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Big ADP Miss: 179K Jobs Far Below Expectations, Lowest Print Since January
The post-weather bounce is over in exuberant employment trends appears to be over. After January's plunge, the last 3 months have seen beats but May's data - printing at 179k (against expectations of 210k) is a major disappointment for the extrapolators and presses job griwth back to its lowest since January. Rubbing salt in the wound of recovery, April's data was revised downward. It was so bad, even the permabullish Mark Zandi was unable to spin the data: "Job growth moderated in May. The slowing in growth was concentrated in Professional/Business Services and companies with 50-999 employees. The job market has yet to break out from the pace of growth that has prevailed over the last three years.”
For the first time in a while, we actually saw a job decline in one subset of companies: those with 500-999 worker:
From the report:
Goods-producing employment rose by 29,000 jobs in May, up from 21,000 jobs gained in April. The construction industry added 14,000 jobs over the month, down slightly from 16,000 in April. Meanwhile, manufacturing added 10,000 jobs in May, up from April’s 2,000 and the largest number since December last year.
Service-providing employment rose by 150,000 jobs in May, down from 194,000 in April. The ADP National Employment Report indicates that professional/ business services contributed the most to the lower overall number in May - adding 46,000 jobs, down from 75,000 in April. Expansion in trade/transportation/utilities grew by 35,000, the same number of jobs added in April. The 6,000 new jobs added in financial activities was down slightly from 8,000 last month.
"After a strong post-winter rebound in April, job growth in May slowed somewhat,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. “The 179,000 jobs added figure is higher than May of last year and in line with the average over the past twelve months.”
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, "Job growth moderated in May. The slowing in growth was concentrated in Professional/Business Services and companies with 50-999 employees. The job market has yet to break out from the pace of growth that has prevailed over the last three years.”
The full chart breakdown:
Change in Nonfarm Private Employment
Historical Trend - Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment
Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size
Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Selected Industry
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I'll take Obamacare for a thousand Alex.
Talk to this Occupy Movement lady!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWzAGDOrt0o
Can't wait for the perfume to be applied to the pig.
Take cover! Incoming "adjustments"!
this just in....adp forgot to carry the 1,,,the new revised number is 666,666 ....
I don't want to see the fucking word Recovery anywhere including in any ZH articles that discuss the unrecovery. It makes me want to puke.
What, just into the back of the throat or full projectile/ There's a big difference.
go for distance!
Thanks for the red-dotted arrows ZH! I'd be really struggling to understand the direction of the final month's data without them!
Buy buy buy!
and as usual, the wrong reaction...practically no bid in treasuries...BANANA REPUBLIC!
libor rigged. gold rigged. stock market rigged. treasuries............wait for it................rigged.
elections rigged.....
Waiting for the revision....and then the second revision....and the third....
Adjustment to 331,000 imminent I'm sure....The seasonal factor was done improperly. It rained in Seattle again.....
Gold up for 1 minute, then trucks back down....LOL
GOFO rates are just about to turn back into negative. The banksters are already running out of bullion. This take down will end soon. As a matter of fact, this period of positive GOFO will have been the shortest of all. They are out of stock.
those $15 an hour minimum wage jobs are really breaking out, eh?
Doesn't the ISM need to help ADP with a revision?
The markets will do nothing substantial today. Everything hinges on Draghi's efforts tomorrow. Bear in mind that the rally from May has been largely supported by expectations of ECB easing. This is a nothing number today!
Now for the rest of the data to come in either flat or a beat. Wash. Rinse. Repeat.
the number is always positive. liars.
Wow, imagine how bad the real, unfudged numbers really were...
Oh shit... Dont look now but non farm productivity Q/Q collapsed and the trade deficit was way off to the negative side...
Stay calm..Belgium has our arse covered.
Also this is decent movement across the board http://bloomberg.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=460770&cust=bloomberg-us&year=2014&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top
Dear Yellen, If anything can fix this, its printing more money. Keep it flowing, hoe.
Another
Dipshit
Prediction
bullish betty lou on bloombug hust ststed that the widening of the trade deficit is bullish cause we are importing more shit from China evidently
An unusually cold May...
Do we really need anti-warming legislation?
This, too, shall be revised...
I contend even the April job numbers were not thqat good. We are seeing a big shift to some very unhealthy spending habits. How do we reconcile the April jobs report that showed 288,000 jobs being created and 806,000 people dropping from the work force with economic reality?
My take on the recent jobs report is that as spring comes upon us ever optimistic and more desperate Americans are being pushed into making a decision as to whether to leave the work force or take a lower paying job that is often part time. Yes, people are busy scurrying around, but it should be clarified not at a fast pace. The question then arises as to how this will spill over to economic policy. More on this subject in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/05/reconciling-april-jobs-report-wit...
How come when I look at the first bar chart I see a flat line but all of the MSM analysts see a rocket taking off???
To make even more of a circus atmosphere CNBC and Bloomberg needs to have a giant sentiment meter in the background so when ADP releases the numbers they can revise them real-time like the ISM numbers.
If you don't like the numbers we can change them real-time.
This is not your father's stock market, it's the feel-good stock market. Always going up.
A Federal Reserve PhD production.
How much more of this Kenyan liar you want?
ADP/NFP correlation suggests payrolls come in lower tomorrow near 190k.
Less than Zero by 2015, unless the Fed steps in with QE 3.1...
You're a terrorist if you say anything negative about the Queen's economy.
The FBI might knock on your door.
Working age population in US increases by a net 160,000 a month, that's a net 160,000 new hands each month that need jobs in addition to the people already in that age category.
obamanomics has accompllished jack shit in 6 years, about what you would expect from a piece of genetic garbage affirmative action clown.
What "pace of growth over the last three years", who the hell remembers any month in which this assclown added over 300K jobs per month. Fucking liars.
Reagan had twice the monthly job growth with about half the population. http://macroblog.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c834f53ef016764ba4f29970b-pi
My friend....you are correct on Obama. You are wrong on Reagan. Yes ...there was phenominal growth under Reagan. But it was due to just three things. The influx of cheap energy after the collapse of our domestic supply with the inclusion of Alaskan oil...North Sea oil...and a ramp up of Middle Eastern imports. Secondly....the computer and tech universe was created bringing with it new efficiencies, increased productivity and innovation. And thirdly, and most important of all, Ponzi Economics was unleashed....what I like to call The National Credit Card.
Now....there is no cheap energy left. Yeah, there's MORE energy being found...it's no longer cheap to produce and thus to sell. Technology improvements have matured and their impact is moderating....in fact...are harmful now due to those efficencies through automation and robotics. And thirdly the National Credit Card is tapped out. Obama happens to be the first president to face this new reality. He won't be the last. It does not matter if that President is Republican or Democrat.
Just imagine what this would have looked like without seasonal adjustments
179k appears to be an improvement from last year's 163k
You think by now somebody would be demanding tax and regulator reform to help increase private sector hiring. Guess they want us all on Welfare and other Gov assistance programs.
You don't need to hire if there is no demand. There is no demand because there is no wage increase to afford the gas and food costs. Therefore...there is no excess cash to buy shit that you would need to hire more people to make.
Yep... that is what happen when the top takes damn well nigh everything...
Gotta love the summary: Job Growth Moderated!
These revisions are exactly like George Orwell's Memory Holes where reported decreases were rewritten to be reported as expected increases.
Silly, so 1950s...
Most jobs are not created in "companies" these days. Get with reality.
179,000 minus reality = 40,000
ADP issued, goobermint approved.