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Summarizing The ISM Fiasco: Here Is The Original May "Data", The Revised "Data", And The Revised-Revised "Data"
Confused by the amateur hour at the ISM data manipulation office? Then this table summarizing the first May data release, the revised May data and the revised revised May data (which still missed expectations of a 55.5 increase, printing at 55.4 instead), should explain it all.
Remember: when manipulating data for "seasonal adjustments" you may at least want to fudge all of it, not just those cherry-picked components that help you goalseek a number that does not anger the gods of centrally-planned stock markets.
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Blame it on the interns...
It is intern season, right?
while we're in the mood to revise some figures...can we settle up on those holocaust numbers?
You know, the ISM might actually be trying to fix this "rigged market" by messing with the news reading algos.
I know that, deep down, they're really good people.
I think the ISM really has style in "accidentally" showing everyone what a joke the numbers have become.
With the mid-term elections coming before too long, expect MOAR "adjustments"...
Including the vote tally.
ISM = I Suck at Math!
Ukraine has their chocolate king. The USSA has its Bathhouse king.
It was a disgusting - racist - internet video about black muslim economists!
There is still a lot of work to do before we can get to that. GDP needs to be 8% min and inflation for food and fuel needs to be 0.
You want to spoil a popular fairy tale???
How dare you!
Take your kid to work day at ISM?
Am afraid it might have been take an economist day at ISM
May the farce be with you....
Lets add a couple points to that GDP number while we're at it. Since this is pretty much admitting they are made up anyway
The hookers and blow market segment GDP revision adopted in England is going over swimmingly.
Shaggingly, I would have thought!
Makes one wonder what the real GDP numbers are after the reported -1%. Perhaps taking it positive stretched even the governments fudging abilities a little too far?
Monkies hammering on keyboards.
Coal is being attacked full-on. I'm already seeing bad stats being developed for their mantra to shut down big coal. No specific industry could survive their multi-prong attack of unlimited print resources, environs, and moving price controls. Now they can call a Mulligan, and another Mulligan, and another Mulligan with any data they choose. Co-ordinated with the calculus of a stock move, even manufactured shortages of financing for mine equipment. Carbon credits are the goal, with Algore out front-this is a trilion-dollar deal.
The half-life of information is, well.....half. But, it's half-off tomorrow.
This is why i always call it the LieSM.
what a fukkin banana republic...
just raise the price of electricity, that'll fix it. [/sarc]
'Round these parts (Minneapolis), the local electrical monopoly (Xcel Energy) has been requesting annual 10% raises for years. They get about half their request. Just recently they asked for yet another 10% raise, but not on the electricity itself. They've been ballyhooing how cheap it is to generate electricity using natural gas, so now instead they're asking for the increases to the connection fee. That's right, the wires coming into my house that they haven't touched in decades. And why do they need this increase? Their own filing to our comically named Public Utilities Commission claims they need the 10% increase because they need to pay their shareholders a 9% annual return on investment. And that's why they need the 10% increase to not apply to energy itself, which can fluctuate in cost, but to connection fee. So their rake-off is guaranteed, regardless of whether or not they perform as an electrical energy utility.
So electricity here is now nakedly a scam.
Go solar, duh.
Interesting story, swmnguy. I live in Texas and use Reliant Energy. I have a plan called PowerTracker(SM) whose monthly cost per kWh tracks the price of natural gas on the NYMEX. The cost of my plan (per kWh) has remained relatively low for the past several years since I chose this plan, as natural gas prices have remained relatively low. Well, Reliant Energy informed me about one month ago that they were "adjusting" how my plan was calculated. They gave me ~14 days to switch to another plan or else start being billed at a higher rate on this plan. The effect of their "adjustments" to my plan was to raise the price from $0.10 per kWh to $0.124 per kWh (this is the total cost including the price for energy + fees and taxes etc.). That is a 24% increase despite the fact that natural gas prices have shown no such price increase over that period of time.
FUBAR.
Decisions, decisions.
Which lie do we pretend to believe ?
You don't. If it were a run of the mill business meeting you'd laugh in their face and go find someone serious to do business with.
This is an outrage...This is Bullshit!!!!!!!
So how do you seasonally adjust some of the numbers and not others? I mean inventories seems like something you would adjust to the season if you were inclined to do such "manipulation". So was their "software fail" just on specific components? They really need to do a better explanation of this clown show
The second adjustment was to account for job losses about to happen at ISM.
Wow, just wow.
Maybe if the ISM was in Europe they could ask Google to forget them: http://www.tomsguide.com/us/google-how-to-be-forgotten,news-18871.html
Seriously, does anyone believe the truth and veracity of any of these official numbers? Who collates them, Postal Service rejects or Bernie Madoff's ex-Wife?
Donald Stirling's ex-mistress.
At this rate....the ISM will have its own "Special Report" segment on CNN with updates on a ticker and 24/7 breathless coverage....and the occasional "Live" cut in with reporters on scene.
"STAND BY....THIS JUST IN...."
"CUE DRAMATIC MUSIC !! "
"Are you going to believe me or your lying eyes?"
Angry Gods (like Birds, but no app)
What is that about footing things in multiple dimensions.....
Chairman Obama's party members didn't like the reaction so they changed the numbers.
Soviet style comrades.
Next person that tells me they are "for" ANY politician gets a bitch slap from me.
Spineless, bought off FUCKS - the lot of them. Them and their cunt data douches.
THIS IS UTTER FUCKING BULLSHIT!!!
as long as they are within a couple of points of being accurate and within their fudge factors, it should be totally acceptable
Just how serious is it, for such blatant lying ?
maybe back in 1900 yes but now with technology that we are capable of using, being a couple of points off is pretty asnine, and to correct it TWICE is when that person be fired maybe the employee will end up" killing themselves" with a nail gun
Also, why would May be seasonally adjusted higher? May definitely seems like a month that would start to smooth to the downside (weather)
"What difference does it make now?" "When I become POTUS I'll make sure the economy does nothing but grow, and fast too. No worries!" "Just vote for me in 2016." Signed Hillary
5 yr plans have a only month life span these days
I think they use a random number generator and Ouija board.
This is more like what it resembles:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jP6sTG3Yxk&feature=youtu.be&t=2m49s
Blame the weather:
"The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for seasonal adjustments (PMI®, New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries) is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays."
http://www.ism.ws/about/MediaRoom/newsreleasedetail.cfm?ItemNumber=24121
Here's the detail on how they adjust the numbers:
http://www.ism.ws/about/MediaRoom/newsreleasedetail.cfm?ItemNumber=24026
Come on guys, it's Monday. Things got wild at the ISM frat house this past weekend. Give em a break. Bradley has a fucking hangover from hell that no amount of coffee or asprin is going to fix. The room is still spinning (and so are the numbers).
If you did this shit for a living, you would drink until you were stupid incapacitated too. Bradley's life is a cascade of disconnected events, each more senseless than the last.
Just one more remark from one of you, just one, and Bradley just might, well, you know...
"NO! I will not go out there again to say the number is 55.5!!" "I have a reputation to protect!!" ..."for the cause?...well OK just once more..."
There is no honest accounting left. Winston Smith is in charge of the memory hole, remember? You will be told what to know and what to forget. Unti then I say bong hits.
Walking on Grant and Union...wondering if they will change all the street numbers next.
"The Ministry of Plenty concerns itself with starvation. The contradiction is not accidental, nor does it result from ordinary hypocrisy: it is a deliberate exercise in Doublethink" GO 1984
to throw up (pun intended) an objective thought: the screw up was also originally observed by at least a couple of independent (allegedly) sources - they clearly stated that May's #'s included April's seasonal adjustment calculation and that is wrong.
So apparently there is a seasonal calculation and the ISM could be just a screw up. Sometimes, a cigar is just a cigar.
p.s. Fuck You Freud!
and Bernays.
And Einstein (turns out he may have seasonally adjusted the speed of light and E=MC2).
Time to Start Posting more Hero articles ZH. Seems USSA is running low to empty lately.
I hit that with my 9, she said it was a 7, I came back with a 10. She said 10 was much better than 9. She is looking forward to next month's upwardly adjusted numbers.
This helped for the acronym-impaired (like me):
http://www.investopedia.com/university/releases/napm.asp
Would someone please provide a one paragraph summary of what happened here and how come it is such a big deal. I dn't know how to read the spread sheet in terms of what was done and why it is "bogus."
bad weed
They are an "Institute." {Revision 1}= "Institution."{Revision 2)= "Institutionalized!"
Market still fading. Quick, another revision!
After applying the correct seasonal adjustments, the Broncos win the Super Bowl. Good job Payton!
Well damnit. I was thinking I didn't get laid last night but I double checked after the first revision and seasonally adjusted I did. Now it turns out I just jerked off.
whoever paid for the leaked data must be fuming right now
Bingo!!! they forgot to "take care" of the leaker!!!
ZH mentioned about central bwanksters needing more volatility, you would have thunk they could have come up with better idea than this farce, then again on the other hand....
They don't need to hide it any more because there is no punishment for their fraudulent and criminal behaviour
The market has moved in a range of 10 points for the day. So much for volatility. In fact volatility as measured by the street really isn't volatility at all.
And GDP for Q1 is now 20%.
Honestly, who cares? The majority knows these are just lying statisticians paid off by the banksters.
Today is Monday, but what day would you like it to be?
It wos Clarence Beeks wot dunnit.
In an authentic democracy, you would think a transparent government agency would show the audit trail to explain how such a change could happen so late and so quick. Then we could see an innocent error and a great cross-checking regime, and more importantly, who is responsible.
Since we won't get that, smells like we should be more trusting.
Where is the 'cherry picking' here? The series that changed are always seasonally adjusted; the 'untouched' series are not. Inventories used to be but that was stopped some time ago (i.e. years, not last month).
What is messed up to me is that ISM used to release a file of all the data each month: the PMI, the seasonally adjusted component diffusion indices, and the NSA data used to calculate them. They stopped doing this some time over the last few months; now you have to pay $2,500 a year for it...
The seasonal adjustment factors for the year ahead are published in January. With the data file in hand, you could combine the raw (i.e. not seasonally adjusted) data with the seasonal factors to check they haven't screwed it up... now you can't do that.
I'm surprised ZH doesn't look at the NSA series actually, given the general sense of X12 skepticism on here.
Lets all just 'seasonally adjust' our income come tax time.
If they can do it.......
Equality before the law, and all that.