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Treasury Yields Jump Most In 7 Weeks As Stocks Shrug At Fabricated Data
PMI beat, ISM missed (after all fabrications), and construction spending missed big... so sell bonds and buy stocks!! Today saw Treasury yields spike 5-7bps (10Y's biggest 1-day move in over 6 weeks). Stocks were mixed with Trannies surging once again to record-er highs (+0.5%) and Russell (-0.5%) along with Nasdaq modestly red (S&P and Dow also record highs). Of course all the excitement of the day was the post-ISM reaction and re-reaction (which saw the Russell lose 1.2% at its worst). The USD rose 0.3% (best day in a month) to 4-month highs. Gold, silver, and oil all fell 0.4% or so (reflecting USD strength) as Copper surged 1.4% (presumably after China's PMI over the weekend). VIX was higher and notably divergent from stocks once again...
Mixed day for US equities... low volume once again but a major divergence between Russell and Trannies -
which we have not seen in the last 10-day meltup
Since we got back from Memorial Day, things have not been going well for the "growthy" Russell 2000...
"most shorted" names sold off notably today (just like Friday) and have recovered all the squeeze from pre-Memorial Day...
But bonds saw selling all day - except the flush after the initial weak ISM
VIX remains decoupled from last week's exuberance...
But JPY caught up and Treasuries appear to be trying to...
The USD rose 0.3% today -its best best in a month - to the highest in 4 months...
And the USD strength is pressuring commodities (aside from Copper which surged on the back of China PMI we presume).
The day across stocks, bonds, and gold as ISM hit and adjusted...
Charts: Bloomberg
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I'd say something about which way rates are going to go, but I'd be wrong...
Oh c'mon, we want you to!
Rates are going up cause there's a massively epic and otherwise really big nasty liquidity crisis looming on the horizon now.
So, no liquidity means nobody got no money so no bonds bought, eh!
It's not a banana, it's an ARM..
This is a Rambo market.
Can’t be stopped.
It’s my own fault though.
I shorted the first blood…
"Let it go... let it go" "Its coming to get you" "They did everything to make this private war happen. They've done enough damage. This mission is over, EllaDara. Do you understand me? This mission is over! Look at them out there! Look at them! If you won't end this now, the market will kill you. Is that what you want? It's over EllaDara. It's over!"
Can we say "Bonds were buying it"
I'd trade evryhting for more 10yr notes in my MyRA. Ain't got much left to sell, my body ain't what it use to be. The day labor guys at Home Depot always choose the younger Guatemalan or Honduran.
Maybe you should wear very short cut-offs and a tank top like the construction worker in the Village People.
You owe me a new keyboard: I spit food all over mine.
AMAZING! Everything catching up the the SPX. Nobody coulda seen that coming. Nobody. *hand hits forehead*
No matter what move I make. I'm getting crushed.
sell covered calls on GLD. every week sell covered calls. reclaculate your cost basis each week and calibrate which strikes to sell at. always sell at your cost basis. it's been working fairly well until last week when gold dumped but my cost basis for GLD is now so low that it didn't even scratch my portfolio.
When the markets in this mood just buy all dips until we get a day with seriously game changing news. First potential is thursday and the Ecb- weak or no action will see a euro ramp and stock drop. Also a blowout nfp on fri coupled with weaker ecb would see a big tapering sell off.
So about this invoice, I could drop it off with payroll, or I don't mind making a personal delivery. Whatever's clever.
Cheers
P.a.Id
As a small biz I've been EXTREMELY tempted to take advantage of low rates to expand, the problem, demand isn't there to justify the debt...I'm not going to borrow money just because rates are low.
But still, it's torture remembering rates as much as 10% higher back in the 80's, like I'm missing out.
The safer alternative, to me, is to maintain a small base short treasuries, add as the 10yr gets to the 2% range, ease the position as it grinds back every 50 bp or so, while keeping the base for the future date when I at least have the consolation that I didn't completely miss capitalizing on low rates.
I did this in 2012, scaling in heavier as it fell to the 1.6% mark, it worked out well.
There's the possibility that we're the new Japan, if so, fine, I still make gains swinging that 2% mark as I wait.
If rates get insane, well below 1.5% or something like that, then fuck it, I may yield to temptation and take a biz loan if I can get a fixed rate and cough up a business plan that yields a reasonable return.
I have a strong suspicion my mindset isn't unique, which would explain the lack of small biz borrowing, it stems from the lack of demand, customers with no money don't buy stuff.
Wow...you just figured this out...exactly when again?
What business is this anyways?
Energy prices have doubled in just six months...I laughed when I got the bill at IHOP today. Won't ever go there again. The dollar remains at record lows and it is possible the massive inflation shock this past winter has just driven the US economy into a recession.
Recessions mean default risk are still deep into Code Red territory...the banks have been getting clobbered going into our "wondrous and sublime cornucopia."
Only crazy people have ever believed in this recovery...let alone said we ever had one actually...so now it's a question of what blows the whole thing up first: the soaring prices or the fact that you haven't had a customer in ten years.
"Energy prices have doubled in just six months"
Maybe you meant to say "in just five years"
Over the last 6 months -
Oil has ranged from 95 to 104
Nat gas from 4.00 to 4.60 (there was a huge spike to 6.50 in February that came back down in days, I shorted that manipulated bitch)
Rbob, gas at the pump hasn't moved more than 0.10 at the pump for a year or so, ranging at $3.80.
Coal is down over six months more than 6%.
"Government declares itself worthless. Sends note: 'Call Goldman Sax if you feel this message is in error.'l
SPX 1929...
Almost there.