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ECB Decision-Day Guide (In 5 Simple Questions)

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As we have heard numerous times this year already, tomorrow may be 'another' most important day of the year/cycle as Mario Draghi and his band of merry men at the ECB appear to be finally cornered (by market exuberance, macro weakness, and excess positioning) into "doing" something as opposed to just talking about it. While we have discussed the ins and outs of the potential for a small focused ABS bailout QE, negative rates, and why whatever Draghi does tomorrow will have minimal impact on the real economy; Bloomberg provides a quick and easy guide to the five things to watch for from Mario Draghi tomorrow...

 

Draghi is desperate to avoid a Japan-style lost decade or two...

 

Via Bloomberg's Alessandro Speciale,

1. Which interest rates will Draghi cut, and how far?

While all but two of 60 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predict a cut in the main refinancing rate from the current record-low 0.25 percent, they’re divided over the size of the reduction. Twenty one economists predict the ECB will lower its benchmark by 10 basis points to 0.15 percent; 34 analysts forecast a cut by 15 basis points to 0.10 percent. Three expect the rate to fall even further.

The majority of economists in a separate survey predict the ECB will become the first major central bank to introduce a negative deposit rate, with 32 of 50 analysts saying the rate will be cut to minus 0.10 percent and 12 forecasting a reduction to minus 0.15 percent. Such a move would weaken the euro, which has appreciated 4 percent against the dollar in the past 12 months. Only six economists see the ECB keeping the deposit rate at zero.

2. Which non-standard measures is Draghi debating?

Policy makers are contemplating a package of measures, and analysts from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to Nomura International Plc expect a rate cut to be complemented by tools aimed at reigniting credit supply. “The combined use of several monetary-policy instruments is conceivable,” Executive Board member Peter Praet said in an interview with Die Zeit.

Longer-term loans to banks conditional on increased lending to companies may take center stage, with a program modeled on the Bank of England’s Funding for Lending Scheme being one option officials have discussed. Other measures up for debate include the suspension of sterilizing crisis-era bond purchases, changes in reserve requirements and collateral policy and an extension of the fixed-rate, full-allotment regime currently scheduled to be in place until July 2015, under which banks can borrow as much cash as they like against eligible collateral.

3. How serious is the threat of deflation in the euro area?

Inflation, which the ECB aims to keep just under 2 percent, has remained below 1 percent since October and slowed to 0.5 percent last month. In March, the ECB predicted it won’t return toward its goal until the end of 2016. Draghi is set to unveil new staff projections on prices, growth and unemployment that may force the ECB further into uncharted territory.

4. What can the ECB do later in the year if the situation worsens?

Draghi said on April 24 that large-scale asset purchases would be justified if the medium-term outlook for inflation worsens. Any program would target a mix of assets to reduce “term premia across markets and jurisdictions,” Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said on April 13.

The ECB and Bank of England have called on regulators to ease rules on asset-backed securities in Europe. That would provide a broader range of funding options for companies and create assets the ECB could buy to supply liquidity.

5. What else is on the ECB’s agenda?

Draghi may be quizzed on the progress the ECB has made on minutes. Officials started drafting trial versions earlier this year and are debating a reduction in the frequency of rate-setting meetings once they start publishing the accounts.

Developments in the ECB’s comprehensive assessment of the banking system may also be a topic in the press conference, in particular in how it may take account of rising legal costs after U.S. authorities threatened to levy a $10 billion dollar fine on BNP Paribas SA for breaching trade sanctions. In addition, the place of Dexia SA, the bailed-out French-Belgian lender, in the Comprehensive Assessment may be raised, after the ECB supervisors decided to exempt it from a stress test.

*  *  *

And so while they are the key five questions... here is what the world is hoping for / expecting...

 

Better not disappoint Mr. Draghi

 

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Wed, 06/04/2014 - 22:53 | 4825592 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Already shorted usd/jpy Tyler. Even if the crosses sell off, my trusty CHF is a hedge!

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 22:56 | 4825600 bag holder
bag holder's picture

<-- Zirp

<-- Nirp

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 00:06 | 4825736 linniepar
linniepar's picture

There is no plan b.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 01:58 | 4825862 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

I was just thinking about something -- 

If the overnight goes negative, then banks are going to want to put their cash in places other than the ECB -- stuff that is "secure" -- and stuff that is easily liquified, and the best thing I could think of is sovereign debt.  

If even a small percentage of the overnights go into sovereigns -- you're going to see places like Spain paying essentially 0 for debt, which will continue this farce almost indefinitely.   

Although if German 10 years go permanently negative, then good ol' Wolfgang is going to be swapping out all of his callables so quickly it'll make your head spin.   

I get the feeling something large is about to pop.   

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 02:10 | 4825879 BrosephStiglitz
BrosephStiglitz's picture

Armstrong did supposedly predict that there would be a "Sovereign Debt Big Bang" in 2015 Q3.  The timing may well be off by a quarter, or two, but it seems likely at this stage when looking around the world.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 06:40 | 4826006 negative rates
negative rates's picture

A fathers day pop would be timely.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 23:06 | 4825627 Freebird
Freebird's picture

Do you think Cross that any of fhe Tylers are interested in any of your little fx trades? Well done though for getting a firsty...

 

(Wnkr)

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 00:02 | 4825727 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I know I am. Along with the question "why nickel?"(the answer is obvious of course) while gold and silver get annihilated (nickel hydride batteries is my guess...anyone else even wonder around here? Or are we all just secretly rooting to be just like CNBS?)

There are solutions. If the Yen gets hammered this week...obviously not good if your Japan...but good if your Yen Cross.

And the biofuels index is also up over 70 percent YTD. (FUE.)

Get ready for your fuel bill to soar folks. "70 percent" sounds about right to me.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 06:47 | 4826011 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Well you guys really are clueless, a legend in your own mind. The nickle is for cold fusion purposes, or free energy, while we debate the climate issue and burn coal and nat gas, the rest of the world moves on to make alternative energy solutions that actually work, like creating energy from heat made by laser beaming diamonds. When will you finally admit that western policys suck dick and are doomed to fail, oh yea, never, which is why we yield to the clock for our answers.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 23:53 | 4825703 SyndicateOne
SyndicateOne's picture

Who cares. Stock market is going up. Nothing else matters 

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 22:54 | 4825594 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

He will blah, blah, blah, blah, I'll do whatever it takes, blah, blah, blah, and then do nothing.  The markets will find this extraordinarily bullish and leap upward.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 23:01 | 4825612 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Just.Pull.The.Fucking.Pin

 

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 23:02 | 4825613 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Sucks being Japan.  If they had had the world's reserve currency maybe they wouldn't have suffered a stock market decline while their bond yields fell to zero.

We, on the other hand, will see ever-higher stock market valuations while our bond yields fall to zero.

 

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 00:04 | 4825732 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

" beggar thy neighbor" dead ahead. Draghi will massively devalue...the debt reset is going to be truly epic.

We'll see if Putin attacks. Russia will not last long if oil prices suddenly collapse.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 01:00 | 4825804 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I didn't say Draghi would succeed. Look at the yen over that same time frame. "Phuckin dipshits from Texas again."

It would appear with Loiusianna now one of the richest States in the Union that West Virginia and their truly massive nickel deposit won't be far behind.

I recommend to both they follow North Dakota and start capitalizing a State Bank. They might need to start issuing their own currency soon.

The inflation in North Dakota is really impressive...but at least it's based on incomes.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 06:51 | 4826012 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Red eyes at morning, sailor take warning.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 23:22 | 4825651 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Perhaps more to the point, what exactly is the indication that there are too few Euros floating around and that is holding back business?

Is there some overwhelming demand by businesses to borrow to expand and the money to lend them is not available?

Didn't think so.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 01:02 | 4825807 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

The imminent arrival of the Mongols?

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 22:54 | 4825595 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture
Renminbi clearing bank to open in London

http://ecns.cn/business/2014/06-02/117011.shtml


Wed, 06/04/2014 - 23:08 | 4825624 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Bill of Rights   WTF? usd/cny trades 731 pips off the Sunday close into Monday. I realize it's Friday.

  Have you looked at the Chibor 7 day swaps?

  You're probably the douche that's been dinging me anyways.

  Bill of Rights > 1 NSA year & 5 clown weeks<

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 23:46 | 4825696 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

Hey loud mouth, I'm not your wife or your mom so quell the douche comments,

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 23:52 | 4825702 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Hey! Ya you! Bill of Rights   if you want to speak with me use your mothers tongue

  Show some respect!

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 00:06 | 4825737 Freebird
Freebird's picture

ROTFLMAO!!!

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 00:25 | 4825763 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I realize you've had a few laughs. You might want to short the crosses going into next week.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 00:55 | 4825802 Yen Cross
Wed, 06/04/2014 - 23:06 | 4825626 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

6.  How much will gold and silver fall on Draghi's measures to fight deflation?

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 23:17 | 4825646 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

What in the hell is wrong with you gold wackos.

There is ZERO mention of gold in the article.  Not a single word.

But you wackos have to go around spamming every single comment thread. 

What's the rationale?  Is it some sort of mental illness?

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 23:30 | 4825671 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Here we go with crash peak oil ballistics. Okay crash sink the NSA knife.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 01:59 | 4825869 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

YC, my theory is the gold folks discovered that the only people in gold article comment threads are gold folks.  

The conclusion would then be inescapable, that is, no one else cares.  That, of course, limits cash influx available.  

So they have persuaded themselves that they should talk about gold on threads that have nothing whatsoever to do with gold in the hopes that this is going to move the price.  It's some sort of bizarre delusion or illness.

Bitcoin was and I guess still is probably the ultimate threat to gold oriented cash.  The money flowing to bitcoin doesn't flow to gold and that will evoke rage.

As for oil, well, of course that's a different cup of tea since all of civilization is dependent, so any article at all would be oil relevant, but in general oil talk in these threads is a great deal more restricted than gold talk.  You will not find oil talk (and note the talk has nothing to do with oil trading, since the issues far transcend trading)in the click bait  threads about gold that Tyler provides -- well, hmm I guess I can't say that given I never read any gold threads.  Not interesting, but I suspect there is no oil production talk in gold threads.  

In contrast, I will guarantee you if there is talk of oil production in China or Russia, some gold wacko will show up demanding that it be paid for with gold.

Oh well.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 02:02 | 4825872 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Crash respectfully. I think you think you know it all. You're not on my page. I'm pushing 50 and been there done that.

 I've done well, and am packing my shit for Australia. I can fly a twin engined jet, skydive, scubadive, and work a laptop on the beach. You go get that "peak oil thing". You deserve it.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 05:18 | 4825968 fukidontknow
fukidontknow's picture

You're moving to Australia - good luck with that mate. I hope for your sake that you're also good at fighting as you seem a bit lippy.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 02:06 | 4825875 BrosephStiglitz
BrosephStiglitz's picture

I think anyone posting on here and expecting to move the price of anything (Gold, Bitcoin, silver etc.) is deluded.  As I read it, they are more irritated about the rampant price manipulation and the nature of the markets.  They are also pretty irritated with the nature of the monetary system.  Hence, gold for oil.

Also, getting off topic, but I don't agree that Bitcoin is a competitor for gold.  It is a poor substitute.  Bitcoin has some very good characteristics though.  I see the two as parallel, but right now Bitcoin is slowly being engulfed by the global banking system and it is still a largely speculative asset.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 07:11 | 4826020 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

If you don't hold it.....I wouldn't count on anything right about now.

 

That includes you.....ummm......paper wackos.

 

Be careful out there....or you're gonna get bailed in.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 23:50 | 4825701 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

There's that word again, "Mental illness"  that seems to be the word of the year with the Progressive Libs.

 

The hypocrisy is epic.

 

 

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 00:01 | 4825726 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Good Lord you're off the "Kool Aid". You think I'm liberal? You must be an NSA troll!

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 01:48 | 4825863 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Sort of looks like two words to me.  Mental illness, I mean.  Don't know what progressive libs means.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 02:04 | 4825876 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

   Good luck trading next week Crash.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 23:09 | 4825629 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Dragqueen will do whatever the Squid tells him to do and they will have been positioned accordingly...... Regardless of what he does BTFD.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 01:07 | 4825811 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Gold is collapsing on news that Europe has no will to defend itself.

I think Norway is safe. Sweden's a bitch to conquer too.

Warsaw will simply get nuked.

Berlin is still a sitting duck.

Oh, I'm sorry. Peace Love Dope! Peace Love Dope!

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 02:05 | 4825877 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

Europe is fucked without the United States.  

With Europe's best fighting force having been neutered with "don't be bad and have weapons" nonsense stemming from the second world war, the largest/best prepared military standing between Russia and the Atlantic is France.  If/when there ever comes a day that the US has to leave due to insolvancy -- absent a monser "European" (I use this world lightly, as the last thing we need is some Frog general getting charitied into controlling the new world's military superpower) buildup -- Russia can do what it wants.  

Then again, maybe this is a good time for Germany to get back Ost- und West Preußen.  

"Ok Vlad, heres the deal -- we'll keep the French and British tied up in political nonsense in Brussels for the next 20 years, and you can have all of Eastern Europe back, but we want Preußen.  We cannot look like the bad bad guys in this -- so you have to do the dirty work, but you get back the wealthiest parts of your empire, and we get our old empire back.  Everyone wins except the Poles, but they are used to it at this point."  

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 23:22 | 4825652 Confundido
Confundido's picture

No matter what, bearish gold. The algos will first push it to $1,258/oz, and then it will end at $1,225/oz.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 01:09 | 4825814 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

No, no. "First gold will makes its way to the safety of New York City." THEN the price will collapse.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 02:18 | 4825884 BrosephStiglitz
BrosephStiglitz's picture

Armstrong suspects that Ecuador's gold will be dumped on the market by Goldman to push prices down and then bought back at a lower price.

I doubt they will dump all of the gold though.  They might dump a portion to break the current price resistance level and watch the fireworks.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 23:22 | 4825654 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Did I forget to tell you guys I shorted usd/jpy?

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 23:25 | 4825659 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Is that anything like buying JPY/USD?

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 23:29 | 4825662 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Not really. It's more like shorting the overprinted usd backed euro<via swaps,repos, and backdoor sovereign transactions.

  Any questions?

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 01:11 | 4825818 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Now I'm confused. You're short dollar versus yen? With nickel prices going through the roof?

The yen has gotten clobbered over the past year. Anyone long either that or the euro is a nut.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 01:38 | 4825853 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  I'm short usd/ period.  The massive spike in treasuries should have boosted the usd much more. Oil is going back up.

  This setup reminds me vividly of  1987. I remember the complete lack of caution.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 01:46 | 4825861 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

My theory is USD strength pushed rates up a bit, not vice versa.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 01:56 | 4825870 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

   The usd is overbought. It will go down next week. The usdx is slightly above the 200 day sma.

  I'd watch the 200day level for pivots. I posted the chart earlier.

 

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 02:02 | 4825873 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Don't plan to watch for any pivots whatsoever of any sort.

But knock yourself out.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 02:10 | 4825878 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

      I called the trade period. Trade it or get off the porch!

    Ohh, by the way, usd/jpy should put in a "blow off candle" in the next 4-6 hours. You still have time to get short.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 02:23 | 4825889 BrosephStiglitz
BrosephStiglitz's picture

USD might be overbought.  Hard to call.  Good luck if you have open positions though, hope it pans out for you.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 02:27 | 4825897 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  3 weeks and 2 days. Are you on the chopping block?

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 02:48 | 4825906 BrosephStiglitz
BrosephStiglitz's picture

On the chopping block?

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 03:33 | 4825924 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Junior the $usd is hemmed into the 50% of the 85 move and the 200day avg. I don't have time for your juvenal antics!

  What's your trade? Just trolling the spoos? Grocery money get rich quick?

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 06:14 | 4825957 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

deleted

 

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 06:37 | 4825984 BrosephStiglitz
BrosephStiglitz's picture

@Yen Cross: First of all, don't call me junior you patronizing asshat.  I've been reading ZH since '09 and their article on Goldman getting into HFT. 

Secondly, I have studied macroeconomics and capital flows in great detail at University level.  I admit I am not clued up on the currency markets in general at present.  I have far too much going on in my day and I don't have the free time, or the savings of a 50+ retiree to flush down the toilet.

Thirdly I was genuinely wishing you good luck making cash.  So I am unsure where the hostility came from.

What's my trade?  Bitcoin.  I called the initiation of a rally on the boards here the other day.  I have made over 20% on my total assets in the space of a few weeks.  I sold out of the market at 680 USD/BTC.  It has since dropped ~5%.  I might reinitiate a trade, I might not.  Later next month I might consider doing some currency trading as I expand my base of operations and at that point I will research in more detail. 

I also called Russian equities (unhedged against currency moves) as an incredible opportunity, but could not personally take advantage of the trade because market entry was difficult.  Last month they were the best performing asset class, as posted in an earlier ZH article.

I don't like forex trading in general because I do not like assuming leverage and as I am still young and didn't have the benefit of 4 decades of unchecked economic growth.  I don't have thousands of dollars cash sat around in a bank account. 

My generation got sold out by yours to live like kings and keep the good times rolling.  We study harder, work longer and get paid less in real terms than you ever could have ever of dreamed of at our age and at this point I am fighting fires and assuming risk as a matter of necessity before the whole house of cards comes tumbling down.

So now that you have thrown my original compliment to you (good luck on your positions) back in my face.  All that is left to say, is fuck you.

Final edit: And if you think I am BSing in the above go back through my comments, check the time stamps and check the market data.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 06:42 | 4826007 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

Great retort Bro (c:

FX does NOT take a alot of money to commence.

I trade it professionally. Manage several blocks of clients.

My monthly goal is 5% gain - using as little margin as I can. (Usually 1-2% tops)....

Having realistic goals and taking small profits/being in longer trades, deep in the money/profit stopped - as I am now with a long USD/CAD trade - is the way to go.

My clients call it "comfortable trading" - I call it downright boring.

My broker is based out of Sydney AU - which means I can hedge, and no FIFO over there....wonderful.

One can start an FX account with several grand.....but you can ramp up/practice on demos first (all free)....

Look into it....

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 07:02 | 4826017 BrosephStiglitz
BrosephStiglitz's picture

Yeah.  I might just do that.  I am pretty risk averse by nature, so investing in generally is something I only do when a fairly obvious opportunity opens up.

In the last two years I have invested six times in total.  The average return on my investments was ~32.5%.  But my first few were chump change.  As the world gets increasingly risky I have realized that assuming risk is now a matter of sink, or swim.

When I get a couple of weeks off to understand the macro characteristics of the major players in the FX and analyze their fundamentals I might start trading.  The FX market is one of the last unrigged markets, despite HFT being rampant.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 08:06 | 4826136 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

Good for you on the 32%...doable and have done myself.

FX trading; the "ramp up" to go live with money, takes time and commitment.

Much can be found on here for free to learn how to trade it. I have to keep telling my clients that FX is a whole 'nother ball game.

Let me know if you'd like some links....but here's a few.

www.babypips.com/school

free....excellent

www.dailyfx.com

free...numbers and data

any FX broker has demo accounts. Also free, and mirror the actual market itself.

I also use "coaches"; numbers guys and different forums. The coaches annual fees are dirt cheap (think a dollar a day or less)....and get trade ideas from everywhere...

YenCross is OK - he's just excited over his shorts...lol....and unless he's short the buck yen over 102.50 or so, he's in the weeds.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 06:36 | 4826005 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

I'm hedged the USD/JPY @ 102.00 Long AND Short

Currently - and it's 6:35am here on a bright shitty Draghi-Thursday....I'm stopped at 102.20 on the long side....

Staaaaaaart yammering Mario you fucker....

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 07:27 | 4826040 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Thankfully I can be flat before the fun starts, going to pick up the pieces after.  G/L.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 08:10 | 4826157 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

You too Giraffe....The .10 got the Euro whipsawing....

Dragqueen in 20 minutes....

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 23:24 | 4825658 benbushiii
benbushiii's picture

The only folks Draghi is interested in helping are the Banks and Politicians.  Let deflation take hold so that 99% of the people can purchase things cheaper.  They have worked hard for their money, unlike the bankers who have taken their money.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 23:55 | 4825712 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I love messing with the English! 75% of the English GDP is (service<financial>based)

 What happens when the markets crash? What happens when interest rates rise? Why can't usd/gbp post a 3 year float?

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 00:01 | 4825724 max2205
max2205's picture

It's all Chinese to me

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 00:28 | 4825766 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I get taken to the woodshed, every time I short usd/jpy by the schmuks at Citi ,GS, JPM, Because I'm right.

 I'm short usd/jpy I'll get long usd/jpy at the middle of July. Bitchez

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 00:31 | 4825773 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

With 0.05% on our cash savings, 4% on a mortgage, 6%-7% on student loans, 6%-29% on credit cards; and chasing yield in equities, corporate bonds, junk bonds, derivatives, momo stocks, and agog at temporary on paper "retirement portfolio" valuations while paying out the ass for mandatory "health" insurance - I'd say those banksters have us right where they want us.

Europe gets 25% unemployment, bail-ins, and expensive Nat. Gas.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 01:14 | 4825819 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

More like "invasion."

It is rather entertaining to watch France send their aircraft carriers to Russia though.

How about that election in Syria!

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 00:38 | 4825785 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 My gbp/jpy(short) trade is smoking hot!

  Always let the trade come to you.

 The 200 h-4 is almost toast. Then I can donate moar $ to TOTUS impeachment. ;-)

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 03:53 | 4825936 jubber
jubber's picture

Would have thought that DAX 10000 is nailed on here?

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 04:13 | 4825949 Bernoulli
Bernoulli's picture

060514

Wouldn't today be a perfect day for bursting the bubble?

- Over the last weeks the VIX has been nicely set to a level that GS, DB and the others in on it were able to position themselves accordingly.

- A big bulk of the equities has already been unloaded to sheeps and pension funds and others.

- Then M. Draghi will do something "completely unexpected" to make it happen, and happily take the blame for it later on ("I'm so sorry"). Maybe he'll raise the rates because the "European recovery is well underway"?

- Then all it takes is a little push over the cliff (the first 5-8% of the drop) for the real panic to begin.

COMPLETELY UNEXPECTED.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 05:33 | 4825976 El_Duderino
El_Duderino's picture

Yeah, cut interest rates by 0.10% and everything will be ok. Why didn't I think of that?

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 05:35 | 4825978 GFORCE
GFORCE's picture

Nobody is talking about the carry trade. If the ECB cuts the main rate to 0.10% the eur/jpy as a carry option is OVER. We may even see profit taking on usd/jpy with a rotation into eur/usd shorts.

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 07:04 | 4826018 venturen
venturen's picture

just print your way to hell....the bankers don't care anymore....the stats guys will lie for you

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