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ISM Services Beats; Jumps To 9-Month Highs... They Think

Tyler Durden's picture




 

On the heels of Markit US Services PMI printed a modestly disappointing 58.1 (missing the 58.2 hope and well below the early month Flash print but still 14 month highs), the ISM Services (we are unsure if this is seasonally-adjusted, manually-adjusted, or just adjusted) printed a healthy beat at 56.3 vs 55.5 expectations and rose to its highest since August 2013. Export orders dropped but employment improved - though remains well below pre-weather levels (while the employment sub-index for manufacturing dropped).  

Considering yesterday we exclusively reported that through the magic of seasonal adjustments, Monday's worst ISM Mfg print since February ended up being the best month of the year, we can only imagine how bad the unadjusted data must be. Sadly, we won't know: the ISM does not actually make its unadjusted numbers public. Only those fudged just enough to push rigged markets higher, markets which today have ignored hard data on trade, labor and productivity, and instead focus on not just a self-serving survey, but a seasonally-adjusted survey. 

 

 

The employment sub-index rose but remains notably below pre-weather levels of exuberance...

 

The seasonally adjusted tables. Not to be confused with the actual underlying, unadjusted data.

Here is what the respondents said: remember, supposedly one must seasonally adjust these answers:

  • "Business remains generally flat to slightly positive." (Health Care & Social Assistance)
  • "Market is picking up with large construction projects for the second half of the year." (Construction)
  • "Business is steady with earnings and growth in line with expectations." (Finance & Insurance)
  • "Business activity remains steady. There continues to be pressure from rising material and services costs." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
  • "Steady activity in sales and improved margins." (Retail Trade)
  • "Backlog remains strong. Retail business is up. Project based business is also up." (Wholesale Trade)
  • "Additional capital projects beginning Spring/Summer." (Utilities)

And since the economy is improving, if only based on seasonally-adjusted surveys, prices must be popping. And sure enough, here are the commodities reported to be up in price:

  • Beef Items (6);
  • Dairy (6);
  • #1 Diesel Fuel (5);
  • #2 Diesel Fuel (6);
  • Food Products;
  • Fuel (2);
  • Gasoline (6);
  • Lumber — Pine,
  • Plywood Products,
  • Spruce,
  • Spruce Studs, and Treated;
  • Medical Equipment;
  • Paper;
  • Plumbing Supplies;
  • Professional Labor (3);
  • Stainless Steel Products (2); and
  • Stainless Steel Sheet.

And now enjoy your far more costly, if seasonally-adjusted recovery.

 

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Wed, 06/04/2014 - 10:07 | 4823022 PlusTic
PlusTic's picture

it's funny how every fukkin survey beats and the hard data all misses...we have a word for that in reality land, it's called FRAUD!

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 10:22 | 4823042 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

For non-seasonaly adjusted data look at container shipping...

Those ISM purchasing managers must eventually receive the shit they claim to be purchasing, right?

God bless Harper Petersen & Co.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 10:23 | 4823080 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

No.

No, no, no.

You've missed the point entirely. I couldn't explain how, but as soon as I see a logic-based line of thought, I can pretty much guarantee you've missed the point.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 10:35 | 4823116 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Plus, HARPEX is priced in USD...think of how fugly that chart would look in real terms!

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 11:18 | 4823269 CPL
CPL's picture

It takes a village of invisible friends, to carry all those invisible goods to the empty market to sell nothing by the pound at Prime+2% with money that comes from thin air.

See!!  Perfectly reasonable; if you are 5 and enjoy tea parties, unicorns and interesting hats.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 11:57 | 4823436 codecode
codecode's picture

looks like it's flat-lined

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 10:18 | 4823044 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

The fraud has been going on for so long that it has become reality in the land of the free.  Inflation has been understated by more than 3% for last 30 plus years.

Reality is so harsh and false reality so pleasant.  The Nobel Prize Winner is a great leader.  And a great bowler.

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 10:12 | 4823040 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

Don't forget about those exceptional car sales in May.

hehehehe...

Cars sold to car dealers or customers?

What difference does it make!!!!!!!!!!!!

hahahaha.........

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 10:20 | 4823074 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Government Motors selling to the government should not even count.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 10:15 | 4823053 Number 156
Number 156's picture

"Is this your final anwser?"

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 10:18 | 4823062 The_Ungrateful_Yid
The_Ungrateful_Yid's picture

THERE is no market, there is no recovery, there is no growth......only Yellen (zool).

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 10:19 | 4823066 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

When you build estimates and forecasts for years upon other estimates and forecasts, the arbitrary randomness we see today should not even be a surprise.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 10:25 | 4823088 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Just think of the ISM numbers as well as unemployment statistics when an epidemic hits and kills hundreds of thousands. Undertakers, grave diggers and crematorias will be booming in the service sectors, while those looking for work will be dead and gone.

These fucking numbers distort perceptions of what is good and bad. Fuck them. This is simply shit to be used for politics and stimulus for the markets to continue their upward churn. The rest of us sit nervously by on the edge of our chairs waiting...waiting for the next big slap up beside our heads.

I just wish all you fools who think you are going to make it big in the markets would just go home. Its all a contrived shit storm created to sustain the fucking casino. Normally I wouldn't give a flying fuck what you did with your money, but this thing has grown to the point that your bad choices are going to fuck ALL Of us, whether we are in the markets or not. Was 07/08 not enough warning for you. Millions around the world were fucked by this shit while having absolutely nothing to do with it. Its no fucking different than if I were to start distilling dangerous chemicals in my back yard, simply to make a little extra money. When the whole thing blows up killing my neighbors and fouling the environment for a few hundred years, what will I say? I didn't see it fucking coming? Really!!?? Fuck all of you.

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