... no heat for the peasants...

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:25 | 4817083 john39
john39's picture

meanwhile the figurehead queen proposes a law to force owners to allow fracking on private land:

http://rt.com/news/162896-queen-fracking-pensions-speech/

so it looks like this whole freedom charade thing is just about over...  back to open brutality on the old human farm.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:56 | 4817227 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

WTF is this, 1776!?

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:58 | 4816992 Kprime
Kprime's picture

you just need the new GMO, seasonally adjusted, seeds.  I hear they are growing these bannas in alaska this summer.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:40 | 4816911 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

We're going to infinity+1, wait a minute, forgot the other seasonal adjustment, make that infinity+4.  It's all good.  We really do know what we're doing even though we never demonstrate it.

- The Gov Beast

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:45 | 4816933 piceridu
piceridu's picture

The pen is indeed mightier than the sword.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:46 | 4817177 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

I voted no for the seansonal adjustment before I voted yes.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:47 | 4817185 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

"Tell me why I don't like Mondays....."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8yteMugRAc0

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:37 | 4816900 -.-
-.-'s picture

It's a good Monday

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:41 | 4816915 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Bastille Day is on a Monday this year.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:38 | 4816901 PlusTic
PlusTic's picture

fukkin liars...they will go to any length to manipulate the reality...

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:47 | 4816946 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

you say tomatoe...

i say tomato...

lets call the whole thing off...

 

banana republic....

enjoy.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:38 | 4816903 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

So they revised the already revised fake data.

 

Ok noted.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:41 | 4816920 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

move along now and DONT buy gold

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:50 | 4816953 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

yes, yes...

me no buy real money...

thank you comrade kilguy...

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:03 | 4817012 Central Wanker
Central Wanker's picture

Defer your gold buying until end of June. Then buy with both hands and back up the truck.

Got to align your buying strategy with the shorting pattern of the banksters. 

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:34 | 4817116 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

dollar cost averaging.

like clockwork via the attack times and the data releases...

fucking MoneyChangers r so predictable.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:39 | 4816906 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

They don't even care to hide the in your face propoganda any longer as long as the robots are happy life is good.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:48 | 4816949 pods
pods's picture

I used to think that we were progressing towards a real life matrix.

Sadly, I have come to realize that we have been there for some time.

pods

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:54 | 4816977 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

A vision of a  boot stomping on the face of humanity forever comes to mind.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:49 | 4816951 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

The only entertainment I get from this any more is trying to imagine how it actually went down behind the scenes.  Elites blowing their stacks, uncomfortable phone calls being made, etc.  Here's how I imagine this one went down:

10:30am, a phone rings....

"Hello, Institute for Supply Management"

"That number sucks, change it.  NOW!"

"Yes, Madame Chairwoman, we'll change it right away.  Any particular excuse you want given?"

"Do I look like I give a f**k?  Just change that f***er, NOW!"

"Yes, Madame Chairwoman."

<click>

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:39 | 4816908 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

Banana fucking republic. No if's, and's or but's about it.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:39 | 4816910 undercover brother
undercover brother's picture

All good. all good.  nothing to see here.  come on people, place your bets.  

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:40 | 4816913 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

i know we must have an agency for Economic Marketing Policy, but do we have an agency for Marketing Economic Policy?

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:41 | 4816917 oklaboy
oklaboy's picture

told ya, now they are mannipluating this shit. Seasonal adjustment to a survey? aren't they supposed ot be real time?

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:41 | 4816921 Karl von Bahnhof
Karl von Bahnhof's picture

Buy!

Buy!

Buy!

Buy!

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:42 | 4816925 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Tomorrow is Tuesday, seasonally adjusted of course.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:42 | 4816926 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Joseph A LaVorgna is never wrong.  Let this be a lesson.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:43 | 4816929 dobermangang
dobermangang's picture

Hand gun sales still booming.

http://money.cnn.com/2014/06/02/news/companies/handgun-sales/index.html?...

Like I've been saying for several years now: guns, ammo, lotto scratch off tickets and some high end cars are about the only things selling well.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:51 | 4816957 MountainsRoam
MountainsRoam's picture

Drugs and alcohol are doing pretty damn good also..

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:21 | 4817071 RevRex
RevRex's picture

That's like saying drugs and drugs are doing pretty damn good also.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:46 | 4816937 huggy_in_london
huggy_in_london's picture

This is how bad things are ... the US can't even get its fake data right.... At least the chinese do it smoothly

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:46 | 4816938 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

What if, just what if, someone knew the number was supposed to be 56 and then released the 53 number, bought the dip, and is selling after the "revision."  Let's prosecute a pro golfer first and not Corzine or anyone else in the govmint.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:58 | 4816995 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I guess they don't have any actual good news to release in order to induce the whipsaw.  Normally it seems like you get two different reports that contradict each other.  Talk about lazy. 

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:46 | 4816939 George Soros
George Soros's picture

If anyone complains about any banana republic ever again...

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:19 | 4817068 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

A whole new level.

The Plantain republic.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:47 | 4816943 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Yield on the 10yr just figured out what is going on....

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:07 | 4817024 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

The 10 yr yield was up 4 bps last night before any of these reports released.

There is a story that the UK is going to cut pensions and this hit Gilts, dragging all other bonds with it.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:21 | 4817072 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

And btw, would not the seasonal adjustment be for colder weather, so it's removal should have lowered the result, not raised it?

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:32 | 4817110 cro_maat
cro_maat's picture

You are assuming that they have only 1 seasonal adjustment factor. They have seasonal adjustments for all seasons. I think this one was th "Start of Hurricane Season Adjustment" which factors in panic buying from coastal sheeple.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:47 | 4816945 tradewithdave
tradewithdave's picture

Algo pre-adjusted for Jean-Claude Junckering... #winning.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:48 | 4816948 undercover brother
undercover brother's picture

People, the level of outright bullshit is astonishing.  the ISM is a survey and there is no mention whatsoever about seasonal adjustments.   They aren't even bothering to hide the fact that they are changing the data now to accomodate the bullish meme.  

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:49 | 4816952 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

It's a survey up until they don't like the responses and then they call in the plunge protection team's twin, the seasonal adjustment team.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:16 | 4817056 cswjr
cswjr's picture

That's close to the truth, actually. Even though this is a survey, they DO apply seasonal adjustments. For example, when someone says conditions are "worse than expected" there are "why?" follow up questions. Suppose someone then says, for example: "Because of crappy weather." Under Markit's methodology, the response would be "seaonally adjusted" upward.

ISM usually uses X-12, but maybe they use Markit's approach when convenient? Wouldn't surprise me in the least.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 14:31 | 4816956 Ivan Nokabolokov
Ivan Nokabolokov's picture

I don't think anybody actually believes any of these stats, belief does not form part of the algorithm calculation.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:51 | 4816958 oklaboy
oklaboy's picture

Tyler, get it right, you can't make this SHIT up.....

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:51 | 4816960 trailsend
trailsend's picture

"Epic fail"; get a life. 

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:53 | 4816964 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

Why even pay attention to these numbers anymore?...

ALL lies...

ALL the time.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:53 | 4816975 MountainsRoam
MountainsRoam's picture

Feels like 1984, adjust the past and present numbers and history to anything you want.. We are heading to very bad place at full speed ahead..

 

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:55 | 4816978 starman
starman's picture

The show must go on!

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:55 | 4816982 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

So is the seasonal adjustments to handle some people having the winter blahs?  The snow was so deep some managers couldn't get their e-mails?

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:56 | 4816983 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

John Williams has been keeping independent estimates (adjusting for changes in Gov. methodology) for inflation, unemployment, and growth at shadowstats.com.  Maybe it has come to the point that an independent private entity (Heritage, American Enterprise Institute, CATO...?) start keeping additional monthly stats as an alternative to increasingly suspect BLS, Census, and Treasury data.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:55 | 4816985 Ivan Nokabolokov
Ivan Nokabolokov's picture

A country which exists on manipulated statistics and rigged markets combined with an oppressive security apparatus, very Soviet indeed!

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:56 | 4816986 marcusfenix
marcusfenix's picture

from a miss to a beat...in a couple of hours?

nope...I got nothing.

just, wow, the bullshit, it's endless, it just never stops.

that's it, just lies, lies and more lies, all day everyday.

 

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:57 | 4816989 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

Call me crazy but I am not sure these numbers even warrant reporting anymore.  Let's just call the numbers "between 50 and 60 all year" and be done with it...they exist for HFT purposes only.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:25 | 4817081 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

That's probably why they do this - those in the know get short at the open, ride the little sell wave down, close out and switch long before the revision.  Pretty sweet deal if you're on the 'advance notice' list.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:58 | 4816994 yogibear
yogibear's picture

LOL, they get the market reaction and quickly adjust to a more favorable number. Real-time adjust to favorable outcome.

Rigged markets on steroids. 

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 11:59 | 4816998 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Is this the change we can believe in?

Besides this pissing me off, I have an uppity neighbor who is concerned that my tobacco plants, watermelon and squash won't "look good" in the front yard. Like it's his fucking yard. Asshole. Meanwhile, he's spending thousands decorating and fixing up his house to impress the in-laws on the 4th of July.

Doesn't he realize that I'm trying to lower property values, not raise them? Some people - like him - deserve the ass-raping they get from the assessor's office.

I want out, and I want out now.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:07 | 4817007 california chrome
california chrome's picture

Yep, they changed and goosed up the numbers in print for both Final Manufacturing PMI reported at 9:45 and the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10:00 EST on Forexfactory. 

Would never have gone back to check what I had already read. Wow, you really can't trust what you read.  Ever.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:03 | 4817010 Vooter
Vooter's picture

The collapse of this economy sure has been AWESOMELY entertaining!

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:03 | 4817011 Kprime
Kprime's picture

Obuthead saw it on CNN and was outraged.

With his pen and phone mighty mouse was here to save the day.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:06 | 4817022 intric8
intric8's picture

This is all going to end violently somehow

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:06 | 4817023 nakki
nakki's picture

Its a survey its a survey its a survey its a survey and when you can adjust and revise a survey what's the point of it anyways. We all know that everything is rigged. However when they can't even input the "seasonal adjustment" to a survey, we are in big trouble. The sure incompetence is truly underwhelming.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:09 | 4817031 PontifexMaximus
PontifexMaximus's picture

should be good for new high?

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:09 | 4817033 Agstacker
Agstacker's picture

The ministry of truth, hard at work.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:11 | 4817037 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

The humorous part is how these number games still get a rise out of the folks here at ZH. We know Lucy will pull the ball as we kick it but we STILL act surprised.

This is how it will go up til the end.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:10 | 4817038 tradingdaze
tradingdaze's picture

Those farging bastages.

 

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:14 | 4817052 moonman
moonman's picture

icehole corksuckers

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 13:00 | 4817237 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

You shouldn't apply wrong seasonal factors.  My mother applied wrong seasonal factors once.  ONCE.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:11 | 4817042 Kprime
Kprime's picture

Next month they will drop the reference to a "survey" and just release the "adjusted number."

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:12 | 4817043 SharkBit
SharkBit's picture

I think one just needs to BTF story and ride the fuckers coat tails because the blatent theft shifting wealth from the lower/middle class to the elite is epic and will not stop until the rest of the world calls time on this FUCKING ponzi scheme which most likely will need several more months to play out.  I wish they would just come out and say everyone on board, we are going to suck this fucker dry.  When the SHTH, every man for himself.  

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:31 | 4817102 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Great post over @ sakar on the Russian strategy ,and timeline for the endgame.

It totally agrees with my timeline but is far better written than I could achieve.

Somebody has thought this out long ago, and is working their plan.

It will not be a merry Christmas for the US.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:15 | 4817047 gratefultraveller
gratefultraveller's picture

This is like the US administration telling it's citizens "Santa Claus doesn't exist" - might as well tell them "Oh, by the way, the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy neither".

In other words, no need to beat furthur around the bush in the future, all upcoming election results etc. can be announced in the shape of "Seasonally adjusted so-and-so won the election/the amount of gold and silver in the COMEX vaults is XYZ".

Not that they haven't been doing it already, so just be open about it.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:13 | 4817049 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

Must get numbers up, must stop QE, must normalize interest rates, must keep stawks going up...Eazy Peazy

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:13 | 4817050 ArmyofOne
ArmyofOne's picture

Money on the side lines bitchez.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:16 | 4817057 ArmyofOne
ArmyofOne's picture

Winning.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:22 | 4817074 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

These guys are fucking pinheads - I mean, how hard can it be to remember 'just make the numbers better every month'.

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:22 | 4817075 walküre
walküre's picture

heads they win, tails you lose

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:24 | 4817079 walküre
walküre's picture

Baltic Dry print 934 on June 2nd, 2014 - unmanipulated data

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:22 | 4817076 RevRex
RevRex's picture

Why do the adjustments only make it go up?

 

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:26 | 4817085 yogibear
yogibear's picture

This only means the government is hyper-sensitive and worried about anything that's negative.

A pin-trigger market that's closely being watched.

 

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:30 | 4817098 LukeWorm
LukeWorm's picture

Second correction coming soon!!  Down to 55.4 from 56

Source: ForexLive.com

 

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:35 | 4817124 dressguard
dressguard's picture

This is pure fascism!!!

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:43 | 4817164 ChargingHandle
ChargingHandle's picture

How is any investor to believe any data release in the current era? These reports are clearly disingenuous and serve only to keep the train on the tracks. This feels like  China. If the data sucks, fudge it so it fits the narrative of gumdrops and purple unicorns for Reserve and the O admin. 

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:46 | 4817179 DadzMad
DadzMad's picture

I was thinking I didn't get laid last night, but seasonally adjusted, I did!  I like this new math!

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:51 | 4817203 Puncher75
Puncher75's picture

These are NOT the Droids you're looking for!

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:54 | 4817217 crzyhun
crzyhun's picture

The Ministry of Plenty concerns itself with starvation. The contradiction is not accidental, nor does it result from from ordinary hypocrisy: it is a deliberate exercise in Doublethink” GO 1984

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 12:58 | 4817231 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

'Tis the season for political bullshit

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!