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Here Are The Cherry-picked ISM Revisions
While we still await for the ISM to figure out how to update its website with its fudged numbers, here is what happened and made the Institute of Supply Management the butt off all rigged economic data jokes today.
First of all, we wonder if when...
ISM'S HOLCOMB SAYS DROP MAY BE JUST A `SLIGHT PAUSE'
... this too will be seasonally retracted considering the revised data was not only not a drop but a spike?
And we certainly would love to see an explanation why survey responses need seasonal fudging. In any event, here is what the pre-fiasco numbers were, as well as post-fiasco. In their scramble to revise the data, ISM appears to have applied seasonal adjustments only to 5 of the 11 total indices.
We are eagerly looking forward to the ISM's release of both adjusted adjusted number, as well as the baseline unadjusted numbers to which it applied the revision.
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Just a glitch in the matrix, all is well.
pods
Take a look at the intra-day chart for any of the major indexes, and you will see that they were ALL trading DOWN with a considerable amount of momentum prior to the official release of the PMI number. Almost as if the number had been leaked. Then there is a reversal (and a lot of churn) that started PRIOR to the news that the numbers would be revised.
UPDATE: I just got a call from a friend of mine at one of the big Washington DC brokerage houses and he told me it was just the usual congressional front running, which by the way, is perfectly legal.
So, they adjusted the upper measurements, but didn't touch the bottom measurements?
I wonder how ALL of her conversations go.
Jimminey Crickets !!!!!
She's got a "death cross" around her neck from the straps on her dress !!!
If those things broke, they could decapitate someone.....
"I wonder how ALL of her conversations go."
HHmmm.....maybe like this....
Question
"Hi....my name is Becky. What's yours? "
Answer......
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZsxCMPQzqvk
The seasonal - and non seasonally - adjusted credibility of the ISM is ZERO.
O just called the staff into the oval office and is handing out the paddles with the elastic and ball attached, in lieu of their 2nd bonus this month.
Production revised from 55.2 to 61. That is a huge seasonal adjustment. Glad they finally got it right or one may think that US GDP would not match Goldman's estimate of 3.7% this quarter.
We are going to need -5% deflation to meet Goldmans estimate.
'cause only some numbers need to be adjusted??...huh...and we use different adjustment factors for each category??...huh...
and we only adjust until we get the needed results??....huh...and finally... if there is an order the data is presented in, and they only adjust until they get the number correct...well that is funnier than anything on the Comedy channel.
I just figured out whar 'goal-seek' means.
I feel like I am in some sort of Twilight Zone episode.
what is the Feds CPI number, again?
i
When I take the excel spreadsheet and I add on * 1.10 and present enter and copy and paste these columns....oh wait.....weeeeeeeee, we found the number Yellen told us to create.
All done. Time for lunch.
ISM Guys.