S&P Hits New Record High On Hopes Of Imminent ECB Stimulus

Tyler Durden's picture

Shitty macro data, check; VIX up, check; Bond yields flat to lower, check; Oil down, check; New Record Highs in the S&P 500 - of course. AAPL was up again as we suspect the world of levered momo players are greatly rotating back into this old hedge fund hotel once again (and lifting the indices with them). Trannies closed red for the 2nd day in a row (first time in 3 weeks). Once again the opening dip was BTFATH back up on no volume thanks to USDJPY's ignition and once Europe closed, stocks went sideways. Copper was clubbed on warehousing concerns. With Draghi about to unveil his holy grail tomorrow, the EUR was flat but protection in volatility was well bid in FX and equity markets. Oil prices (growth?) tumbled after chatter of Ukraine-Russia talks. Gold and silver closed flat as did Treasuries - after catching up to equities from last week. Credit markets faded despite the equity exuberance today. It seems simply that no one is willing to sell anything ahead of tomorrow's grand unveiling (but derivatives protection - away from the simple gaze of the mainstream media - is very active).


Whocouldanode this would happen?




Quite an oddly noisy week in the S&P with no volume... looks totally human and normal, right?


Today was the opening dip (on dismal data) ripped higher and once Europe closed, we went flat to lower...


The bid for protection has been aggressive in the last week as AAPL has surged and lifted stock indices...


Treasury yields closed very modestly higher today - having caught up to equities from last week...


But bonds were very quiet today...


Credit markets are fading today...


Copper plunged on China macro and the warehouse probe, oil appeared to drop on Ukraine-Russia news... gold and silver flat


It seems while everyone and their mum is short EUR into tomorrow, the bid for protection in that FX pair exploded today ahead of Draghi...


So while stocks are up, the EUR is down, and all is well in the world... equity implied vol (protection ) is well bid, credit protection is well bid, and FX protection is well bid



Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: The Bears are back in hibernation as we reach back up to peak bullishness once again...


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SheepDog-One's picture

Must hope....for....more.....freemoney....

flacon's picture

FUCK! I'm short this and it's going to be a win or lose by 9:30am tomorrow. Fuckin' economists and central planners with pH Dees from accretided Ivy League Universities. Damn piece of shit. Where's WALSTREETPRO when you need him?

 See that shit?!:



ACP's picture

Meh, the day ZH goes bullish is the day I go 100% short. And leveraged at that.

asteroids's picture

Good luck, but I think being short in this market is impossible. It's too easy to float this market up on any weakness. I've given up on the idea until something "breaks" and the market falls at least 15%.

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

That would suit me very well.
At SPY = 164.21 for such a drop my HVU shares will be 23.74 each.
Not bad given today it's 3.99/ea. Wow, I sure feel so bad I haven't piled a bunch of margin into this.
Makes me feel so much more of the gang to use no leverage built in and ride it all on margin-call risk in a super-rigged market.

Silver Bug's picture

Pathetic, all they know is to print money. Sanity is no longer a word in the dictonary.



Conax's picture

This is so cliche'd it smells bad, but

When your only tool is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Excuse me, don't you mean nailgun?

NoDebt's picture

Note to self:  Don't forget to send thank-you notes to Ben and Janet for the greatest 5 years of my career.  Those guys made me look like a freaking genius.

saints51's picture

It is like taking candy from a baby. It really is that easy.

wallstreetaposteriori's picture

Shit... should have bought European sovereign bond CDS.  

wallstreetaposteriori's picture

Shit... should have bought European sovereign bond CDS.  

pound the vix's picture

Seems like everyone got a call from Dragi but me?

Devotional's picture

guys, this is the crack up boom phase o_O

this is getting serious.

AccreditedEYE's picture

Hedges ALWAYS go out worthless... if these clowns really were concerned, we'd see massive selling volume coming on ahead of the event. How about this: I bet even *if* there is dislocation, it won't even last 48 hrs.. Hell, maybe not even the full trading day

Hongcha's picture

Still short, three sessions and counting.  Good chance of a gapdown tomorrow.

Osmium's picture

Any gap will quickly be bought.

DavidC's picture

Great, but short WHAT?


MeelionDollerBogus's picture



You're so funny. You go and risk margin while sensible people use UVXY or HVU -11x to SPY. You risk so much & gain so little.

A trader can use UVXY or HVU with no margin at all and still get 11x the movement inverse to SPY's moves.

Math's right here: http://flic.kr/p/ikyjpz & is easily expressed as trend 219 = hvu 1/11 x spy.

and UVXY is about 9.12 the price of HVU, though UVXY is usd & HVU is CAD.

Squid Viscous's picture

gap downs are verboten, even the remote chance of significant overnight weakness will be "fixed" by 8 am...SSDD

maxmad's picture

heads hyperinflation, tails hypeinflation!


Alex, I'll take hyperinflation for 500

Rainman's picture

I curse them every day...the human handlers, that is..not the machines

Squid Viscous's picture

It's not too late to buy some Apple, my fiance's slightly retarded daughter says her Ipad and Beats headphones are super cool!

Yen Cross's picture

  FWIW the usdx is overbought on the daily chart. http://i.imgur.com/2G5UGlv.png

  Additionally bonds are pretty oversold on the longer end of the curve.

TheRideNeverEnds's picture

what this means for the EUR is anyone's guess, I am betting in decent size it goes higher from here but one thing if for sure...  Stimulus = bullish No Stimulus = bullish; new highs in the S&P are a given.

valley chick's picture

And what time is draghi going to publicly break the news tomorrow?

Yen Cross's picture

Here ya go "Valley Chick" http://i.imgur.com/Qwzf1dE.png

  Times are GMT-8. I'm headed back to "Antipodian" land this week so times will change.

thismarketisrigged's picture

it truly is fucking amazing how fucking boring these rigged ass  markets have become day in and day out.


i didnt really watch the market today, but i saw at around 1 pm, the dow was up 16 pts, nasdaq up 18, and s&p up 4.


sure enough, 3 hours later, that is where indexes close.


how the fuck does this happen every fucking day.


can we get at least 1 fucking day of volatility?

MeelionDollerBogus's picture


3.99 : hvu (tsx), 193.19 : SPY. Relation: HVU1/11 x SPY = 219 for 12-16 month trend, today = 219.0880
This -11x inverse ETF to the S&P / Dow is like UVXY & the only way it does badly is if the market never, ever, ever tanks again OR if all ETFs & funds are emptied completely, dollars stop being money, etc.
Corzine your... I mean hedge your bets accordingly.