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US Factory Order Beat Thanks To Defense Orders; Decline Ex-Defense

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Factory Orders beast expectations with a 0.7% rise (against expectations of a 0.5% rise) but this marks the 2nd month in a row after the February spike bounce back that growth has slowed and in fact shows the post-weather-slump recovery is anything but being sustained. Ex-defense, new orders for April actually fell 0.1% (after rising 1.1% in March)... simply put, the entire beat was driven by defense (does that sound sustainable? or like organic growth?) Non-defense factory orders were the weakest since January (in the middle of the catastrophic weather). Also, in the aftermath of yesterday's ISM fiasco, we wonder if the Dept of Commerce is sure it used the right seasonal adjustment: unadjusted factory orders tumbled 4.3% in April.

 

Where did the "beat" come from? Defense orders. Manufacturer orders ex-defense declined 0.1% from the April print (and -6.0% unadjusted). Here are the worst factory orders (ex-defense) since January

 

And the monthly and annual change:

Chart: Bloomberg

 

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Tue, 06/03/2014 - 10:11 | 4819912 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Wait for it.  Wait for it!  And.... REVISION!

Tue, 06/03/2014 - 10:13 | 4819917 -.-
-.-'s picture

Oh, er...uh, erase that +0.7%...what was really accounted for stands out at +1.2%

Tue, 06/03/2014 - 11:10 | 4820079 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Since when is much of anything in that sector related to “Defense” anymore?

It’s pretty obvious we are on the offense.

Tue, 06/03/2014 - 10:14 | 4819918 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Plural ,'cause one revision just isn't enough to cover the stench of death anymore.

Tue, 06/03/2014 - 10:16 | 4819925 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

any do overs on this one?  anyone know?  Bueller?  anyone? anyone?

Tue, 06/03/2014 - 10:18 | 4819929 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

How do we export anything we make in the USA again?

Tue, 06/03/2014 - 10:22 | 4819942 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Just press in the launch codes and it only takes 2 to turn the keys

Tue, 06/03/2014 - 10:22 | 4819937 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Bamm... PM's just got hit...

Tue, 06/03/2014 - 10:25 | 4819948 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I think it's funny that we refer to spending on  the most offensively used military in the world as 'defense spending'.

Tue, 06/03/2014 - 10:53 | 4820052 Gaius Frakkin' ...
Gaius Frakkin' Baltar's picture

Well... the "Department of Defense" should really be called the "Department of Forward Deployment"

Tue, 06/03/2014 - 11:30 | 4820174 thethirdcoast
thethirdcoast's picture

Just use the original, accurate name:

US Department of War

War

MOAR!!!

Tue, 06/03/2014 - 10:25 | 4819951 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

"defense"? Right.... AFAIK, neither Canada nor Mexico are attacking the US.

Tue, 06/03/2014 - 11:47 | 4820223 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

and the "defense" MRAP-toys are being dumped in middle amrka, with a backstory of "excess". . .

takes "army surplus" stores to a whole new level.

Tue, 06/03/2014 - 10:26 | 4819952 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

One can always find an excuse for disregarding the data.

Tue, 06/03/2014 - 10:33 | 4819972 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

One can always disregard the "data". No excuse is necessary. Just consider the source.

Tue, 06/03/2014 - 10:34 | 4819975 SpanishInquisition
SpanishInquisition's picture

Hooray for seasonal adjustments!

Tue, 06/03/2014 - 10:34 | 4819979 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Wow...ugly numbers without the government ordering new toys. Moar woar!

Tue, 06/03/2014 - 10:41 | 4820003 replaceme
replaceme's picture

War, huh - what is it good for?  .6%, say it again. 

Tue, 06/03/2014 - 10:46 | 4820025 nakki
nakki's picture

Manufacturing = 9% of GDP Health care = 16% of GDP. Nothing else needs to be said.

Tue, 06/03/2014 - 10:49 | 4820034 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

As long as you can print money, defense spending IS sustainable. And given the preparation Obama needs before he starts WWIII, our military is going to need lots of ammo and supplies.

Tue, 06/03/2014 - 11:44 | 4820061 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

All US residents, repeat after me!

 

I pledge allegiance

To the Flag

Of the United Socialist States of America

And to the government, for which it stands

One nation

Under Corporate America

Indivisible

With nuclear submarine contracts 

And crony clean energy deals  

For the neo-con military oligarch complex and progressive leftist communists, respectively

Tue, 06/03/2014 - 11:07 | 4820092 Emergency Ward
Emergency Ward's picture

Obama is finally bringing us the Peace Dividend.  Bullish on peace bombs.

Tue, 06/03/2014 - 11:33 | 4820184 Baby Eating Dingo22
Baby Eating Dingo22's picture

No problem

Janet's got a new hungry baby in the waiting

Report calls for huge investment in energy

The International Energy Agency said $40 trillion would be needed through 2025.

Tue, 06/03/2014 - 12:03 | 4820281 Bemused Observer
Bemused Observer's picture

Well, "war spending" IS the time-tested "fix" for a moribund economy, is it not?
TPTB have been trying desperately to get us on some kind of war-footing for awhile now. So you can probably count on more "defense spending" going forward. At least enough to skew the numbers into something resembling positive territory.

Tue, 06/03/2014 - 12:37 | 4820420 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

We need to spend $1 Trillion on defense each year because the last time foreign troops were on American soil was in 1812.  It was England and her troops burned down the White House.  We MUST make sure that they won't try it again, hence the need for $1 Trill/year...Hell, let's double-down and spend $2 Trill/year just to be on the safe side...

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